David Maddox: A future fare for all with Gordon Brown

Lobby journalists have just discovered the price of a bus ticket with Gordon Brown.
One day on the election battle bus with the great leader is £595 while a full election season ticket is a snip at £12,995.
That's certainly an interesting way of raising election funds.
So when Mr Brown unveiled that rehashed election slogan "a future fair for all" maybe he just misspelt fare.

David Maddox: Let the election games begin

With the election timetable to 6 May becoming more clear by the day, the image of relentless, brain eating zombies trying to get your vote might be one which may be one which begins to chime with the public, especially after all the TV debates have taken place.
So already a free computer game has come out to capture that feeling. It looks like it might be a lot more addictive than the politicians themselves. Have fun by clicking here.
This may well prove to be the first of many.

David Maddox: MPs get their holiday

Well that's it then, we almost know exactly when the election will be called.
Harriet Harman announced in the parliamentary business statement that there will after all be an Easter recess in parliament much to the huge relief of MPs who had all but given up on a holiday.
Having said that they will almost certainly be spending their break tramping up and down streets in the phony election war.
MPs quit the Commons for a week on Tuesday 30 March and return on Tuesday 6 April. That means, according to the sears here in the Commons, it is almost certain that Gordon Brown will call the election after Prime Minister's questions on Wednesday 7 April giving us a month to 6 May.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (28) - What is the Cameron effect?

Fascinating Yougov poll around today with the Scottish sample a decent size at 562. It gives the first taste of political opinion since David Cameron's visit to Scotland for the Tory conference in Perth and the back end of last week.

Con 21 Lab 37 Lib Dem 15 SNP 21

According to Scotland Votes, the Scotsman's election calculation partner website, this provides the following results in a general election for Scotland (changes from 2005 in brackets) :

Con 2 (+1) Lab 39 (-2) Lib Dem 11 (no change) SNP 7 (+1)

Amazingly different polling results to 2005 but very little change with just Ochil and South Perthshire going from Labour to the SNP with Labour also losing Dumfries and Galloway to the Tories.
But the important thing is that makes a lot more results very close and could see many more seats changes hands.
This is shown by the different prediction from Electoral Calculus:

Con 4 (+3) Lab 39 (-2) Lib Dem 9 (-2) SNP 7 (+1)

It suggests that the Tories also gain Argyll and Bute and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk from the Lib Dems on top of the gain for them and the SNP predicted above.

But what this poll really shows is that the Tories are in play for all 11 targets, including ones held by the SNP such as Angus and Perth and North Perthshire. But it does not really take the Tories beyond the margins of support they have been polling in for a long time now, which leaves a question mark over the Cameron tartan effect of last week even though 21 per cent is at the high end of Conservative support in Scotland.
It does illustrate again how the boundaries work in favour of Labour and the Lib Dems and against the Conservatives and SNP.
But what it does is suggest that in Westminster terms at least the SNP vote is collapsing and that they are leaking support to Labour.
If this is true it is a victory for the Labour tacticians in Scotland who have relied on what they believe is an innate anti-Toriness in Scotland and are trying to squeeze the Nationalist vote by portraying a Westminster election as a competition between the two big parties.

David Maddox: The X Factor election

Just been listening to the fascinating debate on whether the Westminster voting system should be changed, read the reports on it in tomorrow's Scotsman.

Its an anorak's debate, which must be why so many MPs are taking part.

But one speech worth mentioning which may not survive the cut for various articles has just been made by Battersea Labour MP Martin Linton.

He is backing the alternative vote system (AV) which would allow voters to rank candidates in order of preference leading to the final winner after various eliminations having more than 50 per cent of the vote.

It is the system that Gordon Brown wishes to replace the current First Past the Post (FPTP) system with probably because its effect would almost certainly stop the Tories ever getting a majority again.

There have been various arguments about fairness and restoring trust in MPs used for AV tonight, but Mr Linton has possibly appealed to the wider public sentiment.

AV, he says, is the system used over a period of weeks to decide the winner of X Factor.

"If we had first past the post Jedward would have won," he added.

As a bit of a fuddy duddy I'm not entirely sure of the dismerits or otherwise of Messrs John and Edward (pictured top right) but I do remember the press coverage about Simon Cowell threatening to leave the country if they won.

For me this seals the argument in favour of FPTP, although I suspect Mr Linton hoped the threat of a Jedward victory would have the opposite effect.

David Maddox: General election games

One of the more interesting election bets on offer is from Ladbrokes on how many cabinet ministers will lose their seats when voters go to the polls.
Given that three of them - Lords Mandelson and Adonis, and Baroness Royall - are not elected this leaves just 20 possible targets.
In Scotland we have two cabinet ministers often talked about as possible scalps. The Tories have hopes of taking both Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy's East Renfrewshire seat and Chancellor Alistair Darling's Edinburgh South West constituency.
But, as has been pointed out often by Mr Murphy, nobody expected him to win the seat in the first place in 1997 and he has held on to it twice since then against expectation. He has also been helped by being made Scottish Secretary giving him a free role to campaign here.
The two Scottish targets also represent their desire to have a "Portillo moment", a top level politician swept away in a wave of change across the country as happened to Michael Portillo and several of his colleagues in 1997.
There are a couple of others down in England too who might be under threat. The most vulnerable in majority is Treasury Secretary Liam Byrne in Birmingham while Culture Secretary Ben Bradshaw in Exeter is not safe.

Here are the odds from Ladbrokes:

0 - 6/4
1 - 5/1
2 - 7/1
3 - 8/1
4 - 8/1
5 or more - 2/1

The safe bet is zero, but the interesting bet could be three or four to go, which brings back the best return and also reflects the most likely potential number of casualties.
For guidance here are the cabinet members and their majorities in order of potential vulnerability with the main challenger (second in 2005) in brackets. Scottish seats in bold.

Liam Byrne, Birmingham Hodge Hill - 5,449 (Lib Dems)
Jim Murphy, East Renfrewshire - 6,657 (Cons)
Alistair Darling, Edinburgh South West - 7,242 (Cons)
Ben Bradshaw, Exeter - 7,665 (Cons)
Jack Straw, Blackburn - 8,009 (Cons)
Tessa Jowell, Dulwich and West Norwood - 8,807 (Lib Dems)
John Denham, Southampton Itchen - 9,302 (Cons)
Shaun Woodward, St Helens South - 9,309 (Lib Dems)
Ed Balls, Normanton - 10,002 (Cons)
Alan Johnson, Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle - 10,951 (Cons)
Hilary Benn, Leeds Central - 11,866 (Lib Dems)
David Miliband, South Shields - 12,312 (Lib Dems)
Ed Miliband, Doncaster North - 12,656 (Cons)
Peter Hain, Neath - 12,710 (Plaid Cymru)
Douglas Alexander, Paisley and Renfrewshire South - 13,232 (Lib Dems)
Harriet Harman, Camberwell and Peckham - 13,483 (Lib Dems)
Bob Ainsworth, Coventry North East - 14,222 (Cons)
Yvette Cooper, Pontefract and Castleford - 15,246 (Cons)
Andy Burnham, Leigh - 17,272 (Cons)
Gordon Brown, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath - 18,216 (SNP)

Eddie Barnes - Lucky Jim

Scotland on Sunday is running an interview with Jim Murphy tomorrow and while he has some harsh words for people in his party who have conceded defeat, the Scottish Secretary was pretty upbeat.

Not surprising when you come to think about it. Murphy, who is running the Scottish Labour campaign, has the best job in the Labour cabinet. The main reason is that he won't be involved in the campaign in London. That will be hell. Defeat is in the air, nobody and everybody will be in charge, and they're going to have to watch as the Conservatives out-spend them by miles. You can just imagine the whole thing collapsing as thoughts turn to casting blame on one another, and the succession to follow.

Murphy on the other hand has it relatively easy. In Scotland, Labour can play at being in opposition, attacking the SNP government for everything (including, as we have seen this week, the weather). Meanwhile the spectre of an Conservative government being elected at Westminster may well spook their substantial core vote back into the polling booths. Labour chiefs are now claiming that this core vote is more motivated than it has been for at least the last five years (there's no way of checking this, I hasten to add).

On top of this, I've picked up distinctly worried tones from senior Scottish Tories in the last few days who fear that the Hoon-Hewitt coup might actually hand Gordon Brown the 'sympathy vote' in Scotland. This seemed to me initially to be the natural paranoia of the front runner, but I wonder. Meanwhile, one thing we don't know yet is whether the SNP is really going to plough that much cash and effort into the coming campaign, particularly when it's got Holyrood to win back next year. Holyrood has to be their priority, if priorities have to be made.

Lucky Jim indeed.

PS: However, are we forgetting the LibDems in all of this? Iain Dale has some drawn some interesting conclusions today on how the Libs could end up with 16 seats in Scotland, with four gains from Labour. His basic point is that we ignore local trends at our peril. Quite. Dale also thinks the SNP won't get anywhere near Alex Salmond's hoped-for 20 seats.

Eddie Barnes: General Election cliche alert pt 1

THE UK parties' general election slogans, which got their first outing earlier this week, have already come in for a bit of criticism from some quarters. But at least they have the merit of being different.

At the weekend, newspapers in Scotland received three different press releases from Labour, the Tories and the SNP. First there was the Conservative Shadow Secretary David Mundell. Releasing flattering polling data on Scots' attitudes to his party, he said this proved the Tories were Labour's main Scottish opponent. "People clearly realise it is a two horse race between David Cameron's strong and united Conservatives and this tired and failing Labour Government," he declared. Not so, declared the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon a few hours later "The reality is that the general election in Scotland will be a two-horse race between the SNP and Labour," she said. Hang on, that's three horses now isn't it? No, shot back Labour a few minutes later. "The next general election is a two horse race between Labour and the Tories." Good, that's settled then.

Please, enough already. Yes, Scotland's political landscape is crowded. Yes, you need to clear the field of parties which might nick your vote. But at the very least, ditch the two-horse cliche. What about "head to head" or "toe to toe"? Or maybe dramatic references to a duel to the death? If Steamie readers have any better ideas, the parties need your help.

David Maddox: The great TV debate debate (again!)

There was an air of predictable inevitability over the announcement on the election debate and its consequences.
The broadcasters were never going to countenance having Alex Salmond et al joining the big three, or rather the big two (Brown and Cameron) and medium sized one (Clegg). I gather that they were reluctant even to include Clegg but could not get away with it.
And, of course, apparently in the name of democracy we are to get legal challenges from the Nationalists in Scotland and Wales. But as I predicted in my Steamie debate with my colleague Eddie Barnes virtually every other minor party in British terms is also demanding a place in the debates - UKIP and the Greens have already said so. Maybe they will try legal challenges too.
However, I stand by my earlier comments that I cannot see a democratic justification for stopping Scots, or Welsh for that matter, watching a debate between the men contending to be prime minister.
These debates are nothing to do with proportionality and everything to do with the presidential style of election we now have, like or hate it. In that sense Alex Salmond and his Welsh counterpart stand no chance of being PM and their value in them is limited at best.
The issues of constitutional nature, which is what they stand for, can be dealt with in separate Scottish and Welsh debates, which should deal with the legal issues too.
The only down side is that discussions on health and education or anything else devolved will be of little interest to those of us north of the Border. However, the defence and economy debates should be fascinating and will be worth broadcasting in Scotland for that reason alone.
Economically especially we are on the verge of a new era and this election will decide whether it will be a future of far less public spending or more taxation. The two main contenders appear to offer very different futures and Scots should not be excluded from that.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (25)

I have just been handed some analysis from the Scottish samples of the last two Yougov polls, which comes from about 400 people.
The usual health warning about polls in general and combining polls in particular, but the results are beginning to show a certain degree of consistency.
That is that Nationalist support is going down, Labour is regularly in the low to mid 30s and the Tories are stuck around 20 per cent, while the Lib Dems are in a desperate battle for survival.
The data shows:

Con: 20.5% Lab: 35% Lib Dems: 16% SNP: 23.5%

My guess would be that the SNP vote is probably higher, whereas the Labour and Lib Dem vote is in reality a couple of points each below what is shown in this data.
However, should election day have this breakdown, then Electoral Calculus suggests the following results for Westminster in Scotland with change from the 2005 election in brackets:

Con: 4 (+3) Lab 38 (-3) Lib Dems 10 (-1) SNP: 7 (+1)

The Steamie: Welcome to the virtual by-election

The Steamie today brings you a first in Scottish politics and Scottish journalism.

Over the coming week candidates in the Glasgow North-East by-election, in adddition to fighting the contest on the doorsteps and on the hustings, will be taking the fight online.

Candidates for the main Scottish parliamentary parties will be be guest bloggers here on The Steamie for the duration of the by-election.

They'll be announcing their policies and their plans here, and taking on their opponents' arguments as well, making The Steamie a major forum for the by-election debate.

And of course, there will be the chance for readers of The Steamie to comment on their contributions.

The internet, one of the most influential tools in the US presidential election last year, is still an untested forum in Scottish and UK politics. But it is certain to be an important part of the forthcoming general election.

This virtual by-election on The Steamie is a chance for all sides to get a taste of that future.

Kenny Farquharson
Deputy Editor
Scotland on Sunday

David Maddox: Labour and the Brown stuff - aka The Numbers Game (21)

More and more it seems that bookmakers are providing the first early comment on the political fortunes of parties at key events.
This is because they track the bets punters make during big speeches
PaddyPower has just sent through a fascinating analysis of the affects of Gordon Brown's speech on the odds as it inspired people to lay bets on everything from his party's popularity after the conference to how long the applause would last.
One immediate effect though is that Labour's odds remain unchanged to win the election at 11/2 with the Conservatives remaining hot favourites at 1/12.
According to PaddyPower: "In general the speech looked likely to have a small positive effect on Brown’s approval rating next month with a fall in YouGov’s poll to 21-25% starting at 9/4 and drifting out to 3/1. The key time coming just after 3.00pm when Brown discussed pensions. A rise to an approval of 26-30% remained favourite throughout the speech, starting at 13/8 and finishing at 11/10."

Here were the key moments for the political gamblers when a flurry of bets were placed:

Length of Applause
14:31 Sarah Brown
14:36 Talk of Labour achievements
14:47 Talk of Bank collapse
14:52 New Banking Law and banks paying people back
15:02 Raise tax at top
15:13 Talk of troops
15:22 Personal Care for Free
15:25 Abolish heriditary principle in house of lords
15:31 Talking of dreaming

Approval
14:31 Sarah Brown
14:41 Talk of employment and saving jobs
14:49 Talk of his parents and family values with NHS
14:55 Climate Change deal
15:03 Free Child Care, Child Tax Credits
15:09 Talk of immigration
15:14 Threat to Iran


PaddyPower has also given us a series of post speech odds:

Who will win the next UK General Election?
1/12 Conservatives
11/2 Labour
80/1 Liberal Democrats

Gordon Browns’ October Approval Rating (Yougov Poll, Sept 09 = 26%)
16/1 10% or less
12/1 11 - 15%
8/1 16 - 20%
3/1 21 - 25%
11/10 26 - 30%
3/1 30 - 35%
8/1 36 - 40%
10/1 Over 40%

How many seats will Labour win at the next Election?
5/1 Less than 150
11/10 150-200
13/8 201-250
6/1 251-300
10/1 301-350
33/1 351-400
50/1 Over 400

It will be interesting to see how accurate the above is and whether the cash pundits are as good or better than us political hacks.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (17)

I've just been handed the odds by one of the SNP's government special advisors (spin doctors) from Ladbrokes on the likelihood of the SNP reaching various targets.

It would be wrong to assume that this has anything to do with the First Minister's well known favourite past time outside eating curries, but no doubt he has taken a punt.

Alex Salmond's target of 20 seats for the SNP is 15/8 with the bookies, but I think a brave punter might look at the generous 9/1 for 26 to 30 seats.

The European election result would have given the SNP 27 or 28 seats in theory, if Electoral Calaculus is to be believed, and I must admit that my own calculation based on the MP expenses scandal fallout and some narrow margins of error could see the SNP win as much as 29 seats.

Here are the odds:

0-5 Seats 33/1

6-10 Seats 8/1

11-15 Seats 2/1

16-20 Seats 15/8

21-25 Seats 4/1

26-30 Seats 9/1

31+ Seats 12/1

David Maddox: Looking for Middle Britain

As we get closer to a General Election there is again much talk of the target vote, the sort of people who will sway the result.

Tony Blair famously made a great play for Middle England which was packed full of Mondeo men (pictured) and Daily Mail reading Worcester women, even though, according to the BBC, its spiritual home was Tunbridge Wells in Kent.

It now looks as though that particular constituency has lost patience with devalued house prices, rock bottom shares and more expensive family holidays and gone off in a huff to support David Cameron and the Tories.

But apparently, according to some reports, the Conservatives are now aiming for Miss Staffroom. The young female middle class public sector/ teacher type of voter.

However, one interesting view of what Middle Britain should be has been put out by the TUC today which shows that the average person's income is much lower than most people might think and well below the middle class ideal.

See where you rate on the scale - 50 per cent is Middle Britain, below that is below average and, obviously, above that is above average. Click on this link.

David Maddox: Are the Lib Dems ready for the fight?

Times are tough, not least it seems for Scotland's political parties.

The Liberal Democrats, who even in their leanest Liberal years could rely on a fair level of support in Scotland, are, according to their website, ill-prepared for the next election, which in theory could happen as early as June.

There are just five candidates listed in the People Section of scotlibdems.org.uk. Even if you add their 12 MPs, this leaves them prepared to fight a mere 17 of the 59 Scottish Westminster constituencies.

The question is whether the financial problems alluded to in recent reports and the low membership base of 5,000 are endangering the Lib Dems of becoming fixed as the fourth party of Scotland. Even the Greens believe they can have a go at overtaking them.

Opponents suggest that 2005's haul of a dozen seats was a high water mark and 2009 or 2010 will merely be a matter of how many they can hold on to.

So is it possible that the limited number of candidates merely reflects a new focused cost effective strategy?

David Maddox: SAS candidate takes on Ming the Merciless (aka Patsy versus Pompous Ass)

Sir Menzies Campbell (top left), the former UK Liberal Democrat leader, has had a tough time this week after being described as a "pompous ass" and "Ming the Meaningless" by his old opponent, Alex Salmond, the First Minister. But, while he laughed off Mr Salmond's outburst, it seems that the former Olympic athlete may be having to look over his shoulder at a threat from some energetic youth.

The "energetic youth" in question is the Tory North East Fife candidate Mile Briggs (pictured right with Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie), a party researcher in Holyrood, who today self-styled himself as being an SAS candidate. This might be necessary considering that his opponent's nickname is Ming the Merciless.

The SAS allusion came with his proposed charity abseil off the Forth Rail Bridge (pictured left in Colin Ruffell's famous painting) to raise money for the RNLI.

However, when I bumped in to him earlier this morning buying a coffee it was his relative popularity to the veteran Lib Dem that he was boasting about.

When on Friday Sir Menzies gave his address to the Lib Dem conference on international affairs - the one where he criticised Mr Salmond's international grandstanding - he attracted about 72 delegates.

On Saturday, Mr Briggs tells me, that over 300 people turned up to one of his fundraising constituency coffee mornings in Newburgh, more than four times Sir Menzie's audience.

However, that said, Mr Briggs needs to overturn a majority of 12,571.

And the obvious put down for the young Tory - one of a legion of Patsies (politically ambitious 20 somethings) employed by political parties in Holyrood - might be Sir Menzie's current favourite Gordon Brown quote, the one he used about Mr Salmond and foreign affairs - "It's no time for a novice."

David Maddox: The numbers game (4)

There are few things that work politicians and their aids into a lather of excitement more than polls and playing around with the numbers.
So attention has been paid to the Scottish sample of the most recent Yougov poll taken on February.
This appears to give the SNP a lead in Westminster voting intentions.

Conservatives 21% Labour 32% Lib Dems 8% SNP 33%

Putting this through the Electoral Calculus test, this translates into the following allocation of Scottish Westminster seats (comparisons with the 2005 general election in brackets):

Con 6 (+5) Lab 34 (-7) Lib Dems 5 (-6) SNP 14 (+8)

Which once again goes to prove how much the boundaries are weighted in favour of Labour over the Nationalists and the Lib Dems over the Conservatives.

But as has been noted previously the Scottish sample is very small (less than 200) and not really a proper indicator. My usual source who keeps a rolling total of samples has sent me the percentages based on the last four which is around 800 people and perhaps more indicative. This gives the following results:

Con 21.75% Lab 34.75% Lib Dems 11.25% SNP 28%

Which put through the Electoral Calculus Scottish page gives the following Westminster seat numbers north of the border:

Con 7 (+6) Lab 37 (-4) Lib Dems 8 (-3) SNP 7 (+1)

Which suggests that either Electoral Calculus cannot be trusted (it certainly does not allow for local quirks) or that the first past the post system in elections really ill-serves Scotland in terms of proportionality, although that is hardly a new revelation.

Hamish Macdonell - election odds

THE smart money appears to be rallying behind the Conservatives, if the latest odds are to be believed.
Having taken account of the latest polls, which give David Cameron a substantial lead over Labour, bookmakers have cut their odds to win the next General Election to the lowest they have been since Margaret Thatcher was in power.
The Tories are now 1/7 favourites to be the largest single Party after the next General Election. 'At 1/6 they were already red-hot favourites but if the new poll is to be believed they are virtual certainties' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.'We have not seen a significant bet for Labour to win the next Election all year.'
Meanwhile, Hills have lengthened Labour's odds from 7/2 to 4/1 - the longest they have been since Neil Kinnock was Leader, with the Lib Dems at 100/1.
Hills now make the Tories 2/5 favourites to have an overall majority at the next Election, with a Hung Parliament quoted at 5/2 and Labour 7/1 to do likewise.
Hills now believe that it is a virtual certainty that Gordon Brown won't risk a General Election until the last moment, so have cut the odds for the next poll to take place in 2010 from 1/3 to 2/9. They also offer 9/2 that it will be held between July and December this year and 8/1 in or before June 2009.
Gordon Brown is now odds-on to be the first of the three current Party Leaders to stand down - Hills make him a 4/7 chance to be the first to go, with Nick Clegg at 5/2 and David Cameron 9/2. Brown is 8/11 to cease to be PM during 2010; 5/2 during 2009.
Hills make him 4/11 to lead his Party into the next General Election, 2/1 not to.
ends

David Maddox: Hmmmm.... Is a pattern emerging here?

After the spat continues about the Tory leaflet being handed out at Waverley Station this morning accusing Labour of destroying public services etc by leading the defeat of the budget yesterday (see my colleague Hamish Macdonell's posting's earlier today), and Labour's claim that it was all lies, a couple more press releases have come out from the true blues.
The first was entitled: Labour deprives forestry of £3.5m
The second had the equally subtle heading: Labour leads £217.5m transport budget cut
The two releases refer to Labour's two subject debates today in Holyrood. One suspects that every subject they now raise will provoke similar press releases given the potential consequences of their no vote.
At lunch time one Labour spin doctor wryly noted to me: "I don't know if Alex Salmond has put the SNP on an election footing, but the Tories are certainly now on a Westminster election footing."

Gerri Peev: Brown must bank on long term rate rise

ON a regional tour this week of just about everywhere except Scotland, the PM has said he is “determined during this period of time that inflation is low, interest rates will be low and that’s the best way of stimulating the economy.”

Leaving aside the fact that investors are scared away by low rates, the PM has to be careful not to promise too much on the interest rate front from an independent Bank of England.

More importantly, one only has to look across the pond to read the runes (or should that be ruins) to see that rates could go up perhaps sooner that many would like.

The Congressional Budget Office (stay with me) forecasts that America's debt will reach a whopping $1.186 trillion this year. This does NOT take into account the massive $775 million stimulus package the Obama administration will unleash to try and kickstart the economy.

The President-elect warned today: “Unless we take decisive action, even after our economy pulls out of its slide, trillion dollar deficits will be a reality for years to come.”

What does this mean? Well high debt levels put pressure on inflation, in turn encouraging policy makers to raise rates.

If Brown prolongs the election for too long, he could be entering a contest with high costs of borrowing as the background. He has been warned.

Gerri Peev: Darling calls for Dave to bring it on

ALISTAIR Darling has just given an entertaining speech at the Press Gallery lunch (yes really, he can be cutting). But just after he disarmed everyone with a barrage of jokes, including one about driving past RBS HQ and thinking: "I own that" (no actually, Chancellor, WE own that), he launched into a full-scale assault.

His attack was unsurprisingly on David Cameron who has been equally vocal in tearing strips of Gordon Brown's borrowing binge but a little more silent on his great plan. The Tory leader this morning called for an immediate general election to give voters a choice. And the Chancellor seemed to square up to him.

He contrasted Barack Obama's election slogan of "yes we can" to the Conservatives "no we can't" and said the dividing lines for the electorate would be clear ahead of the next election...But before we could start booking our places on the party battle buses, he stressed the government was getting on with tackling the economic crisis rather than plotting an election campaign.

David Maddox: Darling to woo Glasgow East?

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, is in Glasgow today for a couple of engagements, the second of which is to meet "community leaders" at the Fort shopping centre in the city's east end.
Now you don't need a long memory to remember that Glasgow East was the scene of a particularly humiliating night in recent Labour history when the Nationalist John Mason won the by-election and overturned a massive majority to become the constituency's first non-Labour MP.
Is it a coincidence that just yesterday Margaret Curran, the MSP defeated by Mr Mason in the by-election, announced she was to stand again at the general election?
Could it be that Gordon Brown has sent his Chancellor up to woo the people of Glasgow East?
If the answer to the second question is "yes" then the SNP are feeling quite relaxed about it.
"Darling was voted most boring politician of the year two years running," one noted SNP spindoctor told me last night.