David Maddox: ....and speaking of the Welsh

The leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Kirsty Williams (pictured), was in Holyrood today to meet her Scottish counterpart Tavish Scott.

Ms Williams, 38, became the first woman leader of a major party in the Welsh Assembly.

She shares one thing in common with Mr Scott in that she is credited/ blamed for wrecking her party's chance of going into a rainbow coalition to run the Principalities. While her objections though were more working with the Tories rather than Plaid Cymru (the Welsh Nats), it was Mr Scott's supposed dislike of the SNP, before he became leader, that is rumoured to have been the main block to a coalition with them and the Greens.

But the visit did bring one slightly cruel suggestion from one of the Lib Dems political adversaries based on last weekend's European election results.

It was speculated that Ms Williams was visiting to get advice on how to reach the dizzy heights of the fourth place and 11.5 per cent of the popular vote achieved by her Scottish colleagues from the fifth place with 10.7 per cent of the vote her party managed in Wales.

But on the bright side, maybe George Lyon might be prevailed upon to represent Welsh Lib Dems in Brussels as well as the Scottish ones.

David Maddox: Dealing with Britain's Nazis

You can understand why when Nick Griffin, the leader of the BNP (pictured top right), came to make his acceptance speech the other seven victorious MEPs for the North West of England as one turned their backs and vacated the stage.

No doubt none of them wanted to be pictured sharing a platform with a man who represents some of the more odious elements in British politics and the act was an understandable sign of their disgust and rejection of all that he stood for.

But, think on this. For the past few weeks the news agenda has been full of how the politicians in main parties in British have being doing their best to prove how unfit they are to govern. As each day has passed by we have seen how they have been helping each other to help themselves at the trough of public munificence in the MPs expenses scandal.

At the same time there has been a concerted campaign by these so called "establishment" parties to dissuade voters from turning to the BNP.

And the BNP has throughout portrayed itself as the victim of an establishment plot, the "clean" party on the outside of the corruption but on the side of the people which the main parties want to keep out.

It is of course all spin to cover its racist core, but when the main the representatives of the main parties walked off the stage together like they did in Manchester, they simply reinforced the image which the BNP has used to successfully gain a foothold in British politics.

Like it or not Griffin and his followers are now part of the democratic process and have been elected to office by the rules that govern our democracy. For that we can thank Tony Blair and his bizarre decision against the will of many of his Labour colleagues to accept the Liberal Democrats demands of introducing proportional representation.

There was no need for Mr Blair to do this, it was born out of New Labour's arrogance in the heady days of the late 1990s that people would always love them and that PR could guarantee a centre left Lib/ Lab government for generations to come with the Conservatives and Nationalists forever kept out. The test bed, Scotland, has since proven this assumption wrong with the SNP's famous victory in 2007, although arguably PR has worked North of the border to a point.

But with the European elections the critics have been proven right. Opponents of PR always warned that it would open the door to extremists and not just "cuddly" fringe groups like the Greens or more reasonable Nationalists like the SNP and Plaid Cymru. Now we have BNP MEPs and we can only be thankful that Blair was prevented from introducing PR for Westminster.

So given this new political reality the main parties would do better, perhaps, to clean up their own act and take on the BNP through proper debate instead of taking an approach that bolsters their pretence that they are the "victims of British politics" kept on the outside by a dysfunctional elite.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (16)

People are out voting today (some of them anyway) and it looks like it might be a better turnout than expected if the feedback I'm getting from the front is true.
Anyway, it offers us a quick look at the Scottish sample of the latest Yougov poll which is running today.

SNP: 33 Lab: 25 Con: 18 Lib Dems: 16 Others: 8

This would mean a distribution of 2 seats each for the SNP and Labour, and 1 each for the Tories and Lib Dems. This was the predictable result even before the expenses scandal, but it appears that events in Westminster have shored up the Lib Dem vote and the only question is if Labour's drops so low it only qualifies for one seat.
As the sample is 410, it is a little better than the usual but still about half the number needed to be considered properly scientific.
And, as it was a large sample, just for fun I ran it through Electoral Calculus to see what it would mean in a general election.

SNP: 28 (+22) Lab: 17 (-24) Con: 4 (+3) Lib Dems: 10 (-1)

OK it is a sample not a proper poll, but this analysis indicates a sea change that could reshape Scottish politics far more accurately than the six seats available in the European parliament can tell us.

David Maddox: The unlikely lads

With just a day to go to the European Parliament elections it seems that the talk is about how many seats will go to the fringe parties.

With the list PR system in place and the main parties at an all time low in public esteem because of the MPs' expenses scandal, this is probably an historic opportunity for one or two smaller parties to make a big impression.

Could it be that afterwards there may be some horse trading to see which of the smaller parties can co-operate with one another.

With this in mind, a Scotsman colleague of mine while waiting for a bus on the Royal Mile spotted the most unlikely of pairings.

Striding up the road jauntily were Scottish Socialist Colin Fox (top left), his SSP rosette still resolutely stuck to his lapel, and Scottish UKIP candidate Peter Adams (bottom right) proudly displaying his party's badge on his distinctive maroon blazer which he wears for broadcasts, which some say makes him look like a Lothians bus driver.

"Could we be about to see the formation of the most unlikely of coalitions?" asked my colleague. Nationalist from the right of politics and internationalist from the left, not in this world.

But at least it goes to show that despite wide differences in views political opponents can still get on and have a laugh together, something that is often forgotten in the screaming matches of Holyrood and Westminster.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (15) - Shouting the European odds

As the European election beckons on Thursday there may be one other group apart from political party members who take much of an interest - gamblers. With the expenses scandal hanging over the whole contest there are genuine fears of a record low turn out.

As mentioned in my blog earlier, this looks set to benefit the smaller parties and it appears that unfortunately the BNP are odds on to get a seat.

The BNP bet is among a series of interesting ones highlighted by Betfair listed below which also allows people to put their money where their mouth is regarding a potential Labour meltdown at the polls - 3-1 looks a reasonably decent bet for zero to nine seats in the current climate.

• European Elections BNP To Win A Seat? – 2-5 Yes, 12-5 No
• European Elections Total UKIP Seats – 5-6 Less Than 15 Seats, 11-10 More than 15 Seats
• European Elections Labour v UKIP – 5-4 Labour, UKIP, 9-2 Tie
• European Elections Total Labour Seats – 5-4 thirteen to fifteen seats, 11-5 ten to twelve seats, 3-1 zero to nine seats, 9-2 sixteen to seventeen seats, 11-2 eighteen or more seats
• European Elections Labour v Lib Dems – 5-6 Labour, 5-4 Lib Dems, 9-2 Tie
• Next General Election Overall Majority – 4-9 Conservative Majority, 14-5 No Overall Majority, 14-1 Labour Majority, 129-1 Any Other Party Majority

David Maddox: The Numbers Games (14) - Green shoots of recovery?

Could it be that despite all the worry of BNP candidates being returned to the European Parliament the actual main beneficiaries of the expenses scandal could be the Greens?

The party of recycling policies has put out a press release on the latest poll conducted by ComRes which seems to be very encouraging for them, especially in Scotland.

The UK figures of the poll of 1,009 people were:

Conservative: 24% Labour: 22% UKIP: 17% Green: 15% Lib Dem: 14% Others: 9%

This could increase the Green's seats from two (one in the South East and one in London) to 10, according to a party press release.

The Scottish sample was:

SNP: 29% Labour: 22% Green: 18% Conservative: 12% Lib Dem: 9% Others: 7%

Amazingly it puts the Greens in third place and would mean 2 seats each for the SNP and Labour, 1 each for the Greens and Tories and nothing for the poor Lib Dems.
One should remember though that the Greens are the party who predicted they would get 10 seats or more in the 2007 Holyrood election and hold the balance of power. Surprisingly, their eventual return of two seats actually meant they were at least half right because at times they have had the decisive votes, notably in voting down the budget.
But getting back to this poll, this Scottish sample represents a mere 89 people, which makes it not exactly the most scientific study of popular opinion in Scotland, although the way things are going not many more people may turn out to vote on Thursday.

David Maddox: Don't tell the candidate

Interesting update from campaign trail on East Dunbartonshire Lib Dem MP Jo Swinson's facebook. Nick Clegg was in Glasgow today to support the European election campaign and a Bishopbriggs council by-election where he met his MP (pictured) and the party's Scottish leader Tavish Scott among others.

Updating from her Twitter at 12.15pm Ms Swinson wrote: "welcoming Nick Clegg to Scotland today for European election campaigning."

But then an hour and 16 minutes later at 1.31pm the Lib Dem council by-election candidate Alistair McPhee posted this somewhat surprised message: "Where are you going campaigning?"

It seems that they did not think it was worth telling their candidate to be present.

David Maddox: PES off Socialism

It turns out that the Party of European Socialists (PES), the European Parliament's block of leftwing and centre left parties including Labour is going out of business after the election this June.
It is due to re-emerge as the Alliance of Social Democrats (ASD) when MEPs return to Brussels and Strasbourg after the election.
Why is this? Well it seems that none of the parties represented in that pan-European grouping are socialists any more.
This will come as no surprise to anybody who has watched Labour's march rightwards since the mid-1990s, the ditching of clause 4 and the red flag, and the birth of New Labour.
So we won't need the "real" socialists like Tommy Sheridan (Solidarity) or Colin Fox (Scottish Socialist Party) and their fellow Trots to say "I told you so."
Interestingly, as far as the election on June 4 goes, ASD would also be the natural home for the Scottish Nationalists, except Labour keeps vetoing their membership as one SNP spin doctor pointed out to me. Added to that the the leaders of PES/ ASD hope that the new arrangement will encourage the Greens to join them making them the largest group in the European Parliament. Currently the European Greens are part of the same small group as the SNP - The European Free Alliance (EFA).
And you would have thought that now they are all officially social democrats the group might be an appropriate home for Britain's Lib Dem MEPs, although currently they exist in the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe or ALDE which sounds like an appropriately European retailer of cheap goods.
But it all goes to show that essentially four of the five parties represented in Holyrood in European terms appear to be different flavours of the same thing.
Which, in main party terms, leaves us only with the Conservatives. They were part of the European People's Party (EPP) - the Centre Right coalition and biggest in the parliament - until David Cameron decided it was "too pro-European" and went off to form a fringe grouping called the European Democrats (ED).
Confused? Just wait until the election on June 4.

David Maddox: Time to get registered for the Euros

No not the football competitions. The European Parliament election will be with us soon and here's a sneak preview of the TV advert reminding people to register to vote in time.

David Maddox: Could it be that there will be an election soon?

This job ad has just been e-mailed to students at Edinburgh university. Interesting to note that no previous experience is required or for that matter political loyalty just a willingness to work the phones for £6 an hour.
It does beg the question over whether the Tories have enough volunteers for the forthcoming European election. I'm sure they'll be in touch shortly to say they have.

Here's the email and job advert:

I work for the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party and we are currently looking at employing part-time telephone canvassers. The hours and flexibility of the work would make it ideal for students [......]I hope you will be able to help. The details of the post are below but if you need any further information please do not hesitate to contact me.
Kind regards, Andrea Stephenson

Job Details
Position: Telephone canvasser
Based: Princes Street, Edinburgh
Pay: £6 per hour
Hours: 5pm - 8pm, Monday - Friday (operate on a time sheet system, so complete flexibility if people can not make days because of exams etc)
Experience: None required, full training will be given.