David Maddox: The Numbers Game (29) - Bookies' Balls up

As regular readers may know, The Steamie has at times tried to help you add a few pounds to your pockets by offering a tip on the political betting front with mixed success.
Those of you who put money on Iain Gray to become Labour leader may appreciate The Steamie's advice, while those who went for Ann Widdicombe to be Speaker may not.
But we've had some interesting odds regarding who will be the next Chancellor to give a Budget from our old friends at Ladbrokes. Please note these odds are ahead of tonight's debate and may change at 9.10pm, I'm reliably informed.

George Osborne 2/5 (fav)
Alistair Darling 5/1
Ed Balls 10/1
Vince Cable 16/1
Ken Clarke 16/1
Philip Hammond 20/1
Gordon Brown 100/1

So tip of the day would be to put your money on Balls.
With Labour closing the gap there is now a decent chance it will be the biggest party and may even have a majority.
If that were to happen Gordon Brown has already made it clear that he wants to replace Alistair Darling with Ed Balls, despite the fact that many people now believe the current Chancellor is the last remaining minister with any credibility and certainly could claim to have won an election for Labour.

This also applies to the newly published odds on the next Labour leader with the very same Ed Balls at 14/1. Again this tip is based on the fact that the Brownites would support him against the Blairites' David Milliband (the 5/2 favourite). He would also probably have the backing of the major unions including the dreaded Unite.

I'm not just saying this because he is a fellow Norwich City fan, but while Ed Balls is reportedly incredibly unpopular in the Commons he has enough powerful supporters and hangers on to make both sets of odds from Ladbrokes look pretty generous.

Perhaps the clever bet is to actually back Ed Balls on both. Whilst it is extremely unlikely but not impossible to clean up on both it makes a decent each way bet on Mr Balls' ultimate fate based on whether Labour win or lose the election.

Here are the rest of the runners and riders to replace Gordon Brown as Labour leader:

David Miliband 5/2
Ed Miliband 5/1
Alan Johnson 6/1
Harriet Harman 8/1
Peter Mandelson 8/1
Alistair Darling 12/1
Ed Balls 14/1
Jon Cruddas 14/1
Jack Straw 25/1
John Denham 25/1
Andy Burnham 25/1
Hilary Benn 33/1
Yvette Cooper 33/1
Shaun Woodward 50/1
Jim Murphy 50/1
Douglas Alexander 66/1
Peter Hain 66/1
John McDonnell 66/1
Liam Byrne 66/1
Hazel Blears 100/1
Tony Blair 100/1
Alastair Campbell 500/1
Cherie Blair 500/1

David Maddox: Party fundraising

Well if you haven't got Lords Ashcroft or Paul, a friendly union or, in the Lib Dems case, a criminal to fund your election campaign then you have to get down to some good old fashioned fundraising events.
Take for example this invitation circulated around Westminster by two Labour candidates Kerry McCarthy (MP for Bristol East and Labour's Twitter tsar) and Lucy Powell (candidate for Manchester Withington and apparently pal of Eddie Izzard).
The e-mail managed to get sent to all and sundry, including a few political opponents which is why it ended up with me.
The guest of honour and main speaker at this event in a posh London restaurant is no less than International Secretary come Paisley and Renfrewshire South MP Douglas Alexander.

Here's the e-mail (or part of it):
This is your last chance to purchase tickets for tomorrow night’s fundraiser with guest of honour the Rt Hon Douglas Alexander and other special guests!

We have some exciting raffle prizes that are included below! We do hope you are able to make it and forward on to other friends and colleagues that might be interested and encouraged to attend as well.

Many thanks,
Kerry & Lucy

Raffle Prizes:
Bottles of Newcastle Brown Ale signed by Nick Brown and Gordon Brown
Gordon Brown books signed by the Prime Minister
Framed copy of Gordon Brown’s “I will do my utmost” speech with photo of him and Sarah Brown, to be personalised by both.
Auction Prizes:
Bottle of House of Commons whisky signed by Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Michael Foot
Minimum Wage Bill signed by Gordon Brown, Neil Kinnock, Michael Foot, Jack Jones and Bill Morris
Historic Labour postcards framed and signed by Andy Burnham, Ed Balls, Hilary Benn, Ed Miliband, Alan Johnson, Frank Dobson, David Miliband
Set of five historic Labour postcards framed and signed by Cabinet Ministers Ed Milliband, Jim M, Nick Brown, Tessa Jowell and Jack Straw

Now the sharp eyed among you, including my source, will note that of all the ministers who have helped with the raffle prizes for this event (£40 a ticket by the way, discounted to £380 for a table for 10), the one whose name is not in fully is Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy.
Here are possible reasons why he is simply Jim M:

1. They are English and don't know or care who he is.
2. Jim M is such a laid back character that he doesn't feel the need to be dignified with a full name.
3. He is providing the post match entertainment with a take-off of his near namesakes Boney M. Anybody for Ra Ra Gordsputin...?

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (28) - What is the Cameron effect?

Fascinating Yougov poll around today with the Scottish sample a decent size at 562. It gives the first taste of political opinion since David Cameron's visit to Scotland for the Tory conference in Perth and the back end of last week.

Con 21 Lab 37 Lib Dem 15 SNP 21

According to Scotland Votes, the Scotsman's election calculation partner website, this provides the following results in a general election for Scotland (changes from 2005 in brackets) :

Con 2 (+1) Lab 39 (-2) Lib Dem 11 (no change) SNP 7 (+1)

Amazingly different polling results to 2005 but very little change with just Ochil and South Perthshire going from Labour to the SNP with Labour also losing Dumfries and Galloway to the Tories.
But the important thing is that makes a lot more results very close and could see many more seats changes hands.
This is shown by the different prediction from Electoral Calculus:

Con 4 (+3) Lab 39 (-2) Lib Dem 9 (-2) SNP 7 (+1)

It suggests that the Tories also gain Argyll and Bute and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk from the Lib Dems on top of the gain for them and the SNP predicted above.

But what this poll really shows is that the Tories are in play for all 11 targets, including ones held by the SNP such as Angus and Perth and North Perthshire. But it does not really take the Tories beyond the margins of support they have been polling in for a long time now, which leaves a question mark over the Cameron tartan effect of last week even though 21 per cent is at the high end of Conservative support in Scotland.
It does illustrate again how the boundaries work in favour of Labour and the Lib Dems and against the Conservatives and SNP.
But what it does is suggest that in Westminster terms at least the SNP vote is collapsing and that they are leaking support to Labour.
If this is true it is a victory for the Labour tacticians in Scotland who have relied on what they believe is an innate anti-Toriness in Scotland and are trying to squeeze the Nationalist vote by portraying a Westminster election as a competition between the two big parties.

Chris Mackie: Comment is free?

Last week, an exhibition of photographs was displayed in the Parliament detailing the suffering of the Palestinian people wrought, campaigners maintain, by an oppresive Israeli state.

Alongside some very graphic images of seriously injured children and information about the Scotland to Gaza Medical Appeal run by Edinburgh Direct Aid was a comments book, dutifully completed by various visitors passing the exhibition stand.

Most of the comments were sympathetic, focusing on the very real human tragedy on show. Others were critical of the UK government's response to the Palestinian question, but one in particular caught the eye:

“Israel must be (and will be inshallah) wiped off from the earth!” wrote Raza from Glasgow, closely echoing the sentiments of the former leader of Iran's Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, whose name was placed in brackets at the end of the quote.

The remarks (see above) have caused some consternation in Holyrood, and the Tories' Jackson Carlaw has now laid down a parliamentary motion calling on MSPs to join in condemnation of the sentiments ahead of Holocaust Memorial Day which takes place on 27 January.

The event's sponsor, Labour MSP Pauline McNeill has echoed his concerns and contacted the organisers of the exhibit drawing their attention to the matter.

But the comments and the response raise some interesting questions about free speech and how it should apply in settings such as this. Hosting such a politically sensitive and - in terms of the images on show - shocking exhibition was almost certain to provoke some form of reaction, especially when it concerned the diplomatic hot potato that is the Palestine/Israeli situation. So, in many ways we should perhaps not be surprised at the thoughts on show.

In fact, it could be argued that to only attract one anti-Israeli comment with such a provocative and emotive set of images was actually something of a triumph.

Many of my colleagues were unconvinced at the significance of this, arguing that the principles of free speech should be upheld. But seeing extremist comment laid bare in the heart of the Parliament, where dozens of MSPs, government ministers, press, civil servants and visitors pass every day is still disquieting, especially when you consider that "Raza" could well be a school pupil, given the number of kids that circulate the building each day and peruse the rolling schedule of exhibits.

Chris Mackie: A bluffer's guide

As the SNP education brief begins life in a post Fiona Hyslop world, the clear line coming from the opposition parties is that her demotion (ok, sacking) was an example of Alex Salmond blinking first in the latest stage of his Call-My-Bluff style of minority government.

That the opposition felt emboldened enough to stare him down in his latest threat to walk out was emblematic of the torrid seven days his government has experienced. A simmering dispute with local councils, a lukewarm response to the referendum plans and ongoing education travails all added up to make it a week to forget for Salmond and co.

It is certainly true that the reshuffle (alright, sacking) has emboldened the opposition benches - the number of gleeful Tories, LibDems and Labourites eating lunch in the Parliament's canteen yesterday was significantly higher than it usually is.

But Alex Salmond is nothing if not a canny operator and he may well have felt that his powder would be better left dry to help him through the forthcoming budget negotiations, especially as the political tide is flowing against him in the run up to Christmas.

Much more is at stake for the SNP in those deliberations, and to take his government to the brink for the sake of loyalty to a colleague would have left him with much less political capital to play with in the new session. Yes, his position is lessened by this climbdown, but to stake his government on an education secretary that was the very definition of "embattled" would have been denser than the 198 brochure used to herald the referendum Bill.

Expect to see more of this in the New Year, with or without the chairmanship or Robert Robinson.

David Maddox: Political betting

I received a slightly cocky e-mail this morning from a Labour spindoctor concerning his prospects of winning a bet the two of us have on the next general election.
At the start of the by-election he bet me £10 that the SNP will have less than 10 seats after the next general election.
And, according to his e-mail, after Labour's crushing defeat in Glasgow last night he is confident that I will be handing over a state sponsored RBS note some point next year.
I took the bet because I'm always happy to receive free money and my opinion has not changed from last night.
True, the SNP juggernaut came to a halt in Glenrothes and last night only confirmed that the breakthrough needed is still a long way off. The SNP will struggle to get Alex Salmond's target of 20 seats. It seems a long time ago now since the SNP were passing around a list showing that all Labour's seats bar one would fall to them on the basis of the Glasgow East swing.
However, they will gain seats. They managed to win six in 2005 with a mere 17.6% of the vote, they are now regularly polling above 30% in Westminster voting intentions and haven't dropped below 25%.
The other factor is that the Lib Dem vote appears to be disintegrating before our eyes. The party is running at around 12/13% in the polls (half what it was in 2005) and last night came a dismal sixth with just a handful of votes. Most of the disaffected Lib Dems appear to be going to the Nationalists and, to a lesser extent, the Tories.
As things stand my prediction for the SNP at the moment is 14 seats, four for the Tories, nine for the Lib Dems and 32 for Labour. Obviously, though, the chances are I will be very wrong.

Chris Mackie: Glasgow North East - the turnout

There is some typically insightful stuff from Mike Smithson at his ever fascinating Political Betting blog this afternoon. Despite near-universal predictions of a depressingly low number of people actually bothering to cast their votes in today's Glasgow North East poll, Mike has a decent stab at arguing that the official turnout could be surprisingly high.

He argues: "Just look what happened a year ago in the last by election where Gordon Brown campaigned. That was held in early November and we saw more than 52% of those on the electoral roll recorded as voting - which wasn’t that far short of the general election figure. "

This, the increased postal vote and the 42 per cent turnout in the Glasgow East poll has led Mike to put his money on the turnout being higher than 38 per cent.

Despite the weather in Glasgow holding up so far, I think this is slightly optimistic. The big issue he fails to tackle is the impact of the expenses scandal and the resultant voter apathy - a problem felt especially keenly in a constituency such as Glasgow North East. This effect will be exacerbated by the absence of any real political fight in the seat since Michael Martin became speaker. Numerous party workers have told us of the logistical problems they have faced during this campaign caused by the lack of any meaningful voter data or polling records on which to base their campaign strategy.

Things have not been helped, frankly, by the vague air of chaos around the whole enterprise caused by the existence of a number of no-hoper candidates all fighting for attention. That is undoubtedly a welcome sight in any democracy, but it has not helped any semblance of a pervasive narrative for the election break through to the media and subsequently, the voters.

The Glenrothes and Glasgow East fight were fascinating contests because they represented a clear referendum on the popularity of the Labour government. This contest has no such backdrop, despite the efforts of the SNP, and that is partly because of the number of competing voices shouting to be heard. There have been snatches of the BNP furore, a smidgen of red-faced socialist outrage and a touch of Tory toffage, but nothing that has dominated the news agenda throughout the campaign.

On the other hand, the increase in the postal vote will help, so it seems likely the doomsday predictions (see below post from David Maddox) will not materialise, I therefore confidently predict a turnout of around the 30 per cent mark and fully expect to be proved hopelessly wrong tomorrow morning.

Chris Mackie: Pwoud of the Wabour Party

So, Sir Alex Ferguson has lent his support to Labour candidate Willie Bain's campaign for the now imminent Glasgow North East by-election (see entry by Willie below).
Playing up his former role as a shop steward Sir Alex urged local voters to turn out for the Labour candidate, saying: "I always tell young players that being a footballer is the best job in the world. Yes, it’s hard work to reach the top but nothing to bringing up a family or running a household on a tight budget. As the only genuinely local candidate in this election, Willie understands what needs to be done."

Quite how significant the endorsement of a former Rangers player, born in Govan will prove in the Celtic steeped neighbourhoods of Springburn, only time will tell.

Sir Alex is by no means the first football figure to become involved in politics - Bill Shankly was a declared socialist - but his views are significantly more moderate than some others connected to the beautiful game...

Despite turning out for Celtic - a traditionally left-leaning club - former Italy striker Paolo Di Canio is a self-proclaimed fascist, who stoked controversy in Italy in the aftermath of a Rome derby in 2005, when he offered the Lazio "ultras" a straight arm salute. It was the third time he had made the gesture during that season, and earned him a £7,000 fine and a one game ban. In the wake of the salute Di Canio told an Italian news agency: "I am a fascist, not a racist."

At the other end of the spectrum, Oleguer Presas i Renom, the former Barcelona midfielder and avowed Catalan nationalist refuses to play for Spain or speak Spanish in public and was regularly booed in away grounds in La Liga because of his outspoken anti-Spanish government views. In 2007, he lost a boot sponsorship deal after writing an opinion piece in a Basque newspaper questioning the validity of the Spanish judicial system in dealing with a member of the terrorist group ETA.

As for Scotland, a trawl through the Scotsman archives throws up the following incendiary insight from Pat Nevin, the ex-Chelsea, Everton, Kilmarnock and Motherwell winger. When asked if he supported independence, he said:

"I am not a huge fanatic either way, though I am leaning towards independence - but it's not a fanatical 'let's do it tomorrow' and kick down the doors of parliament."

David Maddox: Don't count your chickens....

Labour have just put out a press release with the following subject title: "Words from the Prime Minister on Willie Bain's election"

I know Labour are confident about Willie Bain winning Glasgow North East, but perhaps they should wait for the voters to do their bit on Thursday before announcing the result.

Just to clear up any confusion these were not words from Gordon Brown prepared in the event of Mr Bain's anticipated victory, but comments from his morning briefing of journalists supporting his party's candidate.

Glasgow NE: Willie Bain, Labour. Sir Alex - united with team Labour

I was delighted to learn that Sir Alex Ferguson has decided to endorse my campaign for Glasgow North East.

As a Glasgow man himself, Sir Alex knows how the people of Glasgow think and feel. Despite his success, Sir Alex has always stayed true to his roots.

He knows that people need help now to get through these difficult times.

I think Sir Alex’s endorsement is a real boost my campaign. He is well respected by people here – and he knows a thing or two about running a good campaign.

You can head over to my website to see what he has to say. This is me at Petershill FC last week - in the rain.

Willie Bain
Labour's by-election candidate.

Glasgow North East: Willie Bain, Labour. Prime Minister visits Glasgow

I was delighted to welcome the Prime Minister to the constituency this afternoon.

Gordon and I visited North Glasgow College – a shining example of what Labour has achieved in the area. I’m proud that Gordon was so impressed with the building, and the opportunities that the college provides for people in my area.

It’s sad that some people want to talk down our community, but I think the college is a great example of the changes I have seen in my life here.

I’ve put some more information up on my website. The man in the photo with the Prime Minister is my dad (also Willie). He was really proud to meet the Prime Minister.

It was taken inside our campaign centre, which is in the old college building over the road from the new one. The building was opened by a former in 1909 by Earl Rosebery who was Prime Minister in the 1890s. The foyer contains a moving and sobering war memorial to the college students who died in the First World War.

Willie Bain
Labour’s Candidate in Glasgow North East

Glasgow NE: Willie Bain, Labour. Standing up for Glasgow.

I'm pleased to be taking part in this great idea by The Steamie to get people engaged with this by-election online.

Although I know not everyone uses the internet to access their news - I know lots of Glaswegians who are increasingly using it to find out what's going on and keep in touch with friends and family. I hope that by writing on here that I can help some of them understand more about me and my plans.

Despite a late night in the Newsnight studio I'm keen to hit the ground running this morning - talking to voters and hearing their concerns. I've lived in this area all my life - I think I'm the only candidate that can (honestly!) say that. I'm not a politician and I've never stood for election before but I'm proud of this area and I want to do my best for it.

The issue that people constantly raise with me on the door is their anger at the way the SNP is ripping off our city. Despite the SNP's budget going up by £600m this year they are giving extra money to some projects - but shortchanging Glasgow. It's amazing how many times people raise this when you speak to them. So I'm going out and about in the constituency today - knocking of people's doors and letting them know who I am and what I believe in.

I'm also meeeting with Andrew Adonis to tell him about the importance of good transport links to the Glasgow economy and the shockingly short-sighted decision of the SNP to cancel the airport rail link at a cost of 1000 jobs.

The other issue that people keep raising with me is about the SNP candidate fibbing about where he was born. Look, at the end of the day the real issue in this story is about trust. People's trust in politics is at an all time low. We have to start trying to restore that trust and that starts with people being able to believe the people that seek to represent them.

I've been clear with people what my top priorities are:

• stopping the SNP ripping off Galsgow and dishing out the money elsewhere
• cracking down on crime and anti-social behaviour - I've been running a carry a knife go to jail petition to get automatic jail sentences for knife criminals
• helping glasgow pensioners through tough times and fighting to protect jobs
• campaigning for better shops, better homes, and better buses

Thanks to everyone who is supporting me in this campaign. If you want to get in touch with me then you can email me at willie@williebain.com.

Best wishes

Willie Bain
Labour's candidate for Glasgow North East

David Maddox: Do the Lib Dems have anything to say?

Apparently not. It seems they turned down their chance to have a subject debate on Thursday, allegedly because they had nothing to table.

Labour have stepped into the breach with another planned stooshie on building schools and the Scottish Futures Trust. It will be interesting if education secretary Fiona Hyslop turns up to defend her record this time having ducked the last education debate. Needless to say Labour are already challenging her to come out of hiding.

But perhaps, she will take the line of the Lib Dems and decide again that the least said the better.

In fairness to the Lib Dems, I have at least received an explanation from them for their reticence.

The party's ever cheery spindoctor in parliament Jenny Stanning told me: "I've also checked about the party business debates - we only get four a year, not as many as Labour - so it's not really a case of taking turns. The Government offers slots to parties as part of the business programme and we decided that we'd prefer one of our four debate mornings to be later on in the session. Hope this clears up any mystery!"

Eddie Barnes - Recession Over. Scottish Labour need new excuse.

So that's it then. The IMF has declared this morning that the world recession is now over and the global economy is expanding again. It has raised its growth forecast for the global economy back above the 3% mark next year, and the UK's growth rate to 0.9%.

In the context of Scottish politics, and the proposed independence referendum, this rather lands Labour in it. Observers will recall the Scottish party's latest position on whether or not to back a referendum has been to say that it would be wrong to do so in the middle of a recession, but that after that it might not be a bad idea. This formulation was conceived entirely as a way of dodging the SNP's point that opposition to a referendum was anti-democratic. OK democracy is important, Labour was saying, but overcoming the recession was more so.

But the recession now appears to be over. Or at least it will be by the time the SNP lay their referendum bill next year. Which means that Labour's line is fast becoming defunct.

Of course Labour could simply say that they won't back a referendum because they don't want to have one. But the confidence-sapped party appears to be terrified of being cast by the SNP as opposing the right of the people to have their say. But if the spectre of a recession can no longer raised as an excuse for not supporting a referenum, then what can? You can be sure that the SNP will be quick to ask the question.

Eddie Barnes: Brown vs the media

Fresh from his combative performance at the party conference yesterday, Gordon Brown appears to have decided that along with the Conservatives, he is going to take on the media as well. The Prime Minister was in an unusually confrontational mood during an interview with Sky's Adam Boulton this morning, describing Boulton as "a political propagandist" and repeatedly accusing Sky's political editor of getting his facts wrong, and failing to ask the right questions.

Coming on the morning that Sky's Murdoch stablemate The Sun officially declared for the Conservatives, you can imagine why Brown might be a little sore at the media coverage he is receiving. It's all so unfair isn't it?....last week, he is lauded as World Statesman of the Year by Bono....this week, all the British press pack want to know is whether he's definitely going to cling on until the election date.

The Brown's are said to be furious about whay they see as the bias of the UK press pack. Newly self-cast as official underdog, it now looks as if the PM is preparing to cast the media as part of the great conspiracy trying to force a Conservative government upon the country. It's another of Brown's dividing lines: on the one side, there's him and the silent majority, who want to talk about the "issues that matter"; on the other, there's the media elite who are only interested in froth and personality.

Dangerous ground. It was never an either/or situation. The truth is that both personality and issues matter. Brown could take a leaf out of Lord Mandelson's book who has managed to turn the media's fascination with his own personality to his considerable political advantage.

None of this is that easy to take on board when you're facing the pummelling that Brown is getting at present. But it would be Prime Ministerial to try.

David Maddox: Was the Labour Party trying to tell Gordon Brown something?

M People's Moving on Up sounds pretty uplifting when you're a party staring defeat in the face, but on closer inspection it is an odd choice of song to play Gordon Brown off the stage with, perhaps in more ways then one.
Read for yourself:

You've done me wrong, your time is up
You took a sip (just a sip) from the devils cup.
You broke my heart, there's no way back.
Move right outta here baby.
Go and pack your bags.
Just who do you think you are?
Stop acting like some kind of star.
Just who do you think you are?
Take it like a man baby if that's what you are.

[chorus]
'Cos I'm moving on up.
You're moving on out.
Movin' on up.
Nothing can stop me.
Moving on up.
You're moving on out.
Time to break free.
Nothing can stop me,
Yeah.

They brag a man has walked in space,
but you can't even find my place.
Mmm there ain't nothing (not a thing) you can do
'cos I've had enough of me baby being part of you.

Just who do you think you are?
This time you've gone too far.
Just who do you think you are?
Take it like a man baby if that's what you are.

[chorus]

David Maddox: Labour and the Brown stuff - aka The Numbers Game (21)

More and more it seems that bookmakers are providing the first early comment on the political fortunes of parties at key events.
This is because they track the bets punters make during big speeches
PaddyPower has just sent through a fascinating analysis of the affects of Gordon Brown's speech on the odds as it inspired people to lay bets on everything from his party's popularity after the conference to how long the applause would last.
One immediate effect though is that Labour's odds remain unchanged to win the election at 11/2 with the Conservatives remaining hot favourites at 1/12.
According to PaddyPower: "In general the speech looked likely to have a small positive effect on Brown’s approval rating next month with a fall in YouGov’s poll to 21-25% starting at 9/4 and drifting out to 3/1. The key time coming just after 3.00pm when Brown discussed pensions. A rise to an approval of 26-30% remained favourite throughout the speech, starting at 13/8 and finishing at 11/10."

Here were the key moments for the political gamblers when a flurry of bets were placed:

Length of Applause
14:31 Sarah Brown
14:36 Talk of Labour achievements
14:47 Talk of Bank collapse
14:52 New Banking Law and banks paying people back
15:02 Raise tax at top
15:13 Talk of troops
15:22 Personal Care for Free
15:25 Abolish heriditary principle in house of lords
15:31 Talking of dreaming

Approval
14:31 Sarah Brown
14:41 Talk of employment and saving jobs
14:49 Talk of his parents and family values with NHS
14:55 Climate Change deal
15:03 Free Child Care, Child Tax Credits
15:09 Talk of immigration
15:14 Threat to Iran


PaddyPower has also given us a series of post speech odds:

Who will win the next UK General Election?
1/12 Conservatives
11/2 Labour
80/1 Liberal Democrats

Gordon Browns’ October Approval Rating (Yougov Poll, Sept 09 = 26%)
16/1 10% or less
12/1 11 - 15%
8/1 16 - 20%
3/1 21 - 25%
11/10 26 - 30%
3/1 30 - 35%
8/1 36 - 40%
10/1 Over 40%

How many seats will Labour win at the next Election?
5/1 Less than 150
11/10 150-200
13/8 201-250
6/1 251-300
10/1 301-350
33/1 351-400
50/1 Over 400

It will be interesting to see how accurate the above is and whether the cash pundits are as good or better than us political hacks.

David Maddox: At the risk of sounding like a cybernat...

This item Labour have just put out is possibly the most outrageous press release I can remember in my time in Holyrood, which is saying quite a lot.
I will spare you most of the gory details, but entitled: "SALMOND THREATENS TO CANCEL MORE GLASGOW PROJECTS" it claims that the First Minister during FMQs threatened to "cancel the new Southern General Hospital and the National Indoor Sports Arena if he does not get his way on the cancellation of the Glasgow Airport Rail Link."
It then quotes Glasgow Shettleston MSP Frank McAveety: “The First Minister’s threat to take away funding for the National Indoor Sports Arena is just more bluster. He knows fine well that he signed a commitment to deliver this facility, which is vital to the success of the Commonwealth Games."
I had to check with some fellow hacks, that I had not dreamed what really happened in FMQs. They confirmed to me that none of the above press release is true. Mr Salmond used those projects as examples of how Glasgow is still getting a lot of infrastructure investment and at no point was there a threat to cancel them. I write this as a journalist who has not exactly been shy of criticising the First Minister.
This release probably has something to do with upcoming Glasgow North East by-election and, as a colleague pointed out to me, there are a lot of weekly papers who do not have staff here who may pick it up and report it as fact.
Not exactly the most honourable moment for Labour in Holyrood, even if ultimately it is effective.

David Maddox: Murphy's law

You know when the silly season has begun because political parties start sending pictures of their opponents committing parking violations.
But this one is wholly deserved. Labour yesterday released a picture of SNP Transport Minister Stewart Stevenson using disabled parking spots for his electric car test (scroll down to the post two below this one) accompanied by the usual expressions of shock and outrage. So today the SNP have responded.
They found me this picture of Labour Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy with his car parked on double yellow lines near the Palace of Westminster. To make matters worse it actually appears on the Scotland Office website.

I seem to remember that there are some security risk issues about parking in that area too.
But the real lesson here is political parties in glass houses should not throw stones.
I guess we won't be having any games like this off the Lib Dems because we all remember the time when former Scottish leader Nicol Stephen parked his campaign bus on double yellow lines too.

David Maddox: Why Labour hate the Welsh vote

Given the last few days this could be a blog about how Labour lost the popular vote in Wales for the first time since 1979 in last week's European election, the first time that the Tories have topped the principalities there, but its not.

Instead step forward Andrew Welsh (top left), the quiet Nationalist MSP for Angus current convener of the Finance Committee who has been a fixture in Scottish politics for the last 35 years (with an eight year gap between 1979 and 1987).

As the youngish MP for South Angus, elected aged 30 in 1974, he was part of the famous gang of Nationalists (top right, Andrew Welsh is second from the right) led by Winnie Ewing whose votes in the famous vote of no confidence in Callaghan's Labour government brought about the 1979 election and the start of the long years of Conservative rule under Margaret Thatcher (bottom left).

As a result, this morning in the Conservative sponsored debate in Holyrood calling for another general election, following the Nationalist one in Westminster yesterday, Mr Welsh has been a particular focus of attention for Labour MSPs.

They have been busy telling him and those outside Holyrood taking any notice, that the SNP "pact with the devil" in 1979 led to a particularly dark period in Scottish history, culminating in the poll tax being imposed North of the border.

So Labour MSPs in high dudgeon spent much of their time demanding that Mr Welsh apologise for letting Mrs T in. It goes without saying that Mr Welsh, in his usual style, politely and demurely refused.

The Labour could, however, have also pointed out, but they did not, that it led to the Nationalists being routed at the polls 30 years ago including poor old Mr Welsh losing his seat to the Tories. There was also the small matter of a civil war amongst the SNP's ranks with the emergence of the radical 1979 Group including present day party luminaries such as Alex Salmond, Kenny MacAskill, Stewart Stevenson and Roseanna Cunningham.

How times have changed and yet in Mr Welsh's voting habits not.

David Maddox: Making history

Here is the new Cabinet announced by Gordon Brown today. It contains many surprises, some over-promoted (Ainsworth), some who Mr Brown wanted to sack (Darling) and some who thought they would never return (Hain).
But look carefully at the list because if things go really badly on Sunday night with the European election results it could be the shortest serving Cabinet in British political history.

Prime Minister, First Lord of the Treasury and Minister for the Civil Service
The Rt Hon Gordon Brown MP
Leader of the House of Commons and Lord Privy Seal; Minister for Women and Equality (and deputising for the Prime Minister at PMQs)
o The Rt Hon Harriet Harman QC MP
First Secretary of State, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills and Lord President of the Council
o The Rt Hon Lord Mandelson
Chancellor of the Exchequer
o The Rt Hon Alistair Darling MP
Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs
o The Rt Hon David Miliband MP
Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor
o The Rt Hon Jack Straw MP
Secretary of State for the Home Department
o The Rt Hon Alan Johnson MP
Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
o The Rt Hon Hilary Benn MP
Secretary of State for International Development
o The Rt Hon Douglas Alexander MP
Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government
o The Rt Hon John Denham MP
Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families
o The Rt Hon Ed Balls MP
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change
o The Rt Hon Ed Miliband MP
Secretary of State for Health
o The Rt Hon Andy Burnham MP
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
o The Rt Hon Shaun Woodward MP
Leader of the House of Lords and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
o The Rt Hon Baroness Royall of Blaisdon
Minister for the Cabinet Office, and for the Olympics and Paymaster General
o The Rt Hon Tessa Jowell MP
Secretary of State for Scotland
o The Rt Hon Jim Murphy MP
Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
o The Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP
Chief Secretary to the Treasury
o The Rt Hon Liam Byrne MP
Secretary of State for Wales
o The Rt Hon Peter Hain MP
Secretary of State for Defence
o The Rt Hon Bob Ainsworth MP
Secretary of State for Transport
o Lord Adonis
Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport
o Ben Bradshaw MP

Ross Lydall: Is Labour afraid of talking about Britain?

Does the Scottish Labour Party have a problem describing itself as British?
A correspondent draws my attention to the party's European election manifestos for North and South of the Border, and the replacement of the word "Britain" with that of "Scotland" (or the omission of Britain altogether) on a number of occasions.

For example, the manifesto, entitled Winning The Fight For Britain’s Future, states: "Labour has fought hard so that workers in Britain have the right to guaranteed holidays, mums and dads have more time to spend at home with their British kids and we pay less for air travel or phone calls when we are on holiday."

But in the tartan edition, this is amended to: "Labour has fought hard so that workers in Scotland have the right to guaranteed holidays, mums and dads have more time to spend at home with their kids and we pay less for air travel or phone calls when we are on holiday."

Similarly, "Labour stands resolutely for the hard working majority of the British people" is amended to "Labour stands resolutely for the hard working majority of the people" for the benefit of Scottish eyes.

That's not to say that Britain does not feature in the Scottish manifesto. The word pops up 11 times - but 68 in the UK manifesto. All very strange for a Unionist party, perhaps?

Hamish Macdonell - they must be desperate

WITH public interest in the European elections hardly able to raise a blip on the national consciousness, Labour in Scotland have resorted to desperate measures.
According to a press release issued by Labour this morning, the European elections have much in common with tonight's Champions' League Final.
They both demonstrate acute and aggressive national rivalries and the desire to kick lumps out of each other and they both provide opportunities for already well-paid individuals to earn even more money they don't deserve.
Well, that wasn't quite what the Labour release said, it actually said that the European elections and the Champions League showed the importance of working in Europe.
But, you know that when politicians try to attach themselves to something really popular, they are getting desperate. It won't be long before one of the parties attaches itself to Susan Boyle ...
ends

David Maddox: Tory conference - No longer the McBridesmaid

The Tories wheeled out two "celebrity" speakers this morning. One was the knife crime campaigner John Muir, the father of Damian who was brutally murdered by a knife wielding thug in 2007, who had come to endorse the Tories' new policy of two year minimum sentences for people caught carrying knives.
Before that though was their "controversial" new convert, the leading QC Paul McBride (pictured right).
Controversial because they claimed he joined the Tories three weeks ago and abandoned Labour to do so.
Labour have gone to great lengths to say: "Paul who?" And point out he was not a member at the time and apparently never seen by them.
Lord George Foulkes, First Lord of the Twittery etc, even wrote to the Scotsman ,to question Mr McBride's former Labour credentials. The Baron of Cumnock also asked a question in parliament to check if Mr McBride had declared himself a Labour supporter in his role as a member of the Legal Board, something he would have been required to do if he was a party member or active supporter in the last five years. He had not.
However, Mr McBride maintains he was a Labour supporter for most of his adult life, let his membership lapse in the late 1990s, but later attended fundraising events until recently.
Mr McBride has been described as arrogant by some in Labour in recent days, his e-mail address apparently includes the words topQC, but seeing him this morning you can see why Labour are so wound up about his "defection" and the Tories are gloating about it.
McBride is the sort of bright, sharp dressed, talented individual who flocked to Labour in the early years of Blair, but who can see that the bright future is now with Cameron and the Tories.

David Maddox: Half term report cards

Here are the spoof half term report cards put together by Labour and distributed to hacks prior to FMQs today (click on the link):
Report%20Cards_Layout%202.pdf

Pity that Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader, apparently forgot to actually use them in his four questions preferring his usual mantra on broken promises.

Nevertheless a spokesman for Alex Salmond felt the need to put out a response to them:
"The verdict of the people is what counts, which on the basis of the 50 key policies we have delivered over the past two years is highly satisfactory. The SNP have a commanding lead in the polls, even at the government's mid-term point. The score Iain Gray should be worried about is that only 7% of Scots support him to be First Minister - Alex Salmond is more popular than Iain Gray even among Labour supporters!"

The statement came with this briefing:
Polling%20Brief%2006-05-09.doc

The marks may be poor all round, but, as the SNP, say the final examiners (the voters) will give their verdict in 2011.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (8)

It always amazes me how seriously parties take the numbers games and how they crawl over every minute detail from the polls.
My earlier blog on desperation tactics sparked a fairly sharp retort from the Labour offices:

"Polls commissioned by parties do not tell you much - the parties control the questions and crucially the weightings attached to each class of voter (there were 308 people who said they'd vote Labour, but this was "weighted" to 266 in the results). Stick with newspaper polls - they're more reliable!!" It read.

And it was pointed out that while there was a healthy lead for the SNP in its own commissioned poll for Holyrood the Nationalists were behind for Westminster. And if it was compared with the last SNP commissioned poll of August 2008 the SNP were going down which ever way you look at it.

Here they all are along with Westminster seat calculations courtesy as ever of Electoral Calculus:

Westminster (seats won and change in number in brackets):
August 2008: SNP 36% (26 +20) Lab 29% (22 -19) Tories 18% (4 +3) LD 13% (7 -4)
April 2009: SNP 30% (10 +4) Lab 32% (35 -6) Tories 21% (5 +4) LD 13% (9 -2)

Holyrood constituencies:
August 2008: SNP 44% Lab 25% Tories 13% LD 14%
April 2009: SNP 37% Lab 30% Tories 15% LD 13%

What does this prove?
1. Voters are fickle.
2. They vote differently for Holyrood than Westminster.
3. Point 2 suggests that SNP votes are not necessarily for independence.
4. Minor fluctuations in support could lead to dramatic changes in results (see the Westminster seat calculations).

David Maddox: The numbers game (7) - Desperate tactics

Life these days is tough for a Labour spin doctor because most of the poll readings are not exactly messages of joy for Messrs Brown, Darling, Gray et al.

So in the last week when the polls have been particularly bad both UK-wide and in Scotland, they have deployed their last cards in the numbers game. The tactic appears to be take whatever looks good however flimsy and desperate in the hope it has an impact.

So in a week when poll figures that suggest David Cameron would have a 150 seat majority if an election were called, Labour sent me this Scottish sample from yesterday's Daily Politics poll.

When asked: Who do you trust to steer Britain through the downturn?
Brown/Darling 48% v Cameron/Osborne 22%

Looks impressive until you realise that this Scottish sample is just 90 people.

It reminded me of last week's response to the Yougov poll commissioned by the SNP last week which gave the Nationalists a seven per cent lead in Scotland over Labour.

Labour of course dismissed it because it was SNP commissioned, even though it was a neutral organisation conducting the survey and came up with another Scottish sample of a concurrent UK-wide poll.

Lab 41% Con 27% SNP 18% Lib Dems 14% UKIP 1%

Again very impressive until you realise that this sample is just 165 people - "more than most samples," Labour insisted, but not exactly a scientific survey. Perhaps the fact the sample has the Tories scoring 27 per cent in Scotland should raise doubts about how it reflects support in Scotland, even the most ardent true blues would not be that optimistic.

However, Labour's spin doctors may still have a point. Larger polls have proven to be horribly wrong in the past. Let us not forget 1992, I know Labour don't, when the Conservative won despite what the polls had suggested. In recent times too, in Scotland at least, the polls have fluctuated greatly between Labour and SNP support. There's only one type of poll that counts the rest are just window dressing.

The next true poll then will be on June 4 in the European elections.

David Maddox: The end of the SNP's flirtation with the Catholics?

WHEN Alex Salmond went on his jaunt to China to portray himself again as a world instead of a parochial figure, he may not have calculated that his trip would undermine his attempts to win an important group in the Scottish electorate.

Much has been made of Mr Salmond's attempts to woo the Roman Catholic vote in Scotland for the SNP not least with calls to change the discriminatory Act of Settlement which prevents Catholics becoming the monarch or even being part of the Royal family.

He also made a rare trip back to Westminster to vote on bio-ethics and tightening abortion laws and in 2008 drew praise from Cardinal Keith O'Brien (pictured) when he announced that he wanted moral values taught in schools.

The stakes are high not least because the now Tory supporting Bishop Joe Devine has been trying to persuade his flock to abandon their traditional support for Labour, but more importantly because the Catholic vote is an identifiable group which could be the key to breaking Labour's historic grip on Glasgow and the West of Scotland.

Putting a firmly Christian anti-abortion candidate up in the largely Catholic Glasgow East, John Mason, helped tip the balance in a tight result against the Labour MSP Margaret Curran who supports abortion and experimentation on foetuses.

But it seems that his apparent support for stem cell research on the China trip, an issue that Cardinal O'Brien has described as "Frankenstein medicine", giving his blessing to collaboration between Edinburgh University and Chinese scientists, has undone some of his good work as this article in the Scottish Catholic Observer, Scotland's biggest Catholic newspaper, appears to suggest.

This was accompanied by a leading article quoting the Cardinal's Easter sermon which suggested that Scotland is on the verge of social collapse.

Which all goes to show that it is no simple matter to win over the support of large interest groups, although it was also perhaps misguided to believe that thousands of Catholic would be persuaded to vote on ethical arguments rather than the more practical issues of life.

David Maddox: Who turned the lights out?

There was a members debate this evening to support the World Wildlife Fund’s Earth Hour 2009, which aims to encourage millions of people worldwide and across Scotland to switch off their lights for an hour at 8.30 pm on Saturday 28 March 2009, as an act of awareness on climate change and the need to tackle it.

The debate this evening was led by one of the promising new Nationalist MSPs Shirley-Anne Somerville (pictured top right), who represents the Lothians, which has a certain irony to it. This is because, as contacts in both Labour and the Conservatives have pointed out, the SNP, in their view seem intent on turning the lights out permanently in Scotland.

The thrust of the (well worn) argument is that the SNP's obsession with renewable energy from wind, wave and sun and outright opposition to nuclear will leave Scotland without a stable base supply of power. Only time will tell who is right, but if the SNP are wrong then the results could literally send Scotland back to the dark ages.

But the fear of "the lights going out" is hardly a new one to throw at voters. Tony Blair and Labour suggested all sorts of cataclysmic outcomes if the SNP took power in Holyrood. However, after almost two years we are yet to see the four horsemen of the Apocalypse descend on the country.

No doubt Labour remembered well how the idea of turning the lights out managed to put off supporters in 1992 with the infamous front page of The Sun on election day (pictured bottom right), although in that case it was the last person to leave the country who was being asked to press the switch.

David Maddox: Why does Labour appear to revel in the economic ruin of other countries?

The answer to the above question is simple- it always applies to countries in the SNP's famous Arc of Prosperity.
Of course, the downfall of Iceland, Ireland et al (with possible exception of Norway) allows them to say that all the models the SNP have for an independent Scotland have proven to be hopelessly flawed and simply underlines the point that Scotland is better off in the Union.
Admittedly, the SNP has been made to look silly for playing up these countries as models of economic paradise for small nations. The success stories are still on the SNP website.
But, there does seem to be a gloating note in Labour press releases, which if I were Icelandic or Irish I might feel a bit miffed about. One always gets the feeling that they are itching for Norway to go under too. There was the incident involving the anti-terror laws and Icelandic assets too.


The latest press release came today undeer the name of Labour Dumfries and Galloway MP Russell Brown (pictured right) entitled: Arc of insolvency continues to embarrass Salmond.
In it he notes that interest rates in Iceland have today been cut to 17%.
“The fact that interest rates in Iceland are 34 times higher than in Scotland shows that we benefit from being part of the UK," he said.
“It’s not that big countries are immune from the world financial crisis – look at America – but big countries have the strength to weather the storm better.
“Today’s news is another embarrassment for Alex Salmond and his arc of insolvency. His belief that Scotland should be more like Iceland is utter nonsense.”

Given the appalling mess we find ourselves across the world, a little more solidarity with smaller countries might not go amiss.

David Maddox: Lib Dem conference - subliminal messages

As the final day of the Lib Dem Scottish conference gets underway we are already getting ready for the party's young energetic leader Tavish Scott to get to his feet and deliver his first speech since being voted to the top office.
But, whatever you think about the position of the Scottish Lib Dems at the moment - the polls suggest they are facing a possible doomsday or two in upcoming elections - but one interesting point is that their choice of venue this year is very positive.
The Perth Concert Hall (pictured right) is a new looking fresh location, very accessible and easy to organise in. It gives the impression of a party which knows what it is doing, is up and coming and is very open.
No wonder the Nationalists were also here for their autumn conference and the Conservatives will be here for their Scottish conference.
In contrast last week we all crammed into the Caird Hall (pictured left) in Dundee for Labour's Scottish conference. It is tired looking with stained carpet (not necessarily with blood), peeling wallpaper, difficult to find your way around, generally disorganised and anything but easily accessible. Any party that is on its way down would fit well into it.
Venues give strong subliminal messages - the Lib Dems this week have got it right and Labour unfortunately fitted the image many have of them now.

David Maddox: Many questions, double standards (2) - Just Labour paranoia?

Had a note from one of the spin doctors for the SNP parliamentary party in Holyrood about Labour's allegations of devious goings on by the Nationalists with written parliamentary questions. See yesterday's blog for details.
She is brief and to the point.
"Much as Labour's paranoia is a compliment, we have better things to do with our time," she said.

David Maddox: The musings of Mr Toad

As this blog as mentioned before, there are few more colourful characters wandering around the grey corridors of Holyrood than Professor Christopher Harvie, the SNP MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife.

The author of many academic works who spent much of his life in Germany provided some rare interest at the public meeting held by the Treasury Select Committee this morning.

He suggested that in their inquiries into banks the committee members should "read novels" particularly by John Le Carre and recommended a long forgotten tome from 1975 called The Crime Industry, produced by the Scotland Home Office and recently quoted by the German Finance minister as a must read.

It predicted that crime would be transformed by globalisation, tax havens and computers.

"That's why mafia bosses stopped using horse's heads and moved into real estate," Prof Harvie told me afterwards.

Committee chairman John McFall, Labour MP for West Dunbartonshire, politely noted that he had enjoyed reading Prof Harvie's books over the years.

However, he may not enjoy reading the Prof's latest work - Broonland - a publication due to come out in August in time for Labour's main party conference where the historian cum-MSP will chart the downfall of Gordon Brown and Labour, predicting a similar electoral annihilation to the one suffered by the Tories in 1997.

Passages can be found on his website which has another interesting twist for the man often described nicknamed the "nutty professor" in Holyrood.

Just to prove that there are still some politicians out there with a self deprecating humour, it celebrates another one of his nicknames - Mr Toad (as in the some time incumbent of Toad Hall in Wind in the Willows).

His likeness to literature's most famous amphibian perhaps most of all is in his style of dress. And Mr Toad is available to take visitors through his website.

The homepage even opens with Toad's most famous song - readers can make up their own minds on whether this fits Prof Harvie.

The world has held great Heroes,

As history-books have showed;

But never a name to go down to fame

Compared with that of Toad!

The clever men at Oxford

Know all there is to be knowed.

But they none of them know one half as much

As intelligent Mr. Toad!

Hamish Macdonell - voting, who is counting?

WITH little going on at Holyrood while the parliamentarians are on recess, attention has been focused on Alex Salmond's participation record at Westminster.
The Tories published the statement which the First Minister still carries on his Holyrood members' register, claiming he is one of the top ten hardest working Scottish MPs at Westminster.
They then contrasted this with the First Minister's record on voting, motions, questions and amendments since he came back at Holyrood in 2007, revealing that, ove the last two years, he has one of the worst records of any Scottish MP.
But the SNP spin machine is nothing if not efficient and Nationalist officials quickly dug up their own record showing that, if the data is taken back to 2005, then Salmond still has an excellent record at Westminster, much better than the Tories claimed.
It was all spin, spin and counter spin, that is until Labour got involved and stated (very off the record) that over the last two years Salmond actually had a worse voting record than their former MP, the late John MacDougall, who died last summer, prompting a by-election.
That was pretty unsavoury territory for Labour, particularly when it was pointed out to them that one of reasons John MacDougall had a decent voting record was that he very graciously acceded to the appeals of his whips on several occasions and made it through the division lobbies of the Commons when he really wasn't very well at all.
I think that's probably enough on voting records for all the parties now, or I hope so.
ends

Hamish Macdonell - election odds

THE smart money appears to be rallying behind the Conservatives, if the latest odds are to be believed.
Having taken account of the latest polls, which give David Cameron a substantial lead over Labour, bookmakers have cut their odds to win the next General Election to the lowest they have been since Margaret Thatcher was in power.
The Tories are now 1/7 favourites to be the largest single Party after the next General Election. 'At 1/6 they were already red-hot favourites but if the new poll is to be believed they are virtual certainties' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.'We have not seen a significant bet for Labour to win the next Election all year.'
Meanwhile, Hills have lengthened Labour's odds from 7/2 to 4/1 - the longest they have been since Neil Kinnock was Leader, with the Lib Dems at 100/1.
Hills now make the Tories 2/5 favourites to have an overall majority at the next Election, with a Hung Parliament quoted at 5/2 and Labour 7/1 to do likewise.
Hills now believe that it is a virtual certainty that Gordon Brown won't risk a General Election until the last moment, so have cut the odds for the next poll to take place in 2010 from 1/3 to 2/9. They also offer 9/2 that it will be held between July and December this year and 8/1 in or before June 2009.
Gordon Brown is now odds-on to be the first of the three current Party Leaders to stand down - Hills make him a 4/7 chance to be the first to go, with Nick Clegg at 5/2 and David Cameron 9/2. Brown is 8/11 to cease to be PM during 2010; 5/2 during 2009.
Hills make him 4/11 to lead his Party into the next General Election, 2/1 not to.
ends

David Maddox: Bad day for Grays (not just the squirrels)

Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader (pictured right), might think that he has enough on his plate taking on Alex Salmond and the SNP, while still trying to sort out the mess his party North of the border was left in after Wendy Alexander vacated the leadership.

But, if this was not difficult enough he seems to have had to contend with everything that UK Labour Party leaders have had to throw at him too.

First there was the suspension of his East Lothian constituency party over the argument surrounding the reselection and attempted deselection of the local MP Anne Moffat.

Then just as he was preparing to give a major speech today on the economy at Ravenscraig where he was to deliver a withering attack on the SNP Scottish Government, then up pops UK Minister of State for Employment and Welfare Reform Tony McNulty (or McNumpty as one Scottish Labour activist called him today) (pictured left) on Sunday's Politics Show to praise the SNP.

Here's a quick competition, spot the difference:

McNulty on Sunday: "Broadly I think they (the SNP) are doing all they can and they are working – certainly in as far as my brief in terms of employment is concerned – they are working with us in common cause."

Gray today (Monday): "I say very clearly today that, if and when the SNP decide to focus on the economic challenge, concentrate on the actions they can take with the powers they have the Labour Party I lead will not shirk from working with them in the Parliament."

No wonder the Nationalists could hardly stop laughing. Their official spokesman on this occasion, John Mason, the hero of last summer's Glasgow East by-election, suggested that Mr Gray was "overtaken by events" mainly from his own party and perhaps "should have rewritten his speech."

I wonder if this is a picture of Prime Minister Gordon Brown's reaction when he was told how things were going in Scotland.

David Maddox: The numbers game (3)

The Yougov poll mentioned in Saturday's posting had some interesting results, as you may have seen in a Sunday publication.

Despite apparently gaining in popularity from the 2007 election, though, on the basis of this poll in a Holyrood election the SNP would stay on their current 47 seats with Labour (44, -2), Lib Dem (13, -3), and Independent (0, -1) losses being taken up by the Tories (18, +1), Greens (5, +3) and Scottish Socialist Party (2, +2).

But, a briefing I have received from a senior SNP strategist shows that gains in pure numbers does not tell the whole picture. What is more important, as far as he and his colleagues are concerned, for long term success is the significant gain of nine constituency of first past the post (FPTP) seats.

This would see defeats for some big names - Labour's finance spokesman Andy Kerr (pictured left, in a different sort of tough race) in East Kilbride along with former Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen in Aberdeen South would both go. Even the poor Presiding Officer, Alex Fergusson, would be swept away in Galloway & Upper Nithsdale.

Other SNP gains would be: Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross; Ross, Skye and Inverness West; Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale; Aberdeen Central; Airdrie & Shotts; and Linlithgow.

As the senior SNP strategist explained: "My point would be that it’s better to win FPTP seats than list seats (although obviously good to win both!) – constituency MSPs are better able to dig in, build the base, etc.
"2003 was interesting – we fell back overall but won more FPTP seats than in 1999 – which was a healthy pointer to the future. And of course we won a pile of FPTP seats in 2007.

"Basically, the SNP used to be good at winning votes, and not good at winning seats (eg. the ’92 election). Now we are good at both – which in turn bodes well for the next Westminster election."

David Maddox: Hmmmm.... Is a pattern emerging here?

After the spat continues about the Tory leaflet being handed out at Waverley Station this morning accusing Labour of destroying public services etc by leading the defeat of the budget yesterday (see my colleague Hamish Macdonell's posting's earlier today), and Labour's claim that it was all lies, a couple more press releases have come out from the true blues.
The first was entitled: Labour deprives forestry of £3.5m
The second had the equally subtle heading: Labour leads £217.5m transport budget cut
The two releases refer to Labour's two subject debates today in Holyrood. One suspects that every subject they now raise will provoke similar press releases given the potential consequences of their no vote.
At lunch time one Labour spin doctor wryly noted to me: "I don't know if Alex Salmond has put the SNP on an election footing, but the Tories are certainly now on a Westminster election footing."

David Maddox: Budget - Tomorrow is another day

Well after all the excitement of this truly extraordinary and historic day in Holyrood I'm going to sign off. You can read the in depth analysis and reports in tomorrow's Scotsman.

But needless to say the blame game has already started. Labour have blamed the SNP, the Tories have blamed Labour, the Lib Dems have blamed the SNP, and the SNP have blamed everyone except the Tories and themselves. Funnily enough, anybody who is not in a political party has blamed the Greens.


One interesting point is that somehow, even though their thinking is often different, the Lib Dems have still always voted the same way in Holyrood as Labour on the budget every year since the parliament was reconvened. More and more they look like an extention of Scottish Labour to those not well versed in the machinations of Holyrood, which is reflected in the declining polling ratings north of the border, which in some cases have dipped into single figures.


As one final note, it is clear that the SNP smelt disaster early in the afternoon and were resorting to pretty desperate measures.
This high priority e-mail was sent out by one of their backbenchers Christina McKelvie (pictured) at 2.51pm to her public sector trade union colleagues calling on them to lobby Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray:

I am writing about this afternoon's budget debate in the Scottish Parliament. The implications for Scotland if the Budget Bill is not passed are serious. Section 6 of the 2008 Budget Act would be the legislation which governs such an eventuality. That section can be found here - http://www.oqps.gov.uk/legislation/acts/acts2008/asp_20080002_en_3 In short, it means that the Scottish Government would only be allowed to release, in any calendar month, one twelfth of last year's budget or the amount paid out of the Consolidated Fund for the corresponding month last year. There is no allowance made for inflation. This would leave a shortfall of some £1.8 billion or £150m per month and leave the Scottish Government without the flexibility to spend money to protect jobs and investment.
As you will appreciate, such a situation would jeopardise public sector pay deals; increased funding for the NHS; increases to the local government settlement which would affect the ability of those local authorities to freeze council tax again this year; funding to cut business rates for small businesses; and accelerated capital spending in the region of £230 million. With the economy struggling as it is at the moment, I'm sure you will agree with me that Scotland could ill-afford such a cut in public spending this year. Cuts on that scale would not only affect the pay of public sector workers, they would adversely affect public services and would prevent the Scottish Government the opportunity to ensure that Council Tax stays frozen this year and that prescription charges come down - costs which fall heaviest on poorer members of society.
Can I urge you, therefore, to contact MSPs who you may know and urge them to support the budget this afternoon. In particular I would urge you to contact Labour's Leader in the Scottish Parliament, Iain Gray MSP, and urge him to take his party with him and vote to protect Scotland 's public spending this afternoon.
Yours,
Christina McKelvie MSP

David Maddox: More budget latest

If anything sums up the pressure mounting on Green leader Patrick Harvie then the sight of him eating his soup alone in the canteen with a Newsnight camera pointed a few inches above his bald pate does it. It underlines that his vote and that of his colleague Robin Harper will be crucial. To be fair on Mr Harvie he somehow managed to pretend the camera was not there. Cool under pressure.
But the emotions are beginning to show in other parties. Labour are obviously nervous that this budget may fall. Their group meeting at 12.30pm confirmed that they will vote against and they are busily trying to make sure they are not blamed for the ensuing chaos that will follow a defeat for the Scottish Government.
One Labour spin doctor has just spent most of lunchtime briefing me that SNP Finance Secretary John Swinney may be "deliberately trying to sabotage the budget" in the hope it will damage oppositon parties.
However, if the smiles on SNP faces and their spin doctors is an indicator to go by, then all may be well and a deal may have finally been struck with the Greens, not that they are letting on.
John Swinney will get to his feet to start the budget debate in just under 45 minutes. We will hopefully know then what is happening before the big vote at 5pm.

Hamish Macdonell - budget goes down to the wire

THE brinkmanship which has characterised the SNP's budget process for the last two years has got even more tense than usual.
The Steamie understands that John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, rang Andy Kerr, Labour's finance spokesman, twice over the weekend to discuss Labour's budget demands.
Mr Swinney is also due to meet Labour leader Iain Gray tonight to see if the two sides can compromise on the budget.
Labour wants major new investment in skills and apprenticeships in return for its support and the party has made clear to ministers that they will have to be given what they want or they will vote against the budget - they are very unlikely to abstain this year as they did last, to universal derision.
With the Greens also playing hard-ball and refusing to soften their demands for a major investment in house insulation, Mr Swinney needs something to give if he is to get his budget through.
He has apparently promised the Greens £10 million for home insulation when the Greens want £100 million. He will never go as high as £100 million but the Greens want him to raise the £10 million to a more respectable figure before they will consider supporting the budget.
Like Labour, the Greens do not intend to abstain, they say they will vote for or against, but they will not sit on the fence.
It is likely to go down to the last few minutes of Mr Swinney's wind-up speech on Friday. He will try to promise extra in that speech to get one of these two parties in board. If he fails to do enough, the budget may fall.
Then we will be in for recriminations.
ends

Hamish Macdonell - Labour's car-park gaffe

IN the ongoing war of brinkmanship over hospital car-parking charges (SNP says it will abolish charges in non-PFI hospitals, opposition says it will do more), Labour has taken the ultimate step.
"Labour will abolish hospital car parking," declared the Scottish Labour website today.
And while this decision to axe all car parking completely might appeal to the Green vote, it will probably not go down too well with nurses, doctors and patients who have to take their cars to hospitals because Labour re-located them all to the outskirts of our towns and cities and converted their previous city-centre sites into offices.
I am sure there should have been a "charges" at the end of that headline, but it must have got lost in the system - much like Labour's sense of humour, no doubt.
ends

David Maddox: SNP ride to the Speaker's defence?

You can tell we're heading into the yuletide period because this is a remarkably sparce Sunday for politics.
The two main political items in the Sunday papers were Lord Mandelson's attempts to bully the Merger Action Group to drop their case against the Lloyds/ HBOS deal and Speaker Michael Martin insisting that he intends to "go on and on" in his current position despite the the fiasco over the arrest of Tory MP Damien Green.
We all know what happened to the Iron Lady when she announced she would go on and on, but it seems Speaker Martin is getting some support from surprising quarters.
On Friday I had lunch with Angus Robertson, the SNP's leader in Westminster. Now we all know that there is little love lost between Scottish Labour and the Nationalists, both parties would rather work with the Tories than with each other.
But, whilst acknowledginging Mr Martin is in deep trouble, Mr Robertson launched a stoic defence of the embattled Speaker whom he said had been the victim of a long class driven campaign by snobs who resented a boy from the back streets of Glasgow taking one of the highest offices in the land.
He also said that unlike some previous Speakers, Michael Martin always called the Nationalists to speak on statements and gave them a very fair hearing in the Commons. Added to that he said he was wonderful at conducting parliamentary events for visitors adding a really personal and moving touch to them.
In a weekend where a Labour MP has called for his resignation, it appears Mr Martin may then have friends in some less than expected paces.

David Maddox: Darling to woo Glasgow East? The answer

Just had a Labour spindoctor on the phone about the Chancellor's visit to Glasgow East.
"It's not what you think," he said. "Although obviously Glasgow east will be a key target in the next general election whenever that is."
He added: "Remember Margaret (Curran, the defeated by-election candidate who has just announced she will stand again) made a commitment in the by-election that win or lose she will bring Alistair Darling to ther constituency to hear the concerns of local people. That's what's happening today, although it will be a quick visit."
From what I remember of the Fort shopping centre in Easterhouse, the first place I went to during the by-election, Mr Darling may need to pencil in a bit more time. There were many shoppers there who had given up on Labour at the time and the relative poverty was underlined by the centre's propensity of pound, charity and loan shops.
But if things get to heavy for the Chancellor there is a shiny Labour Party office there for him to take cover in.