David Maddox: The Numbers Game (24) - Scotland at odds with itself

So with the SNP's big show this morning the bookmakers have again been the first to deliver their verdicts on the chances of independence or even a referendum being achieved.

First came Ladbrokes within minutes of the launch of the white paper. It is offering:
2/1 on a referendum on Scottish Independence before 2015
20/1 on Scotland to become independent of the UK before 2015

Paddy Power's odds have just landed offering:
8/1 on Scotland to gain full independence by 2015
7/1 on a referendum on full independence to be held in 2010

The only one of those bets worth even thinking about is independence before 2015 at 20/1 but even then you would probably be wasting your money.
The odds reflect the fact that a referendum will be blocked by the pro-Union parties before 2011 and anything further for the SNP depend on Mr Salmond and his cohorts becoming the biggest party in the 2011 Holyrood election and the Lib Dems agreeing to a referendum and having enough votes between them and the Greens to force one.
It is still possible that in his dotage Alex Salmond may look back to Wendy Alexander's "bring it on!" invitation when his party's popularity was at its height and realise it was the great opportunity missed.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game returns

Things are getting so bad for Gordon Brown that bookmakers have now started taking bets on how badly the public think of him.
Paddy Power is asking punters to put their money whether their mouths are on the beleaguered PM's latest Yougov approval rating and the one he will have at the next election.
Even though he claims that he has now fixed the economy, I fancy any of the odds 4/1, 6/1 or 8/1 for the various estimates below 20%, especially after his latest McAvity act on the Lockerbie bomber.
Here are the odds:

Gordon Brown September Approval Rating
8/1 10% or Less
6/1 11% - 15%
4/1 16% - 20%
11/8 21% - 25%
3/1 26% - 30%
9/2 Over 30%

Gordon Brown’s Approval Racing At The Next General Election
6/1 10% or Less
5/2 11% to 20%
11/8 20% to 30%
7/2 30% to 40%
8/1 Over 40%