David Maddox: Political betting

I received a slightly cocky e-mail this morning from a Labour spindoctor concerning his prospects of winning a bet the two of us have on the next general election.
At the start of the by-election he bet me £10 that the SNP will have less than 10 seats after the next general election.
And, according to his e-mail, after Labour's crushing defeat in Glasgow last night he is confident that I will be handing over a state sponsored RBS note some point next year.
I took the bet because I'm always happy to receive free money and my opinion has not changed from last night.
True, the SNP juggernaut came to a halt in Glenrothes and last night only confirmed that the breakthrough needed is still a long way off. The SNP will struggle to get Alex Salmond's target of 20 seats. It seems a long time ago now since the SNP were passing around a list showing that all Labour's seats bar one would fall to them on the basis of the Glasgow East swing.
However, they will gain seats. They managed to win six in 2005 with a mere 17.6% of the vote, they are now regularly polling above 30% in Westminster voting intentions and haven't dropped below 25%.
The other factor is that the Lib Dem vote appears to be disintegrating before our eyes. The party is running at around 12/13% in the polls (half what it was in 2005) and last night came a dismal sixth with just a handful of votes. Most of the disaffected Lib Dems appear to be going to the Nationalists and, to a lesser extent, the Tories.
As things stand my prediction for the SNP at the moment is 14 seats, four for the Tories, nine for the Lib Dems and 32 for Labour. Obviously, though, the chances are I will be very wrong.

Eddie Barnes - By-Election 2am

Finally, after a prolonged count, the results for Glasgow North-East have come back in with Labour increasing its percentage share from the 2005 election, claiming 59% of the vote, up from 53% in the 2005 general election. The SNP has remained relatively stagnant - its 20% share of the vote was marginally up on the 17% it got in that same election. That makes it a 3% swing to Labour. After all the hue and cry of the last few weeks, they have won at a canter.

But the drama of the night at the SECC was the battle for the third spot. Up until a few minutes before the count, there was a growing consensus in the hall that the BNP had beaten the Conservatives into third place, handing them what would be a major publicity coup. The BNP candidate Charlie Baillie was already parading around the hall, claiming it was a fantastic night for his party.

But then the results came in, showing that the Tories had beaten the BNP by 62 votes. I think I can say without fear of contradiction that it was the first time in recent political history that a hall full of politicians in Glasgow was united in support of the Conservatives. There followed a dignified protest from the entire group of politicians. As Baillie stood up to the microphone to make his post-result speech, they all simply walked off, as did most of the watching crowd. The BNP's surge in Scotland was over before it had begun. The Conservatives are now breathing a huge sigh of relief.

All that has rather taken away the attention from a good night for Labour. However, the question tonight is whether they can translate that support into less favourable territory.

Chris Mackie: Glasgow North East - the turnout

There is some typically insightful stuff from Mike Smithson at his ever fascinating Political Betting blog this afternoon. Despite near-universal predictions of a depressingly low number of people actually bothering to cast their votes in today's Glasgow North East poll, Mike has a decent stab at arguing that the official turnout could be surprisingly high.

He argues: "Just look what happened a year ago in the last by election where Gordon Brown campaigned. That was held in early November and we saw more than 52% of those on the electoral roll recorded as voting - which wasn’t that far short of the general election figure. "

This, the increased postal vote and the 42 per cent turnout in the Glasgow East poll has led Mike to put his money on the turnout being higher than 38 per cent.

Despite the weather in Glasgow holding up so far, I think this is slightly optimistic. The big issue he fails to tackle is the impact of the expenses scandal and the resultant voter apathy - a problem felt especially keenly in a constituency such as Glasgow North East. This effect will be exacerbated by the absence of any real political fight in the seat since Michael Martin became speaker. Numerous party workers have told us of the logistical problems they have faced during this campaign caused by the lack of any meaningful voter data or polling records on which to base their campaign strategy.

Things have not been helped, frankly, by the vague air of chaos around the whole enterprise caused by the existence of a number of no-hoper candidates all fighting for attention. That is undoubtedly a welcome sight in any democracy, but it has not helped any semblance of a pervasive narrative for the election break through to the media and subsequently, the voters.

The Glenrothes and Glasgow East fight were fascinating contests because they represented a clear referendum on the popularity of the Labour government. This contest has no such backdrop, despite the efforts of the SNP, and that is partly because of the number of competing voices shouting to be heard. There have been snatches of the BNP furore, a smidgen of red-faced socialist outrage and a touch of Tory toffage, but nothing that has dominated the news agenda throughout the campaign.

On the other hand, the increase in the postal vote will help, so it seems likely the doomsday predictions (see below post from David Maddox) will not materialise, I therefore confidently predict a turnout of around the 30 per cent mark and fully expect to be proved hopelessly wrong tomorrow morning.

Glasgow North East, Eileen Baxendale, Liberal Democrats - Making the Difference in Glasgow North East

Another day in the by-election campaign and more doom and gloom statistics for the good people of Glasgow North East to contend with.

We should be helping people not drowning them in statistics about unemployment and benefits.

I want to put my 20+ years experience as a social worker and manager to good use.

Tavish Scott and I have met people from all across the constituency, employed, unemployed, at school, college and university, pensioners who have done their bit and many more besides.

They are looking for answers, not headlines and because I'm not a career politician like some of the others I want to be given that chance tomorrow and put my experience from the real world to good use here in Glasgow North East and help them get the answers.

I want to ask the Governments and the Council how the spending in Glasgow is allocated, down to the last penny and is it fair? Is it going to the right people?

I am certain that the Liberal Democrats and I can make a difference and provide the change in Glasgow North East that is so badly needed.

Labour have had 74 years and have failed. The Conservatives are to busy propping up the SNP in Holyrood and not making the right calls in Westminster.

They voted with Labour on the Iraq war when Charles Kennedy and Ming Campbell led the Liberal Democrats opposition to the unjust and illegal war.

The Conservatives got it massively wrong on Europe and the recession when Vince Cable led the way, a long time before the experts.

We can't trust the SNP, just look at the promises they made in 2007, knowing full well they could never keep them all, just to get elected!

It is this legacy of broken promises and bad decisions from both Holyrood and Westminster as well as the issue of MP expenses that are losing politicians respect.

Well I'm a different kind of politician, I'm a real person and I believe working together we can change Glasgow North East, and its time for that change tomorrow.

By voting for the Liberal Democrats let's bring a halt to the nonsense and change Glasgow North East's future for ever.

The polling stations are open from 7am to 10pm and you don't need your polling card to vote.

Eileen Baxendale
Liberal Democrat candidate

David Maddox: Inspiring candidates

As many of the papers have noted this morning there is concern that Glasgow North East could set a new low in the turnout records for Scotland.
Some commentators have suggested that it may be around 25 per cent, which is pretty depressing considering the effort that has gone into this by-election by the various parties and that it is the last serious test, with the possible exception of the English council elections, before next year's general election.
However, it will struggle to beat the all time record of 19.6 per cent set in 1999 when Hilary Benn, the son of Tony Benn who is now a cabinet minister, was elected as the MP for Leeds Central.
But one interesting statistic is that the previous Scottish record was 36.6 per cent in Falkirk West in 2000 when Eric Joyce won for Labour.
Who was the defeated SNP candidate then? It was David Kerr of this very same by-election.

Glasgow NE: Willie Bain, Labour. EDDIE IZZARD DROPS BY

It is not every day that a famous comedian drops into my campaign centre to lend support to the by-election battle, and so it was a great pleasure to welcome Eddie Izzard to Springburn this morning.

We are all familiar I am sure with Eddie Izzard on stage, but it is great to meet the man behind the jokes. As tempting as it was to share the odd joke, we thought we'd give him a break before his show tonight.

Funnily enough, it is not the first time I have met Eddie Izzard. We met by chance when he, quite literally, ran past me on Springburn Road back in September while he was taking part in his charity marathons.

When I heard he was in Glasgow today I asked him to pop by to speak to the campaign team and was delighted he said yes. Staff and volunteers showed him around the campaign centre and chatted to him about what we have been doing over the past few months. He was also genuinely interested to hear what my campaign is all about.

I have had great support throughout the campaign and I will fight to the last minute to convince people to choose me tomorrow. I've been out knocking on doors with Iain Gray, Douglas Alexander - and later I'll be with Jim Murphy.

Willie Bain

Labour's by-election candidate

Glasgow North East: Ruth Davidson: Giving people the skills to succeed

I’ve been out today on the campaign trail with Michael Gove MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Children, Schools & Families visiting the campus at North Glasgow College, in Springburn.

I feel that I know the College very well by now, it has played host to several events during the campaign, and it was great to be able to be able to show Michael around.

Earlier this week I wrote about Conservative plans to get Glasgow, and Britain, working again. However, there is no point in creating new jobs if we don’t give people the skills to do the jobs well.

What is really sad is that many schools force kids who are not academic, to study subjects they don’t enjoy and which they don't do very well in. They then leave school without the skills that they need to get a job and to succeed. Because of that they end up unable to get a job, and get trapped in a cycle of poverty.

Labour have done nothing about this. During the last 12 years they have created a benefits system which punishes people who want to work – with marginal tax rates of above 90%.

Labour’s failed system therefore discourages kids at school from learning the skills that they need, and then once they are adults they are discouraged from coming off benefits. And Labour claim that the Tories are the party who don’t care about poverty.

It can’t be said enough times, the best route out of poverty for people is through work. By getting a job people obviously get extra money. But working also builds up self-respect, a sense of community, and an involvement in the wider world which just doesn’t happen if you are unemployed.

That's why the Scottish Conservatives have talked about introducing more vocational training into schools in Scotland. And it is why places like North Glasgow College play such an important role in giving people the vocational skills they need to get jobs.

Michael said afterwards what a pleasure it was to visit the College. Both of us were very impressed with the staff and students who are working hard to acquire the skills needed for the world of work. We need to encourage more people to come here and learn these skills. That means dealing with Labour’s pernicious benefits system, and it means creating jobs. Only the Conservatives have the policies and ideas that can make that happen.

Glasgow NE: Willie Bain, Labour. FINAL 48 HOUR PUSH

Polling day is just two days away, and my campaign is gearing up for a final push to persuade local people that I will work hard for everyone here if they choose me to represent them.

I will continue to disregard the speculation and bookmakers' predictions about how this by-election will end - it will be a close battle and I am fighting for every vote. The vast majority of people have not yet cast their vote and I want to talk to as many of them as possible.

My focus over the next few days will be to encourage my neighbours and others who live in the constituency to make that trip to the polling station, because I want to see a good turn-out.

What drives me is the chance to make the area where I grew up and still live today a better and fairer place to be. I will fight for jobs and more opportunities for young people, and that is the message I took to John Wheatley College today as I met with staff and students at the fantastic new campus on Haghill Road.

Tackling crime, and in particular knife crime, is also one of my priorities. I welcomed Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Baker to the constituency today and I am pleased that he backs my 'carry a knife, go to jail' campaign. We need a stronger deterrent to stop people carrying a blade and using weapons to attack people.

As polling day gets closer, I hope I have worked hard enough to convince people in my area to put their trust in me - but we are still 48 hours away from polling and there are thousands of people still to speak to.

Willie Bain
Labour's by-election candidate

Chris Mackie: Pwoud of the Wabour Party

So, Sir Alex Ferguson has lent his support to Labour candidate Willie Bain's campaign for the now imminent Glasgow North East by-election (see entry by Willie below).
Playing up his former role as a shop steward Sir Alex urged local voters to turn out for the Labour candidate, saying: "I always tell young players that being a footballer is the best job in the world. Yes, it’s hard work to reach the top but nothing to bringing up a family or running a household on a tight budget. As the only genuinely local candidate in this election, Willie understands what needs to be done."

Quite how significant the endorsement of a former Rangers player, born in Govan will prove in the Celtic steeped neighbourhoods of Springburn, only time will tell.

Sir Alex is by no means the first football figure to become involved in politics - Bill Shankly was a declared socialist - but his views are significantly more moderate than some others connected to the beautiful game...

Despite turning out for Celtic - a traditionally left-leaning club - former Italy striker Paolo Di Canio is a self-proclaimed fascist, who stoked controversy in Italy in the aftermath of a Rome derby in 2005, when he offered the Lazio "ultras" a straight arm salute. It was the third time he had made the gesture during that season, and earned him a £7,000 fine and a one game ban. In the wake of the salute Di Canio told an Italian news agency: "I am a fascist, not a racist."

At the other end of the spectrum, Oleguer Presas i Renom, the former Barcelona midfielder and avowed Catalan nationalist refuses to play for Spain or speak Spanish in public and was regularly booed in away grounds in La Liga because of his outspoken anti-Spanish government views. In 2007, he lost a boot sponsorship deal after writing an opinion piece in a Basque newspaper questioning the validity of the Spanish judicial system in dealing with a member of the terrorist group ETA.

As for Scotland, a trawl through the Scotsman archives throws up the following incendiary insight from Pat Nevin, the ex-Chelsea, Everton, Kilmarnock and Motherwell winger. When asked if he supported independence, he said:

"I am not a huge fanatic either way, though I am leaning towards independence - but it's not a fanatical 'let's do it tomorrow' and kick down the doors of parliament."

David Maddox: Don't count your chickens....

Labour have just put out a press release with the following subject title: "Words from the Prime Minister on Willie Bain's election"

I know Labour are confident about Willie Bain winning Glasgow North East, but perhaps they should wait for the voters to do their bit on Thursday before announcing the result.

Just to clear up any confusion these were not words from Gordon Brown prepared in the event of Mr Bain's anticipated victory, but comments from his morning briefing of journalists supporting his party's candidate.

Glasgow North East, Conservatives: Getting Glasgow Back to Work

Perhaps the biggest theme of the campaign has been how many people have come to me worried about Labour’s jobs crisis. There are 4,212 people in the constituency who have to claim unemployment benefit. That’s up nearly a thousand (989) in just a year and gives Glasgow North East the highest claimant rate in Scotland. That’s Labour’s legacy to Glasgow, unemployment and a jobs crisis.

Labour’s record in Glasgow shows a worrying complacency. Labour closed one Job Centre in Glasgow North East and replaced much of the face-to-face contact in the other with a mere telephone helpline. That isn’t going to help people get jobs. Labour have claimed in this by-election that they care about getting people back into work – but their actions in government don’t back that up. Broken promises and a broken economy, that’s all we get from Labour.

The Conservatives are different. We want to help people get into work because we realise how important jobs are for people. The Conservatives have the policies to bring new jobs, help the unemployed retrain, and tackle Labour’s debt mountain that threatens to hamper investment.

So we will provide tax breaks for new companies who provide new jobs. We will free up credit to help businesses. And we have a radical welfare plan that will help people who are out of work to get back into employment by providing the individual support they need, as well as providing incentives for providers who can help those in the most difficult circumstances get back into work.

This sounds like a tough message – as if we are forcing people to work. But in reality there is nothing compassionate about the current situation where people are left isolated outside society. We need to integrate people into work, support them, and help them. Most people don’t want to be on benefits, but the current system forces them there and then abandons them. That’s not progressive, and it’s not what the people of Glasgow North East need.

These are the Conservative plans to get Glasgow working again. But the only way that can happen is if you vote for the Conservatives at this by-election, and at the upcoming General Election. Only Labour or the Conservatives can become the next Government, and therefore the choice is between this failing Labour Government, or a fresh government, with real ideas to tackle the jobs crisis and recession, led by David Cameron.

Glasgow NE: Willie Bain, Labour. Sir Alex - united with team Labour

I was delighted to learn that Sir Alex Ferguson has decided to endorse my campaign for Glasgow North East.

As a Glasgow man himself, Sir Alex knows how the people of Glasgow think and feel. Despite his success, Sir Alex has always stayed true to his roots.

He knows that people need help now to get through these difficult times.

I think Sir Alex’s endorsement is a real boost my campaign. He is well respected by people here – and he knows a thing or two about running a good campaign.

You can head over to my website to see what he has to say. This is me at Petershill FC last week - in the rain.

Willie Bain
Labour's by-election candidate.

David Doherty, Scottish Greens: why I'm standing in Glasgow North East

Over the last few years, Glasgow has become one of the Greenest parts of Scotland, and Glasgow North East is no exception.

Glaswegians are represented at Holyrood by Patrick Harvie MSP, and the city has returned five Green Councillors, one of whom, my colleague Kieran Wild, represents Canal Ward here in Glasgow North East.

In the Euro-elections Greens came third in Glasgow North East, ahead of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, although it'd be dishonest to put out a leaflet saying "only Greens can win here".

It's not hard to see why Glasgow's increasingly backing the Greens. Our major campaign at Holyrood over the last year has been to try and insulate all of Scotland's homes, cutting bills, boosting jobs, tackling fuel poverty and beating climate change all in one go. As a volunteer I'm on the board of a building renovation charity, and I'm only too aware of the problems in this area across the city. The parties who've governed Glasgow, locally and nationally, should be ashamed of themselves for letting people continue to suffer in damp, unhealthy and expensive homes.

What's more, Labour and the SNP may be bickering about GARL, but only the Greens have consistently opposed the M74 currently being bulldozed through the South East of the City. We could have had Crossrail built by now for a fraction of the cost of this motorway, but sadly only Greens continue to make that case.

Finally, Glasgow's economy has taken a serious blow from the credit crunch and the recession, and people are understandably reluctant to back any of the parties who celebrated the risk-takers, backed the deregulators and handed over vast amounts of our money to the bankers. Pretending it all never happened isn't a long-term response to this crisis, nor is it a sustainable one.

So, let me be the first candidate to admit this election isn't in the bag for us, but we are part of the world's fastest-growing political movement, and we have confounded the naysayers who said we couldn't get MSPs, MEPs or Councillors elected. Sometime soon I'm confident we'll make that Westminster breakthrough, and people in Glasgow North East can be the first to deliver that radical change.

Eddie Barnes: Kerr throws it away

Is this a moment which David Kerr will come to regret? In the TV debate show last night on STV's Politics Now programme, the SNP candidate had a moment of madness. Click here and scroll forward to five minutes in for the full details. I was among those watching the show in STV's green room, along with all the various party spin doctors and I can assure you that none of them thought it was the greatest moment in by-election history.

But the debate was an excellent format, allowing each candidate to cross-examine one another, with host Bernard Ponsonby offering some light-touch chairmanship from the sidelines. Definitely one for the future. We learnt that Labour candidate Willie Bain opposed the invasion of Iraq (which Labour candidate doesn't these days?) and that Kerr thinks the cancellation of the Glasgow Airport Rail Link was the right thing to do, in tough economic circumstances.

Ponsonby, who lives in the Glasgow North East seat, said before going on air that he had brought along his postal vote and would decide who to vote for after chairing the debate. Sadly, Bernard was too much of a pro afterwards to let us know what he had decided. But congrats to STV for a well-conceived show.

The Steamie: Welcome to the virtual by-election

The Steamie today brings you a first in Scottish politics and Scottish journalism.

Over the coming week candidates in the Glasgow North-East by-election, in adddition to fighting the contest on the doorsteps and on the hustings, will be taking the fight online.

Candidates for the main Scottish parliamentary parties will be be guest bloggers here on The Steamie for the duration of the by-election.

They'll be announcing their policies and their plans here, and taking on their opponents' arguments as well, making The Steamie a major forum for the by-election debate.

And of course, there will be the chance for readers of The Steamie to comment on their contributions.

The internet, one of the most influential tools in the US presidential election last year, is still an untested forum in Scottish and UK politics. But it is certain to be an important part of the forthcoming general election.

This virtual by-election on The Steamie is a chance for all sides to get a taste of that future.

Kenny Farquharson
Deputy Editor
Scotland on Sunday

Glasgow North East: Eileen Baxendale, Liberal Democrats; Campaigning for Change

I think this is a great idea from the Steamie. I would love to see more newspapers and media outlets adopt innovative approaches to help get more people engaged in politics.

I want to say right from the start that I think it was simply outrageous that the Labour party have allowed the people in Glasgow North East to go without an MP for so long, well over 125 days now. This just shows that the Labour Government has lost touch with the people it serves.

Since this campaign kicked off all those weeks ago, I have been working hard, knocking on doors and listening to people right across the constituency.

The message that I am getting again and again is that people are fed up being overlooked and ignored and that they want change. They want their politician’s focus to be on sorting the economy, creating more local jobs and tackling local crime.

I believe that it is Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats that have the policies and ideas to make a real difference on these issues.

To really tackle these problems we need more than just sensationalist, headline grabbing soundbites. We need a new approach.

On the economy and banking, it is Vince Cable that has been the voice of reasoned authority over recent months. It was he who first warned about the impending economic collapse. Labour were too slow to act and the Tories were simply nowhere on sorting out the economy.

On tackling crime and creating jobs, Liberal Democrats believe that this is best done at a local level. We are committed to putting the heart back into our communities and giving local people a greater say over their own affairs.

Locking everyone up and sending our young people to prison is not the best way to tackle crime and anti-social behaviour. We need more community based initiatives that tackle the root causes of why young people in our society get involved in crime in the fist place.

Labour’s recession has led to tough times for all of us. The Liberal Democrats want to sort out the tax system to give a boost to those on low and middle incomes. We want to raise the income tax threshold so those on less than £10,000 a year don’t pay tax. This would put around £700 a year back into the pockets of those on low and middle incomes.

It is the Liberal Democrats who are the only party offering real progressive change to our society. Unlike the SNP it is the Liberal Democrats who can make a real difference at Westminster and stand up for the people of Glasgow North East.

Glasgow North East: Ruth Davidson, Conservative: Trust in Politics

Well done the Steamie for coming up with this idea. I’ve been blogging on this campaign for sometime and I’m glad now the other candidates won’t be able to run away when I ask them a question!

During the five months that this campaign has been running it has become clear that the issues in Glasgow North East are not that different from those across Britain. People are worried about their jobs, worried about Labour's recession, worried about public services, and worried about crime.

MP's from all parties have betrayed the trust that the public had placed in them. That is why David Cameron apologised as soon as the details of MP's expenses claims came out, because it was wrong and the people of Britain deserved an apology. It was then that he said he wanted a new type of politics - which was when I decided I should put myself forward as a candidate. I am not a career politician, but I do believe that politics needs new people to get involved, get stuck in, and try and change things for the better. As candidates we all need to work to restore the public’s trust in politics.

That is why the very first thing I did following selection was to promise to run a clean campaign - which I invited all the other candidates to join. I have kept to that - the Conservatives won’t use personal attacks in order to get votes. That is why I have pledged to be open about my expenses if elected. Simple things, not exploiting expenses, discussing the issues not the personalities, but I think that they help people to believe I will keep my word if elected.

David Cameron and the Conservative Party believe the same thing. That is why we have been honest about the problems with the public finances. Instead of pretending nothing needed done, the Conservatives have told the truth that there will have to be savings in Government spending. We don't want to reduce spending, but we have to be realistic and tell people the harsh truth that Labour have spent all the money – and it is up to the next Government to repair the damage.

That’s why in the Scottish Parliament we have identified ¼ billion pounds worth of savings. Take Scottish Water out of public ownership, stop this nonsense of free prescriptions and free school meals for people who can afford to pay. Some things in life are not free – we have to accept that, especially in this current climate.

This election is about which party can bring the change that is needed to Glasgow North East, and to Britain. The Conservatives have the policies that will create jobs, repair the public finances, and help to fix our broken society. Most of all, we are the party that will be open and honest with the public – that’s what is needed to help rebuild trust in politics.

David Maddox: It's a local by-election for local people

The atmosphere of Glasgow North East in recent days has been something akin to the League of Gentlemen's mythical town of Royston Vasey.

The press releases from Labour and the SNP could almost have been written by Tubbs and her husband (and brother) Edward (pictured) from "the local shop".

People who don't approve of outsiders who don't understand their local ways, telling incomers "there's nothing for you here."

You can almost hear the incessant question "Are you local?" echoing around Springburn.

First we had Labour's Willie Bain banging on about being the "only local candidate". Then the SNP's David Kerr pretended to have been born there after pretending in the 2000 Falkirk West by-election that he was born in Cumbernauld.

His boss - Alex Salmond - compounded the problem by saying there were no maternity hospitals in Glasgow North East in 1973, when in fact there were two.

Then the whole thing came to an excruciating climax when in revenge, the SNP today put out a press release complaining that Mr Bain who lives in Springburn was claiming to be "local" in other parts of the constituency.

The whole episode is painfully embarrassing and parochial.

Why should anybody care?

Here's a thing - what about electing somebody with some ability?

Eddie Barnes - SNP has it all to do in Glasgow NE

ALEX Salmond has raised some speculation about an SNP surge by announcing he is to head back to Glasgow North East on Monday, having just left there yesterday. This after saying he was going to play a low key role. A year and a bit after they won in Glasgow East, is there about to be another shock on the same streets?

Having lowered expectations over the summer and early autumn about their chances, the SNP is now casting itself in the role of the plucky underdog, gaining ground on the tiring front-runner. They are hoping to time their run-in like they did in Glasgow East when they similarly came from behind on the final straight.

But there is a big difference between Glasgow East and Glasgow North East. When the campaign bus arrived in Glasgow East last summer, Labour activsts discovered that they had precisely no information whatsoever about the local electorate. So instead of knocking up their own support, or offering prepared messages to swing voters, the party had to spend ages simply going out to find the people who might vote for them. It was a mess. In North-East, however, I'm told that the campaign apparently already knows the voting behaviour of more than 40% of the local residents. So they know where their support is and they can target them and get them out.

Still all to play for, but Labour has a much stronger base position than it had last summer.

David Maddox: Things that should not be done with parliamentary equipment

Labour MSP Karen Whitefield (pictured top left) has been landed in a spot of bother today by her parliamentary researcher who put out the following e-mail:



From: <Karen.Whitefield.msp@scottish.parliament.uk>
Date: 27 October 2009 10:22:46 GMT
Subject: Telephone Canvassing for Glasgow North East
Dear Colleagues
Just a reminder that Usdaw have agreed to open their Edinburgh Office on Wednesday night for MSPs/ MSP researchers to help with telephone canvassing for the Glasgow North East by election.
The office will be open between 5.30pm and 8pm.
If you can spare an hour or so to help out, please let me know ASAP - a voting button is attached.
Usdaw will also be opening up next Wednesday evening so if you could help then, please let me know.
Thanks
Cara
Cara Hilton Parliamentary Researcher to Karen Whitefield MSP for Airdrie & Shotts



Unfortunately Ms Hilton managed to send this e-mail not only to Labour MSPs and researchers, but every single one in the Scottish Parliament, including all the other parties. In fairness Ms Hilton did realise her mistake and try to recall the e-mail but too late.
For those who do not know this breaks the code of practice, which is that MSPs must not use their staff during work time or parliamentary facilities for political campaigning of this nature.
The reason for this rule is that tax payers' money should not be used for party political activities.
Naturally, complaints were made and Ms Whitefield has had to give the authorities assurances that her office has not done this before nor will it do it again.
But there was an interesting lack of public complaining about and parties calling the media to cry foul, which suggests that this sort of thing may be more widespread than this one indiscretion.

But this is not the only indiscretion to come my way today. I note that Lib Dem Dunfermline and West Fife MP has been a bit sulky about the beeb on his Twitter.
He wrote: "is not impressed by Radio Scotland's Scotland@10 - I did them a favour by staying late but then got cut out half the slot."
I guess worse things happen, even to sulky MPs.

David Maddox: How not to sum up your candidate's chances

When the Conservatives launched their campaign for Glasgow North East today it was perhaps not a good idea to get their candidate, former BBC journalist Ruth Davidson, under a sign marked "Turkey".
Then again it was not a great plan to put her under a sign marked "you deserve a holiday" either. This may reflect Ms Davidson's 100/1 chances according to the bookies, behind John Smeaton who may apparently not even stand.
Not sure if it was former STV star cum spindoctor Michael Crow's finest hour.
They will no doubt be hoping there is no talk of turkeys when David Cameron visits tomorrow.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (20) - Odd predictions for Glasgow North East

Ladbrokes have just issued their odds for the declared candidates in Glasgow North East. The biggest surprise are the small odds for former Glasgow Airport bomb hero John 'Smeato' Smeaton who has just been announced as the Jury Team candidate.
His odds of 8/1 are much shorter than two of the established parties, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, who admittedly stand a snowflake in Hell's chance of winning the seat. Strange though considering the Jury Team got the least number of votes in the recent European elections.
Ladbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison explains: "Over-turning a Labour majority of 10,000 will be tough, even for a bloke who set aboot suicide bombers. But if anyone can, Smeato can."
Apparently he may not have said that had he witnessed the press conference launching Smeato as the candidate. I'm told by a colleague it got so out of hand he struggled so much that the Jury Team minders had to step in to cut it short. The event was punctured by long pauses as he struggled to answer basic questions.
Which goes to prove tackling suicide bombers is one thing, tackling hardened Scottish political hacks is an altogether different prospect.

Anyway here are Ladbrokes' odds for Glasgow North East:

Willie Bain (Labour) 4/6
David Kerr (SNP) 5/4
John Smeaton (Jury Team) 8/1
Ruth Davidson (Conservative) 100/1
Eileen Baxendale (Liberal Democrats) 100/1
Tommy Sheridan (Solidarity) 100/1
John Swinburne (Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party) 200/1
Kevin McVey (Scottish Socialist Party) 200/1
Charlie Baillie (BNP) 500/1

David Maddox: At the risk of sounding like a cybernat...

This item Labour have just put out is possibly the most outrageous press release I can remember in my time in Holyrood, which is saying quite a lot.
I will spare you most of the gory details, but entitled: "SALMOND THREATENS TO CANCEL MORE GLASGOW PROJECTS" it claims that the First Minister during FMQs threatened to "cancel the new Southern General Hospital and the National Indoor Sports Arena if he does not get his way on the cancellation of the Glasgow Airport Rail Link."
It then quotes Glasgow Shettleston MSP Frank McAveety: “The First Minister’s threat to take away funding for the National Indoor Sports Arena is just more bluster. He knows fine well that he signed a commitment to deliver this facility, which is vital to the success of the Commonwealth Games."
I had to check with some fellow hacks, that I had not dreamed what really happened in FMQs. They confirmed to me that none of the above press release is true. Mr Salmond used those projects as examples of how Glasgow is still getting a lot of infrastructure investment and at no point was there a threat to cancel them. I write this as a journalist who has not exactly been shy of criticising the First Minister.
This release probably has something to do with upcoming Glasgow North East by-election and, as a colleague pointed out to me, there are a lot of weekly papers who do not have staff here who may pick it up and report it as fact.
Not exactly the most honourable moment for Labour in Holyrood, even if ultimately it is effective.

David Maddox: The not so secret diary of John Mason

Having spent most of his summer last year campaigning in and then winning the Glasgow East by-election for the SNP you would have thought that John Mason (pictured) would relish the chance to have a proper holiday this year.
It is not as if the man who famously refuses to have a television in his house would want to sit back with his feet up at home and he is known to enjoy a spot of hiking, which in a way is what he did.
The Steamie can now reveal how he spent his summer hols, courtesy of his report to Garrowhill Community Council on 2 September where, like a boxer, he refers to himself in the third person:
"John wanted to do something practical during the recess. He gets annoyed at the amount of litter, dog fouling, fly posting etc. So he decided to remove some of the fly posting: 130 taken down so far!"
I gather that residents in his neighbouring constituency - Glasgow North East - are quite keen on his fly poster taking down services due to the amount of pesky posting by his own and other political parties for the forthcoming by-election.

David Maddox: Just for laughs

There was much angst (mainly from Labour) about the First Minister Alex Salmond making a joke about the events of recent weeks surrounding the release of a convicted mass murderer and his hero's welcome in Tripoli.
His friendly poking of fun at Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill at Tuesday's government funded National Conversation event in Glasgow North-east (the by-election constituency), seemed to go down with (Nationalist) parts of the audience.
The question is whether he is better as a stand-up comedian than club singer? we all remember that Caledonia session with Sandi Thom.
The Steamie has been supplied with a clip of Mr Salmond's hilarity. Click on the link to share in the joke or, if you are so inclined, feel a flush of fury at his light hearted treatment of such a serious matter.
salmond%20%27joke%27.mp3

Eddie Barnes: Al-Megrahi and Glasgow North-East

In my column in the Scotsman this morning, I look at how the release of the Lockerbie bomber is going to play out electorally ahead of the Holyrood vote. I forgot to mention the small matter of the Glasgow North-East by election, to be held in November, as well.

According to gleeful Labour canvassers on the streets, Kenny MacAskill's decision to release Mr Al-Megrahi is going down like the proverbial lead balloon - adding to the theory that while the decision will go down well in Glasgow's West End and Edinburgh's Morningside, it won't get quite such a tolerant response in Shettleston and Wester Hailes.

Then last night, the SNP apropos nothing released a statement from their Glasgow North-East candidate David Kerr.

Declares Kerr: "When I first heard of Kenny MacAskill's decision last week, I confess I was sceptical, and my initial thought was that he could perhaps be released into the care of a hospice in Scotland."

"However, like everyone else, I have now had the opportunity to hear the arguments. I watched the Justice Secretary's parliamentary statement on Monday very carefully, and it is obvious that this option would have been totally impractical on the basis of the unacceptable level of security required. In light of all the information and arguments that have come forward, it is now quite clear to me, and I believe a growing number of people in Scotland - of all parties and none - that the Justice Secretary took the right decision, and above all he took it for the right reasons."

What an odd statement. Why bother admitting that you initially disagreed with the idea? Why?

Let's imagine a scene from the Glasgow doorsteps.

Knock on the door. "Good morning. My name is David Kerr. I'm the SNP candidate. Can I count on your vote?"

"Whit? SNP? You tell that ****in' Kenny MacAskill and that ****in' Alex Salmond I'd vote fae ma' dug before I'd vote fae you ***tards. Letting oot criminals! Have ye' lost your mind?"

Kerr shuffles feet, looks over shoulder. "Well of course, between the two of us. I had my doubts as well. In fact, if you read my statement......"

David Maddox: Attack of the clones

There is a rumour going around that the Tories have a secret factory which churns out by-election candidates. The evidence appears to be with these pictures of Ruth Davidson, the former BBC journalist just selected to fight Glasgow North-east, and Chloe Smith, who just won Norwich North for the Tories.

I'm still not entirely sure which is which.

Eddie Barnes - ok, by-election for November

Labour MPs have voted down the SNP motion, so there'll be no moving of writs today - and therefore no by-election in the summer hols (unless parliament is recalled - see below).

A good days work for the SNP all round. They can now tell the good people of Glasgow North-East that the Labour party cynically voted against an immediate by-election, that they are scared of the voters, and that they've deprived them of an MP for four months (how will they people ever cope?) They can say they stood up for democracy.

And they get to do all this while ending up with the outcome that I'm told they wanted in the first place - ie, a delayed by-election. The party candidate David Kerr now has a precious few months to get to know the constituency backwards.

This could be an interesting contest.

Eddie Barnes - By-election for November?

Update.....The SNP has just moved a motion to mandate the Speaker to set a date for the by-election. The Labour chief whip has objected and there will be a vote at 3:30pm. The SNP MP Stewart Hosie is taking great pleasure in accusing Labour MPs of denying puters in Glasgow North East an immediate vote.

More later.....

Eddie Barnes - By-election for November

Unless Labour changes its mind in the next few hours, the Glasgow North East by-election won't be taking place until November. The rules of the House of Commons bar a party from calling a by-election during recess, meaning that - once the House rises for the summer this evening - it won't be until October until the writ can be moved. The by-election must then be held within 21 days.

Labour says it is delaying because it doesn't want to hold a by-election in early August when many people in Glasgow are still on holiday. Seeing as it is only a year ago that Labour held a by-election in Glasgow in midsummer (July 24th to be exact; they lost Glasgow East) this explanation is being taken with a pinch of salt. Conspiracist SNP strategists are muttering darkly that the real reason for Labour's delay is because it wants the by-election in early November so that it clashes with the Nationalists' annual conference, in Inverness, which is being held just beforehand.

Whatever the truth, the SNP isn't complaining. After all, if the delay really was so bad, they could move the writ themselves. In fact, the delay helps them. Following the tortuous selection process which saw two candidates drop out, before former BBC journalist David Kerr was given the post last week, the SNP will welcome the time he now has to get round the constituency.

Despite Kerr's various difficulties thus far (see previous posts), there is little doubt that he is the candidate that many Labour high-ups didn't want. Which - to my mind - makes it all the more puzzling as to why Labour has now given him time to set up an operation. Hesitation is fatal after all....

Labour does have one other option. If parliament is recalled this summer because of the Swine flu crisis, the writ could be moved then, meaning a by-election in late August or early September. Party sources say this would is their most favoured option.

Not that they actually want the flu pandemic to get worse, I should add.

Chris Mackie: By-election speculation

There is an interesting piece of counter-intuitive thinking in this blog post by Evening Standard lobby hack Paul Waugh on the difference between the Norwich North and Glasgow North East by-elections.

His contention is that the delay in scheduling the Glasgow by-election is less to do with the Labour Party running scared of a Nationalist defeat and more to do with the thought that they might actually win the vote.

Here is the key section: "Why the difference between the two? Well, there's the obvious reason that Labour thinks it will actually win Glasgow whereas it seems to have given up hope in Norwich.
"But more relevant must be Labour's last by-election victory. Unlike Glasgow East, where the SNP gave Labour a kicking, Glenrothes saw Lindsay Roy sweep home relatively easily because lots of work had been put into finding the right candidate and doing the hard work on the ground."

There is undoubtedly some truth to this, but the delay in the Glenrothes campaign was not just about doing the hard work on the ground - it was also about mobilising a Labour machine in a constituency in which it had not faced credible competition for many years. Despite losing a seat they were confident of taking, the very fact Labour had to work so hard to win in Glenrothes was a triumph of sorts for the SNP. It points very clearly to a general election campaign to be fought in battlegrounds in which Labour activists are unused to fighting genuine contenders.

That must be a particular headache for local parties used to routinely returning incumbent Labour MPs, especially in the case of Glasgow North East, where, by virtue of Parliamentary convention, Labour has faced no notable opposition apart from the SNP in each of the elections since 1997. The headache might well become a migraine when the party studies its - already parlous - finances and finds that funds earmarked to fight nationally important marginals, have to be diverted to shore up its core vote in previously safe seats.

So yes, Labour may be confident of winning in Glasgow North East, but the apparent need to give its local activists as much time as it possibly can to run an effective campaign shows how fragile that confidence is.

David Maddox: Whither Paul Martin?

Anybody who heard Speaker Michael Martin's statement to the Commons a few minutes ago will know that he is holding on desperately to his job and his seat.

But one interesting question it raises up here is on the future of his son, Glasgow Springburn MSP Paul Martin (pictured right).

It has long been open gossip in Holyrood that the Speaker was hoping to pass on his Glasgow North East seat to his son. If it were true it would seem to be an example of the sort of self-interested practice which has come under question in recent days.

The question is now whether the constituency party would want to now put the Speaker's son in his place given the bad publicity that is now attached to the Martin name, although that has absolutely nothing to do with Paul Martin.

And if the Speaker does step down and as a result quits as an MP, which many think would be the inevitable consequence, then who would want to fight Glasgow North East for Labour?

Given what happened in Glasgow East and the recent opinion polls added to the lower level of damage to the Nationalists than Labour from the expenses scandal, would all point to another by-election victory for the SNP.