Chris Mackie: Bring it on (or maybe not)
If this interesting snippet from James McIntyre of the New Statesman (http://www.newstatesman.com/2009/06/brown-labour-minister) is to be believed, it would certainly put the Labour cat amidst the SNP pigeons:
"Meanwhile, a separate idea, bold if controversial, is quietly being considered for the same election day: a referendum in Scotland on independence. This reflects a rueful and secretly held sense among some in New Labour that devolution was a mistake which emboldened nationalists and strengthened the hand of Alex Salmond, the Scottish National Party’s leader and Scotland’s First Minister. Brown has long fretted about British identity and about how people increasingly define themselves as English, Welsh and Scottish, rather than as British.
A referendum would call the Nationalists’ bluff. It would be a high-risk strategy. But Brown would be gambling on the majority of Scots who continue to recognise that the social, economic and political union remains much more than the sum of its parts."
While no doubt being supported by Wendy Alexander ("bring it on" etc), I agree that the move would carry extreme risk for a Prime Minister not known for his bold decisions. On the plus side for Brown, taking control of the referendum would allow him to dictate its terms and could embolden the "no" campaign before the SNP has a chance to make inroads at the Westminster elections. The likely upsurge in the turnout would also help to get the Labour vote out - something it manifestly had problems with in the Euro elections.
Looking at it with a more Machiavellian eye, if we assume the Labour party expects to lose the next election, a referendum on election day could give an incoming Team Cameron the mother of all constitutional headaches to deal with should the Scottish people vote "yes".
But is he really brave enough to take the Nationalists on in this way? I suspect he has neither the gumption nor the resources to fight two battles simultaneously, especially with the stakes so high. After all, even if he won the referendum, it is unlikely he would be in office to enjoy the political benefits it would bring - those, you suspect would be David Cameron's to savour.
"Meanwhile, a separate idea, bold if controversial, is quietly being considered for the same election day: a referendum in Scotland on independence. This reflects a rueful and secretly held sense among some in New Labour that devolution was a mistake which emboldened nationalists and strengthened the hand of Alex Salmond, the Scottish National Party’s leader and Scotland’s First Minister. Brown has long fretted about British identity and about how people increasingly define themselves as English, Welsh and Scottish, rather than as British.
A referendum would call the Nationalists’ bluff. It would be a high-risk strategy. But Brown would be gambling on the majority of Scots who continue to recognise that the social, economic and political union remains much more than the sum of its parts."
While no doubt being supported by Wendy Alexander ("bring it on" etc), I agree that the move would carry extreme risk for a Prime Minister not known for his bold decisions. On the plus side for Brown, taking control of the referendum would allow him to dictate its terms and could embolden the "no" campaign before the SNP has a chance to make inroads at the Westminster elections. The likely upsurge in the turnout would also help to get the Labour vote out - something it manifestly had problems with in the Euro elections.
Looking at it with a more Machiavellian eye, if we assume the Labour party expects to lose the next election, a referendum on election day could give an incoming Team Cameron the mother of all constitutional headaches to deal with should the Scottish people vote "yes".
But is he really brave enough to take the Nationalists on in this way? I suspect he has neither the gumption nor the resources to fight two battles simultaneously, especially with the stakes so high. After all, even if he won the referendum, it is unlikely he would be in office to enjoy the political benefits it would bring - those, you suspect would be David Cameron's to savour.
Labels: Chris Mackie, David Cameron, Gordon Brown, New Statesman, referendum, SNP
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17:28
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