David Maddox: The Numbers Game (28) - What is the Cameron effect?

Fascinating Yougov poll around today with the Scottish sample a decent size at 562. It gives the first taste of political opinion since David Cameron's visit to Scotland for the Tory conference in Perth and the back end of last week.

Con 21 Lab 37 Lib Dem 15 SNP 21

According to Scotland Votes, the Scotsman's election calculation partner website, this provides the following results in a general election for Scotland (changes from 2005 in brackets) :

Con 2 (+1) Lab 39 (-2) Lib Dem 11 (no change) SNP 7 (+1)

Amazingly different polling results to 2005 but very little change with just Ochil and South Perthshire going from Labour to the SNP with Labour also losing Dumfries and Galloway to the Tories.
But the important thing is that makes a lot more results very close and could see many more seats changes hands.
This is shown by the different prediction from Electoral Calculus:

Con 4 (+3) Lab 39 (-2) Lib Dem 9 (-2) SNP 7 (+1)

It suggests that the Tories also gain Argyll and Bute and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk from the Lib Dems on top of the gain for them and the SNP predicted above.

But what this poll really shows is that the Tories are in play for all 11 targets, including ones held by the SNP such as Angus and Perth and North Perthshire. But it does not really take the Tories beyond the margins of support they have been polling in for a long time now, which leaves a question mark over the Cameron tartan effect of last week even though 21 per cent is at the high end of Conservative support in Scotland.
It does illustrate again how the boundaries work in favour of Labour and the Lib Dems and against the Conservatives and SNP.
But what it does is suggest that in Westminster terms at least the SNP vote is collapsing and that they are leaking support to Labour.
If this is true it is a victory for the Labour tacticians in Scotland who have relied on what they believe is an innate anti-Toriness in Scotland and are trying to squeeze the Nationalist vote by portraying a Westminster election as a competition between the two big parties.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (27) - Marginal results

Two sets of polling figures have been produced this week which illustrate why general national polls are not altogether reliable sources electoral success.
The TNS-BMRB poll this week was not good news for the Conservatives in Scotland this week ahead of their annual Scottish conference in Perth and visit by David Cameron.
It had them stuck on 18 per cent for Westminster, a mere 13 per cent for Holyrood constituencies and and even lowlier 12 per cent for Holyrood party list votes.
None of these figures had budged a dot from the year before and suggested that the Cameron effect is negligible north of the Border.
The one crumb of comfort was that it left them above the Lib Dems in support, but it would still leave them with less seats.
According Scotland Votes the latest split on the poll Labour 42%, SNP 26%, Tories 18% and Lib Dems 12% leaves the following Scottish Westminster seat allocations (change from 2005 in brackets):

Lab: 42 (+2) SNP 7 (+1) Con: 3 (+2) Lib Dems 7 (-4)

The Lib Dems would lose Argyll and Bure, and Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk to the Tories, and East Dunbartonshire, and Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey to Labour. Meanwhile the SNP would gain Ochil and South Perthshire from Labour.

This is not exactly a massive breakthrough for the Conservatives, however, what they claim is that the real key to whether they are succeeding or not is in the polling for target seats and key marginals.
As most people know there are 11 target seats in Scotland for the Conservatives and yesterday they passed on figures of polling they had commissioned in one of those constituencies - Edinburgh South.
This is a threeway marginal which is made even more open by the announcement by its Labour MP Nigel Griffiths that he will not contest it again.
The Tories got an independent poller to ask a series of questions which came up with the following results:

This Labour Government at Westminster looks weak and divided.
Agree: 75% Disagree 19%

The SNP will never have the power or influence to represent your views in Westminster.
Agree 71% Disagree 24%

Do you think it is important to have a strong and stable government at Westminster to help Britain out of recession?
Agree 95% Disagree 3%

It is important to have Conservative MPs from Scotland in the heart of a Westminster government to defend and represent Scottish interests.
Agree 71% Disagree 24%

My local MP would have more influence if he or she was from the Party of government.
Agree 60% Disagree 27%

It is an interesting use of questions designed to eliminate opponents one by one, which will not doubt appear now in leaflets.
The answers say that people think Labour is weak, Nationalism is irrelevant in Westminster and it would be better to have an MP from the party of government which rules out the Lib Dems also have a chance of winning the seat. Logically, that just leaves the Tories as the only option.
Of course, had they simply asked people which party they will support then the result would probably not be so clear cut for the Conservatives.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (26) - Mind the gap

Following up from my post late last week on the Yougov samples, I have been handed the data for the Scottish samples of the last three Yougov polls. It makes fascinating reading.

Con: 22.3% Lab: 35.6% Lib Dems: 13.3% SNP: 23.3%

This certainly makes interesting reading regarding signs of a potential comeback for the Tories in Scotland and the problems the Nationalists have recently experienced. Having said that the difference of just 1% is hard to believe.
Now, the usual health warning about smallish samples being averaged out applies here, but what is interesting is that the total number of people asked is 566.
This larger than the sample which the SNP keep quoting from a recent Ipsos Mori poll of those who would definitely vote, which was around 500 and put them two points ahead. They were behind if you took the total number.

I have run the above numbers through the two online predictors now available.
ScotlandVotes, which The Scotsman is the media partner for and which I will now regularly quote, has the following (difference with 2005 in brackets):

Con: 5 (+4) Lab: 38 (-3) Lib Dems: 9 (-2) SNP: 7 (+1)

In this scenario the Tories gain Dumfries & Galloway and Edinburgh South off Labour, and Argyll & Bute and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk off the Lib Dems.
The SNP take Ochil & South Perthshire off Labour.

My usual predictor, Electoral Calculus, comes up with a similar result.

Con: 6 (+5) Lab: 37 (-4) Lib Dems: 9 (-2) SNP: 7 (+1)

The only change here is that the Tories would also gain Stirling off Labour.

Of course, it will all be different on the night, but the fun and speculation will no doubt continue until 25 March or 6 May 2010.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (25)

I have just been handed some analysis from the Scottish samples of the last two Yougov polls, which comes from about 400 people.
The usual health warning about polls in general and combining polls in particular, but the results are beginning to show a certain degree of consistency.
That is that Nationalist support is going down, Labour is regularly in the low to mid 30s and the Tories are stuck around 20 per cent, while the Lib Dems are in a desperate battle for survival.
The data shows:

Con: 20.5% Lab: 35% Lib Dems: 16% SNP: 23.5%

My guess would be that the SNP vote is probably higher, whereas the Labour and Lib Dem vote is in reality a couple of points each below what is shown in this data.
However, should election day have this breakdown, then Electoral Calculus suggests the following results for Westminster in Scotland with change from the 2005 election in brackets:

Con: 4 (+3) Lab 38 (-3) Lib Dems 10 (-1) SNP: 7 (+1)

David Maddox: Political betting

I received a slightly cocky e-mail this morning from a Labour spindoctor concerning his prospects of winning a bet the two of us have on the next general election.
At the start of the by-election he bet me £10 that the SNP will have less than 10 seats after the next general election.
And, according to his e-mail, after Labour's crushing defeat in Glasgow last night he is confident that I will be handing over a state sponsored RBS note some point next year.
I took the bet because I'm always happy to receive free money and my opinion has not changed from last night.
True, the SNP juggernaut came to a halt in Glenrothes and last night only confirmed that the breakthrough needed is still a long way off. The SNP will struggle to get Alex Salmond's target of 20 seats. It seems a long time ago now since the SNP were passing around a list showing that all Labour's seats bar one would fall to them on the basis of the Glasgow East swing.
However, they will gain seats. They managed to win six in 2005 with a mere 17.6% of the vote, they are now regularly polling above 30% in Westminster voting intentions and haven't dropped below 25%.
The other factor is that the Lib Dem vote appears to be disintegrating before our eyes. The party is running at around 12/13% in the polls (half what it was in 2005) and last night came a dismal sixth with just a handful of votes. Most of the disaffected Lib Dems appear to be going to the Nationalists and, to a lesser extent, the Tories.
As things stand my prediction for the SNP at the moment is 14 seats, four for the Tories, nine for the Lib Dems and 32 for Labour. Obviously, though, the chances are I will be very wrong.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (23) - polls apart continued

Always glad to see that the political parties are taking the Steamie serioulsy.
Following my blog below within minutes I received an e-mail from a Lib Dem spin doctor responding to some of the points I made. It read:

"I take issue with the "Lib Dems are in trouble in Scotland" point - what about the ComRes poll published in October showing LDs on 25%?! Or the YouGov poll showing us on 25%, also published this month.
Also, given that "others" are counted in SNP figures - surely this skews the results for seats.
Also - how are you getting a total of 12% for us?
Looking at the YouGov sky tracker poll - our figures are 9, 17, 24, 16, 18, 9, 10, 13, 25, 12, 12, 13, 15, 10, 15 - by our reckoning, we should be on at least 15%..."

This is not altogether unfair as the averaging of the Yougov poll depends on your starting point. It is also true that the SNP cannot be separated from other others in the Sky Yougov tracker. I think though it is fair to say the majority of that "other" vote in Scotland is for the SNP, while polling of 25% in Scotland for the Lib Dems appears to be the exception rather than the rule.

In addition, even if the Lib Dems are at 15% in Scotland, I would contest that that means they are still in trouble, especially considering their 26% in Scotland in the last Wesminster general election. It leaves them firmly in fourth place.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (23) - polls apart

I have been handed two different versions of Yougov polls today, which make for some interesting analysis.

The first was the Scottish sample (188 people) of the Sun/ Yougov poll.

Cons 22% Lab 34% Lib Dems 10% SNP 28%

According to Electoral Calculus this would translate into the following allocation of seats (change from 2005 in brackets):

Cons 7 (+6) Lab 37 (-4) Lib Dems 6 (-5) SNP 9 (+3)

The second poll I was given was perhaps a little more scientific as it was the cumulative figures for the Scottish samples of the tracker Yougov polling for Sky TV. It gave the following results:

Cons 24% Lab 32% Lib Dems 12% SNP (inc others) 31%

This gives the following Scottish general election seat calculations according to Electoral Calculus (again change from 2005 in brackets):

Cons 10 (+9) Lab 31 (-10) Lib Dems 7 (-4) SNP 11 (+5)

Whilst even properly have scientific polls have to be taken with a health warning, these samples, particularly the tracker ones which represent more than 1,000 voters, do give us some hints of what is happening in Scotland from which we can draw four conclusions.

1. It suggests that the Cameron bounce is beginning to pay dividends with consistent polling in the low 20s for the Tories north of the Border.

2. They confirm that the SNP are running Labour close in Westminster voting intentions but an in-built constituency advantage for Labour appears should limit any damage and prevent the Nationalists from reaching their target of 20.

3. The Lib Dems are in real trouble in Scotland.

4. Just a small switch of a couple of points either way could have dramatic effects on how many seats parties get.

However, there is still a long way to go and only one poll that counts. Personally, I would be surprised if we see the above allocations in the final reckoning. Most people would guess the Tories and possibly Labour would have less while the SNP more. But there is still clearly a lot to play for.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (22) - the Cameron "tartan" bounce?

A little bit of research over the last week has shown that while the Conservatives may not have reached the heights of 50 per cent of the Scottish vote of the 1950, but the comeback from the nadir of 1997 is underway.
The Yougov Sky poll running everyday this week shows from the Scottish samples that the Tories are beginning to make an impression. Averaged out they show:

Con 24% Lab 33% Lib Dems 13% SNP 30%

This would translate into the following results in Scottish seats, according to Electoral Calculus. Please note that 2005 general election seat numbers are in brackets.

Con 9 (1) Lab 34 (41) Lib Dems 8 (11) SNP 8 (6)

Now the Tories as the second biggest grouping in Scotland? That would be a turn up for the books and hard to believe even if they have a minimum aim of four seats. This would actually break their 2014 target of eight seats, as recently revealed by the Scotsman.
I suspect the SNP at least may be confident of doing better than that. However, this does show that the Conservatives are slowly but surely re-establishing themselves north of the Border.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (18) - serving up a bit of Nationalism

Another Yougov poll is out tomorrow (Thursday 25 June) with results from an interesting and quite topical question.

Along with the usual "how much do you hate Gordon Brown ?" will be a question on Andy Murray.

It asks the polled to say how they feel about the World number 3's description of himself as "Scottish and British."

Now clearly there may be some who think the marketing men have got at Britain's best hope of winning Wimbledon since Fred Perry cleared off to America after being told to take his balls elsewhere by the snobs who ran tennis. Appealing to all of Britain brings in a lot more money than just Scotland and it was noticeable that in his early days Mr Murray was less inclined to be seen as British and quite keen to promote his Scottish identity (as the picture top right illustrates).

But the question is interesting given the hullabaloo surrounding Scotland poor old mercurial cyclist Chris Hoy and his emotional tears (as pictured left) in Beijing as the Union Flag was pulled up in his honour during one of his three gold medal awards.
There was clear resentment among Nationalists that any Scottish sportsman may wish to call himself British and equal desperation among unionists that he became a symbol of their cause.

So for whatever reason Andy Murray has found himself in a much bigger match than the ones he will find on Centre Court over the next week or two.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (16)

People are out voting today (some of them anyway) and it looks like it might be a better turnout than expected if the feedback I'm getting from the front is true.
Anyway, it offers us a quick look at the Scottish sample of the latest Yougov poll which is running today.

SNP: 33 Lab: 25 Con: 18 Lib Dems: 16 Others: 8

This would mean a distribution of 2 seats each for the SNP and Labour, and 1 each for the Tories and Lib Dems. This was the predictable result even before the expenses scandal, but it appears that events in Westminster have shored up the Lib Dem vote and the only question is if Labour's drops so low it only qualifies for one seat.
As the sample is 410, it is a little better than the usual but still about half the number needed to be considered properly scientific.
And, as it was a large sample, just for fun I ran it through Electoral Calculus to see what it would mean in a general election.

SNP: 28 (+22) Lab: 17 (-24) Con: 4 (+3) Lib Dems: 10 (-1)

OK it is a sample not a proper poll, but this analysis indicates a sea change that could reshape Scottish politics far more accurately than the six seats available in the European parliament can tell us.

David Maddox: The Numbers Games (14) - Green shoots of recovery?

Could it be that despite all the worry of BNP candidates being returned to the European Parliament the actual main beneficiaries of the expenses scandal could be the Greens?

The party of recycling policies has put out a press release on the latest poll conducted by ComRes which seems to be very encouraging for them, especially in Scotland.

The UK figures of the poll of 1,009 people were:

Conservative: 24% Labour: 22% UKIP: 17% Green: 15% Lib Dem: 14% Others: 9%

This could increase the Green's seats from two (one in the South East and one in London) to 10, according to a party press release.

The Scottish sample was:

SNP: 29% Labour: 22% Green: 18% Conservative: 12% Lib Dem: 9% Others: 7%

Amazingly it puts the Greens in third place and would mean 2 seats each for the SNP and Labour, 1 each for the Greens and Tories and nothing for the poor Lib Dems.
One should remember though that the Greens are the party who predicted they would get 10 seats or more in the 2007 Holyrood election and hold the balance of power. Surprisingly, their eventual return of two seats actually meant they were at least half right because at times they have had the decisive votes, notably in voting down the budget.
But getting back to this poll, this Scottish sample represents a mere 89 people, which makes it not exactly the most scientific study of popular opinion in Scotland, although the way things are going not many more people may turn out to vote on Thursday.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (12)

Here is the latest Scottish sample of a Yougov poll for Westminster voting intentions. It is only 195 people (weighted) and 241 in total so cannot be taken as scientific. However, it is interesting because it is the first one since the MP expenses scandal impacted on the public consciousness.

SNP 30% Lab 28% Con 20% LD 16%

Putting this into Electoral Calculus you get the following number of Scottish Westminster seats:

SNP 13 (+7) Lab 30 (-11) Con 5 (+4) LD 11 (no change)

This seems to indicate that the SNP and Lib Dems are less damaged by the expenses scandal and their support appears to be up. In the Lib Dems case it is their best sample in many months.
The Tories seem to have only sustained limited damage and their vote is still holding consistently around 20%.
However, as expected the expenses scandal seems to have hit Labour hardest and while this calculation may still have them as the biggest party there are many marginals there for them to defend and many of their MPs North of the border who may have some explaining to do.
It will be interesting to see the next few Scottish samples, but David Cameron's warning to Unionists seems to have some substance in that the chances of the SNP being the biggest party and getting the 20 seats Alex Salmond is targeting is looking a much better bet than before.

David Maddox: The numbers game (10)

My usual sources have sent me the latest results of the rolling poll analysis.
This involves taking the Scottish samples of the last four Yougov polls in the hope that it may give a more reflective view of what is going on in the minds of Scottish voters. Four polls essentially includes the views of around 700 to 1,000 people.

The latest analysis gives the following in Westminster voting intentions:

Con: 23.75% Lab: 34% SNP: 26.25% Lib Dems: 12.75%

Our old friends at Electoral Calculus give the following breakdown in seats this would lead to:

Con: 7 Lab: 37 SNP: 7 Lib Dems: 8

Regular readers will know my scepticism about polls anyway, but this latest sample of four comes with more of a health warning than most, not least because of two rogue samples which gave the Tories 27% and 29% in that selection.
But, more importantly, as we have seen in the papers today there is already a knock-on to the expenses row which is impacting on Labour and the Conservatives support in particular.
No party has come out of the expenses affair totally clean, but it seems that the worst excesses have been from the two biggest parties so it will be interesting to see the same analysis done of samples of the first four polls following the scandal.

Nevertheless, polls still work as an indicator of the general flow of opinion and it is interesting to peruse the full analysis I have been provided with at this link: Scottish%20Yougov%20analysis

David Maddox: Half term report cards

Here are the spoof half term report cards put together by Labour and distributed to hacks prior to FMQs today (click on the link):
Report%20Cards_Layout%202.pdf

Pity that Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader, apparently forgot to actually use them in his four questions preferring his usual mantra on broken promises.

Nevertheless a spokesman for Alex Salmond felt the need to put out a response to them:
"The verdict of the people is what counts, which on the basis of the 50 key policies we have delivered over the past two years is highly satisfactory. The SNP have a commanding lead in the polls, even at the government's mid-term point. The score Iain Gray should be worried about is that only 7% of Scots support him to be First Minister - Alex Salmond is more popular than Iain Gray even among Labour supporters!"

The statement came with this briefing:
Polling%20Brief%2006-05-09.doc

The marks may be poor all round, but, as the SNP, say the final examiners (the voters) will give their verdict in 2011.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (9)

The weekend poll which gave the SNP a 10 point lead in list voting intentions and 12 point lead in constituency voting intentions for a Holyrood election has brought about a predictable but nevertheless interesting press release.
The SNP have worked out that they would gain 11 seats overall and actually more importantly should pick up 26 new constituency ones.
This is based on the predictor Scotland Votes, which somehow seems to work out a solution from one of the most complex voting procedures in the world.
The constituency number is always considered more important by parties because it gives them a much stronger platform to build for the future.
According to the latest poll this would see Labour leader Iain Gray and many of the shadow cabinet thrown out.
However, the usual bucket of salt needs to be applied. Like Electoral Calculus this does not take into account local circumstances or personal votes. For example the SNP also claim they will take out Presiding Officer Alex Fergusson, who was number two on their target list last time and actually managed to hugely increase his majority.

Seats that potentially fall to SNP (and their potential victims):
Airdrie and Shotts - Karen Whitefield, Education Committee Convenor (Lab)
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth - Cathy Craigie (Lab)
East Kilbride - Andy Kerr, Labour's Finance spokesman
Falkirk East - Cathie Peattie (Lab)
Cathcart - Charlie Gordon (Lab)
Glasgow Kelvin - Pauline McNeil, Labour Culture spokeswoman
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - Jamie Stone (Lib Dem)
Ross, Skye and Inverness West - John Farquhar Munro (Lib Dem)
Edinburgh Central - Sarah Boyack, Labour's Rural & Environment spokeswoman
Edinburgh North and Leith - Malcolm Chisholm
Edinburgh West - Margaret Smith, LibDem Education spokeswoman
Linlithgow - Mary Mulligan (Lab)
Midlothian - Rhona Brankin, Labour's Education spokeswoman
Dunfermline West - Jim Tolson (Lib Dem)
Kirkcaldy - Marlyn Livingstone (Lab)
Clydesdale - Karen Gillon (Lab)
Cunninghame South - Irene Oldfather (Lab)
East Lothian - Iain Gray, Labour Leader
Galloway and Upper Nithsdale - Alex Fergusson, Presiding Officer (Con)
Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale - Jeremy Purvis, Lib Dem Finance spokesman
Clydebank and Milngavie - Des McNulty, Labour transport spokesman
Dumbarton - Jackie Baillie (Lab)
West Renfrewshire - Trish Godman (Lab)
Aberdeen Central - Lewis McDonald, Labour Energy spokesman
Aberdeen South - Nicol Stephen, former Lib Dem leader
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - Mike Rumbles, Lib Dem Chief Whip

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (8)

It always amazes me how seriously parties take the numbers games and how they crawl over every minute detail from the polls.
My earlier blog on desperation tactics sparked a fairly sharp retort from the Labour offices:

"Polls commissioned by parties do not tell you much - the parties control the questions and crucially the weightings attached to each class of voter (there were 308 people who said they'd vote Labour, but this was "weighted" to 266 in the results). Stick with newspaper polls - they're more reliable!!" It read.

And it was pointed out that while there was a healthy lead for the SNP in its own commissioned poll for Holyrood the Nationalists were behind for Westminster. And if it was compared with the last SNP commissioned poll of August 2008 the SNP were going down which ever way you look at it.

Here they all are along with Westminster seat calculations courtesy as ever of Electoral Calculus:

Westminster (seats won and change in number in brackets):
August 2008: SNP 36% (26 +20) Lab 29% (22 -19) Tories 18% (4 +3) LD 13% (7 -4)
April 2009: SNP 30% (10 +4) Lab 32% (35 -6) Tories 21% (5 +4) LD 13% (9 -2)

Holyrood constituencies:
August 2008: SNP 44% Lab 25% Tories 13% LD 14%
April 2009: SNP 37% Lab 30% Tories 15% LD 13%

What does this prove?
1. Voters are fickle.
2. They vote differently for Holyrood than Westminster.
3. Point 2 suggests that SNP votes are not necessarily for independence.
4. Minor fluctuations in support could lead to dramatic changes in results (see the Westminster seat calculations).

David Maddox: The numbers game (7) - Desperate tactics

Life these days is tough for a Labour spin doctor because most of the poll readings are not exactly messages of joy for Messrs Brown, Darling, Gray et al.

So in the last week when the polls have been particularly bad both UK-wide and in Scotland, they have deployed their last cards in the numbers game. The tactic appears to be take whatever looks good however flimsy and desperate in the hope it has an impact.

So in a week when poll figures that suggest David Cameron would have a 150 seat majority if an election were called, Labour sent me this Scottish sample from yesterday's Daily Politics poll.

When asked: Who do you trust to steer Britain through the downturn?
Brown/Darling 48% v Cameron/Osborne 22%

Looks impressive until you realise that this Scottish sample is just 90 people.

It reminded me of last week's response to the Yougov poll commissioned by the SNP last week which gave the Nationalists a seven per cent lead in Scotland over Labour.

Labour of course dismissed it because it was SNP commissioned, even though it was a neutral organisation conducting the survey and came up with another Scottish sample of a concurrent UK-wide poll.

Lab 41% Con 27% SNP 18% Lib Dems 14% UKIP 1%

Again very impressive until you realise that this sample is just 165 people - "more than most samples," Labour insisted, but not exactly a scientific survey. Perhaps the fact the sample has the Tories scoring 27 per cent in Scotland should raise doubts about how it reflects support in Scotland, even the most ardent true blues would not be that optimistic.

However, Labour's spin doctors may still have a point. Larger polls have proven to be horribly wrong in the past. Let us not forget 1992, I know Labour don't, when the Conservative won despite what the polls had suggested. In recent times too, in Scotland at least, the polls have fluctuated greatly between Labour and SNP support. There's only one type of poll that counts the rest are just window dressing.

The next true poll then will be on June 4 in the European elections.

David Maddox: The numbers game (6) - Scottish edition addendum

Following my earlier blog on core support (party brand identity in polls), here is the table dating back to 2005 that Professor Paul Whiteley of Essex University (pictured), kindly sent me.
It shows the fluctuations in core party supporters in Scotland over the last few years, which will make happier reading for some than others. Click on to the link below:
core%20support.doc

David Maddox: The numbers game (6) - Scottish edition

Following my blog yesterday about the Westminster House magazine piece by Professor Paul Whiteley of Essex University on the strength of brand identity for political parties, he has kindly sent me the Scottish analysis.
His thesis is that the figures reveal that there is "everything to play for" in the next general election because the Conservative lead at at UK level is based on "fickle non-partisans."
UK- wide the latest support was 27% of people who identify themselves with Labour and 26% for the Tories.
In Scotland Labour has even more grounds for cautious optimism with 32% and just 25% for the SNP. The Tories are at just 14% and Lib Dems 10%.
"This is not surprising since Labour has a much longer history of electoral success in Scotland than the SNP," Prof Whiteley told me. "It takes time to build up partisan attachments."
As I mentioned in the previous blog, it is swing voters who decide elections not core supporters, but in these tough times Labour at least has a good base to work from.

David Maddox: The numbers game (6)

Reading the polls lately has been a form of masochism for members of the Labour Party, although the Holyrood voting intention Yougov poll at the weekend provided some light relief.

But on a UK level Gordon Brown (pictured right in an appropriately despondent pose), has consistently being staring at a double figure gap with David Cameron (pictured left with a big smile on his face).

However, new research from Professor Paul Whiteley of the University of Essex, has revealed that Mr Cameron may not have quite so much to grin about and, indeed, Mr Brown should cheer up.

In a piece for the House magazine in Westminster, Prof Whiteley has looked at the strength of the Labour and Conservative brands in terms of how people identify themselves.

This has revealed that UK-wide 27% identify themselves as Labour, one per cent ahead of the 26% who see themselves as Conservative.

Prof Whiteley's points out that Labour have consistently run ahead of the Tories in this brand identity test.

And as he concluded: "The Conservatives lead in voting intentions has occurred because non-partisans prefer them to Labour. But non-partisans are fickle and can rapidly change their minds, which is why the next general election is still undecided."

However, one warning for any Labourites out their who think this is the basis of them going on to win. Non-partisans are what we normally call floating voters and they have always decided elections, particularly in the swing seats. As things stand Labour is struggling to persuade any of them.

Nevertheless it would be interesting to know the equivalent voter party identity brand for Scotland.

David Maddox: The numbers game (5)

I have just been sent the latest Scottish sample results from the most recent UK Populus poll.
Admittedly a sample of 127 people is hardly much of an indicator to write home about, but the SNP member who sent it me clearly enjoyed the effect the results would have in a UK general election.

Conservatives 11% Labour 27% Liberal Democrats 18% SNP 43%

According to Electoral Calculus this would mean the following Westminster seat allocation:

Conservative 0 (-1) Labour 7 (-34) Lib Dems 8 (-3) SNP 44 (+38)

Now that would be a result that would bring about a referendum on independence!

David Maddox: The numbers game (4)

There are few things that work politicians and their aids into a lather of excitement more than polls and playing around with the numbers.
So attention has been paid to the Scottish sample of the most recent Yougov poll taken on February.
This appears to give the SNP a lead in Westminster voting intentions.

Conservatives 21% Labour 32% Lib Dems 8% SNP 33%

Putting this through the Electoral Calculus test, this translates into the following allocation of Scottish Westminster seats (comparisons with the 2005 general election in brackets):

Con 6 (+5) Lab 34 (-7) Lib Dems 5 (-6) SNP 14 (+8)

Which once again goes to prove how much the boundaries are weighted in favour of Labour over the Nationalists and the Lib Dems over the Conservatives.

But as has been noted previously the Scottish sample is very small (less than 200) and not really a proper indicator. My usual source who keeps a rolling total of samples has sent me the percentages based on the last four which is around 800 people and perhaps more indicative. This gives the following results:

Con 21.75% Lab 34.75% Lib Dems 11.25% SNP 28%

Which put through the Electoral Calculus Scottish page gives the following Westminster seat numbers north of the border:

Con 7 (+6) Lab 37 (-4) Lib Dems 8 (-3) SNP 7 (+1)

Which suggests that either Electoral Calculus cannot be trusted (it certainly does not allow for local quirks) or that the first past the post system in elections really ill-serves Scotland in terms of proportionality, although that is hardly a new revelation.

Gerri Peev: Poll blow for Labour?

SKY has been flashing an IPSOS/Mori poll which shows that Labour is now TWENTY points behind the Conservatives. The network reports that Labour is on 28 per cent, the Conservatives on 48 per cent and the Liberal Democrats are on 17 per cent.
One shocking aspect of this is the tumble that the Lib Dems have taken since a weekend poll put them on 22 per cent.

It is not surprising, then, that the party's Treasury spokesman amusingly admonished Sky for misreporting the poll, pointing out that the figures it quotes are only for people who say they are certain to vote at the next election.

So it means that Tory supporters are more likely to turn out and vote while Lib Dem supporters are sitting on the fence...

David Maddox: The numbers game (3) - Tory response

It seems that the one guaranteed way to wind up people and get comments is to run pieces on polls. In response to the briefing below from the SNP on the recent Yougov poll, the Tories have quickly responded (nice to know they are reading the Steamie), to point out that the Presiding Officer, Alex Fergusson (pictured), may not be in such danger as the numbers suggest.
"Let's not forget that, going into the 2007 elections, Alex Fergusson was defending a majority of just 99 against the SNP. Galloway & Upper Nithsdale (GUN) was their number one target seat," said the Tory spindoctor. "And in a year where the SNP made significant advances…Alex (Fergusson) increased his majority to 3,333! National trends don't always take into account local politics and personal popularity.
"Interestingly, to back up what I'm saying, did you know that the SNP's top three target seats in 2007 were GUN, Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, and Tweeddale, Ettrickdale & Lauderdale. Of those three, how many did they win? None. Exactly ;-)"
As I may have mentioned before, it all goes to show the only reliable poll is the one on election day.

David Maddox: The numbers game (3)

The Yougov poll mentioned in Saturday's posting had some interesting results, as you may have seen in a Sunday publication.

Despite apparently gaining in popularity from the 2007 election, though, on the basis of this poll in a Holyrood election the SNP would stay on their current 47 seats with Labour (44, -2), Lib Dem (13, -3), and Independent (0, -1) losses being taken up by the Tories (18, +1), Greens (5, +3) and Scottish Socialist Party (2, +2).

But, a briefing I have received from a senior SNP strategist shows that gains in pure numbers does not tell the whole picture. What is more important, as far as he and his colleagues are concerned, for long term success is the significant gain of nine constituency of first past the post (FPTP) seats.

This would see defeats for some big names - Labour's finance spokesman Andy Kerr (pictured left, in a different sort of tough race) in East Kilbride along with former Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen in Aberdeen South would both go. Even the poor Presiding Officer, Alex Fergusson, would be swept away in Galloway & Upper Nithsdale.

Other SNP gains would be: Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross; Ross, Skye and Inverness West; Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale; Aberdeen Central; Airdrie & Shotts; and Linlithgow.

As the senior SNP strategist explained: "My point would be that it’s better to win FPTP seats than list seats (although obviously good to win both!) – constituency MSPs are better able to dig in, build the base, etc.
"2003 was interesting – we fell back overall but won more FPTP seats than in 1999 – which was a healthy pointer to the future. And of course we won a pile of FPTP seats in 2007.

"Basically, the SNP used to be good at winning votes, and not good at winning seats (eg. the ’92 election). Now we are good at both – which in turn bodes well for the next Westminster election."

David Maddox: Lessons in how to play the numbers game

Following my postings on Friday and mention in the comments of an upcoming Scotland-wide Yougov poll, some acquaintances from Labour have been in touch.
It appears they have got their hands on the poll questions and, as you might expect, they have decided to get their attack in early, suggesting that the phraseology of the questions is designed to create a pro-Nationalist result.
In particular they have taken exception to this one:
Given the current economic downturn, who would you trust more to make the right decisions to help Scottish people in their everyday lives, Alex Salmond or Gordon Brown?
They feel that "help the people of Scotland" in a fairer test would be "help us out of the economic crisis."
All of which goes to show the minute detail people on both sides go down to to try to either manipulate or discredit poll results, which may explain some of the spectacular miscalculations of the past in polls.
It perhaps underlines that, in the end, the only poll that counts is the one that involves a ballot box.

For your info here are the poll questions, please feel free to give your answers in the comments section of this posting or on the Steamie Wall:

1. If there were an election to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?
a. Conservative b. Labour c. Liberal Democrat d. SNP e. Some other party f. Wouldn’t vote g. Don't know

2. And thinking about the regional or party vote for the Scottish Parliament, which party list would you vote for?
a. Conservative b. Labour c. Liberal Democrat d. SNP e. Green f. Scottish Socialist Party g. Solidarity h. Some other party i. Wouldn’t vote j. Don't know

3. As you may be aware the SNP government's budget bill was voted down this week. Alex Salmond has threatened to resign as first minister if it is voted down again and has suggested there may have to be a new election for the Scottish parliament. If the budget bill is voted down again and Alex Salmond resigns as First Minister would you prefer:
a. to have chance to vote in a new election for the Scottish parliament?
b. to let political parties decide themselves which party should run Scottish government?
c. Don't know

4. The Scottish budget bill was defeated this week after Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens voted against it. How would you rate the performance of each of the Scottish party leaders in relation to the recent budget process?
Choose from very good, good, average, poor, very poor or don’t know for each of Alex Salmond (SNP), Iain Gray (Labour), Tavish Scott (Lib Dem), Annabel Goldie (Conservative) and Patrick Harvie (Green).

5. Which of the following do you believe would make the best Scottish First Minister?
a. Annabel Goldie b. Alex Salmond c. Iain Gray d. Tavish Scott e. Patrick Harvie f. None of the above g. Don't know

6. Given the current economic downturn, who would you trust more to make the right decisions to help Scottish people in their everyday lives, Alex Salmond or Gordon Brown?
a. Alex Salmond b. Gordon Brown c. Would not trust either of them at all d. Don't know

7. The SNP wishes to hold a referendum on Scottish independence in due course. Voters would be asked whether they agree or disagree "that the Scottish government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state." How would you vote if such a referendum were held tomorrow?
a. YES (i.e. for Scottish independence) b. NO (i.e. against Scottish independence) c. Don’t know d. Would not vote

David Maddox: The numbers game (2)

Just had some interesting data from the Conservatives. They have put together the Scottish samples from the last four polls, which gives a more realistic view of the way things are going because it gives them a sample of around 800 instead of just 200.

The breakdown is as follows:

Conservatives 22% Lab 37% SNP 28% Lib Dems 11%

Using Electoral Calculus's Scottish page that translates in Scottish seats at a Westminster election as:

Conservatives 6 (+5) Lab 40 (-1) SNP 7 (+1) Lib Dems 6 (-5)

The spin doctor briefing to Annabel Goldie (pictured), the Scottish Conservative leader, is that the poll samples show that Scotland is now "a three horse race," which appears to be getting closer to the truth into terms of vote share, but is nowhere near in share of seats.

It is interesting how Electoral Calculus reveals the problems both the Tories and SNP have in breaking Labour's grip on Scotland and the Lib Dems' grip on pockets of Scotland. Even with half the Tory support the Lib Dems come up the same number of seats, the SNP only get one extra seat with six per cent more than the Tories, while the vast majority (two thirds) of constituencies stay with Labour even with only just over one third of the popular vote.

David Maddox: The numbers game

Just had a look at the latest Scottish sample of the Yougov UK poll published today. This has to be taken with a bucket of salt, because it is the opinion of just 206 people, slightly larger than most samples, but not a lot.
According to the results, for a Westminster the news north of the border looks pretty good for Labour, not bad for the Tories, awful for the Lib Dems and crushingly disappointing for the SNP.
Lab 39% SNP 27% Con 21% LibDem 10% Greens 1%
If one puts this through the calculator at Electoral Calculus, in terms of seats this poll translates into:
Lab 42 (+1) SNP 7 (+1) Con 4 (+3) LibDem 6 (-5) Greens 0
Far better for Labour than the 11 per cent gap behind the Tories in England and Wales. Maybe the Iain Gray/ Jim Murphy partnership is doing the trick for them, although same might be said of the Annabel Goldie/ David Mundell partnership with the Tories now regularly getting into the 20s in Scotland.
However the SNP would be a long way off their target of 20 Scottish seats and the Lib Dems appear to be disappearing from the scene, but, as I said, one small sample an election does not make.

Meanwhile Ladbrokes have chopped the odds on the Scottish budget being passed from 1/3 to 1/4. I would suggest that even with these low odds that is free money for anybody who wants to take a punt.