Two Doctors: How the Budget works.

It's that time of year again, and the first vote on the Scottish Budget will take place on Wednesday. Manufacturers of nail-clippers, beta-blockers and booze will expect a spike in sales at Holyrood between now and the 3rd of February, the scheduled date for Stage 3.

Speculation is rife, and the multi-handed game of very important poker is underway. Eddie Barnes thinks us Greens won't get what we want this year, while Jeff predicts a SNP/Tory/Green majority for.

Either way, some of the number-crunching out there is flawed. The key thing to remember with the maths is this: Stage 1 and Stage 3, the two parts where Parliament as a whole normally votes on the Budget, are different in a small but crucial way.

At Stage 1, if the vote is tied the Presiding Officer will vote to allow the Budget through to Stage 2. His responsibility is to stick to the status quo, and his (very reasonable) interpretation last year was that continued discussion is the status quo.

By Stage 3, though, status quo has been defined by the PO to mean last year's Budget. A 64-64 tie (or some other tie with abstentions) and he'll vote the current Budget down, just as he did last year.

Therefore, John Swinney needs, assuming no abstentions, no party splits, and no missing MSPs, 64 at Stage 1 and 65 at Stage 3.

To correct Jeff's numbers, the combinations for a minimal Stage 1 success can be:

SNP + Labour = 93

SNP + Tories + Lib Dems = 79

SNP + Tories + Greens = 65

SNP + Lib Dems + Greens = 65

SNP + Tories + Margo = 64

SNP + Lib Dems + Margo = 64

By Stage 3, those last two have dropped off. With those assumptions above, Margo can't influence that vote: the SNP need either Labour or any other two parties to back them.

Having spent years jousting indirectly with Margo when I worked for the first two Presiding Officers, I didn't expect my opinion of her to warm, but it has. She's got an extraordinary tactical nous, a fearless ability to stand up for unpopular causes on principle, and she's funny. She's done very well through the SNP's previous Budgets, and I suspect, arithmetic notwithstanding, she'll do so again.

David Maddox: She's back! - Fiona Hyslop breaks her silence

After a couple of weeks of speculation on her future Fiona Hyslop, the beleaguered education secretary, has decided to come out fighting.
The rumour mill began in earnest a fortnight ago when she seemed to be sidelined in a debate on teachers with her deputy, schools minister Keith Brown, opening and closing. And there had been a little quiet speculation that Mr Brown was being groomed for Ms Hyslop's job after she had struggled to defend failed pledges on building schools, maintaining teacher numbers, reducing P1 to P3 class sizes to 18 and paying off student debt.
She was described as "silent and wretched" by Annabel Goldie in FMQs two weeks ago after her no-show in the debate and the main target again for Labour and the Tories in last week's FMQs.
But tomorrow's debate on the school building programme will have Ms Hyslop opening for the defence and finance secretary John Swinney closing.
And for good measure she is quoted in the Scottish Government press release defending the government's record as a preview for the debate.
"This government inherited a legacy of 260,000 pupils in poor or bad condition schools. In just two and a half years that number has dropped by 100,000," she said.
I guess we may hear some replies to that tomorrow.

David Maddox: Easy to forget the small things...

Which must be why the Scottish Government forgot to list the publication of the draft budget on Thursday in its week ahead diary. It is after all only the biggest event of the Scottish political week.

But with the tough choices ahead of him, maybe finance secretary John Swinney, who bears a vague resemblance to Homer Simpson (top right), hoped nobody would notice.

David Maddox: Rewards for failure

So what price failure in the Scottish Government. Well in the last two years it has been £163,024.25, a price paid not by failed ministers but to them by the poor old tax payer.

This nuggest came out in a recent parliamentary answer by John Swinney to Lord George Foulkes, Baron of Cumnock, Labour MSP for the Lothians, First Lord of the Twittery.

It seems that 10 Labour and Lib Dem ministers who lost their jobs in May 2007 because the electorate preferred the SNP were paid £99,742.50 between them as a pay-off.

Then the three former SNP ministers - Stewart Maxwell (bottom left), Linda Fabiani (mid left) and Maureen Watt (top left) - deemed so hopeless by Alex salmond that he sacked them got £43,730.75 between them for not being up to the job - that's £14,576.92 each.

Eddie Barnes - Swinney needs to up the pace

John Swinney was perfectly within his rights yesterday to complain to Chief Secretary to the Treasury Yvette Cooper about the extent of public sector spending cuts which are heading our way soon. The extent of those cutbacks will continue to be disputed by the two sides but there is little doubt that belts are going have to be tightened drastically in public sector Scotland at a time when costs (see pensions, equal pay settlements, you name it) are going to keep rising. If Swinney can wring some extra cash out of the Treasury by making life politically uncomfortable for them, all well and good.

But the quid quo pro has to be that Swinney starts focussing more on getting a bigger bang for his buck in the money he already controls. I am getting worrying reports from contacts within the public finance field who fear that whilst the Finance Secretary is talking a good game, he hasn't yet grasped the nettle about the scale of the task ahead of him. There is no doubt that Swinney has to tighten the purse strings and has about a year in which to do it before the cuts kick in. But where is the methodology and the timescale? Has he brought in some advisers to run the rule through his balance sheet? Does he have some drastic solutions up his sleeve - which will undoubtedly be required - and, if so, isn't it time he started preparing the ground for them? Or is he happy simply to see services go to the wall and blame Westminster?

Lots of questions, and people are beginning to wonder whether Swinney's got the answers.

David Maddox: Another barnie over Barnett

Some of the noble Lords sitting on the upper chamber's Barnett Formula Committee were in town today taking evidence from Finance Secretary John Swinney and leading economists such as Professor David Bell, and business organisations.
But in some ways you have to wonder whether they were wasting their time.
The committee's chair Lord (Ivor) Richard, Tony Blair's first Leader of the House of Lords, was joined by former Aberdeen district councillor and academic Lord (John) Sewel, former Tory fundraiser now Welsh cross bencher Lord (David) Rowe-Beddoe, and the last Conservative Secretary of State for Scotland Lord (Michael) Forsyth (pictured right).
But as noble and well intentioned as these lords and their absent colleagues(including Lord Nigel Lawson, the former Chancellor and more recently diet book author)you could not help but feel that their purpose has somewhat been overtaken by events.
The committee has a very narrow remit, which is to look at how to make the Barnett Formula fairer, which would be a very popular move in Wales and the north of England. However, if one looks at the Calman Commission's work and the messages coming from Gordon Brown and his allies, it seems that the Barnett Formula may be on its way out.
The clear push for assigned taxes and some sort of small grant to supplement that seems to underline the SNP suspicion that Calman has become a front for scrapping Barnett.
But one thing the grilling in the MacDonald Holyrood Hotel did provide this morning was for those old adversaries John Swinney and Lord Forsyth to take up the cudgels again.
Once, after about two minutes, it became clear that Mr Swinney was not going to talk about Barnett, Lord Forsyth with a look towards the journalists, decided to poke fun at some of the Nationalists' deepest held beliefs, especially on how Scotland loses out under the current system. And it was clear that Mr Swinney had forgotten what it was like to face such a clinical interrogator.
You can read more about those exchanges in tomorrow's Scotsman.

Hamish Macdonell - LIT dead? Yes it is, at least for now.

JOHN Swinney has just confirmed he will ditch the LIT until after the next election.
He said: "We cannot put together a stable majority to enable us successully to steer detailed local income tax legislation through this parliament."
And he added: "The Cabinet has therefore decided not to introduce legislation to abolish the unfair council tax and replace it with a local income tx until after the election in 2011."
Mr Swinney did stress, however, that the SNP would fight the next election on a platform of scrapping the council tax and replacing it with the LIT.
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David Maddox: Budget latest

After last week's excitement we have a day of near complete consensus ahead of us 126 - 2 in favour of the budget.

The news is that the Finance Secretary John Swinney (pictured) has taken his revenge on the Greens, best served cold apparently (revenge not Greens). There decision to vote down the budget last week now looks costly.

Having got everybody else to support his package - the Lib Dems yesterday at no extra cost and Labour today for 7,800 apprentices - Mr Swinney knows that the Greens are isolated.

So instead of offering them £22 million plus £11 million from social partners for their free insulation scheme, he's putting in just £15 million for a different means tested insulation scheme. I gather he told Green leader/ co-convener Patrick Harvie in an e-mail at quarter to midnight last night - ouch!

The Greens have put in a reasoned amendment putting back the principle of a free for all scheme, but it looks like they have little support. We shall see when voting happens 5pm. Meanwhile there will be much self-justification and finger pointing on display when the budget debate starts in half an hour, and maybe even some consensus.

One final thought. If the Greens are right royally, for want of a better word, stuffed by the SNP in this vote, then it will be interesting to see what happens next time the Nats want them to support them in a tight vote. Maybe I am wrong, but Swinney's vengeful spite could be the start of a two year Green strop.

David Maddox: Budget - "It's war!" says Salmond. "If we lose again."

Alex Salmond, the First Minister, has just announced that he has put the SNP on an election footing. His Finance Secretary John Swinney has already resubmitted the budget and they are to have talks with the Greens tomorrow morning. But if it fails next time the SNP government will resign.

David Maddox: Budget drama unfolds

Alex Salmond, the First Minister, and John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, are leaving their bunker. Press conference at 6pm in St Andrews House - the Scottish Government building on the hill overlooking Holyrood.
Will keep you posted as soon as we hear what they have to say.

David Maddox: Budget - Reaction

Patrick Harvie, the leader of the Greens, has said he is "disappointed" with the way the SNP have approached this budget. He says that the matter can be resolved if the Scottish Government can guarantee an extra £11 million for the free insulation scheme.
"It is really a very small ask if you look at the budget as a whole," he said.
He confirmed that it was Mr Swinney's refusal to guarantee the £11 million which led them to vote against.
All the other major players have gone to their bunkers, although one or two stopped by some TV cameras. Fastest of all were Finance Secretary John Swinney and First Minister Alex Salmond who rushed to their offices in the parliament without giving a comment to anybody.
Labour have just told us that the "vote of no confidence" threat was to make sure the SNP do not delay a new budget.
Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader is now briefing journalists. He said: "We have got to this position as a direct result of the SNP's own arrogance and incompetence. They have known for weeks what they needed to do for weeks to get a deal with us or the Greens but the have just played these ridiculous games of brinkmanship. It really is very poor."
He has ratcheted up the pressure. If the next budget fails there will definitely be a vote of no confidence.

David Maddox: Budget - the vote

Here it is: 64 in favour and 64 against. The budget falls for the first time in the Scottish Parliament's history. The Greens have not been bought off. The Presiding Officer has used his casting vote for the status quo, last year's budget. We are now in unchartered territory.
John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, has promised to reintroduce the budget as quickly as possible.
Alex Fergusson, the Presiding Officer, will call a business bureau meeting tomorrow to get a new budget timetable arranged asap.
Iain Gray has indicated that Labour may consider a vote of no confidence in the SNP government.

David Maddox: Budget - John Swinney speaks, yes or no to the Greens?

Green leader Patrick Harvie's amazing piece of brinkmanship was a stunning gamble. If Mr Swinney says "yes" he has won a tremendous victory, but if he says "no" then Harvie and the Greens may go down in ignomy for bringing down a budget and being responsible for the ensuing chaos.
Finance Secretary John Swinney has now spoken. After describing Labour as "pathetic and ridiculous." He had a message for Margo MacDonald and said he has given her what she asked for. She looks less than convinced. He's promised her that he will talk to Edinburgh City Council about pilot schemes on affordable housing.
But here's the key point for the Greens. He "will leaverage in spending
from social partners to increase the amount up to £33 million." Is it enough?
Patrick Harvie speaks: "Can he commit the government will make up the shortfall if the social partners can't?"
Swinney: "The government has said what it has said and will ensure that it happens."
We go into the vote at 5pm still not clear if the Greens are convinced.

David Maddox: More budget latest

If anything sums up the pressure mounting on Green leader Patrick Harvie then the sight of him eating his soup alone in the canteen with a Newsnight camera pointed a few inches above his bald pate does it. It underlines that his vote and that of his colleague Robin Harper will be crucial. To be fair on Mr Harvie he somehow managed to pretend the camera was not there. Cool under pressure.
But the emotions are beginning to show in other parties. Labour are obviously nervous that this budget may fall. Their group meeting at 12.30pm confirmed that they will vote against and they are busily trying to make sure they are not blamed for the ensuing chaos that will follow a defeat for the Scottish Government.
One Labour spin doctor has just spent most of lunchtime briefing me that SNP Finance Secretary John Swinney may be "deliberately trying to sabotage the budget" in the hope it will damage oppositon parties.
However, if the smiles on SNP faces and their spin doctors is an indicator to go by, then all may be well and a deal may have finally been struck with the Greens, not that they are letting on.
John Swinney will get to his feet to start the budget debate in just under 45 minutes. We will hopefully know then what is happening before the big vote at 5pm.

David Maddox: The strange goings on of budget day

As it seems more and more likely that the two Green MSPs will make or break the SNP's budget this afternoon with their demands for a £1 billion free insulation scheme, all eyes have been on them this morning to see what they will do.

All eyes? Well, of course, that is if they can be found. The lack of evidence of Greens in Holyrood this morning did lead to some speculation that Finance Secretary John Swinney may have taken a note from the book of Queen Elizabeth I's spymaster Sir Francis Walsingham who, according to the recent film, locked up some of the Queen's opponents "for their own safety" so they could not vote against her in parliament.

However, I have just exclusively received a picture that reveals that the Green leader Patrick Harvie was apparently making a getaway on an electric scooter this morning, possibly from the press, more likely the SNP. The only question is whether car coming up fast behind him is being driven by Finance Secretary John Swinney.

But stop press! I gather Mr Harvie has returned and will enter crucial final talks with Mr Swinney some time in the next hour and a half.

David Maddox: Definitely no Green shoots of recovery yet for Swinney

The tension over the budget has suddenly and suprisingly ratcheted up today as can be seen in the postings from my colleague Hamish Macdonell below.
But just before calling it a night here, one more call has come through. This time it is from the Greens to confirm that they are extremely displeased with Finance Secretary John Swinney.
They will not confirm that they have only been offered £10 million a year for their free insulation scheme instead of £100 million they want, but a source has told me that their two MSPs will vote against the budget as things stand.
Tellingly the source added: "There doesn't need to be a budget in place until the end of March so there is always time to come back with another one."
With Margo MacDonald unhappy, Labour smelling blood and the Lib Dems as confirmed nay sayers on Wednesday, the SNP need the Greens on board. But if the amazingly relaxed quote above is to be taken seriously then the Greens believe that a defeat for the SNP will not be a disastrous nuclear option and may be the best way to get what they want.

Hamish Macdonell - One more vote lost

JOHN Swinney had better make time in his crowded schedule over the next 24 hours to meet Margo MacDonald.
The independent MSP for the Lothians was on side and was preparing to vote for the budget, giving the SNP a little bit of breathing space on the vote.
But that was before she found out that Edinburgh and Glasgow are getting not a penny more for affordable housing on their budgets from last year.
The Steamie understand she is now going to vote against the budget unless that money is increased.
Apparently Margo spent some of today looking for the Finance Secretary, without success. It might be worth him keeping a look out for her over the next day or so, otherwise he might find the budget vote is an awful lot tighter than he anticipated.
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Hamish Macdonell - budget goes down to the wire

THE brinkmanship which has characterised the SNP's budget process for the last two years has got even more tense than usual.
The Steamie understands that John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, rang Andy Kerr, Labour's finance spokesman, twice over the weekend to discuss Labour's budget demands.
Mr Swinney is also due to meet Labour leader Iain Gray tonight to see if the two sides can compromise on the budget.
Labour wants major new investment in skills and apprenticeships in return for its support and the party has made clear to ministers that they will have to be given what they want or they will vote against the budget - they are very unlikely to abstain this year as they did last, to universal derision.
With the Greens also playing hard-ball and refusing to soften their demands for a major investment in house insulation, Mr Swinney needs something to give if he is to get his budget through.
He has apparently promised the Greens £10 million for home insulation when the Greens want £100 million. He will never go as high as £100 million but the Greens want him to raise the £10 million to a more respectable figure before they will consider supporting the budget.
Like Labour, the Greens do not intend to abstain, they say they will vote for or against, but they will not sit on the fence.
It is likely to go down to the last few minutes of Mr Swinney's wind-up speech on Friday. He will try to promise extra in that speech to get one of these two parties in board. If he fails to do enough, the budget may fall.
Then we will be in for recriminations.
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David Maddox: Budget latest

Just heard that no amendments to the Scottish budget have been put down tonight, even though this was the last opportunity.

We know that there are individual meetings between SNP Finance Secretary John Swinney (pictured) and Labour, the Tories and Greens scheduled for tomorrow and next week. The speculation is that Labour will get something for extra apprenticeships to get people back to work, assuming there are any jobs left in a few months, and the Conservatives will get some money for town centres.

I hear from a senior Nationalist MSP that the Greens will not get nearly enough of the £1 billion they want for free insulation over a ten year to persuade them to vote for the budget, but they may be bought off for now with some pilot schemes.

However, it looks like only the Liberal Democrats, who are stuck on their 2p income tax cut demand, which would take a year to organise anyway before it can be delivered and would mean a cut of £800 million from the budget, will actually vote against.

With no amendments today it means that John Swinney will have to promise changes in the Autumn revision of the budget to get the others to vote or abstain.

Hamish Macdonell - New Year, old battles

MSPs gather back at Holyrood this week for the start of the new term.
This week's parliamentary business appears fairly routine but, hanging over everything is the row between the Scottish Government and the Treasury over the funding of the Forth Road Bridge.
John Swinney, the Finance Minister, is seeking urgent talks with Yvette Cooper, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, in an attempt to persuade her to give him some flexibility in how to pay for the bridge.
The initial signs for Mr Swinney are not good. Ms Cooper has already flatly rejected his plans to spread the payments over 20 years and she is unlikely to move any further, particularly as the two have already clashed publicly over the SNP's local income tax plans.
Mr Swinney may have to find room for compromise somewhere if he wants help from the Treasury, that's how business is done.
Otherwise he had better be prepared to fund the new bridge out of the Scottish Government's rather limited coffers.
There is though, a possible solution for Mr Swinney. The Calman Commission (a unionist plot, according to the Nats) is looking at the issue of government borrowing and may well recommend that the Scottish Government be given borrowing powers.
That would get Mr Swinney out of this Forth Bridge-sized hole but, to do so, he would have to back the Calman Commission and its findings - something no SNP minister has felt able to do so far.
But then again, tough choices, compromises and difficult decisions are what ministerial life is all about ...
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