David Maddox: The Numbers Game (28) - What is the Cameron effect?

Fascinating Yougov poll around today with the Scottish sample a decent size at 562. It gives the first taste of political opinion since David Cameron's visit to Scotland for the Tory conference in Perth and the back end of last week.

Con 21 Lab 37 Lib Dem 15 SNP 21

According to Scotland Votes, the Scotsman's election calculation partner website, this provides the following results in a general election for Scotland (changes from 2005 in brackets) :

Con 2 (+1) Lab 39 (-2) Lib Dem 11 (no change) SNP 7 (+1)

Amazingly different polling results to 2005 but very little change with just Ochil and South Perthshire going from Labour to the SNP with Labour also losing Dumfries and Galloway to the Tories.
But the important thing is that makes a lot more results very close and could see many more seats changes hands.
This is shown by the different prediction from Electoral Calculus:

Con 4 (+3) Lab 39 (-2) Lib Dem 9 (-2) SNP 7 (+1)

It suggests that the Tories also gain Argyll and Bute and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk from the Lib Dems on top of the gain for them and the SNP predicted above.

But what this poll really shows is that the Tories are in play for all 11 targets, including ones held by the SNP such as Angus and Perth and North Perthshire. But it does not really take the Tories beyond the margins of support they have been polling in for a long time now, which leaves a question mark over the Cameron tartan effect of last week even though 21 per cent is at the high end of Conservative support in Scotland.
It does illustrate again how the boundaries work in favour of Labour and the Lib Dems and against the Conservatives and SNP.
But what it does is suggest that in Westminster terms at least the SNP vote is collapsing and that they are leaking support to Labour.
If this is true it is a victory for the Labour tacticians in Scotland who have relied on what they believe is an innate anti-Toriness in Scotland and are trying to squeeze the Nationalist vote by portraying a Westminster election as a competition between the two big parties.

David Maddox: How much does an SNP supporter cost the taxpayer?

An interesting written answer has popped up on the list on the parliament website which shows that the SNP ministers are intent on avoiding any details getting out of how much taxpayers' cash they hand out to party supporters. Here it is:

Lord George Foulkes (Lothians) (Lab): To ask the Scottish Executive what costs were incurred by and reimbursements made to Elaine C Smith as a consequence of her radio recordings for Weather Wise.

John Swinney: I regret that, under the Data Protection Act 1998, Section 7 (4) and (6), I am unable to release the information requested by the member.
Ms Smith has confirmed that she will be using her fee to fund her support for a range of charities.

The reason for this question is that Ms Smith is a well known SNP supporter and chairs the Scottish Independence Convention. It seems quite a coincidence that she should get the gig to provide the tips on radio for the Scottish Government's Weather Wise campaign in the recent cold snap.
It is highly reminiscent of the row caused by another question from the noble one one the Scottish Government "kickbacks" for the SNP supporting singer Sandi Thom (the one who did a duet with Alex Salmond). Then the Scottish Government admitted to forking out almost £10,000 in expenses including £580 for a breakfast to her for performing at government events.
The incident was highly embarrassing for the SNP and this written answer on Elaine C Smith shows that they intend to avoid any repeat in terms of damaging headlines.
Ms Smith may be giving her money to charity, which is of course highly commendable, but we should be allowed to know how much of our money is being handed out to people, government party supporters or not.

David Maddox: In Constance sorrow (2)

There is a debate going on this morning in Holyrood which may well go under the radar in terms of media coverage.

Labour have put down a motion raising concerns about a report which suggested that disabled people should be excluded from having free bus passes.

What is interesting about this is that the Labour motion in the name of their transport spokesman, the recently rehabilitated Charlie Gordon, is word for word the same as a written one put down by Livingston SNP MSP Angela Constance (top left).

The mystery here is why after putting down a written motion which was then signed by several of her colleagues and members of other parties Ms Constance then decided to withdraw it.

She is deputy convener of the parliamentary group and thee is a suggestion that she was heavily leaned on by the party whips because the motion essentially undermined future SNP spending policy, probably because the Scottish Government doies not have enough money for it.

An example of the SNP's famous central control over its MSPs who have yet to show any sign of rebellion.

If this is true then there is a slight irony in the sense that the leaning would almost certainly have been administered by the chief whip Brian Adam (pictured right).

This no nonsense MSP just recently put out a press release apparently criticising his finance secretary John Swinney for his decisions on council funding which has left Mr Adam's city of Aberdeen a little short of cash. To be fair, from my days as an Aberdeen reporter I know that Mr Adam is first and foremost a determined constituency MSP.

Whatever the inside machinations of the SNP Holyrood group, it will be interesting if Ms Constance offers an explanation for suddenly pulling a motion which commanded wide support.

Here's the original motion:

(1) S3M-04717 Angela Constance (Livingston) (Scottish National Party): Concessionary Travel— That the Parliament welcomes the recommendation of the Review of the Scotland Wide Free Bus Travel Scheme for Older and Disabled People to include seriously injured armed forces veterans to the scheme but notes with disappointment and concern the review’s recommendation to disenfranchise disabled people who receive the lower rate of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) from the scheme; further notes that the review paints a worst-case scenario of the costs of including disabled people who receive the lower rate of DLA and that these costs are open to scrutiny and debate and that the review also played down the positive social impact that the scheme has on people’s lives; acknowledges that denying disabled people on the lower rate of DLA access to the scheme will damage the main aims and ethos of the scheme, namely to allow disabled people improved access to services, facilities and social networks by free scheduled bus services and so promote social inclusion and improve health by promoting a more active lifestyle for disabled people; notes that previous local schemes operated in West Lothian and Strathclyde provided people on the lower rate of DLA access to concessionary travel schemes and that they supported the national scheme mirroring their eligibility criteria instead of the stringent criteria that is now adopted; welcomes disability organisations Leonard Cheshire Disability, Learning Disability Alliance Scotland (LDAS), Inclusion Scotland and many more in challenging the review’s negative recommendation, and considers that disabled people’s views, that the national concessionary travel scheme should include people who receive the lower rate of DLA instead of backing the unfair recommendation on eligibility from the review, should be listened to.
Supported by: Robin Harper (Green), Dr Bill Wilson (SNP), Stuart McMillan (SNP), Bill Kidd (SNP), Anne McLaughlin (SNP), Gil Paterson (SNP), Christina McKelvie (SNP), Elaine Smith (Labour), Charlie Gordon (Labour), Aileen Campbell (SNP)
Lodged on Friday, August 21, 2009; Withdrawn as of Friday, August 21, 2009

Chris Mackie: A bluffer's guide

As the SNP education brief begins life in a post Fiona Hyslop world, the clear line coming from the opposition parties is that her demotion (ok, sacking) was an example of Alex Salmond blinking first in the latest stage of his Call-My-Bluff style of minority government.

That the opposition felt emboldened enough to stare him down in his latest threat to walk out was emblematic of the torrid seven days his government has experienced. A simmering dispute with local councils, a lukewarm response to the referendum plans and ongoing education travails all added up to make it a week to forget for Salmond and co.

It is certainly true that the reshuffle (alright, sacking) has emboldened the opposition benches - the number of gleeful Tories, LibDems and Labourites eating lunch in the Parliament's canteen yesterday was significantly higher than it usually is.

But Alex Salmond is nothing if not a canny operator and he may well have felt that his powder would be better left dry to help him through the forthcoming budget negotiations, especially as the political tide is flowing against him in the run up to Christmas.

Much more is at stake for the SNP in those deliberations, and to take his government to the brink for the sake of loyalty to a colleague would have left him with much less political capital to play with in the new session. Yes, his position is lessened by this climbdown, but to stake his government on an education secretary that was the very definition of "embattled" would have been denser than the 198 brochure used to herald the referendum Bill.

Expect to see more of this in the New Year, with or without the chairmanship or Robert Robinson.

David Maddox: The SNP's cybernat problem

There have been some questions posted on the Scotsman's website about why comments are no longer allowed after my stories.
It has been alleged that I am afraid of criticism or that I can't handle a bit of abuse. Neither of these allegations are true, if they had been comments would have been blocked long ago.
It has also been claimed that I personally ordered comments to be stopped. Again not true, although it is nice to think that people seem to believe I have such authority in the newspaper. If only.
The reason the comments are no longer allowed after my stories is because cybernats - by which I mean the extremist element that supports the SNP and manifests itself under anonymous names - were putting up comments actually seemed to be threatening me physical harm and asking people to track down my home, car etc.
At that point it was decided by the newspaper's management that comments should no longer appear after my stories.
While I think it is a shame to close down the debate, I agreed with the decision, not least because my windows have been smashed eight times in the last two years, which makes personal security for me and my family a high priority, even if the vandalism was probably done by local kids.
I confronted via e-mail a couple of the pro-Nationalist posters who put up these threatening remarks and one, who at least had the decency to apologise, admitted to being a party member.
In the stories we have seen today in Scotland on Sunday and other papers, we have seen that again there is a link between the party and these vicious bloggers.
It rather makes the odd excuse that the SNP have officially always used that these are not party members and claims the posters may even be unionist plants just look silly.
It also does gives some credence to the case of those who believe that many of these bloggers are employed by the SNP or are members and that this sort of thing may actually be co-ordinated, although personally I think we need to see much more evidence before we can draw that conclusion.
I know that this is not only an SNP problem. Labour had Damian McBride, Wendy's drunk spindoctor foul mouthing Alex Salmond and various unionist posters have been pretty vicious too.
However, in Scotland the vast majority of the vicious and defamatory posters on the internet are supporters of the Scottish National Party, whether they are actual members, staff or not.
The SNP has simply refused to deal with this extremist element who do not represent so called civic nationalism, but the extremism evident in other types of nationalism.
The party's silence on the matter has always puzzled me. Some have taken it as actually condoning the behaviour, personally I think it is the equivalent of sticking its fingers in its ears and singing: "La la la nothing's happening."
One thing that is for sure, though, is that if the SNP want us to believe it really stands for civic nationalism, as I think its leadership mostly does, then it has got to tackle this problem and wheedle out the extremists once and for all.

A note on the good guys:
I feel I should add that there some excellent Nationalist contributors in the blogosphere, even if they are a minoritry.
Two of them, who happen to be among my favourite bloggers, but are not the only good ones, are Jeff Breslin of SNP Tactical Voting and now the Steamie, and Calum Cashley, the party's Westminster candidate for Edinburgh North and Leith and a researcher in Holyrood.
Both make thoughtful observations, do not hide behind anonymous names and are well worth a read. Neither feel the need to be abusive or defamatory but address issues through proper political debate.

David Maddox: Political betting

I received a slightly cocky e-mail this morning from a Labour spindoctor concerning his prospects of winning a bet the two of us have on the next general election.
At the start of the by-election he bet me £10 that the SNP will have less than 10 seats after the next general election.
And, according to his e-mail, after Labour's crushing defeat in Glasgow last night he is confident that I will be handing over a state sponsored RBS note some point next year.
I took the bet because I'm always happy to receive free money and my opinion has not changed from last night.
True, the SNP juggernaut came to a halt in Glenrothes and last night only confirmed that the breakthrough needed is still a long way off. The SNP will struggle to get Alex Salmond's target of 20 seats. It seems a long time ago now since the SNP were passing around a list showing that all Labour's seats bar one would fall to them on the basis of the Glasgow East swing.
However, they will gain seats. They managed to win six in 2005 with a mere 17.6% of the vote, they are now regularly polling above 30% in Westminster voting intentions and haven't dropped below 25%.
The other factor is that the Lib Dem vote appears to be disintegrating before our eyes. The party is running at around 12/13% in the polls (half what it was in 2005) and last night came a dismal sixth with just a handful of votes. Most of the disaffected Lib Dems appear to be going to the Nationalists and, to a lesser extent, the Tories.
As things stand my prediction for the SNP at the moment is 14 seats, four for the Tories, nine for the Lib Dems and 32 for Labour. Obviously, though, the chances are I will be very wrong.

Chris Mackie: Glasgow North East - the turnout

There is some typically insightful stuff from Mike Smithson at his ever fascinating Political Betting blog this afternoon. Despite near-universal predictions of a depressingly low number of people actually bothering to cast their votes in today's Glasgow North East poll, Mike has a decent stab at arguing that the official turnout could be surprisingly high.

He argues: "Just look what happened a year ago in the last by election where Gordon Brown campaigned. That was held in early November and we saw more than 52% of those on the electoral roll recorded as voting - which wasn’t that far short of the general election figure. "

This, the increased postal vote and the 42 per cent turnout in the Glasgow East poll has led Mike to put his money on the turnout being higher than 38 per cent.

Despite the weather in Glasgow holding up so far, I think this is slightly optimistic. The big issue he fails to tackle is the impact of the expenses scandal and the resultant voter apathy - a problem felt especially keenly in a constituency such as Glasgow North East. This effect will be exacerbated by the absence of any real political fight in the seat since Michael Martin became speaker. Numerous party workers have told us of the logistical problems they have faced during this campaign caused by the lack of any meaningful voter data or polling records on which to base their campaign strategy.

Things have not been helped, frankly, by the vague air of chaos around the whole enterprise caused by the existence of a number of no-hoper candidates all fighting for attention. That is undoubtedly a welcome sight in any democracy, but it has not helped any semblance of a pervasive narrative for the election break through to the media and subsequently, the voters.

The Glenrothes and Glasgow East fight were fascinating contests because they represented a clear referendum on the popularity of the Labour government. This contest has no such backdrop, despite the efforts of the SNP, and that is partly because of the number of competing voices shouting to be heard. There have been snatches of the BNP furore, a smidgen of red-faced socialist outrage and a touch of Tory toffage, but nothing that has dominated the news agenda throughout the campaign.

On the other hand, the increase in the postal vote will help, so it seems likely the doomsday predictions (see below post from David Maddox) will not materialise, I therefore confidently predict a turnout of around the 30 per cent mark and fully expect to be proved hopelessly wrong tomorrow morning.

David Maddox: Preparing for the end of the world in 2012

So it looks like a referendum on independence is now most likely to happen in 2012 if at all, as predicted in The Scotsman on Saturday by a senior SNP source and Professor John Curtice.
After the Lib Dems decided not to support the referendum bill next year at their conference on Saturday, but have clearly left the option open for the future we can fairly predict it will be a negotiating tool after the 2011 election.
However, today's Yougov poll on Holyrood voting intentions suggesting Labour would be the biggest party with 45 seats compared to the SNP's 41 seats in a George W. Bush style victory where they win less votes, means that it is not totally certain the Lib Dems would jump into bed with the Nationalists.
But, assuming for a moment that they do and the price of a ministerial Mondeo for Tavish Scott is a referendum and this happens in 2012 then it seem that even a vote for independence may be a hollow victory.
The end of the world may be a reflection of how ardent unionists would feel about separation, but according to a cult using the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar - from the Mayan culture - the world will literally end anyway on 21 December 2012.
The popular myth has been taken up by New Age types around the world and is now the subject of a new movie - simply entitled 2012 - so Scotland may get its "freedom" in May of that year but only have seven months to enjoy it.
By a strange coincidence, Labour's Holyrood campaign in 2007 was largely based on the four horsemen of the Apocalypse (pictured above) visiting Scotland should the SNP win power. Looks like they just got their timing wrong.
The good thing is that at least we will be able to squeeze in the London Olympics before Messrs Death, Famine, War and Pestilence arrive.

Eddie Barnes - Getting nasty

Labour MP Tom Harris has kicked up a stink on his always interesting blog by referring to the SNP conference in Inverness as "a hate-fest". He also declares that the SNP is "the nasty party" of Scottish politics, pointing to "the poison" which drips from the keyboards of Scotland's army of anonymous 'cybernats'.

Certainly, there were a few incidents at the conference which will give succour to those who feel nationalism is animated by "hate". Most people picked up on the comments by Plaid Cymru's Helen Jones, who described Gordon Brown as "a sorry excuse for a Scotsman" before asking "do you ever as a nation wonder what you will do with the likes of him after independence?" But as someone who spent three days in Inverness, I would say that the tone of the conference was basically very similar to those which I attended in Brighton and Manchester this year. In other words, for a few days, lots of active, interested, interesting people all got together to listen, talk and drink too much. Rather than a hate fest, Labour should be considering the more worrying reality- for them- that the SNP conference has become a venue to do business. Inverness was filled not with much fierce fist-pumping but rather with public affairs consultants and lobbyists all clammering for their few minutes chat with SNP Ministers.

While Tom concedes that the modern SNP may have changed, he still feels able to conclude that they are a 'nasty party' because of the undoubtedly unpleasant missives written by some of Scotland's 'cybernats'. But can we conclude that the 'poison' which leaks from their pens is representative of the party as a whole (or, indeed, even among those Nationalists who blog)? Or is it just a case of a few kids who don't sleep enough?

Answers on a postcard, please.

Eddie Barnes: Battle of the Booze

The Tories have announced their plans for a booze crackdown here in Manchester today. They aim to substantially increase the price of lager, cider and alco-pops through a new tax.

As tax is reserved, the plans will apply in Scotland where, as has been well publicised, the SNP administration is planning to introduce its own minimum pricing policy. This would mean that cheap high-strength drinks - lager, cider, and alcopops for example - would have a price floor under which they could not be sold.

But if the Tory plan might end up increasing the price of those drinks above that floor anyway, making the minimum pricing scheme superfluous, on all but cut-price spirits.

Which makes me wonder whether the entire SNP alcohol strategy should now be re-named as the "Glen's Vodka price increase (Scotland) Act" and have done with it.

Chris Mackie: Tories and Nationalists get cosy

There is some thoughtful stuff from former Scotsman hack Fraser Nelson over at the Spectator website. As well as some barbs directed at the SNP for its handling of the Lockerbie Bomber release and a fascinating snippet about Alex Salmond meeting Gideon, er sorry, George Osborne on an flight between London and Edinburgh, he throws up some interesting politics surrounding the relationship between the UK Conservatives and the SNP.

His contention is the likely Conservative general election victory could offer the Nationalists a route to financial independence by playing on English Tory Party unease about the level of public subsidy offered to Scotland. www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/the-week/5275838/part_4/politics.thtml

Here is the key section: "For some time, nationalists in Westminster have been quietly cultivating Tories who are known to resent the level of subsidy sent to Scotland (public spending per head is still 24 per cent higher than south of the border). They propose a new settlement. Why not set Scotland’s budget at whatever Scotland raises in tax? This is, after all, how the Basque country deals with Spain. Several Tories, including many on the front bench, are interested."

The move would certainly be popular among the core Conservative support in England, but does Cameron really have the stomach to abandon the strictly unionist line he has been careful to maintain during his leadership? Unionist Tories in Scotland may well begin to think that they have been sold out by their leadership, although the move might well play well to some of the small "c" conservative sections of the SNP support, so it could be a case of electoral swings and roundabouts.

Whatever happens, it will be fascinating to see the relationship between Eck and Dave emerge in the event of a Conservative victory next year.

David Maddox: Alex Salmond's international portfolio

1. Scottish Saltires fly in Tripoli as Al-Megrahi, a convicted mass murderer held responsible for the lives of 270 innocents killed when Pan Am Flight 103 was blown up over Lockerbie on 21 December 1988, is welcomed back to Libya as a hero after Mr Salmond's justice secretary releases him.
2. A Nato soldier finds the remain of victims of the Serbs attempts to ethnically cleanse Kosovo. Nato's intervention to stop the murder and forced removal of Kosovans was infamously described as "an unpardonable folly" by Mr Salmond.

3. Robert Mugabe, an international pariah and responsible for the brutal repression of Zimbabweans and the destruction of the country's economy. Mr Salmond was accused of giving Mugabe international credibility by writing to him asking for support on nuclear disarmament.


4. The high point of his attempts to woo America - an audience and photocall with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The politician his minister has just publicly ignored and slighted over the fate of the Lockerbie bomber and the US administration that has been insulted by the hero's reception for Megrahi in Libya.

The question is: If Scotland does become independent do Scots want Alex Salmond and the SNP to be responsible for its foreign policy? Feel free to discuss in the comments section.

David Maddox: Fielding at silly point

There are two things you can count on in the summer months - cricket and the newspapers' silly season.

And, as seems to happen most years when there is an Ashes series, the SNP have managed to combine the two.

This time Sandra White (pictured top left), a Glasgow list MSP, has put down a motion calling on cricket to be removed from terrestrial television north of the Border because there is little interest for it here. Strange she should make the complaint considering that it only appears on news bulletins as Sky holds the rights to the game.

But even a cursory look at the evidence shows that she is wrong about cricket not being widely followed in Scotland.

There are 160 clubs registered with Cricket Scotland (including the Grange in Edinburgh, pictured right). Around 28,000 Scots play the sport, not least the Scotsman's own team, and thousands more support it. Some argue it is more played and better supported even than rugby and you never hear the Nationalists wanting to ban that sport from the television.

Scotland has also had some success competing against first class county teams in one day competitions and on the international stage. They have gained full international status in the one day game and got to the semi-finals of the 2005 ICC Trophy.

There have also been some notable Scottish players. Two of the current Scottish team play for first class counties Navdeep Poonia for Warwickshire and Kyle Coetzer for Durham.

My favourite is arguably England's greatest captain Douglas Jardine (pictured left), inventor of the infamous Bodyline bowling attack to tackle Don Bradman in the 1932/33 Ashes series. His name still still brings up the bristles on the Antipodean back.

Then there was the famous win in 2007 of Freuchie in the National Village Cricket Championships at Lords.

The sport has a long history here in Scotland too with the oldest club Kelso dating back to 1820.

Ms White of course is following in the footsteps of her fellow list SNP MSP Christine Grahame, who complained about the Ashes being on TV too much in 2005. Notably, she is yet to win a constituency contest in the Borders where cricket is most popular in Scotland, despite trying in a marginal seat three times which was one of the SNP's top targets in 2007.

It could be argued that the Nationalist dislike for the summer game comes from its historical sentiment over its origins in Scotland. It was first played by English soldiers stationed in Scotland in 1785 after they had put down the Jacobite rebellion along with Scottish Hanoverian soldiers at Culloden.

But one has to ask, as some political parties already have, whether having a go at cricket is a convenient way of having a go at the English without actually saying so as it is clear they consider the game to be an English one. It is certainly an easy way of trying to stir up anger over English interests being put over Scottish ones in television coverage.

David Maddox: For Foulkes Sake (11) - aka I'm alright Jack!

How things change. Lord George Foulkes, Baron of Cumnock, MSP to the Lothians and First Lord of the Twittery (pictured right at a Hearts match) has been the bête noire to the Nationalists for many months now.

How they have railed at him over his hundreds of "pointless" written questions (more than 1,000), costing the taxpayer thousands of pounds.

But suddenly the Noble one has become a paragon of virtue in their eyes. What has changed? The answer is the target.

The SNP guns are now trained on former First Minister Jack McConnell (pictured left in his infamous Tartan Day get-up) who is being portrayed as Holyrood's laziest MSP.

Apparently in the two years to April 2009, he failed to cast his vote in 17 per cent of debates and submitted the equivalent of just one written question per fortnight. He also tabled a mere 14 parliamentary motions and did not serve on committees.

Nationalist MSPs have pointed out that other former ministers have not been so work shy. And which one did they raise as an example? Yes, you got Lord George Foulkes who has asked more than 1,000 written questions and tabled 61 parliamentary motions.

David Maddox: Are some people more equal than others?

Remember these words when Alex Salmond prior to taking the oath to become an MSP in 1999 and again in 2007 (pictured top right)?

"As an SNP group our primary loyalty is with the people of Scotland in line with the Scottish constitutional tradition of the sovereignty of the people."

The statement of course was worked out to assert the importance of the people over the monarch in line with the underlying sentiment of the Declaration of Arbroath in 1320. This treasured document supported Robert the Bruce's claim to the throne but made it clear it was on the basis of support from the populus rather than any divine right and could at a future time be removed.

Which makes you wonder why Mr Salmond missed the National Conversation event with the people of Dundee this morning so, according to his spokesman yesterday, he could be present at the Queen's garden party this afternoon.

In fairness people of Scotland were present at the garden party too, just in posh hats.

David Maddox: Murphy's law

You know when the silly season has begun because political parties start sending pictures of their opponents committing parking violations.
But this one is wholly deserved. Labour yesterday released a picture of SNP Transport Minister Stewart Stevenson using disabled parking spots for his electric car test (scroll down to the post two below this one) accompanied by the usual expressions of shock and outrage. So today the SNP have responded.
They found me this picture of Labour Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy with his car parked on double yellow lines near the Palace of Westminster. To make matters worse it actually appears on the Scotland Office website.

I seem to remember that there are some security risk issues about parking in that area too.
But the real lesson here is political parties in glass houses should not throw stones.
I guess we won't be having any games like this off the Lib Dems because we all remember the time when former Scottish leader Nicol Stephen parked his campaign bus on double yellow lines too.

Chris Mackie: Bring it on (or maybe not)

If this interesting snippet from James McIntyre of the New Statesman (http://www.newstatesman.com/2009/06/brown-labour-minister) is to be believed, it would certainly put the Labour cat amidst the SNP pigeons:

"Meanwhile, a separate idea, bold if controversial, is quietly being considered for the same election day: a referendum in Scotland on independence. This reflects a rueful and secretly held sense among some in New Labour that devolution was a mistake which emboldened nationalists and strengthened the hand of Alex Salmond, the Scottish National Party’s leader and Scotland’s First Minister. Brown has long fretted about British identity and about how people increasingly define themselves as English, Welsh and Scottish, rather than as British.
A referendum would call the Nationalists’ bluff. It would be a high-risk strategy. But Brown would be gambling on the majority of Scots who continue to recognise that the social, economic and political union remains much more than the sum of its parts."

While no doubt being supported by Wendy Alexander ("bring it on" etc), I agree that the move would carry extreme risk for a Prime Minister not known for his bold decisions. On the plus side for Brown, taking control of the referendum would allow him to dictate its terms and could embolden the "no" campaign before the SNP has a chance to make inroads at the Westminster elections. The likely upsurge in the turnout would also help to get the Labour vote out - something it manifestly had problems with in the Euro elections.

Looking at it with a more Machiavellian eye, if we assume the Labour party expects to lose the next election, a referendum on election day could give an incoming Team Cameron the mother of all constitutional headaches to deal with should the Scottish people vote "yes".

But is he really brave enough to take the Nationalists on in this way? I suspect he has neither the gumption nor the resources to fight two battles simultaneously, especially with the stakes so high. After all, even if he won the referendum, it is unlikely he would be in office to enjoy the political benefits it would bring - those, you suspect would be David Cameron's to savour.

David Maddox: Fishy business by the Scottish Government

Just ahead of the crunch vote on the Climate Change Bill (Scotland) it might be worth taking a quick nosy at the Scottish Government's current credentials on saving the world from ecological disaster.

Some of you may have seen the amazing and apocalyptic (if you are a fish) film End of the Line, which has made waves around the world. The thought-provoking documentary is film based on the book by the Daily Telegraph’s Environmental Editor Charles Clover, revealing the impact of over-fishing the oceans, in the sense that they will be empty pretty soon unless something is done.

Obviously, Scottish Environment Secretary Richard Lochhead, who has made his name by cosying up to Scotland's fishing lobby, has not seen the film or doesn't believe it. That can only explain the Scottish Government's recently launched Eat More Fish Campaign.

The campaign may be one of the reasons why the Greens are less than convinced about the SNP's commitment to climate change targets.

As Green MSP Robin Harper put it to me: "This is a clear case of the Government collaborating with industry in the face of well-founded scientific criticism. Without a change in tack from the SNP and other governments worldwide there will simply be no more fish to eat."

Anyway if you like to eat fish here's a picture of Mr Lochhead from the campaign showing us just how its best done:

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (17)

I've just been handed the odds by one of the SNP's government special advisors (spin doctors) from Ladbrokes on the likelihood of the SNP reaching various targets.

It would be wrong to assume that this has anything to do with the First Minister's well known favourite past time outside eating curries, but no doubt he has taken a punt.

Alex Salmond's target of 20 seats for the SNP is 15/8 with the bookies, but I think a brave punter might look at the generous 9/1 for 26 to 30 seats.

The European election result would have given the SNP 27 or 28 seats in theory, if Electoral Calaculus is to be believed, and I must admit that my own calculation based on the MP expenses scandal fallout and some narrow margins of error could see the SNP win as much as 29 seats.

Here are the odds:

0-5 Seats 33/1

6-10 Seats 8/1

11-15 Seats 2/1

16-20 Seats 15/8

21-25 Seats 4/1

26-30 Seats 9/1

31+ Seats 12/1

David Maddox: Why Labour hate the Welsh vote

Given the last few days this could be a blog about how Labour lost the popular vote in Wales for the first time since 1979 in last week's European election, the first time that the Tories have topped the principalities there, but its not.

Instead step forward Andrew Welsh (top left), the quiet Nationalist MSP for Angus current convener of the Finance Committee who has been a fixture in Scottish politics for the last 35 years (with an eight year gap between 1979 and 1987).

As the youngish MP for South Angus, elected aged 30 in 1974, he was part of the famous gang of Nationalists (top right, Andrew Welsh is second from the right) led by Winnie Ewing whose votes in the famous vote of no confidence in Callaghan's Labour government brought about the 1979 election and the start of the long years of Conservative rule under Margaret Thatcher (bottom left).

As a result, this morning in the Conservative sponsored debate in Holyrood calling for another general election, following the Nationalist one in Westminster yesterday, Mr Welsh has been a particular focus of attention for Labour MSPs.

They have been busy telling him and those outside Holyrood taking any notice, that the SNP "pact with the devil" in 1979 led to a particularly dark period in Scottish history, culminating in the poll tax being imposed North of the border.

So Labour MSPs in high dudgeon spent much of their time demanding that Mr Welsh apologise for letting Mrs T in. It goes without saying that Mr Welsh, in his usual style, politely and demurely refused.

The Labour could, however, have also pointed out, but they did not, that it led to the Nationalists being routed at the polls 30 years ago including poor old Mr Welsh losing his seat to the Tories. There was also the small matter of a civil war amongst the SNP's ranks with the emergence of the radical 1979 Group including present day party luminaries such as Alex Salmond, Kenny MacAskill, Stewart Stevenson and Roseanna Cunningham.

How times have changed and yet in Mr Welsh's voting habits not.

Gerri Peev: Biggest story so far in Brown meltdown

As the Cabinet implodes and Brown clings on by his fingernails (which incidentally are very short because he bites them), news reaches us of the most momentous development so far.

A telescopic SNP press release lands in the inbox:

Its headline reads: BROWN MELTDOWN REFLECTED IN HEARTLAND BY-ELECTIONS

LABOUR JUST CLING ON IN SAFEST WESTMINSTER SEAT IN SCOTLAND

The release details the earth shattering news that the Labour vote in a by election in Coatbridge North and Glenboig in North Lanarkshire has collapsed.

But er, Labour still won. This is hailed as a massive blow for Gordon Brown by Bruce Crawford.
A clever Labour press officer would actually dress this up as a victory for the PM, given the range of catastrophes facing him.

The headline about the Aberdeen man lost at sea springs to mind...

Ross Lydall: Is Labour afraid of talking about Britain?

Does the Scottish Labour Party have a problem describing itself as British?
A correspondent draws my attention to the party's European election manifestos for North and South of the Border, and the replacement of the word "Britain" with that of "Scotland" (or the omission of Britain altogether) on a number of occasions.

For example, the manifesto, entitled Winning The Fight For Britain’s Future, states: "Labour has fought hard so that workers in Britain have the right to guaranteed holidays, mums and dads have more time to spend at home with their British kids and we pay less for air travel or phone calls when we are on holiday."

But in the tartan edition, this is amended to: "Labour has fought hard so that workers in Scotland have the right to guaranteed holidays, mums and dads have more time to spend at home with their kids and we pay less for air travel or phone calls when we are on holiday."

Similarly, "Labour stands resolutely for the hard working majority of the British people" is amended to "Labour stands resolutely for the hard working majority of the people" for the benefit of Scottish eyes.

That's not to say that Britain does not feature in the Scottish manifesto. The word pops up 11 times - but 68 in the UK manifesto. All very strange for a Unionist party, perhaps?

David Maddox: Half term report cards

Here are the spoof half term report cards put together by Labour and distributed to hacks prior to FMQs today (click on the link):
Report%20Cards_Layout%202.pdf

Pity that Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader, apparently forgot to actually use them in his four questions preferring his usual mantra on broken promises.

Nevertheless a spokesman for Alex Salmond felt the need to put out a response to them:
"The verdict of the people is what counts, which on the basis of the 50 key policies we have delivered over the past two years is highly satisfactory. The SNP have a commanding lead in the polls, even at the government's mid-term point. The score Iain Gray should be worried about is that only 7% of Scots support him to be First Minister - Alex Salmond is more popular than Iain Gray even among Labour supporters!"

The statement came with this briefing:
Polling%20Brief%2006-05-09.doc

The marks may be poor all round, but, as the SNP, say the final examiners (the voters) will give their verdict in 2011.

David Maddox: What's good for the councillor is not good for the MP

The Tories have just put out an interesting press release on the announcement by two Nationalist MSPs, Bill Kidd and John Wilson, that they are to step down as councillors in Glasgow and North Lanarkshire.
Apparently they do not believe they can do both jobs to a high enough standard.
A similar decision was taken by North East SNP MSP Nigel Don when he won his seat and opted to resign as a Dundee councillor. Stefan Tymkewycz took the opposite decision and gave up being a list MSP to remain as a Edinburgh city councillor.
"But what about Alex Salmond?" ask the Tories.
He still continues to be the largely absentee (from Westminster) MP for Banff and Buchan as well as the MSP for Gordon and, of course, First Minister.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (9)

The weekend poll which gave the SNP a 10 point lead in list voting intentions and 12 point lead in constituency voting intentions for a Holyrood election has brought about a predictable but nevertheless interesting press release.
The SNP have worked out that they would gain 11 seats overall and actually more importantly should pick up 26 new constituency ones.
This is based on the predictor Scotland Votes, which somehow seems to work out a solution from one of the most complex voting procedures in the world.
The constituency number is always considered more important by parties because it gives them a much stronger platform to build for the future.
According to the latest poll this would see Labour leader Iain Gray and many of the shadow cabinet thrown out.
However, the usual bucket of salt needs to be applied. Like Electoral Calculus this does not take into account local circumstances or personal votes. For example the SNP also claim they will take out Presiding Officer Alex Fergusson, who was number two on their target list last time and actually managed to hugely increase his majority.

Seats that potentially fall to SNP (and their potential victims):
Airdrie and Shotts - Karen Whitefield, Education Committee Convenor (Lab)
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth - Cathy Craigie (Lab)
East Kilbride - Andy Kerr, Labour's Finance spokesman
Falkirk East - Cathie Peattie (Lab)
Cathcart - Charlie Gordon (Lab)
Glasgow Kelvin - Pauline McNeil, Labour Culture spokeswoman
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - Jamie Stone (Lib Dem)
Ross, Skye and Inverness West - John Farquhar Munro (Lib Dem)
Edinburgh Central - Sarah Boyack, Labour's Rural & Environment spokeswoman
Edinburgh North and Leith - Malcolm Chisholm
Edinburgh West - Margaret Smith, LibDem Education spokeswoman
Linlithgow - Mary Mulligan (Lab)
Midlothian - Rhona Brankin, Labour's Education spokeswoman
Dunfermline West - Jim Tolson (Lib Dem)
Kirkcaldy - Marlyn Livingstone (Lab)
Clydesdale - Karen Gillon (Lab)
Cunninghame South - Irene Oldfather (Lab)
East Lothian - Iain Gray, Labour Leader
Galloway and Upper Nithsdale - Alex Fergusson, Presiding Officer (Con)
Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale - Jeremy Purvis, Lib Dem Finance spokesman
Clydebank and Milngavie - Des McNulty, Labour transport spokesman
Dumbarton - Jackie Baillie (Lab)
West Renfrewshire - Trish Godman (Lab)
Aberdeen Central - Lewis McDonald, Labour Energy spokesman
Aberdeen South - Nicol Stephen, former Lib Dem leader
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - Mike Rumbles, Lib Dem Chief Whip

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (8)

It always amazes me how seriously parties take the numbers games and how they crawl over every minute detail from the polls.
My earlier blog on desperation tactics sparked a fairly sharp retort from the Labour offices:

"Polls commissioned by parties do not tell you much - the parties control the questions and crucially the weightings attached to each class of voter (there were 308 people who said they'd vote Labour, but this was "weighted" to 266 in the results). Stick with newspaper polls - they're more reliable!!" It read.

And it was pointed out that while there was a healthy lead for the SNP in its own commissioned poll for Holyrood the Nationalists were behind for Westminster. And if it was compared with the last SNP commissioned poll of August 2008 the SNP were going down which ever way you look at it.

Here they all are along with Westminster seat calculations courtesy as ever of Electoral Calculus:

Westminster (seats won and change in number in brackets):
August 2008: SNP 36% (26 +20) Lab 29% (22 -19) Tories 18% (4 +3) LD 13% (7 -4)
April 2009: SNP 30% (10 +4) Lab 32% (35 -6) Tories 21% (5 +4) LD 13% (9 -2)

Holyrood constituencies:
August 2008: SNP 44% Lab 25% Tories 13% LD 14%
April 2009: SNP 37% Lab 30% Tories 15% LD 13%

What does this prove?
1. Voters are fickle.
2. They vote differently for Holyrood than Westminster.
3. Point 2 suggests that SNP votes are not necessarily for independence.
4. Minor fluctuations in support could lead to dramatic changes in results (see the Westminster seat calculations).

David Maddox: The numbers game (7) - Desperate tactics

Life these days is tough for a Labour spin doctor because most of the poll readings are not exactly messages of joy for Messrs Brown, Darling, Gray et al.

So in the last week when the polls have been particularly bad both UK-wide and in Scotland, they have deployed their last cards in the numbers game. The tactic appears to be take whatever looks good however flimsy and desperate in the hope it has an impact.

So in a week when poll figures that suggest David Cameron would have a 150 seat majority if an election were called, Labour sent me this Scottish sample from yesterday's Daily Politics poll.

When asked: Who do you trust to steer Britain through the downturn?
Brown/Darling 48% v Cameron/Osborne 22%

Looks impressive until you realise that this Scottish sample is just 90 people.

It reminded me of last week's response to the Yougov poll commissioned by the SNP last week which gave the Nationalists a seven per cent lead in Scotland over Labour.

Labour of course dismissed it because it was SNP commissioned, even though it was a neutral organisation conducting the survey and came up with another Scottish sample of a concurrent UK-wide poll.

Lab 41% Con 27% SNP 18% Lib Dems 14% UKIP 1%

Again very impressive until you realise that this sample is just 165 people - "more than most samples," Labour insisted, but not exactly a scientific survey. Perhaps the fact the sample has the Tories scoring 27 per cent in Scotland should raise doubts about how it reflects support in Scotland, even the most ardent true blues would not be that optimistic.

However, Labour's spin doctors may still have a point. Larger polls have proven to be horribly wrong in the past. Let us not forget 1992, I know Labour don't, when the Conservative won despite what the polls had suggested. In recent times too, in Scotland at least, the polls have fluctuated greatly between Labour and SNP support. There's only one type of poll that counts the rest are just window dressing.

The next true poll then will be on June 4 in the European elections.

David Maddox: The end of the SNP's flirtation with the Catholics?

WHEN Alex Salmond went on his jaunt to China to portray himself again as a world instead of a parochial figure, he may not have calculated that his trip would undermine his attempts to win an important group in the Scottish electorate.

Much has been made of Mr Salmond's attempts to woo the Roman Catholic vote in Scotland for the SNP not least with calls to change the discriminatory Act of Settlement which prevents Catholics becoming the monarch or even being part of the Royal family.

He also made a rare trip back to Westminster to vote on bio-ethics and tightening abortion laws and in 2008 drew praise from Cardinal Keith O'Brien (pictured) when he announced that he wanted moral values taught in schools.

The stakes are high not least because the now Tory supporting Bishop Joe Devine has been trying to persuade his flock to abandon their traditional support for Labour, but more importantly because the Catholic vote is an identifiable group which could be the key to breaking Labour's historic grip on Glasgow and the West of Scotland.

Putting a firmly Christian anti-abortion candidate up in the largely Catholic Glasgow East, John Mason, helped tip the balance in a tight result against the Labour MSP Margaret Curran who supports abortion and experimentation on foetuses.

But it seems that his apparent support for stem cell research on the China trip, an issue that Cardinal O'Brien has described as "Frankenstein medicine", giving his blessing to collaboration between Edinburgh University and Chinese scientists, has undone some of his good work as this article in the Scottish Catholic Observer, Scotland's biggest Catholic newspaper, appears to suggest.

This was accompanied by a leading article quoting the Cardinal's Easter sermon which suggested that Scotland is on the verge of social collapse.

Which all goes to show that it is no simple matter to win over the support of large interest groups, although it was also perhaps misguided to believe that thousands of Catholic would be persuaded to vote on ethical arguments rather than the more practical issues of life.

David Maddox: Nationalist spring conference

In many ways the SNP's conference today started in Greyfriars Kirk in Edinburgh today rather than in its venue in Glasgow. Many in the party gathered friends and political foes to commemorate the life of one of Nationalism's greatest voices - Professor Sir Neil MacCormick (top right). More on the funeral in tomorrow's Scotsman.
But the official conference opening in the Glasgow Thistle Hotel was delivered by a more recent hero, John Mason, the man who won Glasgow East for the SNP in the stunning by-election last summer.
A contact in Labour has noted that "immitation is the best form of flattery" as Labour just a few weeks ago got their by-election hero of November, new Glenrothes MP Lindsay Roy to open their Scottish conference.
Some wag (apparently a member of the Labour student movement) has tried to liven up events by providing a conference bingo card.
On the link below are two bingo cards to mark off favourite phrases and names in conference speeches. The nice 'n easy one apparently gets delegates a tartan keyring, but the more difficult killer version's prize of shares in Iceland may not be quite as valuable.

Readers will note on the easy version that popular topics and people such as "Scotland's oil", "Glasgow East", "Homecoming", "independence" and "John Mason" are mentioned.

Meanwhile Education Secretary Fiona Hyslop, seen by many as a weak link, may not be chuffed to be on the killer version of unlikely embarrassing mentions along with "Kosovo", "Scottish Futures Trust", any country from the arc of prosperity (or bankruptcy) and any education pledge made in the 2007 election.
SNP%20Conference%20Bingo.pdf

David Maddox: For Foulkes Sake (8)

Lord George Foulkes, Baron of Cumnock, MSP for Lothians and First Lord of the Twittery has been at it again, as you can read in his column in today's Evening News.

He has wound up his opponents by suggesting that MPs and MSPs are underpaid and that lavish expenses are not as bad as they might seem.

But, there was a hint of irony in the response from the SNP claiming that the noble one was "out of touch."

In the second piece of the column, Lord Foulkes took a pop at his favourite target cybernats - the lunatic fringe of Scottish nationalism who stay up all night to write vitriol on newspaper websites. One of his complaints was that their grammar is appalling and they cannot spell.

This must be why the SNP press release condemning him misspelt his name "Fou8llkes." So maybe he is not as out of touch as they suggested.

David Maddox: Remembers the future

I spent part of my morning talking to a group of P7 primary school children (10 and 11-year-olds), about the Scottish Parliament and working here. They were members of a class who were visiting on the Holyrood education programme and it was good to see that the experience of being in the parliament and sitting through 30 minutes of debate had not been an endurance but an interesting experience for them.

I gather some of the class have even expressed an interest in becoming politicians and two of the pupils I spoke to want to be journalists. Another couldn't make up his mind if he wanted to be a policeman or a television journalist and another, who was impressed with the parliament building (until I told him about the leaks and cost), wanted to be an architect.

What it goes to show is that, contrary to popular opinion, it is not the intention of all our youngsters to become footballers, models or reality TV stars. And it should be said that these were not privileged children from a private school, but a pupils from good state primary in Edinburgh.

The experience of visiting the parliament then was a very positive one for them and could help to shape their dreams and aspirations.

The excellent Holyrood education programme which allows for hundreds of school pupils to have this experience each year is unfortunately over subscribed and schools have to book early or not at all more often than not.

Which put a whole new perspective for me on the rather unseemly row yesterday over whether it was right to suspend FMQs or indeed whether the whole day's business should have been cancelled.

Had the SNP got their way (although they claim it was the Presiding Officer Alex Fergusson's idea) and cancelled all parliamentary business yesterday then there would have been nothing but a tour of the building with an empty chamber (pictured above) for those primary school children to experience.

For many that may be their one chance to have that sort of valuable experience and it would have been a shame if they had lost out for want of politicians wanting to make a short sighted decision, which I am sorry to say, seemed to have more to do with headlines than actual sorrow.

As sad as the helicopter tragedy was, people's lives are unfortunately curtailed in accidents almost everyday, yet their deaths are not taken as a reason to bring the business of democracy to a halt.

So while it was appropriate to mark the sad deaths of those 16 men, politicians should remember that life has to go on and that they should remember the living, in particular the children who are our future.

David Maddox: Who turned the lights out?

There was a members debate this evening to support the World Wildlife Fund’s Earth Hour 2009, which aims to encourage millions of people worldwide and across Scotland to switch off their lights for an hour at 8.30 pm on Saturday 28 March 2009, as an act of awareness on climate change and the need to tackle it.

The debate this evening was led by one of the promising new Nationalist MSPs Shirley-Anne Somerville (pictured top right), who represents the Lothians, which has a certain irony to it. This is because, as contacts in both Labour and the Conservatives have pointed out, the SNP, in their view seem intent on turning the lights out permanently in Scotland.

The thrust of the (well worn) argument is that the SNP's obsession with renewable energy from wind, wave and sun and outright opposition to nuclear will leave Scotland without a stable base supply of power. Only time will tell who is right, but if the SNP are wrong then the results could literally send Scotland back to the dark ages.

But the fear of "the lights going out" is hardly a new one to throw at voters. Tony Blair and Labour suggested all sorts of cataclysmic outcomes if the SNP took power in Holyrood. However, after almost two years we are yet to see the four horsemen of the Apocalypse descend on the country.

No doubt Labour remembered well how the idea of turning the lights out managed to put off supporters in 1992 with the infamous front page of The Sun on election day (pictured bottom right), although in that case it was the last person to leave the country who was being asked to press the switch.

David Maddox: Dad's Army routs the Nats in new Battle of Stirling

If there is one group that seems to have the beating of Alex Salmond and the SNP it is Scotland's pensioners.
In November, furious over the increased charges on home care by the SNP led Fife Council, pensioners turned out in their thousands to stop the Nationalists from taking the Glenrothes by-election and dealt Mr Salmond is most humiliating defeat since coming to power in Holyrood in 2007. It perhaps did not help that the SNP candidate, Peter Grant, was the council leader responsible for the unpopular policy.
Now another one of the SNP select - Stirling Council leader Graham Houston (recently appointed by his party colleagues in the Scottish Government to a plum post in charge of the Scottish Qualifications Authority) - has also been done in by the grey army.
It appears his administration wanted to close down some care homes which provoked a bit of a stooshie, so much so that the Mr Houston and his colleagues backed down.
But to mark the triumph Stirling own version of Dad's Army -called Stirling's Homes Guard - made a montage of the bungling councillors on a picture of the original sitcom's cast (above) and recorded a song which can be listened to on their website or by clicking on their new words provided below - Who do you think you're kidding, Mr Houston?

Who did you think you were kidding, Mr Houston,

Thinking we were on the run.

We are the folks who have stopped your unfair game,

We are the folks who have made you think again,

So, who did you think you were kidding, Mr Houston,

Trying to close our care homes down.

Provost Wood's been off to Nova Scotia for a jaunt.

But recent bad publicity he surely didnae want. So ...

Chorus

Our man Steven Paterson claimed it was all okay.

A big consultant told him what to do then ran away. So...

Chorus

Houston said if he'd've asked then we'd've said, "Oh, no!"

Instead he pressed full steam ahead until we shouted, "Whoa!"

Chorus

K.P.M.G. what have they to do with all this fuss?

Think sev'ral hundred thousand pounds and then you'll have it sussed. So...

Chorus

Lots of people thought that the decision wisnae fair.

They soon began to protest just to show how much they care. So ...

Chorus

They wrote to the Observer and our paper did them proud

By showing that the folks of Stirling never will be cowed. So ...

Chorus

On the telly, in the press, boy, they were everywhere.

They had the town's administration tearing out their hair. So ...

Chorus

Houston said it was the right decision all along.

How could he and his cronies get it so completely wrong? So...

Chorus

On nineteenth March in just four weeks we got a chance to see

Our care homes saved by people power and true democracy. So ...

Who did you think you were kidding, Mr Houston,

Thinking we were on the run.

We are the folks who have stopped your unfair game,

We are the folks who have made you think again,

So, who did you think you were kidding, Mr Houston,

Trying to close our care homes down.

Trying to close our care homes down.

Trying to close our care homes down.

Words - The Band of Stirling's Homes Guard

Performed by The Band of Stirling's Homes Guard

David Maddox: Offside MP - the evidence

Following previous posts on the Steamie regarding how fundamentalism and gradualism in the SNP ranks appears to have gravitated to football from a previous divide over a referendum, I have been sent picture evidence of Western Isles MP Angus MacNeil's gradualist tendencies.

If you look carefully at the team picture above of the GB Parliament team against the US Embassy you will see Mr MacNeil hiding on the back row fourth from the left. Quite a serious let down for his party's opposition to a GB team in the 2012 London Olympics.

My contact who sent me this speculated that Mr MacNeil, more famous for reporting Tony Blair to the police for cash for honours, may get "excommunicated shortly" for his backsliding.

As mentioned previously, others have taken a more principled stand, not least Scottish Government party spin doctor Will McLeish, who as a student footballer turned down the opportunity to take part in the GB team.

David Maddox: Why does Labour appear to revel in the economic ruin of other countries?

The answer to the above question is simple- it always applies to countries in the SNP's famous Arc of Prosperity.
Of course, the downfall of Iceland, Ireland et al (with possible exception of Norway) allows them to say that all the models the SNP have for an independent Scotland have proven to be hopelessly flawed and simply underlines the point that Scotland is better off in the Union.
Admittedly, the SNP has been made to look silly for playing up these countries as models of economic paradise for small nations. The success stories are still on the SNP website.
But, there does seem to be a gloating note in Labour press releases, which if I were Icelandic or Irish I might feel a bit miffed about. One always gets the feeling that they are itching for Norway to go under too. There was the incident involving the anti-terror laws and Icelandic assets too.


The latest press release came today undeer the name of Labour Dumfries and Galloway MP Russell Brown (pictured right) entitled: Arc of insolvency continues to embarrass Salmond.
In it he notes that interest rates in Iceland have today been cut to 17%.
“The fact that interest rates in Iceland are 34 times higher than in Scotland shows that we benefit from being part of the UK," he said.
“It’s not that big countries are immune from the world financial crisis – look at America – but big countries have the strength to weather the storm better.
“Today’s news is another embarrassment for Alex Salmond and his arc of insolvency. His belief that Scotland should be more like Iceland is utter nonsense.”

Given the appalling mess we find ourselves across the world, a little more solidarity with smaller countries might not go amiss.

David Maddox: Those were the days

There is a fascinating piece by David Torrance in today's Scotsman (page 42) on the 79 Group, set up largely by young firebrands such as Alex Salmond, Kenny MacAskill, Stewart Stevenson and Roseanna Cunningham in the SNP to promote the idea of a Scottish Socialist Republic.
Of course its historical importance is that it modernised the SNP and provided the core of its future leadership. All the above are after all now ministers and Wee Eck is ensconced in Bute House.
But the above picture dug up by Torrance has provided much amusement in the media tower at Holyrood. It has Stewart Stevenson and Kenny MacAskill leading a conference walkout in 1982 because the party was not socialist enough. If you look carefully current Highland MSP Rob Gibson is there too, fifth down the line.
As we can also see those when the days of kilts and Scotland football shirts were still de rigueur in the unreconstructed SNP.
But the amusement was provided by the fashion of Mr Stevenson who depending on which hack you talk to looks like a hired hand for a Colombian drug baron (what was in that brief case?), an also-ran in the 1982 Scottish Che Guevara look alike competition or, rather cruelly, Peter Sutcliffe (the Yorkshire Ripper), pictured right.
Anybody who knows what was in that brief case please get in touch.

David Maddox: Spin doctor on-side in the great football debate

MSPs were in the presence of greatness today, although probably most of them did not realise it. Scottish football legend Graeme Souness (pictured right) was in Holyrood's stands for First Minister's questions.

Afterwards he explained: "I'm Scottish and I thought it was about time I visited the place."

The European Cup winner with Liverpool, who also forged a successful career in Italy, may not have been all the MSPs' favourite football figure, especially the Celtic supporters who remember his days as manager of Rangers.

But he remained diplomatically quiet on one of the subjects in general questions which came up shortly before FMQs, the great debate on the GB football team in the 2012 London Olympics.

A question asked by Nationalist MSP Christine Graeme on former Scotland manager Craig Brown's petition against the UK government's insistence that a GB football team will be fielded, brought the usual outraged response from party colleague and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon with its apocalyptic message for Scottish football's independence. She promised that the Scottish Government would give a full response to the Petitions Committee.

Now this may be a round about way of coming to the main point, but what we have here may be a new definition of the old and apparently outdated descriptions of SNP members being divided between gradualists and fundamentalists.

The old definition was between those who wanted a referendum for independence and those who just wanted independence without asking anybody, most now sign up to the gradualist referendum view. But the split is now perhaps clearer on the issue of greatest national importance - football.

The other day my colleague Gerri Peev pointed out in on the Steamie how the backsliding SNP MP Angus MacNeil (pictured left) has let the side down a bit by becoming part of the GB parliamentary team - a footballing gradualist no less.

But, it seems that other party members are less willing to drop their principles for a game of footie.

It turns out that former SFA press officer Will McLeish, now one of the Scottish Government special advisers (ie a party spin doctor paid for by the state), who looks like he would fit well into a 1980s team photo, is a very talented footballer.

As part of the all-conquering Scottish universities team, Mr McLeish's name was first on the team sheet. So good was the team that seven of them, including our eponymous hero were selected for the GB University team to play in the World Student Games in Sicily.

Mr McLeish, who was brought up south of the border in Worcester, told me: "The SFA said we couldn't go so we refused to be part of the team. But I would not have gone anyway out of principle because I don't recognise GB as a country."

Now that's real Nationalism!

But it has to be said that Mr McLeish rather spoils the affect by being a devoted member of the Union Flag waving Rangers' fan club and a regular at Ibrox.

I wonder if he joins in with the singing of Rule Britannia.

David Maddox: Many questions, double standards (2) - Just Labour paranoia?

Had a note from one of the spin doctors for the SNP parliamentary party in Holyrood about Labour's allegations of devious goings on by the Nationalists with written parliamentary questions. See yesterday's blog for details.
She is brief and to the point.
"Much as Labour's paranoia is a compliment, we have better things to do with our time," she said.

David Maddox: Many questions, double standards (2)

Just following up on my colleague Hamish Macdonell's blog earlier on the SNP and their alleged aversion to oppositon MSPs putting down written questions.
The party of Scottish Government appear, according to some in Labour, to have taken up a new tactic to nobble their opponents, particularly their would-be nemisis - Lord George Foulkes (pictured right), Baron of Cumnock, MSP for the Lothians and First Lord of the Twittery.
The SNP cunning plan supposedly is to get one of their backbenchers to put down a near identical question to one tabled say by the noble Lord George after he has submitted his for answer.
They then answer the question from afore mentioned backbencher and send the oppositon MSP an answer referring him to the answer given to the party lackey.
This means that their backbencher gets the answer 24 hours before, but, if the SNP MSP Ian McKee's press release on questions is to be believed, it also costs the tax payer almost £100 for the extra question.
An example of this is below. A question put down by Lord George on February 26 for First Minister Alex Salmond and then a near identical one put down by SNP backbencher Nigel Don (pictured left) on March 4. The answers were given by Michael Russel, the new minister for external affairs, on March 5.

S3W-21418 - George Foulkes (Lothians) (Lab) (Date Lodged Thursday, February 26, 2009): To ask the Scottish Executive what engagements the First Minister undertook during his visit to the United States of America; what topics were dealt with in each case, and whether he proposes to make a statement on these matters.
Answered by Michael Russell (Thursday, March 05, 2009): I refer the member to the answer to question S3W-21578 on 5 March 2009. All answers to written parliamentary questions are available on the Parliament''s website, the search facility for which can be found at http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/Apps2/Business/PQA/Default.aspx.


S3W-21578 - Nigel Don (North East Scotland) (SNP) (Date Lodged Wednesday, March 04, 2009): To ask the Scottish Executive whether it will report on the main outcomes of the First Minister’s recent visit to the United States of America.
Answered by Michael Russell (Thursday, March 05, 2009): The First Minister made a two day visit to Washington DC last week to raise Scotland's profile in the US; to strengthen relationships with key policymakers, particularly in the new administration, and to promote the Year of Homecoming in one of Scotland's biggest tourist markets.

The First Minister met with important figures in the new US administration. The First Minister's meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton marked the deepening friendship between our two nations and provided a good basis for further on-going dialogue in important areas of mutual interest, such as climate change and Scotland's renewable energy potential. The First Minister also met with Dr Christina Romer, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, to discuss efforts to promote economic recovery, the US stimulus package, and possible areas for future policy discussion and cooperation between the US and Scotland.

The First Minister's visit to the United States coincided with the launch of a new Scottish Caucus in the US Senate. The newly announced Caucus is one of very few in the US Senate and reflects the ability and efforts of Senator Jim Webb (D-Virginia) and his colleagues. With 30 US Senators “ a third of the Senate “ now joining the 50 members of the Friends of Scotland Caucus in the House of Representatives, Scotland now has a significant asset to promote our long-term interests in the United States.

In addition, the First Minister hosted a reception to promote scotch whisky, delivered a lecture at Georgetown University, and gave the keynote address at a prestigious symposium on the life and works of Robert Burns, at the Library of Congress. He also undertook various media engagements to publicise the Year of Homecoming and to promote key Scottish industries such as renewable energy, tourism and food and drink, in an effort to spur economic recovery in Scotland.