George Lyon MEP in Copenhagen: COP15 turns into cop out by world leaders

What was heralded as the last chance to save the planet has become a rushed attempt by world leaders to save face.

The Copenhagen Accord that has been agreed by world leaders has no legally binding targets, no transparency to monitor progress towards the domestic targets set, and no target date for finalising a real global deal in the future.

COP15 has turned into a cop out. No matter how much they spin it, world leaders cannot, in good conscience, claim that this is a ‘meaningful agreement’.

If you wanted to look very, very hard for a silver lining, you could concede that it is a small step in the right direction given the potential for a complete collapse of talks as looked likely earlier on today.

But there is an overwhelming sense of frustration and deflation People, like the thousands of Scots who marched in the Wave protests, have every right to feel angered by the actions of those who they tasked with reaching a global solution to a global problem.

All quiet now at the Bella centre. That is how this agreement has been received – with deafening silence.

George Lyon MEP in Copenhagen: Face saving, not planet saving agreement

As talks in Copenhagen continue this evening, at least for the moment, spirits are rather low.

America and China produce over 50% of the world's carbon emissions: any deal here tonight will require them work together. Unfortunately, there appears to be stalemate.

Prior to today there was some hope that the US had come to the negotiating table ready to play ball. Hillary Clinton suggested that they might come forward with an offer of more money and concrete commitments.

Unfortunately that looks like it was all posturing. President Obama instead used his speech simply to assert that the US is ready to do a deal if China and others are prepared to be transparent.

China is refusing to budge. There's a bit of a culture clash here as the Chinese perceive international monitoring of their efforts as "snooping" and a breach of sovereignty, or at least that is the reason they are giving for refusing to open up.

That is a real shame. China has to understand that economic development should go hand in hand with political maturity. It is in their own interests to play a full role in international affairs, including the fight against climate change.

The draft Copenhagen Accord continues to look like a face saving, not a planet saving agreement.

Even the leaders' "family photograph" has now been postponed indefinitely. We wait for more news.

George Lyon MEP in Copenhagen: There will be no climate deal

I've just come from two separate briefings, one with the EU delegation and one with their Indian counterparts. Different briefings but the same message - there will be no climate deal.

Details are sketchy at the moment but the EU delegation has told me that China is digging its heels in over binding targets and the future inspection of those targets. There is a leaked draft agreement floating around that is ridiculously weak, but China would not even agree to sign up to that.

This is a huge shock. As I have stated in previous posts, it was becoming increasingly unlikely that a legally binding deal could be reached but it was always thought a political agreement would be finalised before world leaders leave Copenhagen.

However, now it looks as though, rather than being in deadlock, the talks are just dead.

World leaders are expected to leave the conference in the next couple of hours. I've just bumped into Ed Miliband, Sarkozy, Merkel and Barroso leaving a meeting, no doubt wondering what to say. Glum does not go far enough to describe the way they looked.

Of course, now the blame game will start. The EU and US are blaming China. Developing nations are blaming developed nations.

The attitude of the developing nations can be summed up by a conversation I've just had with a member of the Indian delegation. Agriculture is India's biggest industry. Limiting the planet to 2C of warming would cut 14 million tonnes of wheat out of their economy.

He told me: "Why would we sign up to something that will restrict our growth. We are not going to pay for the growth of western countries over the last century."

This is what the Copenhagen Climate Conference, heralded by some as the last chance to save the planet, has come to.

UPDATE: 1837 CET

I have a leaked copy of what the Indian delegation has called a 'holding statement' in my hands. It is tentatively called the Copenhagen Accord.

There are no binding targets, it allows developing or non-annex 1 countries to stick to targets set domestically, there is no transparent inspection in place to monitor those targets and it says that a review of this process will be undertaken in 2016 - a full six years after binding targets for all should be in place.

It is staggeringly weak. Can world leaders really pass this off as a substantial agreement? More to follow...

George Lyon MEP in Copenhagen: EU 'red lines' in negotiations

A little bit of behind the scenes information for you. I just had a meeting with the EU delegation, which is headed up by the Swedish Presidency. I asked them what their 'red lines' were in the negotiations. They told me:

1. All developed countries must sign up to a Kyoto level of bindingness
2. All emerging countries must sign up to real and appropriate commitments
3. There must be proper monitoring, reporting and verification of emission cuts

A few obvious sticking points there then, but it does give you a sense of diverse negotiating positions of the key players in Copenhagen.

George Lyon MEP in Copenhagen: Obama's speech moves US position by inches when we need him to go the extra mile

What did we learn from President Obama's address to the Copenhagen conference? The answer to that has to be 'not much'.

The scheduled proceedings were delayed by two hours as Obama held talks with nineteen other world leaders in a closed session. We thought that we might get some answers after they emerged and Obama took to the podium but no, not even a hint of progress.

We got the same resounding rhetoric from the President. He told us that he believes now "is the time for the nations and the people of the world to come together behind a common purpose." He added that world leaders were ready to get the job done today.

Good, because many delegates and even more protesters think they might have to wait to COP16 in Mexico for a legally binding agreement.

What we heard from Obama was not enough at this late stage. To give him credit, Obama has thrown down the gauntlet to China on the transparency issue and that gave a certain amount of positive momentum to proceedings yesterday.

But there has been very little movement in terms of targets from America. At the start of the process they said they would commit to a 17% cut in CO2 emissions below 2005 levels by 2020. This equates to about 4% below 1990 levels.

Let's put that in context. The African delegation, who walked out earlier in the week, wants a commitment to 40% cuts below 1990 levels. That is a huge gulf to bridge with only hours remaining of the Conference.

I hoped for more movement towards the European Parliament's position of 20:2020 - 20% reduction by 2020, with room to move up to 30% if other big emitters commit to big cuts.

President Obama's speech moved America forward by inches only. With the clock ticking we need every country to go the extra mile.

George Lyon MEP in Copenhagen: Slogans and pressure - what can Obama expect at COP15?

"Global justice now", "COP15, big failure", "One world, one consequence, one will?"

Just some of the slogans and chants being used at the final day of the Copenhagen climate summit. You certainly feel the pressure to deliver as you walk through the main entrance to the Bella Centre where the conference is being held.

People thrust flyers into your hands reminding you of the consequences of a two degree rise in global temperatures. They hold banners that show anything from a polar bear's habitat melting to famine in Africa. Some people even tried to convince me to become a vegan to stop global warming - not the most convincing argument to make to a former President of the NFU.

For me, one of the most moving protests was a group of people who decided to start shaving their heads, angered by the slow progress at the talks. This included young girls with long hair who started crying as it happened.

It is loud, very loud, and can be intimidating.

This is the welcome that President Obama will get when he arrives to address the conference. As if he could forget, he will be reminded by all the protesters that they are counting on him to deliver a global deal. Delegates are expectant, if not necessarily confident, of an agreement being reached by the days end.

The centre of Copenhagen came to a stand still in preparation for his motorcade as I walked from the train station to the conference centre. When he leaves later on this evening, the protestors will know if their slogans were listened to.

George Lyon MEP in Copenhagen: Clinton puts figure on develping nations fund for first time

Conferences like this are always consumed by rumour and speculation, claim and counter claim. Today I heard, from my MEP colleagues, that the EU was considering only putting 25% on the table, instead of the expected 30% that the Parliament were pushing for, in hope of kick starting a deal as the final day of negotiations approaches.

This was quickly denied by a spokesperson, recognising that many parliamentarians, including myself, would see this as a fatalistic move that would only serve to encourage other groups to lower their ambitions.

There is hard news though. One positive was Hillary Clinton’s speech to the Conference delivered earlier today. For the first time she put a figure to the amount of money developing countries need to help their economies grow while keeping emissions low.

She told delegates that it would take $100billion. The US Secretary of State would not put that on the record unless the US had some intention of putting real cash on the table to help developing countries buy into a deal.

With President Obama arriving tomorrow there are now signs that he will put his shoulder to the wheel and go the extra mile to secure an agreement.

So there are some sign of progress but it is becoming increasingly clear that a deal will be political, with no legal underpinning.

At a briefing a few minutes ago, the Swedish delegation, who hold the EU Presidency at the moment, said they were hopeful that a fringe group would be set up to try to clear some of the remaining obstacles to help them move towards an agreed text. Time is running out.

George Lyon MEP in Copenhagen: Finally arrived on the train, but will negotiations stay on track

I’ve just arrived at the Bella Centre in Copenhagen for the United Nations climate change conference. After a nineteen hour train journey across the snow covered tracks of northern Europe it is a welcome relief to arrive at the destination I’ve been building up to since the European elections in June.

Of course, others have been building up to this Summit for much, much longer. It is now twelve years since the Kyoto conference – a city that has become synonymous with international efforts to combat climate change, but also the ultimate failure of those efforts.

The problem with the Kyoto Protocol was that it omitted the two world's largest CO2 producers in the United States and China. The former because of Congressional alarm at pesky environmentalists dictating terms to the world’s only remaining superpower which had the potential to harm continued economic growth. The latter because it was still considered a ‘developing’ or non-annex 1 country and so was not bound by the targets set.

Without the participation of the two giants of the new century, Kyoto lacked the authority to back up its intent. But it did set the precedent for international action on climate change, and while it quickly lost momentum and credibility its long term legacy may be that world leaders learn from their mistakes.

That is the context in which the Copenhagen Conference is set. As world leaders arrive, it is still very much in the balance whether a global deal will be reached.

I hope to bring you the latest news from behind the scenes over the next couple of days on The Steamie. You can also follow me on Twitter – just follow @georgelyonmep

David Maddox: The growing influence of George Lyon

In these days when black apparently is the new white and vice versa, little should surprise. After all this day that is now drawing to an end was the day that the Tories called for bankers to lose their bonuses and the once upon a time socialist Labour party defended the bonuses.

Then we were also asked to believe that the avid Celtic fan and Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy had had a word with the bank to keep his team's bitter rivals Rangers in business and players.

But it is the story of a Rangers fan that is even more interesting - former Liberal Democrat Scottish Minister George Lyon (pictured right).

When he was turfed out as an MSP in 2007 many (including some in his own party) hoped they were bidding a not so fond farewell to the controversial politician. However, in June this year he returned to frontline politics as his party's one and only Scottish MEP. Since then there have been growing signs of his influence within the party at a time when the Scottish leader Tavish Scott appears to be losing his grip slightly.

Even the unfortunate affair of Rangers was taken jokingly by some as a sign of Lyon's power. Mr Scott issued a press release earlier today demanding that Mr Murphy intervened. was this because the Rangers loving George Lyon asked him to it was queried in the corridors of Holyrood?

But joking apart, there is one serious issue with which the two men appear to be having a power struggle - an independence referendum. Mr Lyon made it clear ahead of the party's conference in Bournemouth that he thought there should be one, breaking the party line set by Mr Scott to oppose a plebiscite. odd considering that Mr Lyon clearly enjoys singing Rule Britannia. Since then there has been a groundswell of support among members, candidates and some of the grandees in favour of Mr Lyon's position, despite Mr Scott's protestations.

The two shall have their day at the behind closed doors Lib Dem special conference which will discuss the matter. The way things are going you would not bet against Mr Lyon coming out on top.

David Maddox: ....and speaking of the Welsh

The leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Kirsty Williams (pictured), was in Holyrood today to meet her Scottish counterpart Tavish Scott.

Ms Williams, 38, became the first woman leader of a major party in the Welsh Assembly.

She shares one thing in common with Mr Scott in that she is credited/ blamed for wrecking her party's chance of going into a rainbow coalition to run the Principalities. While her objections though were more working with the Tories rather than Plaid Cymru (the Welsh Nats), it was Mr Scott's supposed dislike of the SNP, before he became leader, that is rumoured to have been the main block to a coalition with them and the Greens.

But the visit did bring one slightly cruel suggestion from one of the Lib Dems political adversaries based on last weekend's European election results.

It was speculated that Ms Williams was visiting to get advice on how to reach the dizzy heights of the fourth place and 11.5 per cent of the popular vote achieved by her Scottish colleagues from the fifth place with 10.7 per cent of the vote her party managed in Wales.

But on the bright side, maybe George Lyon might be prevailed upon to represent Welsh Lib Dems in Brussels as well as the Scottish ones.