David Maddox: The Numbers Game (13) - unlucky for the Speaker

It did not take much of a soothsayer to predict the demise of the Speaker Michael Martin and the bookmakers were ready with their odds on his successor.
The odds reflect the openness and uncertainty of what will happen next with no overwhelming favourite. MPs as yet appear unsure whether they want a short term reformer like Ann Widdecombe (12/1) who will stand down at the next election or somebody to lead the next parliament with moral authority.
Some like David Davis (33/1) and Ms Widdecombe have ruled themselves out, but traditionally this is a qualification for the job.
The favourite is a respected former Tory minister Sir George Young (4/1), who actually lost out to Mr Martin because he was the front bench choice.
Sir Alan Haselhurst (12/1), the Conservative deputy Speaker, may have been considered a shoein had he not got caught up in the expenses scandal himself. Likewise, Sir Menzies Campbell (14/1) appears to have blown his chances with £1,500 for a consultation with an interiror decorator who apparently happened to be a friend of his daughter's.
There seems to be a view that it is the Tories' turn but in a secret ballot anything could happen.
One good long shot might be Labour MP Kate Hoey (66/1) a leading voice for reform who inadvertently became one of the reasons for Mr Martin's demise after he gave her a public dressing down.
But of the awkward squad from Labour's ranks a very good bet may be Frank Field (10/1).
Another possibility may be the Independent MP for Wyre Forest Dr Richard Taylor (12/1), who seems to be clean and of the highest integrity, something in short supply in the Commons apparently.
One unlikely long shot may be Gordon Brown at 250/1 if he's looking for another job, although his dithering on expenses may count against him.
Here are Ladbrokes' odds with Conservatives in blue, Labour red, Lib Dems orange and the Independent in black. No SNP names are in the running.


Sir George Young 4/1
Alan Beith 5/1
John Bercow 6/1
Frank Field 10/1
Sylvia Heal 10/1
Ann Widdecombe 12/1
Richard Taylor 12/1
Sir Alan Haselhurst 12/1
Vince Cable 12/1
Richard Shepherd 14/1
Sir Menzies Campbell 14/1
Sir Michael Lord 14/1
Sir Patrick Cormack 14/1
Ken Clarke 16/1
Sir Malcolm Rifkind 25/1
Tony Wright 25/1
David Davis 33/1
Edward Garnier 33/1
Stephen Pound 40/1
Chris Mullin 50/1
Damian Green 50/1
Jack Straw 50/1
Jacqui Lait 50/1
Keith Simpson 50/1
Kate Hoey 66/1
Norman Baker 66/1
Diane Abbot 100/1
Nick Palmer 200/1
Gordon Brown 250/1

David Maddox: Whither Paul Martin?

Anybody who heard Speaker Michael Martin's statement to the Commons a few minutes ago will know that he is holding on desperately to his job and his seat.

But one interesting question it raises up here is on the future of his son, Glasgow Springburn MSP Paul Martin (pictured right).

It has long been open gossip in Holyrood that the Speaker was hoping to pass on his Glasgow North East seat to his son. If it were true it would seem to be an example of the sort of self-interested practice which has come under question in recent days.

The question is now whether the constituency party would want to now put the Speaker's son in his place given the bad publicity that is now attached to the Martin name, although that has absolutely nothing to do with Paul Martin.

And if the Speaker does step down and as a result quits as an MP, which many think would be the inevitable consequence, then who would want to fight Glasgow North East for Labour?

Given what happened in Glasgow East and the recent opinion polls added to the lower level of damage to the Nationalists than Labour from the expenses scandal, would all point to another by-election victory for the SNP.

David Maddox: Why are the Nationalists so keen to defend the Speaker?

Tomorrow (Monday) is a defining day for the future of the embattled Speaker Michael Martin (pictured right) as he makes as statement on expenses to MPs and faces his growing number of critics.

But one corner where he does have some friends appears to be among his historic die hard opponents in the SNP

This blog has noted before how SNP's Westminster leader Angus Robertson gave his backing to the Speaker Martin at another time of beleaguerment.

And this week his colleague Glasgow East hero John Mason (pictured below left) has been saying the same thing as the same thing on Good Morning Scotland and on the Politics Show today.

It is surprising considering that there is little love lost between Scottish Labour (especially of its West of Scotland variety) and the Nationalists. It is not even as though Mr Mason, unlike Mr Robertson, has had his snout in the trough.

Both Mason and Robertson at different times have pointed to the snobbery against the working class Glaswegian Speaker, but also paid tribute to his fairness.

"He always calls me to speak when I want to," said Mr Mason today, echoing the words of his Westminster leader a few months ago.

But interestingly of the Scottish contingent only the Lib Dems have taken a pop. the sole Scottish Conservative David Mundell has also supported Speaker Martin.

All of which gives the impression that possibly there is concern within the Scottish ranks cross parties that their opportunities may be more limited if he is replaced by a new Speaker from south of the border.

David Maddox: SNP ride to the Speaker's defence?

You can tell we're heading into the yuletide period because this is a remarkably sparce Sunday for politics.
The two main political items in the Sunday papers were Lord Mandelson's attempts to bully the Merger Action Group to drop their case against the Lloyds/ HBOS deal and Speaker Michael Martin insisting that he intends to "go on and on" in his current position despite the the fiasco over the arrest of Tory MP Damien Green.
We all know what happened to the Iron Lady when she announced she would go on and on, but it seems Speaker Martin is getting some support from surprising quarters.
On Friday I had lunch with Angus Robertson, the SNP's leader in Westminster. Now we all know that there is little love lost between Scottish Labour and the Nationalists, both parties would rather work with the Tories than with each other.
But, whilst acknowledginging Mr Martin is in deep trouble, Mr Robertson launched a stoic defence of the embattled Speaker whom he said had been the victim of a long class driven campaign by snobs who resented a boy from the back streets of Glasgow taking one of the highest offices in the land.
He also said that unlike some previous Speakers, Michael Martin always called the Nationalists to speak on statements and gave them a very fair hearing in the Commons. Added to that he said he was wonderful at conducting parliamentary events for visitors adding a really personal and moving touch to them.
In a weekend where a Labour MP has called for his resignation, it appears Mr Martin may then have friends in some less than expected paces.

David Maddox: Holyrood and the police

Not to be outdone by their colleagues in Westminster, we have just learnt at the back end of First Minister's questions that MSP want their own protacol on when and how police should be allowed to search their offices and arrest them.
This is of course MSPs trying to spread the continuing furor over the arrest of Damien Green, the Tories' immigration, spokesman by the Old Bill in Westminster.
In the exhanges with labour leader Iain Gray, First Minister Alex Salmond made a quip about how his Justice Secretary, Kenny MacAskill, will not be calling in the police to arrest oppositon MSPs. The unspoken meaning was "unlike the Labour government in Westminster."
Mike Rumbles, the Lib Dems' chief whip in Holyrood, made a point of order at the end of FMQs repeating a request he made to Alex Fergusson, the Presiding Officer, that he should make a statement and issue his guidance, as was done by Speaker Michael Martin yesterday.
Apparently Mr Fergusson is considering the matter.
There was a further intervention by former Labour First minister Jack McConnell asking that the guidance is given as a statement to the full parliament.