David Maddox: How strategic chess moves are important in Scottish politics

As reported in The Scotsman today there will be an announcement later on this afternoon about a loan deal for the famous Lewis chessmen (some of them pictured above) to tour Scotland and even return home to the Hebrides for a short period.

Following my online debate with the Green's spindoctor James Mackenzie (of Two Doctors blog fame), this is yet another example of the importance of chess to political stratagems.

Most importantly they have become pawns in the great game played over separatism or unionism. The Nationalists cry: "Look at our heritage being held on to by those nasty people in London."

So this loan deal announced today is the Unionist response and an attempt to be reasonable, a move meant to take away one of the SNP's attacking pieces.

Time will tell if it works or leaves the British state further exposed.

Mr Mackenzie, of course, believes there is more merit in a game which involves the luck of the fall of the dice - he says backgammon, but it may as well be snakes and ladders.

It will be interesting to see if his MSPs have learnt some new strategies that do not depend on luck in trying to get their £1 billion of free insulation. It appears, at least from other parties, there are moves being played in this area too.

David Maddox: The Greens - not all is how it seems

I notice that James Mackenzie, that tireless spindoctor and general dogsbody for the Green Party in Scotland, has come up with a surprising admission on his Two Doctors blog.
As the world leaders sat down to discuss nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, Mr Mackenzie the official mouthpiece of a party supposed peaceniks, announced that he wants to increase his own personal nuclear arsenal from two to three.
He was talking about his collection of board games - apparently he already possesses Confrontation and War on Terror, which sound more like George W. Bush's hobbies. Far be it for me to suggest that this is a sign of latent megalomania in the otherwise urbane and personable spin doctor, but it does appear that for him subconsciously, as in a misquote of the James Bond movie, the world (let alone Scotland) may not be enough.
However, we must hope he does not become a global domination because the world may be left lacking. As his blog shows he probably would not allow either chess or cricket to be played, thus depriving civilisation of its two best past times.
His objection to chess is that he believes computers are better at the game because they can process more information. Yet the only time the world's best player lost to a computer was Garry Kasparov against the second Deep Blue constructed by IBM.
Subsequent investigations have suggested that IBM may have cheated and used other grandmasters in a bid to boost its share price. The company quickly dismantled the computer before any checks could be made or a rematch could take place.

David Maddox: Only a pawn in their game

Forget Obama, Brown and Gaddafi at the UN, the SNP's plans to liberate Scottish television from the BBC and especially Nick Clegg's speech, the news this week that Garry Kasparov and Anatoli Karpov are to resume hostilities over the chess board to mark 25 years after their first epic encounter was for me the story of the week.

It brought back memories of how as a 10-year-old fanatical chess player (sadly never better than a Norfolk county finalist) I avidly followed what became one of the greatest mental contests in human history (pictured above). As this week has shown it is one that will only end when one of the two grandmasters finds that his next opponent is the grim reaper in a Seventh Seal or, for the less high brow, a Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure fashion.
It also reminded me of a conversation I had with James Mackenzie, the Greens spindoctor and general dogsbody famous for his Two Doctors blog, about board games.
He is a collector of weird and wonderful board games and I believe has one with the aim of nuking the world, which perhaps isn't the Greenest objective.
But he is also a keen backgammon player and is teaching Green MSP Patrick Harvie how to play. Unfortunately he does not like chess and in a recent e-mail to me said: "Chess is a limited game which can be won simply by processing further into the future than your opponent."
A surprising observation for an otherwise intelligent and cultured individual about arguably the greatest test of mental skill ever devised.
But, getting back to Kasparov and Karpov, what has this rematch of the old grandmasters got to do with politics? Well actually quite a lot.
In 1984, five years before the Iron Curtain fell, this was a contest between the old and the new. Karpov was the Communist Party's establishment man, appropriately a strategist who strangled his opponents with carefully worked out positions. Kasparov represented the new Russia, pro-capitalist and pushing for freedom, which again was reflected in his faster, more flamboyant unpredictable style of play.
The two were enemies over the board, personally and politically. Their enmity was such that a board had to be fixed under the table to stop them kicking each other.
Initially, as with the old Communist regime, Karpov had the upper hand, but the match was abandoned when he was 5-3 up because the two were deadlocked in constant draws and there were fears for their health.
Then in 1985 they returned for a rematch and, in what would eventually reflect the new order, Kasparov won easily. He never lost a match to Karpov again although they clashed many times.
Kasparov actually went on to get involved in politics as an opponent of the Putin regime. After he was arrested following a demonstration it was interesting that one of his first visitors in prison was his old rival Karpov, showing that respect for a great opponent overcomes enmity and differences of opinion.
But their contest a quarter of a century ago was not the first to have a political dimension. Before Karpov became world champion, the American Bobby Fischer became the first man to overcome Soviet domination of the chess world when he beat Boris Spassky in Reykjavik in 1972 (pictured below), in contest that was loaded with Cold War politics.
Fischer is the one player who could lay claim to be on a level with Kasparov and Karpov as one of the greatest players ever. But he reportedly went mad and walked away from the game after winning in 1972 only to re-emerge years later apparently supporting the unpalatable Serbian regime in the 1990s.
He once described chess as "war on a board" but was not the only one to give it a dimension of reflecting life and politics.
The former US President Benjamin Franklin said: “Life is a kind of Chess, with struggle, competition, good and ill events.”
Although as Arthur Conan Doyle noted it is not always a good thing. He said: “Excellence at Chess is one mark of a scheming mind.”
Which brings me back to my conversation with James Mackenzie. The Greens have at times shown a certain endearing innocence when it comes to the darker arts of politics, not least in their hopeless budget negotiations earlier this year.
So, taking some Holmesian authoritive advice, perhaps Mr Mackenzie should be teaching his MSPs how to position their pawns rather than relying on the random throw of the backgammon dice.

David Maddox: Fishy business by the Scottish Government

Just ahead of the crunch vote on the Climate Change Bill (Scotland) it might be worth taking a quick nosy at the Scottish Government's current credentials on saving the world from ecological disaster.

Some of you may have seen the amazing and apocalyptic (if you are a fish) film End of the Line, which has made waves around the world. The thought-provoking documentary is film based on the book by the Daily Telegraph’s Environmental Editor Charles Clover, revealing the impact of over-fishing the oceans, in the sense that they will be empty pretty soon unless something is done.

Obviously, Scottish Environment Secretary Richard Lochhead, who has made his name by cosying up to Scotland's fishing lobby, has not seen the film or doesn't believe it. That can only explain the Scottish Government's recently launched Eat More Fish Campaign.

The campaign may be one of the reasons why the Greens are less than convinced about the SNP's commitment to climate change targets.

As Green MSP Robin Harper put it to me: "This is a clear case of the Government collaborating with industry in the face of well-founded scientific criticism. Without a change in tack from the SNP and other governments worldwide there will simply be no more fish to eat."

Anyway if you like to eat fish here's a picture of Mr Lochhead from the campaign showing us just how its best done:

David Maddox: The Numbers Games (14) - Green shoots of recovery?

Could it be that despite all the worry of BNP candidates being returned to the European Parliament the actual main beneficiaries of the expenses scandal could be the Greens?

The party of recycling policies has put out a press release on the latest poll conducted by ComRes which seems to be very encouraging for them, especially in Scotland.

The UK figures of the poll of 1,009 people were:

Conservative: 24% Labour: 22% UKIP: 17% Green: 15% Lib Dem: 14% Others: 9%

This could increase the Green's seats from two (one in the South East and one in London) to 10, according to a party press release.

The Scottish sample was:

SNP: 29% Labour: 22% Green: 18% Conservative: 12% Lib Dem: 9% Others: 7%

Amazingly it puts the Greens in third place and would mean 2 seats each for the SNP and Labour, 1 each for the Greens and Tories and nothing for the poor Lib Dems.
One should remember though that the Greens are the party who predicted they would get 10 seats or more in the 2007 Holyrood election and hold the balance of power. Surprisingly, their eventual return of two seats actually meant they were at least half right because at times they have had the decisive votes, notably in voting down the budget.
But getting back to this poll, this Scottish sample represents a mere 89 people, which makes it not exactly the most scientific study of popular opinion in Scotland, although the way things are going not many more people may turn out to vote on Thursday.

David Maddox: Going behind enemy lines

Patrick Harvie has today led a delegation of Greens on a tour around Hunterston B Nuclear Power Station in Ayrshire.

It may come as a shock that this is not a "break-in" by anti-nuclear protesters, but a guided tour of the facility which is due to be decommissioned in 2016. Although when I spoke on the phone to his press officer Jame MacKenzie, while he was on the tour, his hushed tones suggested something surreptitious was going on. As we all know the Greens are virulently anti-nuclear.

Apparently they were not expecting to find an Ayrshire version of Homer Simpson (pictured).

Shockingly, it seems that the inveterate twitter Mr Harvie has not added a nuclear power station to his list of unusual places to tweet.

Hamish Macdonell - Not playing ball (II)

IT is all getting a bit murky in this spat between the Greens and the SNP.
Now the Nats have hit back by drawing attention to the actual agreement between the two parties which states that the Greens will support "ministerial appointments", not just the first ministerial appointments.
According to the SNP, the Greens have now broken the agreement by abstaining on today's vote on the new ministers.
The Greens insist, however, that the agreement also committed the Scottish Government to favourable treatment of green issues which, they claim, ministers have not done.
Not worth the paper it was written on? Certainly, but it helped Alex Salmond get his government approved back in 2007 and that was all that mattered then, and probably now.
ends

Hamish Macdonell - not playing ball.

THE Greens really have taken a huff over last week's budget.
They have just decided not to endorse the appointment of the three new SNP ministers. Such votes are usually passed without comment or controversy, but not this time. It really does seem as though the threats of Green non-co-operation over the budget vote (which saw the Greens as the only party to vote against the Budget) with the Scottish Government have come to fruition.
Their decision is all the more surprising, however, given that the Greens actually have an agreement with the Scottish Government to support certain votes, including the appointment of ministers.
The Greens and the SNP signed up to a deal which guaranteed Patrick Harvie a committee convenership in return for Green support for the appointment of SNP ministers.
Now that deal has broken down but, as the Greens were keen to point out yesterday, their agreement only covered the appointment of the original ministers in 2007, not any subsequent votes.
Alex Salmond is probably wishing he never bothered negotiating with them at all on the budget, so difficult have they become.
ends

David Maddox: Welcome to the Greens' new keeper

One small aspect in all today's excitement over the reshuffle which has largely gone unnoticed is who has taken over the newly promoted Housing Minister Alex Neil's (pictured right) unofficial job as the doorkeeper to the Greens.

As mentioned previously in the Inside Holyrood column, Mr Neil shared a small section with the Greens, known to some as the SNP pocket, at the end of one of the SNP's corridors in the MSP tower of parliament.

The interesting dynamic here is that since the budget debacle - the Greens voting down the first attempt, then being publicly humiliated in the second when Finance Secretary John Swinney effectively dumped their free for all insulation scheme - the SNP can no longer rely on the two Green MSPs to get them out of a hole in tight votes.

But, with the combative Mr Neil now occupying a ministerial office, the Nationalists have obviously decided to persuade the Greens back on board with kindness.

Step forward Linda Fabiani (pictured left), who the Greens have always seen as one of their own in all but name - "a fellow traveller" as one Green source put it to me. Added to that there are few nicer politicians to be found in Holyrood, with the possible exception of the Greens' own Robin Harper.

So Ms Fabiani may have lost her job as Minister for Freebies (cultural events and foreign trips), but she may well have the comfort of finding herself among friends with the unofficial job of coaxing them back to the SNP corner.

David Maddox: Still chums then?

A little bit of gossip from Wednesday evening after John Swinney's "glorious" victory in passing a budget at the second time of asking this month.

You will remember that he went out of his way to humiliate the poor Green MSPs (both of them) for having the audacity to join with the former executive partners (Labour and the Lib Dems) to vote down the budget. The offer of £33 million for a free for all insulation scheme was chopped down to a wholly inadequate means tested scheme for £15 million.

Afterwards the Greens' spin doctor (and general dogs body) James Mackenzie (pictured, left) could be seen in the White Heather Club (Holyrood's bar) drowning his sorrows with glasses of Peroni and muttering darkly about the SNP. For all it seemed that the Greens "love affair" with the Nats, propping them up in difficult votes was over.

But as fate would have it, or rather a seat arranger with a sense of humour, within an hour he was to be seated next to Kevin Pringle (pictured, right), Holyrood's lord of spin and the chief special adviser to First Minister Alex Salmond, for a delayed Burns Supper. And at the end of which the two were seen hand in hand singing Auld Lang Syne. So maybe "auld acquaintance" has not been forgot and they have made up, but only time and a few tight votes will tell.

One more ironic twist was that the Burns Supper in question was arranged for MSPs and hangers on by Energy Action Scotland and Scottish and Southern Electricity, two of the biggest supporters of the Greens' insulation scheme.

No doubt they reminded those of the 123 MSPs present who voted against it that had the Greens got their way 1.8 million households in Scotland would have bills of £340 a year less, less old people would have died of cold, at least 1,000 jobs would have been created and carbon emissions would have been reduced in Scotland by six per cent.

Perhaps it was with this lecture in mind that the Labour MSP Jackie Baillie noted as she gave the reply to the toast to the lassies: "Regarding insulation, we have all missed an opportunity this week."

David Maddox: Budget - the end of the affair

Patrick Harvie, the leader of the Greens, is on his feet looking very glum. He has said the SNP "just don't get it" when it comes to carbon emissions.
As mentioned before, poor Mr Harvie is suffering after snubbing the SNP budget last week. Not surprising for a man who has seen his scheme lose £18 million in a week and changed from a free for all to a means tested one, he has said that the budget is "still inadequate."
There was a bitter swipe at the Lib Dems who dropped their £800 million 2p income tax cut for measures worth nothing to back the budget, which in effect ended the Greens chances of getting more for free insulation.
He doesn't care that the two Green votes will be the only ones against the budget today.
"It doesn't matter about numbers," he said defiantly. "There is a wider movement out there" being failed by the middle ground of politics "which the Greens will continue to represent."
According to Mr Harvie President Obama and most European governments are taking not of that movement and bringing in green projects to boost their economies and try to save the planet. Parliament would not even consider his reasoned amendment on the principle of free insulation.
It seems that the close relationship enjoyed by the Greens and SNP for the best part of two years may have come to an end. The only question now is have the Lib Dems supplanted the Greens in the SNP bed?

David Maddox: Budget latest

After last week's excitement we have a day of near complete consensus ahead of us 126 - 2 in favour of the budget.

The news is that the Finance Secretary John Swinney (pictured) has taken his revenge on the Greens, best served cold apparently (revenge not Greens). There decision to vote down the budget last week now looks costly.

Having got everybody else to support his package - the Lib Dems yesterday at no extra cost and Labour today for 7,800 apprentices - Mr Swinney knows that the Greens are isolated.

So instead of offering them £22 million plus £11 million from social partners for their free insulation scheme, he's putting in just £15 million for a different means tested insulation scheme. I gather he told Green leader/ co-convener Patrick Harvie in an e-mail at quarter to midnight last night - ouch!

The Greens have put in a reasoned amendment putting back the principle of a free for all scheme, but it looks like they have little support. We shall see when voting happens 5pm. Meanwhile there will be much self-justification and finger pointing on display when the budget debate starts in half an hour, and maybe even some consensus.

One final thought. If the Greens are right royally, for want of a better word, stuffed by the SNP in this vote, then it will be interesting to see what happens next time the Nats want them to support them in a tight vote. Maybe I am wrong, but Swinney's vengeful spite could be the start of a two year Green strop.

David Maddox: The numbers game (3)

The Yougov poll mentioned in Saturday's posting had some interesting results, as you may have seen in a Sunday publication.

Despite apparently gaining in popularity from the 2007 election, though, on the basis of this poll in a Holyrood election the SNP would stay on their current 47 seats with Labour (44, -2), Lib Dem (13, -3), and Independent (0, -1) losses being taken up by the Tories (18, +1), Greens (5, +3) and Scottish Socialist Party (2, +2).

But, a briefing I have received from a senior SNP strategist shows that gains in pure numbers does not tell the whole picture. What is more important, as far as he and his colleagues are concerned, for long term success is the significant gain of nine constituency of first past the post (FPTP) seats.

This would see defeats for some big names - Labour's finance spokesman Andy Kerr (pictured left, in a different sort of tough race) in East Kilbride along with former Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen in Aberdeen South would both go. Even the poor Presiding Officer, Alex Fergusson, would be swept away in Galloway & Upper Nithsdale.

Other SNP gains would be: Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross; Ross, Skye and Inverness West; Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale; Aberdeen Central; Airdrie & Shotts; and Linlithgow.

As the senior SNP strategist explained: "My point would be that it’s better to win FPTP seats than list seats (although obviously good to win both!) – constituency MSPs are better able to dig in, build the base, etc.
"2003 was interesting – we fell back overall but won more FPTP seats than in 1999 – which was a healthy pointer to the future. And of course we won a pile of FPTP seats in 2007.

"Basically, the SNP used to be good at winning votes, and not good at winning seats (eg. the ’92 election). Now we are good at both – which in turn bodes well for the next Westminster election."

David Maddox: Question - When is a principle a non-principle? Answer - When it's a Lib Dem principle

The Lib Dems have dropped their demands for a 2p reduction in income tax in the Scottish budget.

This is after months of their chief whip Mike Rumbles (pictured top right) corridors of Holyrood berating opponents for denying their constituents a tax cut.

The volte face also completely torpedoes their economic strategy as well as their 2011 election strategy. The idea was that they would sell themselves as the party which would leave more money in people's pockets.

Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott (pictured left from his days as a mad viking) hinted at the change on the radio this morning, but senior colleagues have now briefied journalists to confirm it.

So what has changed?

Well, after yesterday there is a new budget to fight for and the Lib Dems see the chance of influencing it. Mr Scott and his finance spokesman Jeremy Purvis have meetings scheduled with Finance Secretary John Swinney this afternoon.

The irony in all this is that the Greens, who in a fit of pique brought the budget down yesterday when they had all but won £33 million in next year's budget to start their free insulation scheme, may now get muscled out by the Lib Dems and get nothing.

David Maddox: Budget - Tomorrow is another day

Well after all the excitement of this truly extraordinary and historic day in Holyrood I'm going to sign off. You can read the in depth analysis and reports in tomorrow's Scotsman.

But needless to say the blame game has already started. Labour have blamed the SNP, the Tories have blamed Labour, the Lib Dems have blamed the SNP, and the SNP have blamed everyone except the Tories and themselves. Funnily enough, anybody who is not in a political party has blamed the Greens.


One interesting point is that somehow, even though their thinking is often different, the Lib Dems have still always voted the same way in Holyrood as Labour on the budget every year since the parliament was reconvened. More and more they look like an extention of Scottish Labour to those not well versed in the machinations of Holyrood, which is reflected in the declining polling ratings north of the border, which in some cases have dipped into single figures.


As one final note, it is clear that the SNP smelt disaster early in the afternoon and were resorting to pretty desperate measures.
This high priority e-mail was sent out by one of their backbenchers Christina McKelvie (pictured) at 2.51pm to her public sector trade union colleagues calling on them to lobby Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray:

I am writing about this afternoon's budget debate in the Scottish Parliament. The implications for Scotland if the Budget Bill is not passed are serious. Section 6 of the 2008 Budget Act would be the legislation which governs such an eventuality. That section can be found here - http://www.oqps.gov.uk/legislation/acts/acts2008/asp_20080002_en_3 In short, it means that the Scottish Government would only be allowed to release, in any calendar month, one twelfth of last year's budget or the amount paid out of the Consolidated Fund for the corresponding month last year. There is no allowance made for inflation. This would leave a shortfall of some £1.8 billion or £150m per month and leave the Scottish Government without the flexibility to spend money to protect jobs and investment.
As you will appreciate, such a situation would jeopardise public sector pay deals; increased funding for the NHS; increases to the local government settlement which would affect the ability of those local authorities to freeze council tax again this year; funding to cut business rates for small businesses; and accelerated capital spending in the region of £230 million. With the economy struggling as it is at the moment, I'm sure you will agree with me that Scotland could ill-afford such a cut in public spending this year. Cuts on that scale would not only affect the pay of public sector workers, they would adversely affect public services and would prevent the Scottish Government the opportunity to ensure that Council Tax stays frozen this year and that prescription charges come down - costs which fall heaviest on poorer members of society.
Can I urge you, therefore, to contact MSPs who you may know and urge them to support the budget this afternoon. In particular I would urge you to contact Labour's Leader in the Scottish Parliament, Iain Gray MSP, and urge him to take his party with him and vote to protect Scotland 's public spending this afternoon.
Yours,
Christina McKelvie MSP

David Maddox: Budget - Reaction

Patrick Harvie, the leader of the Greens, has said he is "disappointed" with the way the SNP have approached this budget. He says that the matter can be resolved if the Scottish Government can guarantee an extra £11 million for the free insulation scheme.
"It is really a very small ask if you look at the budget as a whole," he said.
He confirmed that it was Mr Swinney's refusal to guarantee the £11 million which led them to vote against.
All the other major players have gone to their bunkers, although one or two stopped by some TV cameras. Fastest of all were Finance Secretary John Swinney and First Minister Alex Salmond who rushed to their offices in the parliament without giving a comment to anybody.
Labour have just told us that the "vote of no confidence" threat was to make sure the SNP do not delay a new budget.
Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader is now briefing journalists. He said: "We have got to this position as a direct result of the SNP's own arrogance and incompetence. They have known for weeks what they needed to do for weeks to get a deal with us or the Greens but the have just played these ridiculous games of brinkmanship. It really is very poor."
He has ratcheted up the pressure. If the next budget fails there will definitely be a vote of no confidence.

David Maddox: Budget - the vote

Here it is: 64 in favour and 64 against. The budget falls for the first time in the Scottish Parliament's history. The Greens have not been bought off. The Presiding Officer has used his casting vote for the status quo, last year's budget. We are now in unchartered territory.
John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, has promised to reintroduce the budget as quickly as possible.
Alex Fergusson, the Presiding Officer, will call a business bureau meeting tomorrow to get a new budget timetable arranged asap.
Iain Gray has indicated that Labour may consider a vote of no confidence in the SNP government.

David Maddox: Budget - John Swinney speaks, yes or no to the Greens?

Green leader Patrick Harvie's amazing piece of brinkmanship was a stunning gamble. If Mr Swinney says "yes" he has won a tremendous victory, but if he says "no" then Harvie and the Greens may go down in ignomy for bringing down a budget and being responsible for the ensuing chaos.
Finance Secretary John Swinney has now spoken. After describing Labour as "pathetic and ridiculous." He had a message for Margo MacDonald and said he has given her what she asked for. She looks less than convinced. He's promised her that he will talk to Edinburgh City Council about pilot schemes on affordable housing.
But here's the key point for the Greens. He "will leaverage in spending
from social partners to increase the amount up to £33 million." Is it enough?
Patrick Harvie speaks: "Can he commit the government will make up the shortfall if the social partners can't?"
Swinney: "The government has said what it has said and will ensure that it happens."
We go into the vote at 5pm still not clear if the Greens are convinced.

David Maddox: Budget - Margo MacDonald speaks, SNP in trouble

Independent MSP Margo MacDonald has implied she may vote against the budget or at least abstain because John Swinney has not offered enough for affordable housing in Edinburgh at a time when the capital "is facing a social tragedy" in housing.
Support is melting away for the SNP's budget.

Labour MSP Jackie Baillie says that the budget can be passed on February 14 and be well in time for Scotland's accounting timetable.

David Maddox: Budget - Harvie speaks at last

Patrick Harvie has said he cannot vote for £22 million a year for free insulation. He is furious that the SNP have kept him waiting for their final offer until the debate. He has demanded an extra 50 per cent, £11 million, as a bare minimum. He says nothing less than £33 million would allow them to make even a start on the scheme.
He says the Greens will vote against at the moment. That's 64/63 against Swinney. Even with Margo MacDonald's vote the budget will fall on the Presiding Officer's casting vote.
Amazing brinkmanship from Harvie.

David Maddox: Budget - Harvie's twists and turns (2)

Latest is that the Greens are now thinking of abstaining. Talks are going on as we speak with John Swinney and Alex Salmond. But if they do abstain the words of James Mackenzie, the Greens' spin doctor, in the weeks leading up to this debate may come back to haunt them.
He said over and over again: "In the current political mix, an abstention is a vote in favour of the budget without getting any of the credit."

As an amusing aside, Liberal Democrat chief whip Mike Rumbles has just lectured Alex Neil on his lack of spirit of co-operation. This is the same Rumbles who was sent in for the Lib Dems' one and only meeting of budget negotiations on the basis that he was better at walking out in a huff than finance spokesman Jeremy Purvis.

David Maddox: Hot from John Swinney's budget speech

The Finance Secretary has offered £22 million in the first year to start off the Green's insulation scheme. That should be the deal clincher, double the SNP's original offer, but only a fifth of the Greens' original demand, nevertheless a fantastic achievement for a party with just two MSPs.
Even more significantly he has given the Tories the credit for a new town centre regeneration fund of £60 million for 2009/10, three times what the Tories were asking for and even more than the £50 million demanded by Labour.
And finally he has agreed to be flexible over where money for new affordable homes will go to bring Independent MSP Margo MacDonald on board. She wants more cash for Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Assuming this is all enough then that will equate to 66 votes for the budget and 62 against. Looks like Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been marginalised again.

David Maddox: Yet more budget latest

And now we think we know why the SNP are all smiles. The rumour is that the Greens have been offered a £30 million a year free insulation programme over 10 years.
This is yet to be confirmed and, as I blog, the top brass of the Greens, all three of them (MSPs Patrick Harvie and Robin Harper and spin doctor James Mackenzie) are ensconced in a meeting to finally decide what to do.
Keep checking the blog folks. We'll tell you as soon as the rumour is confirmed or refuted.

David Maddox: More budget latest

If anything sums up the pressure mounting on Green leader Patrick Harvie then the sight of him eating his soup alone in the canteen with a Newsnight camera pointed a few inches above his bald pate does it. It underlines that his vote and that of his colleague Robin Harper will be crucial. To be fair on Mr Harvie he somehow managed to pretend the camera was not there. Cool under pressure.
But the emotions are beginning to show in other parties. Labour are obviously nervous that this budget may fall. Their group meeting at 12.30pm confirmed that they will vote against and they are busily trying to make sure they are not blamed for the ensuing chaos that will follow a defeat for the Scottish Government.
One Labour spin doctor has just spent most of lunchtime briefing me that SNP Finance Secretary John Swinney may be "deliberately trying to sabotage the budget" in the hope it will damage oppositon parties.
However, if the smiles on SNP faces and their spin doctors is an indicator to go by, then all may be well and a deal may have finally been struck with the Greens, not that they are letting on.
John Swinney will get to his feet to start the budget debate in just under 45 minutes. We will hopefully know then what is happening before the big vote at 5pm.

David Maddox: The strange goings on of budget day

As it seems more and more likely that the two Green MSPs will make or break the SNP's budget this afternoon with their demands for a £1 billion free insulation scheme, all eyes have been on them this morning to see what they will do.

All eyes? Well, of course, that is if they can be found. The lack of evidence of Greens in Holyrood this morning did lead to some speculation that Finance Secretary John Swinney may have taken a note from the book of Queen Elizabeth I's spymaster Sir Francis Walsingham who, according to the recent film, locked up some of the Queen's opponents "for their own safety" so they could not vote against her in parliament.

However, I have just exclusively received a picture that reveals that the Green leader Patrick Harvie was apparently making a getaway on an electric scooter this morning, possibly from the press, more likely the SNP. The only question is whether car coming up fast behind him is being driven by Finance Secretary John Swinney.

But stop press! I gather Mr Harvie has returned and will enter crucial final talks with Mr Swinney some time in the next hour and a half.

David Maddox: Definitely no Green shoots of recovery yet for Swinney

The tension over the budget has suddenly and suprisingly ratcheted up today as can be seen in the postings from my colleague Hamish Macdonell below.
But just before calling it a night here, one more call has come through. This time it is from the Greens to confirm that they are extremely displeased with Finance Secretary John Swinney.
They will not confirm that they have only been offered £10 million a year for their free insulation scheme instead of £100 million they want, but a source has told me that their two MSPs will vote against the budget as things stand.
Tellingly the source added: "There doesn't need to be a budget in place until the end of March so there is always time to come back with another one."
With Margo MacDonald unhappy, Labour smelling blood and the Lib Dems as confirmed nay sayers on Wednesday, the SNP need the Greens on board. But if the amazingly relaxed quote above is to be taken seriously then the Greens believe that a defeat for the SNP will not be a disastrous nuclear option and may be the best way to get what they want.

Hamish Macdonell - budget goes down to the wire

THE brinkmanship which has characterised the SNP's budget process for the last two years has got even more tense than usual.
The Steamie understands that John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, rang Andy Kerr, Labour's finance spokesman, twice over the weekend to discuss Labour's budget demands.
Mr Swinney is also due to meet Labour leader Iain Gray tonight to see if the two sides can compromise on the budget.
Labour wants major new investment in skills and apprenticeships in return for its support and the party has made clear to ministers that they will have to be given what they want or they will vote against the budget - they are very unlikely to abstain this year as they did last, to universal derision.
With the Greens also playing hard-ball and refusing to soften their demands for a major investment in house insulation, Mr Swinney needs something to give if he is to get his budget through.
He has apparently promised the Greens £10 million for home insulation when the Greens want £100 million. He will never go as high as £100 million but the Greens want him to raise the £10 million to a more respectable figure before they will consider supporting the budget.
Like Labour, the Greens do not intend to abstain, they say they will vote for or against, but they will not sit on the fence.
It is likely to go down to the last few minutes of Mr Swinney's wind-up speech on Friday. He will try to promise extra in that speech to get one of these two parties in board. If he fails to do enough, the budget may fall.
Then we will be in for recriminations.
ends

David Maddox: Time for Harper to blow his own trumpet

It's amazing what releasing the burden of leadership does for an MSP's social life. Robin Harper, who has just stepped down as the co-convener (joint leader in normal parlance) of the Scottish Greens has just told me over an interesting looking plate of lamb goulash in the Scottish Parliament canteen, that he is to join Edinburgh's famous Really Terrible Orchestra.
The RTO was set up by Sandy McCall Smith in 1995 and has been described by a colleague in Holyrood as "a collection of Edinburgh worthies with musical instruments."
Robin told me that the organisers had been asking him to join the RTO for years.
He added: "I haven't touched my trumpet in eight months, but I have a little more time on my hands now."