David Maddox: The Numbers Game (29) - Bookies' Balls up

As regular readers may know, The Steamie has at times tried to help you add a few pounds to your pockets by offering a tip on the political betting front with mixed success.
Those of you who put money on Iain Gray to become Labour leader may appreciate The Steamie's advice, while those who went for Ann Widdicombe to be Speaker may not.
But we've had some interesting odds regarding who will be the next Chancellor to give a Budget from our old friends at Ladbrokes. Please note these odds are ahead of tonight's debate and may change at 9.10pm, I'm reliably informed.

George Osborne 2/5 (fav)
Alistair Darling 5/1
Ed Balls 10/1
Vince Cable 16/1
Ken Clarke 16/1
Philip Hammond 20/1
Gordon Brown 100/1

So tip of the day would be to put your money on Balls.
With Labour closing the gap there is now a decent chance it will be the biggest party and may even have a majority.
If that were to happen Gordon Brown has already made it clear that he wants to replace Alistair Darling with Ed Balls, despite the fact that many people now believe the current Chancellor is the last remaining minister with any credibility and certainly could claim to have won an election for Labour.

This also applies to the newly published odds on the next Labour leader with the very same Ed Balls at 14/1. Again this tip is based on the fact that the Brownites would support him against the Blairites' David Milliband (the 5/2 favourite). He would also probably have the backing of the major unions including the dreaded Unite.

I'm not just saying this because he is a fellow Norwich City fan, but while Ed Balls is reportedly incredibly unpopular in the Commons he has enough powerful supporters and hangers on to make both sets of odds from Ladbrokes look pretty generous.

Perhaps the clever bet is to actually back Ed Balls on both. Whilst it is extremely unlikely but not impossible to clean up on both it makes a decent each way bet on Mr Balls' ultimate fate based on whether Labour win or lose the election.

Here are the rest of the runners and riders to replace Gordon Brown as Labour leader:

David Miliband 5/2
Ed Miliband 5/1
Alan Johnson 6/1
Harriet Harman 8/1
Peter Mandelson 8/1
Alistair Darling 12/1
Ed Balls 14/1
Jon Cruddas 14/1
Jack Straw 25/1
John Denham 25/1
Andy Burnham 25/1
Hilary Benn 33/1
Yvette Cooper 33/1
Shaun Woodward 50/1
Jim Murphy 50/1
Douglas Alexander 66/1
Peter Hain 66/1
John McDonnell 66/1
Liam Byrne 66/1
Hazel Blears 100/1
Tony Blair 100/1
Alastair Campbell 500/1
Cherie Blair 500/1

David Maddox: General election games

One of the more interesting election bets on offer is from Ladbrokes on how many cabinet ministers will lose their seats when voters go to the polls.
Given that three of them - Lords Mandelson and Adonis, and Baroness Royall - are not elected this leaves just 20 possible targets.
In Scotland we have two cabinet ministers often talked about as possible scalps. The Tories have hopes of taking both Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy's East Renfrewshire seat and Chancellor Alistair Darling's Edinburgh South West constituency.
But, as has been pointed out often by Mr Murphy, nobody expected him to win the seat in the first place in 1997 and he has held on to it twice since then against expectation. He has also been helped by being made Scottish Secretary giving him a free role to campaign here.
The two Scottish targets also represent their desire to have a "Portillo moment", a top level politician swept away in a wave of change across the country as happened to Michael Portillo and several of his colleagues in 1997.
There are a couple of others down in England too who might be under threat. The most vulnerable in majority is Treasury Secretary Liam Byrne in Birmingham while Culture Secretary Ben Bradshaw in Exeter is not safe.

Here are the odds from Ladbrokes:

0 - 6/4
1 - 5/1
2 - 7/1
3 - 8/1
4 - 8/1
5 or more - 2/1

The safe bet is zero, but the interesting bet could be three or four to go, which brings back the best return and also reflects the most likely potential number of casualties.
For guidance here are the cabinet members and their majorities in order of potential vulnerability with the main challenger (second in 2005) in brackets. Scottish seats in bold.

Liam Byrne, Birmingham Hodge Hill - 5,449 (Lib Dems)
Jim Murphy, East Renfrewshire - 6,657 (Cons)
Alistair Darling, Edinburgh South West - 7,242 (Cons)
Ben Bradshaw, Exeter - 7,665 (Cons)
Jack Straw, Blackburn - 8,009 (Cons)
Tessa Jowell, Dulwich and West Norwood - 8,807 (Lib Dems)
John Denham, Southampton Itchen - 9,302 (Cons)
Shaun Woodward, St Helens South - 9,309 (Lib Dems)
Ed Balls, Normanton - 10,002 (Cons)
Alan Johnson, Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle - 10,951 (Cons)
Hilary Benn, Leeds Central - 11,866 (Lib Dems)
David Miliband, South Shields - 12,312 (Lib Dems)
Ed Miliband, Doncaster North - 12,656 (Cons)
Peter Hain, Neath - 12,710 (Plaid Cymru)
Douglas Alexander, Paisley and Renfrewshire South - 13,232 (Lib Dems)
Harriet Harman, Camberwell and Peckham - 13,483 (Lib Dems)
Bob Ainsworth, Coventry North East - 14,222 (Cons)
Yvette Cooper, Pontefract and Castleford - 15,246 (Cons)
Andy Burnham, Leigh - 17,272 (Cons)
Gordon Brown, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath - 18,216 (SNP)

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (24) - Scotland at odds with itself

So with the SNP's big show this morning the bookmakers have again been the first to deliver their verdicts on the chances of independence or even a referendum being achieved.

First came Ladbrokes within minutes of the launch of the white paper. It is offering:
2/1 on a referendum on Scottish Independence before 2015
20/1 on Scotland to become independent of the UK before 2015

Paddy Power's odds have just landed offering:
8/1 on Scotland to gain full independence by 2015
7/1 on a referendum on full independence to be held in 2010

The only one of those bets worth even thinking about is independence before 2015 at 20/1 but even then you would probably be wasting your money.
The odds reflect the fact that a referendum will be blocked by the pro-Union parties before 2011 and anything further for the SNP depend on Mr Salmond and his cohorts becoming the biggest party in the 2011 Holyrood election and the Lib Dems agreeing to a referendum and having enough votes between them and the Greens to force one.
It is still possible that in his dotage Alex Salmond may look back to Wendy Alexander's "bring it on!" invitation when his party's popularity was at its height and realise it was the great opportunity missed.

David Maddox: Labour and the Brown stuff - aka The Numbers Game (21)

More and more it seems that bookmakers are providing the first early comment on the political fortunes of parties at key events.
This is because they track the bets punters make during big speeches
PaddyPower has just sent through a fascinating analysis of the affects of Gordon Brown's speech on the odds as it inspired people to lay bets on everything from his party's popularity after the conference to how long the applause would last.
One immediate effect though is that Labour's odds remain unchanged to win the election at 11/2 with the Conservatives remaining hot favourites at 1/12.
According to PaddyPower: "In general the speech looked likely to have a small positive effect on Brown’s approval rating next month with a fall in YouGov’s poll to 21-25% starting at 9/4 and drifting out to 3/1. The key time coming just after 3.00pm when Brown discussed pensions. A rise to an approval of 26-30% remained favourite throughout the speech, starting at 13/8 and finishing at 11/10."

Here were the key moments for the political gamblers when a flurry of bets were placed:

Length of Applause
14:31 Sarah Brown
14:36 Talk of Labour achievements
14:47 Talk of Bank collapse
14:52 New Banking Law and banks paying people back
15:02 Raise tax at top
15:13 Talk of troops
15:22 Personal Care for Free
15:25 Abolish heriditary principle in house of lords
15:31 Talking of dreaming

Approval
14:31 Sarah Brown
14:41 Talk of employment and saving jobs
14:49 Talk of his parents and family values with NHS
14:55 Climate Change deal
15:03 Free Child Care, Child Tax Credits
15:09 Talk of immigration
15:14 Threat to Iran


PaddyPower has also given us a series of post speech odds:

Who will win the next UK General Election?
1/12 Conservatives
11/2 Labour
80/1 Liberal Democrats

Gordon Browns’ October Approval Rating (Yougov Poll, Sept 09 = 26%)
16/1 10% or less
12/1 11 - 15%
8/1 16 - 20%
3/1 21 - 25%
11/10 26 - 30%
3/1 30 - 35%
8/1 36 - 40%
10/1 Over 40%

How many seats will Labour win at the next Election?
5/1 Less than 150
11/10 150-200
13/8 201-250
6/1 251-300
10/1 301-350
33/1 351-400
50/1 Over 400

It will be interesting to see how accurate the above is and whether the cash pundits are as good or better than us political hacks.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (20) - Odd predictions for Glasgow North East

Ladbrokes have just issued their odds for the declared candidates in Glasgow North East. The biggest surprise are the small odds for former Glasgow Airport bomb hero John 'Smeato' Smeaton who has just been announced as the Jury Team candidate.
His odds of 8/1 are much shorter than two of the established parties, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, who admittedly stand a snowflake in Hell's chance of winning the seat. Strange though considering the Jury Team got the least number of votes in the recent European elections.
Ladbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison explains: "Over-turning a Labour majority of 10,000 will be tough, even for a bloke who set aboot suicide bombers. But if anyone can, Smeato can."
Apparently he may not have said that had he witnessed the press conference launching Smeato as the candidate. I'm told by a colleague it got so out of hand he struggled so much that the Jury Team minders had to step in to cut it short. The event was punctured by long pauses as he struggled to answer basic questions.
Which goes to prove tackling suicide bombers is one thing, tackling hardened Scottish political hacks is an altogether different prospect.

Anyway here are Ladbrokes' odds for Glasgow North East:

Willie Bain (Labour) 4/6
David Kerr (SNP) 5/4
John Smeaton (Jury Team) 8/1
Ruth Davidson (Conservative) 100/1
Eileen Baxendale (Liberal Democrats) 100/1
Tommy Sheridan (Solidarity) 100/1
John Swinburne (Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party) 200/1
Kevin McVey (Scottish Socialist Party) 200/1
Charlie Baillie (BNP) 500/1

David Maddox: The Numbers Game returns

Things are getting so bad for Gordon Brown that bookmakers have now started taking bets on how badly the public think of him.
Paddy Power is asking punters to put their money whether their mouths are on the beleaguered PM's latest Yougov approval rating and the one he will have at the next election.
Even though he claims that he has now fixed the economy, I fancy any of the odds 4/1, 6/1 or 8/1 for the various estimates below 20%, especially after his latest McAvity act on the Lockerbie bomber.
Here are the odds:

Gordon Brown September Approval Rating
8/1 10% or Less
6/1 11% - 15%
4/1 16% - 20%
11/8 21% - 25%
3/1 26% - 30%
9/2 Over 30%

Gordon Brown’s Approval Racing At The Next General Election
6/1 10% or Less
5/2 11% to 20%
11/8 20% to 30%
7/2 30% to 40%
8/1 Over 40%

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (17)

I've just been handed the odds by one of the SNP's government special advisors (spin doctors) from Ladbrokes on the likelihood of the SNP reaching various targets.

It would be wrong to assume that this has anything to do with the First Minister's well known favourite past time outside eating curries, but no doubt he has taken a punt.

Alex Salmond's target of 20 seats for the SNP is 15/8 with the bookies, but I think a brave punter might look at the generous 9/1 for 26 to 30 seats.

The European election result would have given the SNP 27 or 28 seats in theory, if Electoral Calaculus is to be believed, and I must admit that my own calculation based on the MP expenses scandal fallout and some narrow margins of error could see the SNP win as much as 29 seats.

Here are the odds:

0-5 Seats 33/1

6-10 Seats 8/1

11-15 Seats 2/1

16-20 Seats 15/8

21-25 Seats 4/1

26-30 Seats 9/1

31+ Seats 12/1

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (15) - Shouting the European odds

As the European election beckons on Thursday there may be one other group apart from political party members who take much of an interest - gamblers. With the expenses scandal hanging over the whole contest there are genuine fears of a record low turn out.

As mentioned in my blog earlier, this looks set to benefit the smaller parties and it appears that unfortunately the BNP are odds on to get a seat.

The BNP bet is among a series of interesting ones highlighted by Betfair listed below which also allows people to put their money where their mouth is regarding a potential Labour meltdown at the polls - 3-1 looks a reasonably decent bet for zero to nine seats in the current climate.

• European Elections BNP To Win A Seat? – 2-5 Yes, 12-5 No
• European Elections Total UKIP Seats – 5-6 Less Than 15 Seats, 11-10 More than 15 Seats
• European Elections Labour v UKIP – 5-4 Labour, UKIP, 9-2 Tie
• European Elections Total Labour Seats – 5-4 thirteen to fifteen seats, 11-5 ten to twelve seats, 3-1 zero to nine seats, 9-2 sixteen to seventeen seats, 11-2 eighteen or more seats
• European Elections Labour v Lib Dems – 5-6 Labour, 5-4 Lib Dems, 9-2 Tie
• Next General Election Overall Majority – 4-9 Conservative Majority, 14-5 No Overall Majority, 14-1 Labour Majority, 129-1 Any Other Party Majority

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (13) - unlucky for the Speaker

It did not take much of a soothsayer to predict the demise of the Speaker Michael Martin and the bookmakers were ready with their odds on his successor.
The odds reflect the openness and uncertainty of what will happen next with no overwhelming favourite. MPs as yet appear unsure whether they want a short term reformer like Ann Widdecombe (12/1) who will stand down at the next election or somebody to lead the next parliament with moral authority.
Some like David Davis (33/1) and Ms Widdecombe have ruled themselves out, but traditionally this is a qualification for the job.
The favourite is a respected former Tory minister Sir George Young (4/1), who actually lost out to Mr Martin because he was the front bench choice.
Sir Alan Haselhurst (12/1), the Conservative deputy Speaker, may have been considered a shoein had he not got caught up in the expenses scandal himself. Likewise, Sir Menzies Campbell (14/1) appears to have blown his chances with £1,500 for a consultation with an interiror decorator who apparently happened to be a friend of his daughter's.
There seems to be a view that it is the Tories' turn but in a secret ballot anything could happen.
One good long shot might be Labour MP Kate Hoey (66/1) a leading voice for reform who inadvertently became one of the reasons for Mr Martin's demise after he gave her a public dressing down.
But of the awkward squad from Labour's ranks a very good bet may be Frank Field (10/1).
Another possibility may be the Independent MP for Wyre Forest Dr Richard Taylor (12/1), who seems to be clean and of the highest integrity, something in short supply in the Commons apparently.
One unlikely long shot may be Gordon Brown at 250/1 if he's looking for another job, although his dithering on expenses may count against him.
Here are Ladbrokes' odds with Conservatives in blue, Labour red, Lib Dems orange and the Independent in black. No SNP names are in the running.


Sir George Young 4/1
Alan Beith 5/1
John Bercow 6/1
Frank Field 10/1
Sylvia Heal 10/1
Ann Widdecombe 12/1
Richard Taylor 12/1
Sir Alan Haselhurst 12/1
Vince Cable 12/1
Richard Shepherd 14/1
Sir Menzies Campbell 14/1
Sir Michael Lord 14/1
Sir Patrick Cormack 14/1
Ken Clarke 16/1
Sir Malcolm Rifkind 25/1
Tony Wright 25/1
David Davis 33/1
Edward Garnier 33/1
Stephen Pound 40/1
Chris Mullin 50/1
Damian Green 50/1
Jack Straw 50/1
Jacqui Lait 50/1
Keith Simpson 50/1
Kate Hoey 66/1
Norman Baker 66/1
Diane Abbot 100/1
Nick Palmer 200/1
Gordon Brown 250/1

David Maddox: The numbers game (11) - Scottish Tory conference special

According to one paper this morning Ladbrokes are only offering 3/1 on the Tories getting seven or more seats in Scotland. The point was alluded to by Annabel Goldie in her longest day speech (it went on a bit, like the famous film) yesterday as proof that the party is on the way back.
Regular readers of the Numbers Game blogs on the Steamie will know that the Electoral Calculus predictions based on current polls, which do not even properly account for local loyalties, has the Tories getting seven seats on the most generous interpretations of the polls. So this is one of those occasions that it is better to hold on to your money.
However, it might be worth getting odds on five seats or more the way things are going, assuming that the SNP are not the only ones to benefit from a Labour collapse North of the border.

Hamish Macdonell - election odds

THE smart money appears to be rallying behind the Conservatives, if the latest odds are to be believed.
Having taken account of the latest polls, which give David Cameron a substantial lead over Labour, bookmakers have cut their odds to win the next General Election to the lowest they have been since Margaret Thatcher was in power.
The Tories are now 1/7 favourites to be the largest single Party after the next General Election. 'At 1/6 they were already red-hot favourites but if the new poll is to be believed they are virtual certainties' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.'We have not seen a significant bet for Labour to win the next Election all year.'
Meanwhile, Hills have lengthened Labour's odds from 7/2 to 4/1 - the longest they have been since Neil Kinnock was Leader, with the Lib Dems at 100/1.
Hills now make the Tories 2/5 favourites to have an overall majority at the next Election, with a Hung Parliament quoted at 5/2 and Labour 7/1 to do likewise.
Hills now believe that it is a virtual certainty that Gordon Brown won't risk a General Election until the last moment, so have cut the odds for the next poll to take place in 2010 from 1/3 to 2/9. They also offer 9/2 that it will be held between July and December this year and 8/1 in or before June 2009.
Gordon Brown is now odds-on to be the first of the three current Party Leaders to stand down - Hills make him a 4/7 chance to be the first to go, with Nick Clegg at 5/2 and David Cameron 9/2. Brown is 8/11 to cease to be PM during 2010; 5/2 during 2009.
Hills make him 4/11 to lead his Party into the next General Election, 2/1 not to.
ends

David Maddox: The numbers game

Just had a look at the latest Scottish sample of the Yougov UK poll published today. This has to be taken with a bucket of salt, because it is the opinion of just 206 people, slightly larger than most samples, but not a lot.
According to the results, for a Westminster the news north of the border looks pretty good for Labour, not bad for the Tories, awful for the Lib Dems and crushingly disappointing for the SNP.
Lab 39% SNP 27% Con 21% LibDem 10% Greens 1%
If one puts this through the calculator at Electoral Calculus, in terms of seats this poll translates into:
Lab 42 (+1) SNP 7 (+1) Con 4 (+3) LibDem 6 (-5) Greens 0
Far better for Labour than the 11 per cent gap behind the Tories in England and Wales. Maybe the Iain Gray/ Jim Murphy partnership is doing the trick for them, although same might be said of the Annabel Goldie/ David Mundell partnership with the Tories now regularly getting into the 20s in Scotland.
However the SNP would be a long way off their target of 20 Scottish seats and the Lib Dems appear to be disappearing from the scene, but, as I said, one small sample an election does not make.

Meanwhile Ladbrokes have chopped the odds on the Scottish budget being passed from 1/3 to 1/4. I would suggest that even with these low odds that is free money for anybody who wants to take a punt.

David Maddox: Shouting the odds on the budget

And here is the latest from our friends at Ladbrokes:
BETTING: Will the second budget be approved by Scottish Parliament? Yes 1/3 No 2/1
Ladbrokes spokesman, Nick Weinberg, said: “There appears to be an appetite for getting things sorted amongst the main Holyrood parties.”
Glad somebody's confident.

Apparently the firm has also seen money for Lord Mandelson (pictured) to be Prime Minister by the end of the year. The Business Secretary is now 66/1, from 100/1, to land the top job, which goes to prove that, even after the lessons of the catastrophic banking collapse, there are still plenty of people out there willing to throw away money.