Chris Mackie: Glasgow North East - the turnout

There is some typically insightful stuff from Mike Smithson at his ever fascinating Political Betting blog this afternoon. Despite near-universal predictions of a depressingly low number of people actually bothering to cast their votes in today's Glasgow North East poll, Mike has a decent stab at arguing that the official turnout could be surprisingly high.

He argues: "Just look what happened a year ago in the last by election where Gordon Brown campaigned. That was held in early November and we saw more than 52% of those on the electoral roll recorded as voting - which wasn’t that far short of the general election figure. "

This, the increased postal vote and the 42 per cent turnout in the Glasgow East poll has led Mike to put his money on the turnout being higher than 38 per cent.

Despite the weather in Glasgow holding up so far, I think this is slightly optimistic. The big issue he fails to tackle is the impact of the expenses scandal and the resultant voter apathy - a problem felt especially keenly in a constituency such as Glasgow North East. This effect will be exacerbated by the absence of any real political fight in the seat since Michael Martin became speaker. Numerous party workers have told us of the logistical problems they have faced during this campaign caused by the lack of any meaningful voter data or polling records on which to base their campaign strategy.

Things have not been helped, frankly, by the vague air of chaos around the whole enterprise caused by the existence of a number of no-hoper candidates all fighting for attention. That is undoubtedly a welcome sight in any democracy, but it has not helped any semblance of a pervasive narrative for the election break through to the media and subsequently, the voters.

The Glenrothes and Glasgow East fight were fascinating contests because they represented a clear referendum on the popularity of the Labour government. This contest has no such backdrop, despite the efforts of the SNP, and that is partly because of the number of competing voices shouting to be heard. There have been snatches of the BNP furore, a smidgen of red-faced socialist outrage and a touch of Tory toffage, but nothing that has dominated the news agenda throughout the campaign.

On the other hand, the increase in the postal vote will help, so it seems likely the doomsday predictions (see below post from David Maddox) will not materialise, I therefore confidently predict a turnout of around the 30 per cent mark and fully expect to be proved hopelessly wrong tomorrow morning.

David Maddox: The not so secret diary of John Mason

Having spent most of his summer last year campaigning in and then winning the Glasgow East by-election for the SNP you would have thought that John Mason (pictured) would relish the chance to have a proper holiday this year.
It is not as if the man who famously refuses to have a television in his house would want to sit back with his feet up at home and he is known to enjoy a spot of hiking, which in a way is what he did.
The Steamie can now reveal how he spent his summer hols, courtesy of his report to Garrowhill Community Council on 2 September where, like a boxer, he refers to himself in the third person:
"John wanted to do something practical during the recess. He gets annoyed at the amount of litter, dog fouling, fly posting etc. So he decided to remove some of the fly posting: 130 taken down so far!"
I gather that residents in his neighbouring constituency - Glasgow North East - are quite keen on his fly poster taking down services due to the amount of pesky posting by his own and other political parties for the forthcoming by-election.

David Maddox: Darling to woo Glasgow East? The answer

Just had a Labour spindoctor on the phone about the Chancellor's visit to Glasgow East.
"It's not what you think," he said. "Although obviously Glasgow east will be a key target in the next general election whenever that is."
He added: "Remember Margaret (Curran, the defeated by-election candidate who has just announced she will stand again) made a commitment in the by-election that win or lose she will bring Alistair Darling to ther constituency to hear the concerns of local people. That's what's happening today, although it will be a quick visit."
From what I remember of the Fort shopping centre in Easterhouse, the first place I went to during the by-election, Mr Darling may need to pencil in a bit more time. There were many shoppers there who had given up on Labour at the time and the relative poverty was underlined by the centre's propensity of pound, charity and loan shops.
But if things get to heavy for the Chancellor there is a shiny Labour Party office there for him to take cover in.

David Maddox: Darling to woo Glasgow East?

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, is in Glasgow today for a couple of engagements, the second of which is to meet "community leaders" at the Fort shopping centre in the city's east end.
Now you don't need a long memory to remember that Glasgow East was the scene of a particularly humiliating night in recent Labour history when the Nationalist John Mason won the by-election and overturned a massive majority to become the constituency's first non-Labour MP.
Is it a coincidence that just yesterday Margaret Curran, the MSP defeated by Mr Mason in the by-election, announced she was to stand again at the general election?
Could it be that Gordon Brown has sent his Chancellor up to woo the people of Glasgow East?
If the answer to the second question is "yes" then the SNP are feeling quite relaxed about it.
"Darling was voted most boring politician of the year two years running," one noted SNP spindoctor told me last night.

Hamish Macdonell - Second time lucky

MARGARET Curran has just announced she is to stand for Westminster at the next election, for Glasgow East, the seat she lost in this year's high-profile by-election.
Ms Curran stands a very good chance of unseating the SNP candidate John Mason in the election and gaining some, limited, revenge for the disastrous by-election defeat for Labour which precipatated the most serious problem for Gordon Brown of his premiership.
"I am a fighter. I said during the by-election that if you want a job done properly, ask a busy woman to do it. There is a job to be done in the East End of Glasgow and that’s why I am putting my name forward again," she said.
ends