David Maddox: The Numbers Game (27) - Marginal results
Two sets of polling figures have been produced this week which illustrate why general national polls are not altogether reliable sources electoral success.
The TNS-BMRB poll this week was not good news for the Conservatives in Scotland this week ahead of their annual Scottish conference in Perth and visit by David Cameron.
It had them stuck on 18 per cent for Westminster, a mere 13 per cent for Holyrood constituencies and and even lowlier 12 per cent for Holyrood party list votes.
None of these figures had budged a dot from the year before and suggested that the Cameron effect is negligible north of the Border.
The one crumb of comfort was that it left them above the Lib Dems in support, but it would still leave them with less seats.
According Scotland Votes the latest split on the poll Labour 42%, SNP 26%, Tories 18% and Lib Dems 12% leaves the following Scottish Westminster seat allocations (change from 2005 in brackets):
Lab: 42 (+2) SNP 7 (+1) Con: 3 (+2) Lib Dems 7 (-4)
The Lib Dems would lose Argyll and Bure, and Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk to the Tories, and East Dunbartonshire, and Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey to Labour. Meanwhile the SNP would gain Ochil and South Perthshire from Labour.
This is not exactly a massive breakthrough for the Conservatives, however, what they claim is that the real key to whether they are succeeding or not is in the polling for target seats and key marginals.
As most people know there are 11 target seats in Scotland for the Conservatives and yesterday they passed on figures of polling they had commissioned in one of those constituencies - Edinburgh South.
This is a threeway marginal which is made even more open by the announcement by its Labour MP Nigel Griffiths that he will not contest it again.
The Tories got an independent poller to ask a series of questions which came up with the following results:
This Labour Government at Westminster looks weak and divided.
Agree: 75% Disagree 19%
The SNP will never have the power or influence to represent your views in Westminster.
Agree 71% Disagree 24%
Do you think it is important to have a strong and stable government at Westminster to help Britain out of recession?
Agree 95% Disagree 3%
It is important to have Conservative MPs from Scotland in the heart of a Westminster government to defend and represent Scottish interests.
Agree 71% Disagree 24%
My local MP would have more influence if he or she was from the Party of government.
Agree 60% Disagree 27%
It is an interesting use of questions designed to eliminate opponents one by one, which will not doubt appear now in leaflets.
The answers say that people think Labour is weak, Nationalism is irrelevant in Westminster and it would be better to have an MP from the party of government which rules out the Lib Dems also have a chance of winning the seat. Logically, that just leaves the Tories as the only option.
Of course, had they simply asked people which party they will support then the result would probably not be so clear cut for the Conservatives.
The TNS-BMRB poll this week was not good news for the Conservatives in Scotland this week ahead of their annual Scottish conference in Perth and visit by David Cameron.
It had them stuck on 18 per cent for Westminster, a mere 13 per cent for Holyrood constituencies and and even lowlier 12 per cent for Holyrood party list votes.
None of these figures had budged a dot from the year before and suggested that the Cameron effect is negligible north of the Border.
The one crumb of comfort was that it left them above the Lib Dems in support, but it would still leave them with less seats.
According Scotland Votes the latest split on the poll Labour 42%, SNP 26%, Tories 18% and Lib Dems 12% leaves the following Scottish Westminster seat allocations (change from 2005 in brackets):
Lab: 42 (+2) SNP 7 (+1) Con: 3 (+2) Lib Dems 7 (-4)
The Lib Dems would lose Argyll and Bure, and Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk to the Tories, and East Dunbartonshire, and Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey to Labour. Meanwhile the SNP would gain Ochil and South Perthshire from Labour.
This is not exactly a massive breakthrough for the Conservatives, however, what they claim is that the real key to whether they are succeeding or not is in the polling for target seats and key marginals.
As most people know there are 11 target seats in Scotland for the Conservatives and yesterday they passed on figures of polling they had commissioned in one of those constituencies - Edinburgh South.
This is a threeway marginal which is made even more open by the announcement by its Labour MP Nigel Griffiths that he will not contest it again.
The Tories got an independent poller to ask a series of questions which came up with the following results:
This Labour Government at Westminster looks weak and divided.
Agree: 75% Disagree 19%
The SNP will never have the power or influence to represent your views in Westminster.
Agree 71% Disagree 24%
Do you think it is important to have a strong and stable government at Westminster to help Britain out of recession?
Agree 95% Disagree 3%
It is important to have Conservative MPs from Scotland in the heart of a Westminster government to defend and represent Scottish interests.
Agree 71% Disagree 24%
My local MP would have more influence if he or she was from the Party of government.
Agree 60% Disagree 27%
It is an interesting use of questions designed to eliminate opponents one by one, which will not doubt appear now in leaflets.
The answers say that people think Labour is weak, Nationalism is irrelevant in Westminster and it would be better to have an MP from the party of government which rules out the Lib Dems also have a chance of winning the seat. Logically, that just leaves the Tories as the only option.
Of course, had they simply asked people which party they will support then the result would probably not be so clear cut for the Conservatives.
Labels: Conservatives, David Maddox, marginals, polls, target seats
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