David Maddox: Labour and the Brown stuff - aka The Numbers Game (21)
More and more it seems that bookmakers are providing the first early comment on the political fortunes of parties at key events.
This is because they track the bets punters make during big speeches
PaddyPower has just sent through a fascinating analysis of the affects of Gordon Brown's speech on the odds as it inspired people to lay bets on everything from his party's popularity after the conference to how long the applause would last.
One immediate effect though is that Labour's odds remain unchanged to win the election at 11/2 with the Conservatives remaining hot favourites at 1/12.
According to PaddyPower: "In general the speech looked likely to have a small positive effect on Brown’s approval rating next month with a fall in YouGov’s poll to 21-25% starting at 9/4 and drifting out to 3/1. The key time coming just after 3.00pm when Brown discussed pensions. A rise to an approval of 26-30% remained favourite throughout the speech, starting at 13/8 and finishing at 11/10."
Here were the key moments for the political gamblers when a flurry of bets were placed:
Length of Applause
14:31 Sarah Brown
14:36 Talk of Labour achievements
14:47 Talk of Bank collapse
14:52 New Banking Law and banks paying people back
15:02 Raise tax at top
15:13 Talk of troops
15:22 Personal Care for Free
15:25 Abolish heriditary principle in house of lords
15:31 Talking of dreaming
Approval
14:31 Sarah Brown
14:41 Talk of employment and saving jobs
14:49 Talk of his parents and family values with NHS
14:55 Climate Change deal
15:03 Free Child Care, Child Tax Credits
15:09 Talk of immigration
15:14 Threat to Iran
PaddyPower has also given us a series of post speech odds:
Who will win the next UK General Election?
1/12 Conservatives
11/2 Labour
80/1 Liberal Democrats
Gordon Browns’ October Approval Rating (Yougov Poll, Sept 09 = 26%)
16/1 10% or less
12/1 11 - 15%
8/1 16 - 20%
3/1 21 - 25%
11/10 26 - 30%
3/1 30 - 35%
8/1 36 - 40%
10/1 Over 40%
How many seats will Labour win at the next Election?
5/1 Less than 150
11/10 150-200
13/8 201-250
6/1 251-300
10/1 301-350
33/1 351-400
50/1 Over 400
It will be interesting to see how accurate the above is and whether the cash pundits are as good or better than us political hacks.
This is because they track the bets punters make during big speeches
PaddyPower has just sent through a fascinating analysis of the affects of Gordon Brown's speech on the odds as it inspired people to lay bets on everything from his party's popularity after the conference to how long the applause would last.
One immediate effect though is that Labour's odds remain unchanged to win the election at 11/2 with the Conservatives remaining hot favourites at 1/12.
According to PaddyPower: "In general the speech looked likely to have a small positive effect on Brown’s approval rating next month with a fall in YouGov’s poll to 21-25% starting at 9/4 and drifting out to 3/1. The key time coming just after 3.00pm when Brown discussed pensions. A rise to an approval of 26-30% remained favourite throughout the speech, starting at 13/8 and finishing at 11/10."
Here were the key moments for the political gamblers when a flurry of bets were placed:
Length of Applause
14:31 Sarah Brown
14:36 Talk of Labour achievements
14:47 Talk of Bank collapse
14:52 New Banking Law and banks paying people back
15:02 Raise tax at top
15:13 Talk of troops
15:22 Personal Care for Free
15:25 Abolish heriditary principle in house of lords
15:31 Talking of dreaming
Approval
14:31 Sarah Brown
14:41 Talk of employment and saving jobs
14:49 Talk of his parents and family values with NHS
14:55 Climate Change deal
15:03 Free Child Care, Child Tax Credits
15:09 Talk of immigration
15:14 Threat to Iran
PaddyPower has also given us a series of post speech odds:
Who will win the next UK General Election?
1/12 Conservatives
11/2 Labour
80/1 Liberal Democrats
Gordon Browns’ October Approval Rating (Yougov Poll, Sept 09 = 26%)
16/1 10% or less
12/1 11 - 15%
8/1 16 - 20%
3/1 21 - 25%
11/10 26 - 30%
3/1 30 - 35%
8/1 36 - 40%
10/1 Over 40%
How many seats will Labour win at the next Election?
5/1 Less than 150
11/10 150-200
13/8 201-250
6/1 251-300
10/1 301-350
33/1 351-400
50/1 Over 400
It will be interesting to see how accurate the above is and whether the cash pundits are as good or better than us political hacks.
Labels: applause, David Maddox, general election, Gordon Brown, Labour, odds, PaddyPower
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16:39
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