Eddie Barnes - Cameron's European nightmare

David Cameron must be wondering this afternoon whether the political Gods vote Labour. On the eve of a party conference which has been months in the planning, and which will be watched intensely by voters across the country as they weigh up the look of their next likely government, the toxic issue of Europe suddenly blows up in his face.

With the news emerging that Ireland has backed the Lisbon treaty, it now looks as the matter will be ratified before the General Election. Cameron is committed to holding a pre-ratification referendum, but still won't say what he'll do if it's ratified by the time he gets in. Ken Clarke says this morning it would be a "disaster" if that issue became the dominant theme of the conference. Disaster? Who mentioned disaster?

Cameron has now issued a statement, repeating his position. "If the Treaty is ratified and in force in all Member States, we have repeatedly said we would not let matters rest there. But we have one policy at a time, and we will set out how we would proceed in those circumstances if, and only if, they happen," he says.

The Cameron position pre-conference appears to be along the lines of "I've yet to make up my mind, and that position is final". Not for the first time, Europe is causing the party a nasty headache. Not what Team Cameron wanted.

Eddie Barnes: Love-bombing the LibDems - Scottish version

The LibDems can hardly move at present without some supposed political opponents attempting to hug them close. With David Cameron trying down south to become Nick Clegg's new best friend, now it is Alex Salmond's turn this morning to suck up close to the men in yellow.

At a conference on devolution this morning, the First Minister has declared that he is "minded" to propose putting a so-called 'multi-option' question to voters in his proposed referendum so that, along with the status quo and independence, voters would be asked whether they would like the Scottish parliament to have more powers. "That seems to me to be an entirely reasonable, consensual and democratic way forward," he declares. The development this morning appears to be that the multi-option referendum is now the SNP's preferred choice of question.

Labour and the Tories won't buy it, but - as we have been reporting over the last two days - the Liberals are swithering all over the place about whether to back the referendum or not. On the one hand, they don't want to help out the SNP by handing them their referendum. On the other, they are not happy at all about being cast by the SNP as part of an arrogant Unionist alliance, denying the people a say. Now Salmond is effectively offering to meet them half-way - if you won't go for dinner, at least let me buy you a drink, he suggests.

Canny politics.....now let's see if Scottish LibDem leader Tavish Scott pukkers up. The lean Shetlander is insistent that he will not back the bill under any circumstances, but the pressure is mounting from within his party. Interesting times.

David Maddox: Troubled times for Tavish

The Scotsman front page today by my colleague Gerri Peev has certainly caused a stir in the otherwise quiet corridors of Holyrood.
The idea that the Lib Dems are considering backing a referendum has come as a surprise, although the party's vacillating record of changing its mind on various issues means that we should have half expected it.
The interesting aspect here is that Tavish Scott, the Scottish leader, has been adamantly against a referendum in the current economic circumstances. Most people believe that privately he is against one in almost all circumstances bar an outright SNP majority when his party's opposition would make no difference anyway.
What seems to be happening here is that Mr Scott and the Scottish party are being bounced into supporting the referendum by the UK party leadership, in one stroke undermining the supposed autonomy of the Scottish party in the Lib Dems' federal set-up.
Apparently pressure is coming from Vince Cable, the man most people want to be chancellor, who is now the Twickenham MP but was a Glasgow councillor.
What seems to be driving this is that the Lib Dems think a Tory victory will undermine support for the Union in Scotland and they believe that with Labour rapidly disintegrating they are the only party capable of saving the UK. They believe that the SNP can win an outright majority in 2011, which in my view at least, shows a surprising lack of understanding of the consequences of the Holyrood electoral system which mitigates against any majority.
Call a referendum now and you don't have to fight one at a time more convenient for the Nats.
It all echoes former Labour leader Wendy Alexander's ill-judged: "Bring it on!"
But this is bad for Mr Scott. During the late summer he lost the confidence of his Scottish party over his views on keeping Megrahi locked up in Scotland, now the UK leadership seems to question his judgement on a referendum.

Chris Mackie: Bring it on (or maybe not)

If this interesting snippet from James McIntyre of the New Statesman (http://www.newstatesman.com/2009/06/brown-labour-minister) is to be believed, it would certainly put the Labour cat amidst the SNP pigeons:

"Meanwhile, a separate idea, bold if controversial, is quietly being considered for the same election day: a referendum in Scotland on independence. This reflects a rueful and secretly held sense among some in New Labour that devolution was a mistake which emboldened nationalists and strengthened the hand of Alex Salmond, the Scottish National Party’s leader and Scotland’s First Minister. Brown has long fretted about British identity and about how people increasingly define themselves as English, Welsh and Scottish, rather than as British.
A referendum would call the Nationalists’ bluff. It would be a high-risk strategy. But Brown would be gambling on the majority of Scots who continue to recognise that the social, economic and political union remains much more than the sum of its parts."

While no doubt being supported by Wendy Alexander ("bring it on" etc), I agree that the move would carry extreme risk for a Prime Minister not known for his bold decisions. On the plus side for Brown, taking control of the referendum would allow him to dictate its terms and could embolden the "no" campaign before the SNP has a chance to make inroads at the Westminster elections. The likely upsurge in the turnout would also help to get the Labour vote out - something it manifestly had problems with in the Euro elections.

Looking at it with a more Machiavellian eye, if we assume the Labour party expects to lose the next election, a referendum on election day could give an incoming Team Cameron the mother of all constitutional headaches to deal with should the Scottish people vote "yes".

But is he really brave enough to take the Nationalists on in this way? I suspect he has neither the gumption nor the resources to fight two battles simultaneously, especially with the stakes so high. After all, even if he won the referendum, it is unlikely he would be in office to enjoy the political benefits it would bring - those, you suspect would be David Cameron's to savour.

David Maddox: The numbers game (5)

I have just been sent the latest Scottish sample results from the most recent UK Populus poll.
Admittedly a sample of 127 people is hardly much of an indicator to write home about, but the SNP member who sent it me clearly enjoyed the effect the results would have in a UK general election.

Conservatives 11% Labour 27% Liberal Democrats 18% SNP 43%

According to Electoral Calculus this would mean the following Westminster seat allocation:

Conservative 0 (-1) Labour 7 (-34) Lib Dems 8 (-3) SNP 44 (+38)

Now that would be a result that would bring about a referendum on independence!

David Maddox: John Farquhar Munro found (2)

Had yet another update from the Lib Dems on their missing pro-referendum on independence MSP John Farquhar Munro (pictured)- Holyrood's international man of mystery.
As you will have seen from the earlier blogs he is missing today's vote on the principle of a referendum, where he would have probably gone against the party anti-referendum line, because he has important business in Germany.
The original suggestion from the Lib Dem press office was that he was there for health reasons, which made chief whip Mike Rumbles rejection of his original request a look a little hard hearted.
But, the latest update is that he is in Germany to be a special guest speaker at the MDS foundation's European patient and family forum in Germany - it was arranged around Christmas time apparently.
According to its website the foundation is "a multi disciplinary, international organization devoted to the prevention, treatment, and study of the myelodysplastic syndromes."
For the non-medically qualified among you, myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are a group of diseases in which the production of blood cells by the bone marrow is disrupted.
So he was there "for health reasons," but not his own health, which, although it is nice to know he is not seriously ill, makes it all the more surprising that he was given such an important parliamentary day off to go there.

David Maddox: John Farquhar Munro found

Well the mystery has been solved. One SNP spin doctor suggested to me that there may be a Nationalist search party looking for John Farquhar Munro (pictured) combing his Ross, Skye and Inverness West constituency to try to get him to Holyrood to support them in the referendum vote.
But, it seems they may be looking in the wrong place.
A Lib Dem spin doctor has just e-mailed to say that JFM is in Germany for health reasons, which is a fair excuse to be away and certainly different to the last occasion when he was given leave to bury a cow.
However, they are a hard bunch in the Lib Dems. According to the Lib Dem press office, chief whip Mike Rumbles actually turned down the original request to be away, even though it was health related. In the end it was party leader Tavish Scott who gave permission for his absense.
But the official line from the Lib Dems, given the nature of today's vote and JFM's support for a referendum against party policy, is that his absense is "a happy coincidence."

David Maddox: Where is John Farquhar Munro?

John Farquhar Munro (pictured) is a quiet man and not one who is often looked for these days.
But his absence is causing great excitement in the chamber at the moment where the SNP's alleged failed record in government is being debated.
Mr Farquhar Munro is a mentor for former UK Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy and the only MSP for whom Gaelic is a first language, but neither of these things are the cause of the agitation.
According to the Liberal Democrats he asked to be excused on Friday for an "unavoidable" constituency matter, they cannot say what it was.
But hold on a minute, say the Nationalists, is it a coincidence that Friday was the day JFM embarrassed the party when he announced that he would support holding a referendum, just days after Scottish Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott said his party would vote against one?
And today the Lib Dems have put down a clever amendment to the SNP failures debate (sponsored by Labour) which would allow MSPs a chance to have a vote on whether a referendum should go ahead, in the knowledge that the three unionist parties would vote against.
It is after all pretty unusual for an MSP to be allowed to have the day off on a Thursday, the only full day of debate and votes in the week.
Tory MSP Murdo Fraser has suggested that JFM may have been locked in a cupboard by Lib Dem chief whip and former army major Mike Rumbles.
Look out on the Steamie for further updates if we find out where the elusive MSP has got to.