David Maddox: Budget gossip

The chat in the Westminster bubble today centred on the mystery of what could be Labour's last budget for some time.
The dates mooted have been next Wednesday (17 March) or the Wednesday afterwards.
The first, as mentioned in a previous blog, would mean that we would probably have an 15 April general election, the second a 6 May election.
But the reason for the gossip is that it is common practice - convention even - for the government to give at least four weeks notice for a budget. At the morning press briefing it was pointed out that even if the budget takes place on 24 March it would be the shortest notice period given for one ever.
But as the day moved on there were some suggesting that actually we are all mistaken in expecting a budget before the election.
The words from Gordon Brown on the Andrew Marr show which has led to this assumption were: "There will be a budget in the spring." He did not specifically promise a pre-election budget.
Strictly speaking even if there is an election on 6 May, a budget could take place afterwards before 21 June, which is the first official day of summer.
As convention is out of the window in terms of warning for a budget, it is also possible that it won't take place on Wednesday.
As you can tell people excited about strange things in Westminster.

Eddie Barnes - Budget predictions

Time for Holyrood to take back some attention from the Westminster pre-election fun. The Scottish Government's budget is laid before parliament today ahead of the first debate next week. Expect stern warnings of non-cooperation and brinksmanship from the opposition parties, and sage words from the Scottish Government about politicians' responsibilities to the public.

I expect the SNP Government to get the budget passed this time round without quite the same fuss as last year, when it was defeated by opposition MSPs amid totally chaotic scenes. My prediction is for both the LibDems and the Conservatives to have come on board once push comes to shove. The deal they cut with the SNP won't be about getting sweeties and pet projects however; rather it'll be about getting the credit for some populist cuts on public sector waste. Meanwhile, I expect Labour to dig their heels in, demand the reinstatement of the Glasgow Airport Rail Link, and then - once its been turned down- head straight to the printers for a fresh batch of "SNP anti-Glasgow" leaflets. I doubt the Greens will be given quite as much leverage as they had last year.

This will be the last budget round before the real cutbacks start kicking in this time next year. And leaving aside some token gestures its unlikely that we'll get much debate in this budget round on how the Scottish Government intends to tackle it - particularly as the SNP is about to go into an election promising to protect Scots from the worst of Labour-Tory cuts. Ominously, the same applies with bells on this time next year, when the budget round will take place just a few weeks before the 2011 Holyrood campaign. It all suggests that Scotland is in danger of lagging behind the rest of the UK in preparing for the spending crisis which is assuredly just around the next corner.

PS. A great story emerging this morning - reports that English Health Secretary Andy Burnham is considering minimum pricing on alcohol. This after Iain Gray's Scottish Labour contingent had declared their forthright opposition to such a plan. Oops. Did right hand talk to left hand, we wonder?

Update: Downing Street has declared it would not be "sensible" to go for a minimum pricing scheme. Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy has also told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland programme that punishing the majority would be "the wrong thing to do."

David Maddox: Still chums then?

A little bit of gossip from Wednesday evening after John Swinney's "glorious" victory in passing a budget at the second time of asking this month.

You will remember that he went out of his way to humiliate the poor Green MSPs (both of them) for having the audacity to join with the former executive partners (Labour and the Lib Dems) to vote down the budget. The offer of £33 million for a free for all insulation scheme was chopped down to a wholly inadequate means tested scheme for £15 million.

Afterwards the Greens' spin doctor (and general dogs body) James Mackenzie (pictured, left) could be seen in the White Heather Club (Holyrood's bar) drowning his sorrows with glasses of Peroni and muttering darkly about the SNP. For all it seemed that the Greens "love affair" with the Nats, propping them up in difficult votes was over.

But as fate would have it, or rather a seat arranger with a sense of humour, within an hour he was to be seated next to Kevin Pringle (pictured, right), Holyrood's lord of spin and the chief special adviser to First Minister Alex Salmond, for a delayed Burns Supper. And at the end of which the two were seen hand in hand singing Auld Lang Syne. So maybe "auld acquaintance" has not been forgot and they have made up, but only time and a few tight votes will tell.

One more ironic twist was that the Burns Supper in question was arranged for MSPs and hangers on by Energy Action Scotland and Scottish and Southern Electricity, two of the biggest supporters of the Greens' insulation scheme.

No doubt they reminded those of the 123 MSPs present who voted against it that had the Greens got their way 1.8 million households in Scotland would have bills of £340 a year less, less old people would have died of cold, at least 1,000 jobs would have been created and carbon emissions would have been reduced in Scotland by six per cent.

Perhaps it was with this lecture in mind that the Labour MSP Jackie Baillie noted as she gave the reply to the toast to the lassies: "Regarding insulation, we have all missed an opportunity this week."

Next Year's Budget - Eddie Barnes

I realise everyone has had read quite enough about the SNP budget negotiations, but here's one final word as the parties look ahead to next year's round.

As Alex Salmond said in the chamber yesterday, the budget for 2009-10 is going to involve real cuts in the Scottish Government's coffers. This is an entirely new development for our MSPs who have only had to decide since 1999 on how exactly they are going to eat their way through an ever-bigger cake. It means that the focus of opposition parties needs to change from what they can get from the SNP government to what they can the SNP Government to save.

The LibDems look signed up for this, and it is clearly fertile territory for the Tories (if they are prepared to risk looking nasty). Who knows, even Labour might have the courage to do what it knew it had to in government but lacked the political will.

They should start work now on what bureacracy and waste can be hacked off in the next 12 months so that, when the axe falls this time next year, it isn't our schools and hospitals that suffer.

Tom Peterkin: The Budget

So the SNP budget has finally secured parliamentary support after an unseemly week of huffing, puffing and posturing. With the support of the Tories, the Lib Dems and Labour, Alex Salmond has once again come up smelling of roses despite his combative approach to minority Government. What about the poor old Greens, who seem to have rejected the deal of the century?
Salmond's original offer of £33 million for home insulation to the Greens was cut to £15 million. At the weekend, Harvie warned that if ministers wanted the SNP/Green relationship to "seriously deteriorate, they will find our position over the next two years much more difficult to try and reach agreement, vote by vote, week by week".
So we're in for two more years of legislative battling - courtesy of two Green MSPs. Unless, of course, Salmond can rely on his new pals in the Lib Dems to keep riding to the rescue as they pursue their shared dream of borrowing powers for Holyrood.

Hamish Macdonell - Brown-ed off

SOMEONE please tell Conservative MSP Gavin Brown about mixed metaphors and how anybody with aspirations to be any kind of public speaker should avoid them.
He has actually just said this: "Labour and the Liberal Democrats are attempting to run the four-minute mile on the road to Damascus."
Worst line of the day? Worst line of the year so far.
ends

David Maddox: Budget - the end of the affair

Patrick Harvie, the leader of the Greens, is on his feet looking very glum. He has said the SNP "just don't get it" when it comes to carbon emissions.
As mentioned before, poor Mr Harvie is suffering after snubbing the SNP budget last week. Not surprising for a man who has seen his scheme lose £18 million in a week and changed from a free for all to a means tested one, he has said that the budget is "still inadequate."
There was a bitter swipe at the Lib Dems who dropped their £800 million 2p income tax cut for measures worth nothing to back the budget, which in effect ended the Greens chances of getting more for free insulation.
He doesn't care that the two Green votes will be the only ones against the budget today.
"It doesn't matter about numbers," he said defiantly. "There is a wider movement out there" being failed by the middle ground of politics "which the Greens will continue to represent."
According to Mr Harvie President Obama and most European governments are taking not of that movement and bringing in green projects to boost their economies and try to save the planet. Parliament would not even consider his reasoned amendment on the principle of free insulation.
It seems that the close relationship enjoyed by the Greens and SNP for the best part of two years may have come to an end. The only question now is have the Lib Dems supplanted the Greens in the SNP bed?

Hamish Macdonell - When its all going your way ...

ON the day when he is poised to record a substantial budget success, nothing, it seems can stop the First Minister.
He took part in a golf photo-call this morning with Sam Torrance. The former Ryder Cup captain had three putts on the icy surface and missed all three.
The First Minister, on the other hand, sank his third, to his obvious delight.
Does he need his ego massaged any more?
So to the budget and a little reminder to Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill that there is a pecking order - Mr Salmond on the top and everybody else somewhere far behind.
Mr MacAskill strode down to the front of the chamber before the start of the debate and sat in the vacant seat next to John Swinney.
At that point Nicola Sturgeon leant over and told him he was sitting in the seat which the First Minister.
MacAskill didn't need a second invitation. He picked up his files and retreated to the backbenches, leaving the seat free for Mr Salmond to occupy.
But if anyone thought today's budget debate was going to be all dull and boring, at least Tory Derek Brownlee decided to spice it up.
In the soundbite of the week, he declared: "At Westminster, the defeat of a Budget would bring down the government. At Holyrood, it seems, it brings down the opposition."
ends

David Maddox: Budget latest

After last week's excitement we have a day of near complete consensus ahead of us 126 - 2 in favour of the budget.

The news is that the Finance Secretary John Swinney (pictured) has taken his revenge on the Greens, best served cold apparently (revenge not Greens). There decision to vote down the budget last week now looks costly.

Having got everybody else to support his package - the Lib Dems yesterday at no extra cost and Labour today for 7,800 apprentices - Mr Swinney knows that the Greens are isolated.

So instead of offering them £22 million plus £11 million from social partners for their free insulation scheme, he's putting in just £15 million for a different means tested insulation scheme. I gather he told Green leader/ co-convener Patrick Harvie in an e-mail at quarter to midnight last night - ouch!

The Greens have put in a reasoned amendment putting back the principle of a free for all scheme, but it looks like they have little support. We shall see when voting happens 5pm. Meanwhile there will be much self-justification and finger pointing on display when the budget debate starts in half an hour, and maybe even some consensus.

One final thought. If the Greens are right royally, for want of a better word, stuffed by the SNP in this vote, then it will be interesting to see what happens next time the Nats want them to support them in a tight vote. Maybe I am wrong, but Swinney's vengeful spite could be the start of a two year Green strop.

David Maddox: So much for the spirit of consensus

This afternoon Labour dramatically made an offer to support the budget by reducing their demands for new apprentices from 23,400 over three years to to 15,600 over two. Finance Secretary John Swinney (pictured) had offered them 7,800 over one year.

The SNP parliamentary (as opposed to governmental) response was to issue a press release with the screaming headline: "LABOUR CAVE UNDER BUDGET PRESSURE."

This may mean they are going to accept or could mean that they are telling Labour to get knotted. Labour say their talks with Mr Swinney were constructive.

However, they should be grateful that Labour have apparently conceded the 2011 election already. In their release Labour said that they would support the budget with the extra apprenticeships "with an indication from the SNP government to roll on the programme in 2011-12" which is after the election.

Meanwhile Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott was in with First Minister Alex Salmond for more than two hours with apparently a detailed list of proposals, although they are not letting on what they are. However, surely it must be better than the rumours they simply want the scottish Government to formally recognise the Calman Commission and send in a paper on borrowing powers.

The Greens too have been back, but again there is no word of an agreement over that extra £11 million. The word is that Mr Swinney simply cannot find it.

Needless to say, this is set to run into next week and possibly beyond. Read more about it in tomorrow's Scotsman.

David Maddox: Hmmmm.... Is a pattern emerging here?

After the spat continues about the Tory leaflet being handed out at Waverley Station this morning accusing Labour of destroying public services etc by leading the defeat of the budget yesterday (see my colleague Hamish Macdonell's posting's earlier today), and Labour's claim that it was all lies, a couple more press releases have come out from the true blues.
The first was entitled: Labour deprives forestry of £3.5m
The second had the equally subtle heading: Labour leads £217.5m transport budget cut
The two releases refer to Labour's two subject debates today in Holyrood. One suspects that every subject they now raise will provoke similar press releases given the potential consequences of their no vote.
At lunch time one Labour spin doctor wryly noted to me: "I don't know if Alex Salmond has put the SNP on an election footing, but the Tories are certainly now on a Westminster election footing."

David Maddox: Shouting the odds on the budget

And here is the latest from our friends at Ladbrokes:
BETTING: Will the second budget be approved by Scottish Parliament? Yes 1/3 No 2/1
Ladbrokes spokesman, Nick Weinberg, said: “There appears to be an appetite for getting things sorted amongst the main Holyrood parties.”
Glad somebody's confident.

Apparently the firm has also seen money for Lord Mandelson (pictured) to be Prime Minister by the end of the year. The Business Secretary is now 66/1, from 100/1, to land the top job, which goes to prove that, even after the lessons of the catastrophic banking collapse, there are still plenty of people out there willing to throw away money.

David Maddox: FMQs - the budget recriminations continue

No surprises, FMQs has been dominated by yesterday's events and the defeat of the Scottish Government's budget.

Labour leader Iain Gray went on the attack and said that there was no sign of First Minister Alex Salmond (pictured) and the SNP losing the "hubris and arrogance" that brought them to this position.

But Mr Gray was himself under severe fire for leading the no vote, especially after he seemed to suggest that Scotland could wait until June for a new budget after the new financial year has started.

A furious First Minister Alex Salmond, his jowels rippling withe rage, said the £1.8 billion lost in the budget would equate to 35,000 jobs. Tory leader Annabel Goldie went on to accuse Labour of trying to "stage a bloodless coup to esconse Iain Gray as First Minister."

But, interestingly, given my posting below, the exchanges between Mr Salmond and Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott were in tone, at least, very conciliatory. None of the personal animosity of the Scottish Inter Faith Council and the truth inquiry of latter weeks. Mr Salmond pointed out that the Lib Dems' (now dropped) 2p income tax cut would lead to a net loss of 600 jobs and had no majority across the chamber even if the SNP were "miraculously" converted to it.

As mentioned earlier, the two are set to have talks. There could be some interesting developments.

You can read all the in depth analysis and Rab McNeil's sketch in tomorrow's Scotsman.

Hamish Macdonell - budget row part II

ACCUSING Labour of "hysteria", the Tories have hit back about their controversial leaflet.
Derek Brownlee, the Tory finance spokesman, issued a rebuttal, stating: "Far from withdrawing this leaflet, we will be printing more. Every Scot needs to know what Labour's package of tax rises and NHS cuts means for them. Labour's vote last night puts them on the edge of the abyss. Scottish Conservatives will be happy to give them a shove.”
ends

David Maddox: Question - When is a principle a non-principle? Answer - When it's a Lib Dem principle

The Lib Dems have dropped their demands for a 2p reduction in income tax in the Scottish budget.

This is after months of their chief whip Mike Rumbles (pictured top right) corridors of Holyrood berating opponents for denying their constituents a tax cut.

The volte face also completely torpedoes their economic strategy as well as their 2011 election strategy. The idea was that they would sell themselves as the party which would leave more money in people's pockets.

Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott (pictured left from his days as a mad viking) hinted at the change on the radio this morning, but senior colleagues have now briefied journalists to confirm it.

So what has changed?

Well, after yesterday there is a new budget to fight for and the Lib Dems see the chance of influencing it. Mr Scott and his finance spokesman Jeremy Purvis have meetings scheduled with Finance Secretary John Swinney this afternoon.

The irony in all this is that the Greens, who in a fit of pique brought the budget down yesterday when they had all but won £33 million in next year's budget to start their free insulation scheme, may now get muscled out by the Lib Dems and get nothing.

Hamish Macdonell - budget row spills outside Holyrood

ANYONE who thinks the budget row is confined to Holyrood should think again. The Tories apparently took the opportunity to hand out leaflets waring that the sky would fall in because of the budget defeat.
According to Labour, the leaflet was handed out at railway stations and on the streets, warning of council tax rises and and the slashing of public sector budgets - all because Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens united to defeat the budget.
Labour immediately took issue, accusing the Tories of spreading lies and demanding the party withdraw the leaflet.
"This is despicable and baseless scaremongering with not one iota of truth. The Tories lost the vote yesterday and have egg on their face," said Michael McMahon, a Labour MSP.
Tensions are still running high, it seems.
ends

David Maddox: Budget - Tomorrow is another day

Well after all the excitement of this truly extraordinary and historic day in Holyrood I'm going to sign off. You can read the in depth analysis and reports in tomorrow's Scotsman.

But needless to say the blame game has already started. Labour have blamed the SNP, the Tories have blamed Labour, the Lib Dems have blamed the SNP, and the SNP have blamed everyone except the Tories and themselves. Funnily enough, anybody who is not in a political party has blamed the Greens.


One interesting point is that somehow, even though their thinking is often different, the Lib Dems have still always voted the same way in Holyrood as Labour on the budget every year since the parliament was reconvened. More and more they look like an extention of Scottish Labour to those not well versed in the machinations of Holyrood, which is reflected in the declining polling ratings north of the border, which in some cases have dipped into single figures.


As one final note, it is clear that the SNP smelt disaster early in the afternoon and were resorting to pretty desperate measures.
This high priority e-mail was sent out by one of their backbenchers Christina McKelvie (pictured) at 2.51pm to her public sector trade union colleagues calling on them to lobby Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray:

I am writing about this afternoon's budget debate in the Scottish Parliament. The implications for Scotland if the Budget Bill is not passed are serious. Section 6 of the 2008 Budget Act would be the legislation which governs such an eventuality. That section can be found here - http://www.oqps.gov.uk/legislation/acts/acts2008/asp_20080002_en_3 In short, it means that the Scottish Government would only be allowed to release, in any calendar month, one twelfth of last year's budget or the amount paid out of the Consolidated Fund for the corresponding month last year. There is no allowance made for inflation. This would leave a shortfall of some £1.8 billion or £150m per month and leave the Scottish Government without the flexibility to spend money to protect jobs and investment.
As you will appreciate, such a situation would jeopardise public sector pay deals; increased funding for the NHS; increases to the local government settlement which would affect the ability of those local authorities to freeze council tax again this year; funding to cut business rates for small businesses; and accelerated capital spending in the region of £230 million. With the economy struggling as it is at the moment, I'm sure you will agree with me that Scotland could ill-afford such a cut in public spending this year. Cuts on that scale would not only affect the pay of public sector workers, they would adversely affect public services and would prevent the Scottish Government the opportunity to ensure that Council Tax stays frozen this year and that prescription charges come down - costs which fall heaviest on poorer members of society.
Can I urge you, therefore, to contact MSPs who you may know and urge them to support the budget this afternoon. In particular I would urge you to contact Labour's Leader in the Scottish Parliament, Iain Gray MSP, and urge him to take his party with him and vote to protect Scotland 's public spending this afternoon.
Yours,
Christina McKelvie MSP

David Maddox: Budget - "It's war!" says Salmond. "If we lose again."

Alex Salmond, the First Minister, has just announced that he has put the SNP on an election footing. His Finance Secretary John Swinney has already resubmitted the budget and they are to have talks with the Greens tomorrow morning. But if it fails next time the SNP government will resign.

David Maddox: Budget drama unfolds

Alex Salmond, the First Minister, and John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, are leaving their bunker. Press conference at 6pm in St Andrews House - the Scottish Government building on the hill overlooking Holyrood.
Will keep you posted as soon as we hear what they have to say.

David Maddox: Budget - the vote

Here it is: 64 in favour and 64 against. The budget falls for the first time in the Scottish Parliament's history. The Greens have not been bought off. The Presiding Officer has used his casting vote for the status quo, last year's budget. We are now in unchartered territory.
John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, has promised to reintroduce the budget as quickly as possible.
Alex Fergusson, the Presiding Officer, will call a business bureau meeting tomorrow to get a new budget timetable arranged asap.
Iain Gray has indicated that Labour may consider a vote of no confidence in the SNP government.

David Maddox: Budget - John Swinney speaks, yes or no to the Greens?

Green leader Patrick Harvie's amazing piece of brinkmanship was a stunning gamble. If Mr Swinney says "yes" he has won a tremendous victory, but if he says "no" then Harvie and the Greens may go down in ignomy for bringing down a budget and being responsible for the ensuing chaos.
Finance Secretary John Swinney has now spoken. After describing Labour as "pathetic and ridiculous." He had a message for Margo MacDonald and said he has given her what she asked for. She looks less than convinced. He's promised her that he will talk to Edinburgh City Council about pilot schemes on affordable housing.
But here's the key point for the Greens. He "will leaverage in spending
from social partners to increase the amount up to £33 million." Is it enough?
Patrick Harvie speaks: "Can he commit the government will make up the shortfall if the social partners can't?"
Swinney: "The government has said what it has said and will ensure that it happens."
We go into the vote at 5pm still not clear if the Greens are convinced.

David Maddox: Budget - Harvie's twists and turns (3)

The warning of this budget for the SNP is that you should not treat the Greens with contempt if you need their votes, even if there are only two of them and they have offices on the SNP floor.
Apparently Alex Salmond, the First Minister did not bother to contact them today until 2pm and then "only gave them hot air."
The £22 million was then offered in the budget speech, but when the Nats saw Mr Harvie's face, SNP backbencher Tricia Marwick tapped him on the shoulder and passed on a message from Mr Salmond. At that point he left to talk to the First Minister.
Now Mr Salmond and his Finance secretary John Swinney are grimly sitting in the chamber scribbling, possibly working out where they can find £11 million. Half an hour until the moment of truth.

David Maddox: Budget - Margo MacDonald speaks, SNP in trouble

Independent MSP Margo MacDonald has implied she may vote against the budget or at least abstain because John Swinney has not offered enough for affordable housing in Edinburgh at a time when the capital "is facing a social tragedy" in housing.
Support is melting away for the SNP's budget.

Labour MSP Jackie Baillie says that the budget can be passed on February 14 and be well in time for Scotland's accounting timetable.

David Maddox: Budget - Harvie speaks at last

Patrick Harvie has said he cannot vote for £22 million a year for free insulation. He is furious that the SNP have kept him waiting for their final offer until the debate. He has demanded an extra 50 per cent, £11 million, as a bare minimum. He says nothing less than £33 million would allow them to make even a start on the scheme.
He says the Greens will vote against at the moment. That's 64/63 against Swinney. Even with Margo MacDonald's vote the budget will fall on the Presiding Officer's casting vote.
Amazing brinkmanship from Harvie.

David Maddox: Budget - Harvie's twists and turns (2)

Latest is that the Greens are now thinking of abstaining. Talks are going on as we speak with John Swinney and Alex Salmond. But if they do abstain the words of James Mackenzie, the Greens' spin doctor, in the weeks leading up to this debate may come back to haunt them.
He said over and over again: "In the current political mix, an abstention is a vote in favour of the budget without getting any of the credit."

As an amusing aside, Liberal Democrat chief whip Mike Rumbles has just lectured Alex Neil on his lack of spirit of co-operation. This is the same Rumbles who was sent in for the Lib Dems' one and only meeting of budget negotiations on the basis that he was better at walking out in a huff than finance spokesman Jeremy Purvis.

David Maddox: Budget - Harvie's twists and turns

Green leader Patrick Harvie has left the chamber in a rage and has been talking to another hack about the perfidious SNP. Apparently he thinks that with £22 million next year and a long term commitment to his free insulation scheme he is being fobbed off.
Bruce Crawford, the SNP's business manager, has just told my colleague Hamish Macdonell that they don't know if they have a deal yet. The smiles are flickering at the edges and giving way to worried expressions.
Green spin doctor James Mackenzie looks like he has never known stress like this in his life.
But the feeling among the parliamentary hacks is that for having only two MSPs the Greens have been offered a fantastic deal and it would be suicidal for them to vote this budget down.
The bottom line, though, is that there is no deal yet and it looks like Mr Harvie may throw a fit and take Holyrood into the unchartered territories of a failed budget.
As I write, he's walked back in.... what is he going to say?

David Maddox: Budget continues....

I wonder if Alex Fergusson, the Presiding Officer, is being deliberately tantalising. We are all desperate to hear Patrick Harvie, the Green leader, to find out where the two crucial Green votes are going.
But he is yet to get his feet. Ahead of him are some particularly dull and rambling contributions from MSPs like James Kelly (Labour) and Nigel Don (SNP).

David Maddox: Budget - Brownlee speech

Having spent most of the time lampooning Labour for voting against the budget, Derek Brownlee, the Tory finance spokesman, has confirmed that his party will support the SNP today and claimed his party has won "a quarter of a billion pounds" of Conservative policies for Scotland.
As I blog, Jeremy Purvis, the Lib Dem finance spokesman, is saying that the measures in the budget is not enough. If you remember, the Lib Dems wanted a 2p income tax cut through the Tartan Tax variation powers, this would cost £800 million. So that's 63/62 for John Swinney at the moment.
Mr Brownlee has just asked him if all the Lib Dems have achieved is a "zero point zero zero per cent."
We are all waiting for Green leader Patrick Harvie now to see which way he and Robin Harper will go.

David Maddox: Hot from John Swinney's budget speech

The Finance Secretary has offered £22 million in the first year to start off the Green's insulation scheme. That should be the deal clincher, double the SNP's original offer, but only a fifth of the Greens' original demand, nevertheless a fantastic achievement for a party with just two MSPs.
Even more significantly he has given the Tories the credit for a new town centre regeneration fund of £60 million for 2009/10, three times what the Tories were asking for and even more than the £50 million demanded by Labour.
And finally he has agreed to be flexible over where money for new affordable homes will go to bring Independent MSP Margo MacDonald on board. She wants more cash for Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Assuming this is all enough then that will equate to 66 votes for the budget and 62 against. Looks like Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been marginalised again.

David Maddox: Yet more budget latest

And now we think we know why the SNP are all smiles. The rumour is that the Greens have been offered a £30 million a year free insulation programme over 10 years.
This is yet to be confirmed and, as I blog, the top brass of the Greens, all three of them (MSPs Patrick Harvie and Robin Harper and spin doctor James Mackenzie) are ensconced in a meeting to finally decide what to do.
Keep checking the blog folks. We'll tell you as soon as the rumour is confirmed or refuted.

David Maddox: More budget latest

If anything sums up the pressure mounting on Green leader Patrick Harvie then the sight of him eating his soup alone in the canteen with a Newsnight camera pointed a few inches above his bald pate does it. It underlines that his vote and that of his colleague Robin Harper will be crucial. To be fair on Mr Harvie he somehow managed to pretend the camera was not there. Cool under pressure.
But the emotions are beginning to show in other parties. Labour are obviously nervous that this budget may fall. Their group meeting at 12.30pm confirmed that they will vote against and they are busily trying to make sure they are not blamed for the ensuing chaos that will follow a defeat for the Scottish Government.
One Labour spin doctor has just spent most of lunchtime briefing me that SNP Finance Secretary John Swinney may be "deliberately trying to sabotage the budget" in the hope it will damage oppositon parties.
However, if the smiles on SNP faces and their spin doctors is an indicator to go by, then all may be well and a deal may have finally been struck with the Greens, not that they are letting on.
John Swinney will get to his feet to start the budget debate in just under 45 minutes. We will hopefully know then what is happening before the big vote at 5pm.

David Maddox: The strange goings on of budget day

As it seems more and more likely that the two Green MSPs will make or break the SNP's budget this afternoon with their demands for a £1 billion free insulation scheme, all eyes have been on them this morning to see what they will do.

All eyes? Well, of course, that is if they can be found. The lack of evidence of Greens in Holyrood this morning did lead to some speculation that Finance Secretary John Swinney may have taken a note from the book of Queen Elizabeth I's spymaster Sir Francis Walsingham who, according to the recent film, locked up some of the Queen's opponents "for their own safety" so they could not vote against her in parliament.

However, I have just exclusively received a picture that reveals that the Green leader Patrick Harvie was apparently making a getaway on an electric scooter this morning, possibly from the press, more likely the SNP. The only question is whether car coming up fast behind him is being driven by Finance Secretary John Swinney.

But stop press! I gather Mr Harvie has returned and will enter crucial final talks with Mr Swinney some time in the next hour and a half.

David Maddox: Definitely no Green shoots of recovery yet for Swinney

The tension over the budget has suddenly and suprisingly ratcheted up today as can be seen in the postings from my colleague Hamish Macdonell below.
But just before calling it a night here, one more call has come through. This time it is from the Greens to confirm that they are extremely displeased with Finance Secretary John Swinney.
They will not confirm that they have only been offered £10 million a year for their free insulation scheme instead of £100 million they want, but a source has told me that their two MSPs will vote against the budget as things stand.
Tellingly the source added: "There doesn't need to be a budget in place until the end of March so there is always time to come back with another one."
With Margo MacDonald unhappy, Labour smelling blood and the Lib Dems as confirmed nay sayers on Wednesday, the SNP need the Greens on board. But if the amazingly relaxed quote above is to be taken seriously then the Greens believe that a defeat for the SNP will not be a disastrous nuclear option and may be the best way to get what they want.

Hamish Macdonell - One more vote lost

JOHN Swinney had better make time in his crowded schedule over the next 24 hours to meet Margo MacDonald.
The independent MSP for the Lothians was on side and was preparing to vote for the budget, giving the SNP a little bit of breathing space on the vote.
But that was before she found out that Edinburgh and Glasgow are getting not a penny more for affordable housing on their budgets from last year.
The Steamie understand she is now going to vote against the budget unless that money is increased.
Apparently Margo spent some of today looking for the Finance Secretary, without success. It might be worth him keeping a look out for her over the next day or so, otherwise he might find the budget vote is an awful lot tighter than he anticipated.
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Hamish Macdonell - budget goes down to the wire

THE brinkmanship which has characterised the SNP's budget process for the last two years has got even more tense than usual.
The Steamie understands that John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, rang Andy Kerr, Labour's finance spokesman, twice over the weekend to discuss Labour's budget demands.
Mr Swinney is also due to meet Labour leader Iain Gray tonight to see if the two sides can compromise on the budget.
Labour wants major new investment in skills and apprenticeships in return for its support and the party has made clear to ministers that they will have to be given what they want or they will vote against the budget - they are very unlikely to abstain this year as they did last, to universal derision.
With the Greens also playing hard-ball and refusing to soften their demands for a major investment in house insulation, Mr Swinney needs something to give if he is to get his budget through.
He has apparently promised the Greens £10 million for home insulation when the Greens want £100 million. He will never go as high as £100 million but the Greens want him to raise the £10 million to a more respectable figure before they will consider supporting the budget.
Like Labour, the Greens do not intend to abstain, they say they will vote for or against, but they will not sit on the fence.
It is likely to go down to the last few minutes of Mr Swinney's wind-up speech on Friday. He will try to promise extra in that speech to get one of these two parties in board. If he fails to do enough, the budget may fall.
Then we will be in for recriminations.
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David Maddox: Budget latest

Just heard that no amendments to the Scottish budget have been put down tonight, even though this was the last opportunity.

We know that there are individual meetings between SNP Finance Secretary John Swinney (pictured) and Labour, the Tories and Greens scheduled for tomorrow and next week. The speculation is that Labour will get something for extra apprenticeships to get people back to work, assuming there are any jobs left in a few months, and the Conservatives will get some money for town centres.

I hear from a senior Nationalist MSP that the Greens will not get nearly enough of the £1 billion they want for free insulation over a ten year to persuade them to vote for the budget, but they may be bought off for now with some pilot schemes.

However, it looks like only the Liberal Democrats, who are stuck on their 2p income tax cut demand, which would take a year to organise anyway before it can be delivered and would mean a cut of £800 million from the budget, will actually vote against.

With no amendments today it means that John Swinney will have to promise changes in the Autumn revision of the budget to get the others to vote or abstain.

Hamish Macdonell - Making the books balance

THE deadline passed today for any amendments to the Scottish Government's budget - without any being tabled.
But this is not quite as clear as it sounds. The budget can still be changed right up until the moment that John Swinney sits down at 5pm next Wednesday at the end of the budget debate.
Swinney can introduce late changes himself and amendments can be put down on the budget motion itself, although these have to be general, not specific spending plans.
So Swinney will hold talks with Labour, the Tories and the Greens tomorrow. Labour wants more emphasis on skills, the Tories want town-centre regeneration and the Greens want money for home insulation.
Swinney will do his best to reassure all three without giving too much away. If he agrees to their demands tomorrow, they will come back with more and more demands every day between now and next Wednesday.
This means the brinkmanship will go on until 5pm next Wednesday but ministes believe they will get their budget.
The bottom line is that, in the current economic climate is anybody really prepared to play politics and block a budget which will do things like accelerate capital funding for infrastructure?
SNP ministers are gambling that the opposition will not take that chance but, as usual, no-one will really know for sure until next week.
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David Maddox: Laying down the rules

This is a posting for the Scottish political train spotting class.
The morning's Scottish Government briefing to journalists has finally clarified the rules on what happens with budget votes in terms of the Presiding Officer Alex Fergusson's casting vote.
Mr Fergusson has a duty to support the status quo, which is different to convention in Westminster where the Speaker supports the government.
So if this afternoon there is a tied vote, which until yesterday's decision by Labour to not oppose the budget at this stage looked possible, Mr Fergusson would support the Scottish Government. This would be done on the basis that at this point the budget is being discussed, so he would vote to support the continued discussion.
The tricky moment for the Scottish Government comes on the third and final stage vote on January 28. This is the stage where Labour are threatening to join the Lib Dems to vote against the budget and the Greens have suggested they might vote against as well if they do not get their £1 billion free insulation scheme.
If all three parties banded together and the Tories and Independent Margo MacDonald backed the SNP there would be a tied vote- 64 each.
In these circumstances Mr Fergusson would have to vote down the budget on the basis that discussion was over and the status quo is the 2008/09 budget.
All in all it means that opposition parties are better holding their fire for as long as possible, but that their only real weapon is the political nuclear option.

David Maddox: Budget goading

The verb to goad comes from the word for a big stick used to prod cattle in a certain direction and whilst the Tories may not care which direction their Lib Dem opponents go they have certainly decided to bring out a big stick to beat with them with over their position on the budget.
For those of you who need reminding, the Lib Dems have not exactly been negotiating much over the budget because they want a 2p cut in income tax using the Scottish Parliament's tax varying powers. The SNP oppose this because it would take £800 million from the Scottish budget.
Now you might expect a party that wants to reduce public spending by so much to not have a wishlist for extra spending. You would be wrong, claim the Tories. They have published a 91 item wishlist worth £8.3 billion which the Lib Dems have put their names to since Tavish Scott became leader in September. That's tenfold the savings they need for their tax cut.
The Lavish Tavish List includes £1 billion for the income tax cut, £1.8 billion for having a bigger new Forth Bridge, £330 million for extending paternity leave, £300 million on new dentists. The list really goes on and on.
The Lib Dems have of course hit back, calling it the Tories' "dodgy dossier"and say it is riddled with errors. A spokesman also suggested that it was a diversionary tactic away from the fact that the Tories have appeared to be asking for so little for them to support the SNP's budget.
The interesting point to this is that it very much sums up the supporting act in the two bouts that are going on in Holyrood. The headline act is the battle to be number 1 between Labour and the Nats, while the Lib Dems and Tories are locked in the battle to be number 3.
It's all a far cry from when the Tories were the biggest party in Scotland decades ago and the more recent pre-2007 election claim by the Lib Dems that they could be the biggest party in Holyrood.
If last year's by-elections are to be taken as evidence it is a battle the Tories are winning by dint of not being completely squeezed out by the two big parties and also their extra Holyrood seat from the 2007 election.
The two are also positioning themselves as the party of tax cuts for the 2011 Holyrood election. The Lib Dems want this to fall in income tax, the Tories in council tax.
All this matters, of course, because in a parliament of minorities even the Greens two MSPs can hold sway.
The first budget vote is tomorrow (Wednesday), but expect far more fun and games by the time the final vote takes place on January 28.

David Maddox: Lib Dems get ready to Rumbles

There used to be a rule among English cricket selectors that they should always pick bowlers to the suit the conditions for swing, spin or pace. It did not stop them losing with a monotonous regularity but somehow it made sense.
The same could be said of Tavish Scott's apparently strange choice of personel in his budget negotiations with the SNP. Instead of sending in his spinner - finance spokesman Jeremy Purvis - to weedle out a clever agreement he decided to rely on the less subtle tactics of his chief whip Mike Rumbles, who, if he were a bowler, would have a stock delivery of bouncing the ball at pace straight towards his opponent's chin.
Now I understand that Mr Purvis was not best pleased to be sidelined, but it was clear for all that the Lib Dems had no intention of striking an agreement with the Nats, thus the choice of Mr Rumbles.
The issue at stake here is that Mr Scott announced in his first week as Scottish Lib Dem leader that he wanted a 2p cut in income tax using the Scottish variable rate. This would mean a cut of £800 million in the budget which the SNP have made clear they will not countenance. It also means the Lib Dems cannot ask for new money for new projects so there was really little to discuss.
Mr Rumbles has been striding around Holyrood for weeks now berating opponents for not supporting the cut, so will have relished the chance to wag his finger at Finance Secretary John Swinney.
It may be the training he received in the army where he became a major, but his usual style made it difficult for most of us to believe the earnest pleas of the Lib Dem spin doctors that "he went into the meeting willing to be constructive."
I understand the meeting was short and went as planned for the Lib Dems: MR entered. MR demanded that JS accepted a cut in personal tax. JS said no. MR stormed out. Job done.
But even though Mr Scott may have picked the right bowler for this particular wicket, the question is, like the old England cricket team, will they still end up losing?

Hamish Macdonell - money, money, money

EVERYBODY in the parliament is aware of the main business of the week, taking place tomorrow, the publication of the Scottish Government's transport package for the next ten years or so.
The key issue is the replacement Forth crossing, how much it will cost and, crucially, where the government is going to get the money from. Is it to be financed out of the block grant (hugely expensive and unlikely), the PFI (massively unpopular with the SNP) or by the Scottish Future Trust (untried and untested and subject of intense criticism)?
But there is another event tomorrow which will be more for political anoraks but is nonetheless important - the Finance Committee's report into the Scottish Government budget plans for next year.
This will not make amendments or anything else but it will set the agenda for the budget discussions and, importantly, it will start the intense budget process which will see bartering and brinkmanship from now until February as the SNP tries to concede as little as possible and the other parties try to get the government to accept as much as possible.
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