David Maddox: Green shoots of recovery? It's all pants

In these dark days of economic gloom and depression there are many people out there desperately looking for any positive signs of recovery.

But instead of watching the FTSE or listening to the pronouncements of eminent experts like the Scotsman's Bill Jamieson or the manic ramblings of the BBC's Robert Peston there could be a much simpler method of knowing when the worst is over - loiter around Marks and Spencers and see if men have started to buy new underwear.

According to former Federal Reserve boss Alan Greenspan (pictured left) when sales of pants bottom out, it is probable the economy has too. His theory is that when men want to save money they stop buying underwear boxers and Y-fronts because very few people are likely to see them.

There has been another more messy method knocking around which apparently comes from a food critic. He suggested people go through restaurant bins and see how many broken egg shells are there on the basis that this shows how many people can afford to eat out.

Gerri Peev: Pesto needs mortar

Well, at least Panorama needs a blast. Sometimes there is just not enough bang for the buck. The BBC's endless trailing of the Panorama documentary: The Year Britain's Bubble Burst, offered more teasing than a peep show.

It boasted interviews with some of the most significant players in the run-up to the near collapse of banking as we know it. Robert Peston, the Beeb's economics editor, even bemoaned the fact the programme was only half an hour long on his blog, meaning that some of the juicy interviews ended on the cutting room floor.

It is odd, then, that the editors of the Beeb deemed it more interesting to devote more than half the programme to the journalist behind the story. Talented though he is, surely viewers wanted to know more about what Hector Sants (FSA boss), Alistair Darling, John Gieve (deputy governor of the Bank of England who admitted he did not have a clue) and Barclays' boss John Varley thought than why Peston decided to become a journalist. No doubt Peston is slightly embarrassed about being the focus of the documentary himself.

One more thing: the BBC's gloating about how Peston had an exclusive scoop about the bank bail out in October is not entirely true. Bill Jamieson, The Scotsman's executive editor, had the scoop on our front page story in our first editions on October 7. That means it was on the page many hours before the BBC had it online or broadcast the news.

The BBC has form in this, it tried to claim a story as its own a few weeks ago about RBS job losses that we had run on that day's front page.

George Kerevan: £ tanks again.

This morning, the £ sank to its lowest level ever against the euro. Should we cheer or cry?

According to the BBC website, “a strong euro is good for the UK economy. It makes imports from the eurozone more expensive, while UK exports become cheaper to those paying for them in euros. This is clearly a boost to the UK manufacturing sector in these difficult times. The eurozone accounts for about 60 per cent of UK exports.”

Alas, this is economic illiteracy.

Recession in the EU means that overall demand for British goods in Europe will decline next year. This is predicted in the Pre-Budget Report: "Recent strong import demand from Europe is not expected to continue in 2009, while recession in the US is also likely to reduce demand for UK exports."

We may also see something called the J-curve effect – things get worse before they get better. A cheaper pound means that those UK manufacturers who can sell to Europe will now get fewer euros.

We should also remember that while the EU is our biggest market, they sell more to us than we sell to them. The UK had a total trade deficit of £32 billion with the EU27 in 2006. This was made up of a trade in goods deficit of £32 billion but also a trade deficit in services of £6 million.

A more expensive euro may reduce some imports, but I’d bet we will go on purchasing EU goods and services because we make so little here. In which case, the more expensive euro will boost UK inflation as well as reduce the available cash we have in our pockets to buy British goods.