David Maddox: No place on the Tory front bench for Scotland

David Cameron and the Conservatives have been painfully aware of their lack of support north of the Border. In a radio interview recently Mr Cameron admitted his party would not win many seats, even though they are targeting 11.

For this reason Mr Cameron and his party (at least in Scotland) have been keen to promote the so-called "respect agenda" should they win power in the UK without much of a Scottish mandate.

The details of this are well known and often repeated - ministers regularly visiting, an annual PMQs with MSPs, post Pre-Budget and Budget briefings, the Scottish Secretary giving a verbal report to MSPs on the implications of the Queen's Speech etc.

But respect needs to be symbolic as well, which brings us on to the last Scottish questions in the Commons before the election. This was my second since transferring from Holyrood to Westminster and today, like the last time, it was noticeable that shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell (pictured) was shunted off the front bench to make way for other (more senior) colleagues for PMQs which followed immediately afterwards. today he was shifted before Scottish questions had even finished.

On both occasions poor Mr Mundell was forced to sit awkwardly on the steps between the back benches.

In comparison Jim Murphy remained on the Labour front bench throughout PMQs.

The sight of the frontbencher responsible for Scottish affairs being pushed aside so unceremoniously is not exactly the sort of respectful image for Scotland that the Tories have been so keen to claim is their own.

Chris Mackie: Won't get fooled again!

Hands up who fell for an April Fool gag this morning.

Aside from the humourous efforts in our national newspapers this morning (including The Scotsman - see if you can spot it, hoax fans) only one political party has come out to play on this, the day of japery and laughter.

The Tories put out an April Fool press release, backed by a rather impressive looking spoof website (http://www.dogw.co.uk/) advertising the entirely fictional Whitehall office - the Department of Government Waste.

Headed by the enigmatic minister Robin Ewe (geddit?), the DoGW was apparently set up in 1997 and has the mission statement:

“At the Department of Government Waste, spending your money is not just a privilege; it’s a duty. Our track record over the last 13 years is one of goal-realisation, spending-prioritisation, and waste-maximisation. And we will go on developing further waste streams if Labour win the next election. So if you want 5 more years of government waste, make sure you vote Labour on Polling Day.”

Today's press release purported to highlight a new report from the DoGW that, unlike many ministerial departments in the UK at present, its civil servants had hit all of their targets contained within their "challenging delivery agenda".
The department's achievements include - wait for it - "a systematic lack of competence"; "diseconomies stemming from over-reaching Government"; "challenging the belief that taxpayers’ money should be respected" and "pushing the boundaries of wasteful spending".

While the website and release do eventually help any sleepy hacks by revealing the entirely fictional nature of the department, the Tories do make the point that all of the examples of wasteful spending included within, are drawn from the last 13 years of government.

It's easy to groan about such lame gags as Robin Ewe, but as a way of pushing a political message its playful nature is certainly more engaging than some of the petty tribalism and points-scoring-at-all-costs we occasionally receive in our in-boxes.

David Maddox: Pizza and beer for the new political blockbuster

They may well be seen as boring men in grey suits talking about dull economics but it seems that the Chancellors' debate last night drew amazingly high viewing figures.
According to one of the Tory spindoctors 7 million people, more than one in ten people in the UK, tuned in to Channel Four to watch Messrs Darling, Osborne and Cable talk about the economy. The peak viewing according to figures they received was 2 million.
This compares to the normal Channel Four News viewing audience of 1 million and Dispatches audience of 1 million.
It would be a good omen for interest in the political process and the forthcoming election.
However, perhaps a more accurate assessment of the viewing audience appears in the Guardian Media Guide which reports that there were 1.6 million viewers, a 6.6 per cent share of the total UK TV audience.
Let's hope that the Conservative estimates on potential savings they can make are more accurate.
Whatever, the truth of the figures, it seems that the Tories at the party's London HQ at Millbank Tower decided to have a night of it with the debate and ordered in pizza and beer before settling down to watch the first political blockbuster of the election campaign.
The choice of cuisine is largely because there is a Pizza Express nearby, but perhaps it is a sign of how far David Cameron's party has come from the days of champagne and caviar, just as Labour is returning to its traditional beer and sandwiches union tucker.

David Maddox: Clarke takes centre stage

As a new boy down in Westminster I had never really appreciated until this morning how much the Conservatives need the presence of Ken Clarke, hush puppies and all, to give their top team substance until this morning.
The City raid by the three top men who hope to be running Britain's economy from about 7 May (Cameron, Osborne and Clarke, pictured above in slightly happier bigger poll lead times) represented a high risk strategy.
You can read more about it in tomorrow's Scotsman, but essentially the message is one of economic Armageddon if Labour win. It can't be ratcheted up much higher than that really.
However for this message to work you need somebody of experience and substance to deliver it. Neither Cameron nor Osborne have it yet and the warnings from them do not sound credible, which is why the floor was essentially thrown open to the former Chancellor for most of the presentation.
There is far more to Mr Clarke than the girth of his waste which suggests a long experience of business lunches. He sounds and looks like a man who knows what he is talking about, which given that he left the economy in a healthy state, is true. His two "senior" colleagues in comparison look gauche and in Osborne's case quite clearly in need of the Clarke endorsement he received.
The only problem with this strategy is that you cannot help but think the Tories might be further ahead in the polls if he was the one due to reside in 11, Downing Street or even the more famous address next door the Tories might still be further ahead in the polls.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (28) - What is the Cameron effect?

Fascinating Yougov poll around today with the Scottish sample a decent size at 562. It gives the first taste of political opinion since David Cameron's visit to Scotland for the Tory conference in Perth and the back end of last week.

Con 21 Lab 37 Lib Dem 15 SNP 21

According to Scotland Votes, the Scotsman's election calculation partner website, this provides the following results in a general election for Scotland (changes from 2005 in brackets) :

Con 2 (+1) Lab 39 (-2) Lib Dem 11 (no change) SNP 7 (+1)

Amazingly different polling results to 2005 but very little change with just Ochil and South Perthshire going from Labour to the SNP with Labour also losing Dumfries and Galloway to the Tories.
But the important thing is that makes a lot more results very close and could see many more seats changes hands.
This is shown by the different prediction from Electoral Calculus:

Con 4 (+3) Lab 39 (-2) Lib Dem 9 (-2) SNP 7 (+1)

It suggests that the Tories also gain Argyll and Bute and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk from the Lib Dems on top of the gain for them and the SNP predicted above.

But what this poll really shows is that the Tories are in play for all 11 targets, including ones held by the SNP such as Angus and Perth and North Perthshire. But it does not really take the Tories beyond the margins of support they have been polling in for a long time now, which leaves a question mark over the Cameron tartan effect of last week even though 21 per cent is at the high end of Conservative support in Scotland.
It does illustrate again how the boundaries work in favour of Labour and the Lib Dems and against the Conservatives and SNP.
But what it does is suggest that in Westminster terms at least the SNP vote is collapsing and that they are leaking support to Labour.
If this is true it is a victory for the Labour tacticians in Scotland who have relied on what they believe is an innate anti-Toriness in Scotland and are trying to squeeze the Nationalist vote by portraying a Westminster election as a competition between the two big parties.

David Maddox: The Numbers Game (27) - Marginal results

Two sets of polling figures have been produced this week which illustrate why general national polls are not altogether reliable sources electoral success.
The TNS-BMRB poll this week was not good news for the Conservatives in Scotland this week ahead of their annual Scottish conference in Perth and visit by David Cameron.
It had them stuck on 18 per cent for Westminster, a mere 13 per cent for Holyrood constituencies and and even lowlier 12 per cent for Holyrood party list votes.
None of these figures had budged a dot from the year before and suggested that the Cameron effect is negligible north of the Border.
The one crumb of comfort was that it left them above the Lib Dems in support, but it would still leave them with less seats.
According Scotland Votes the latest split on the poll Labour 42%, SNP 26%, Tories 18% and Lib Dems 12% leaves the following Scottish Westminster seat allocations (change from 2005 in brackets):

Lab: 42 (+2) SNP 7 (+1) Con: 3 (+2) Lib Dems 7 (-4)

The Lib Dems would lose Argyll and Bure, and Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk to the Tories, and East Dunbartonshire, and Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey to Labour. Meanwhile the SNP would gain Ochil and South Perthshire from Labour.

This is not exactly a massive breakthrough for the Conservatives, however, what they claim is that the real key to whether they are succeeding or not is in the polling for target seats and key marginals.
As most people know there are 11 target seats in Scotland for the Conservatives and yesterday they passed on figures of polling they had commissioned in one of those constituencies - Edinburgh South.
This is a threeway marginal which is made even more open by the announcement by its Labour MP Nigel Griffiths that he will not contest it again.
The Tories got an independent poller to ask a series of questions which came up with the following results:

This Labour Government at Westminster looks weak and divided.
Agree: 75% Disagree 19%

The SNP will never have the power or influence to represent your views in Westminster.
Agree 71% Disagree 24%

Do you think it is important to have a strong and stable government at Westminster to help Britain out of recession?
Agree 95% Disagree 3%

It is important to have Conservative MPs from Scotland in the heart of a Westminster government to defend and represent Scottish interests.
Agree 71% Disagree 24%

My local MP would have more influence if he or she was from the Party of government.
Agree 60% Disagree 27%

It is an interesting use of questions designed to eliminate opponents one by one, which will not doubt appear now in leaflets.
The answers say that people think Labour is weak, Nationalism is irrelevant in Westminster and it would be better to have an MP from the party of government which rules out the Lib Dems also have a chance of winning the seat. Logically, that just leaves the Tories as the only option.
Of course, had they simply asked people which party they will support then the result would probably not be so clear cut for the Conservatives.

Chris Mackie: Comment is free?

Last week, an exhibition of photographs was displayed in the Parliament detailing the suffering of the Palestinian people wrought, campaigners maintain, by an oppresive Israeli state.

Alongside some very graphic images of seriously injured children and information about the Scotland to Gaza Medical Appeal run by Edinburgh Direct Aid was a comments book, dutifully completed by various visitors passing the exhibition stand.

Most of the comments were sympathetic, focusing on the very real human tragedy on show. Others were critical of the UK government's response to the Palestinian question, but one in particular caught the eye:

“Israel must be (and will be inshallah) wiped off from the earth!” wrote Raza from Glasgow, closely echoing the sentiments of the former leader of Iran's Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, whose name was placed in brackets at the end of the quote.

The remarks (see above) have caused some consternation in Holyrood, and the Tories' Jackson Carlaw has now laid down a parliamentary motion calling on MSPs to join in condemnation of the sentiments ahead of Holocaust Memorial Day which takes place on 27 January.

The event's sponsor, Labour MSP Pauline McNeill has echoed his concerns and contacted the organisers of the exhibit drawing their attention to the matter.

But the comments and the response raise some interesting questions about free speech and how it should apply in settings such as this. Hosting such a politically sensitive and - in terms of the images on show - shocking exhibition was almost certain to provoke some form of reaction, especially when it concerned the diplomatic hot potato that is the Palestine/Israeli situation. So, in many ways we should perhaps not be surprised at the thoughts on show.

In fact, it could be argued that to only attract one anti-Israeli comment with such a provocative and emotive set of images was actually something of a triumph.

Many of my colleagues were unconvinced at the significance of this, arguing that the principles of free speech should be upheld. But seeing extremist comment laid bare in the heart of the Parliament, where dozens of MSPs, government ministers, press, civil servants and visitors pass every day is still disquieting, especially when you consider that "Raza" could well be a school pupil, given the number of kids that circulate the building each day and peruse the rolling schedule of exhibits.

Chris Mackie: A bluffer's guide

As the SNP education brief begins life in a post Fiona Hyslop world, the clear line coming from the opposition parties is that her demotion (ok, sacking) was an example of Alex Salmond blinking first in the latest stage of his Call-My-Bluff style of minority government.

That the opposition felt emboldened enough to stare him down in his latest threat to walk out was emblematic of the torrid seven days his government has experienced. A simmering dispute with local councils, a lukewarm response to the referendum plans and ongoing education travails all added up to make it a week to forget for Salmond and co.

It is certainly true that the reshuffle (alright, sacking) has emboldened the opposition benches - the number of gleeful Tories, LibDems and Labourites eating lunch in the Parliament's canteen yesterday was significantly higher than it usually is.

But Alex Salmond is nothing if not a canny operator and he may well have felt that his powder would be better left dry to help him through the forthcoming budget negotiations, especially as the political tide is flowing against him in the run up to Christmas.

Much more is at stake for the SNP in those deliberations, and to take his government to the brink for the sake of loyalty to a colleague would have left him with much less political capital to play with in the new session. Yes, his position is lessened by this climbdown, but to stake his government on an education secretary that was the very definition of "embattled" would have been denser than the 198 brochure used to herald the referendum Bill.

Expect to see more of this in the New Year, with or without the chairmanship or Robert Robinson.

Glasgow North East: Ruth Davidson: Giving people the skills to succeed

I’ve been out today on the campaign trail with Michael Gove MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Children, Schools & Families visiting the campus at North Glasgow College, in Springburn.

I feel that I know the College very well by now, it has played host to several events during the campaign, and it was great to be able to be able to show Michael around.

Earlier this week I wrote about Conservative plans to get Glasgow, and Britain, working again. However, there is no point in creating new jobs if we don’t give people the skills to do the jobs well.

What is really sad is that many schools force kids who are not academic, to study subjects they don’t enjoy and which they don't do very well in. They then leave school without the skills that they need to get a job and to succeed. Because of that they end up unable to get a job, and get trapped in a cycle of poverty.

Labour have done nothing about this. During the last 12 years they have created a benefits system which punishes people who want to work – with marginal tax rates of above 90%.

Labour’s failed system therefore discourages kids at school from learning the skills that they need, and then once they are adults they are discouraged from coming off benefits. And Labour claim that the Tories are the party who don’t care about poverty.

It can’t be said enough times, the best route out of poverty for people is through work. By getting a job people obviously get extra money. But working also builds up self-respect, a sense of community, and an involvement in the wider world which just doesn’t happen if you are unemployed.

That's why the Scottish Conservatives have talked about introducing more vocational training into schools in Scotland. And it is why places like North Glasgow College play such an important role in giving people the vocational skills they need to get jobs.

Michael said afterwards what a pleasure it was to visit the College. Both of us were very impressed with the staff and students who are working hard to acquire the skills needed for the world of work. We need to encourage more people to come here and learn these skills. That means dealing with Labour’s pernicious benefits system, and it means creating jobs. Only the Conservatives have the policies and ideas that can make that happen.

Glasgow North East, Conservatives: Getting Glasgow Back to Work

Perhaps the biggest theme of the campaign has been how many people have come to me worried about Labour’s jobs crisis. There are 4,212 people in the constituency who have to claim unemployment benefit. That’s up nearly a thousand (989) in just a year and gives Glasgow North East the highest claimant rate in Scotland. That’s Labour’s legacy to Glasgow, unemployment and a jobs crisis.

Labour’s record in Glasgow shows a worrying complacency. Labour closed one Job Centre in Glasgow North East and replaced much of the face-to-face contact in the other with a mere telephone helpline. That isn’t going to help people get jobs. Labour have claimed in this by-election that they care about getting people back into work – but their actions in government don’t back that up. Broken promises and a broken economy, that’s all we get from Labour.

The Conservatives are different. We want to help people get into work because we realise how important jobs are for people. The Conservatives have the policies to bring new jobs, help the unemployed retrain, and tackle Labour’s debt mountain that threatens to hamper investment.

So we will provide tax breaks for new companies who provide new jobs. We will free up credit to help businesses. And we have a radical welfare plan that will help people who are out of work to get back into employment by providing the individual support they need, as well as providing incentives for providers who can help those in the most difficult circumstances get back into work.

This sounds like a tough message – as if we are forcing people to work. But in reality there is nothing compassionate about the current situation where people are left isolated outside society. We need to integrate people into work, support them, and help them. Most people don’t want to be on benefits, but the current system forces them there and then abandons them. That’s not progressive, and it’s not what the people of Glasgow North East need.

These are the Conservative plans to get Glasgow working again. But the only way that can happen is if you vote for the Conservatives at this by-election, and at the upcoming General Election. Only Labour or the Conservatives can become the next Government, and therefore the choice is between this failing Labour Government, or a fresh government, with real ideas to tackle the jobs crisis and recession, led by David Cameron.

Glasgow North East: Ruth Davidson, Conservative: Trust in Politics

Well done the Steamie for coming up with this idea. I’ve been blogging on this campaign for sometime and I’m glad now the other candidates won’t be able to run away when I ask them a question!

During the five months that this campaign has been running it has become clear that the issues in Glasgow North East are not that different from those across Britain. People are worried about their jobs, worried about Labour's recession, worried about public services, and worried about crime.

MP's from all parties have betrayed the trust that the public had placed in them. That is why David Cameron apologised as soon as the details of MP's expenses claims came out, because it was wrong and the people of Britain deserved an apology. It was then that he said he wanted a new type of politics - which was when I decided I should put myself forward as a candidate. I am not a career politician, but I do believe that politics needs new people to get involved, get stuck in, and try and change things for the better. As candidates we all need to work to restore the public’s trust in politics.

That is why the very first thing I did following selection was to promise to run a clean campaign - which I invited all the other candidates to join. I have kept to that - the Conservatives won’t use personal attacks in order to get votes. That is why I have pledged to be open about my expenses if elected. Simple things, not exploiting expenses, discussing the issues not the personalities, but I think that they help people to believe I will keep my word if elected.

David Cameron and the Conservative Party believe the same thing. That is why we have been honest about the problems with the public finances. Instead of pretending nothing needed done, the Conservatives have told the truth that there will have to be savings in Government spending. We don't want to reduce spending, but we have to be realistic and tell people the harsh truth that Labour have spent all the money – and it is up to the next Government to repair the damage.

That’s why in the Scottish Parliament we have identified ¼ billion pounds worth of savings. Take Scottish Water out of public ownership, stop this nonsense of free prescriptions and free school meals for people who can afford to pay. Some things in life are not free – we have to accept that, especially in this current climate.

This election is about which party can bring the change that is needed to Glasgow North East, and to Britain. The Conservatives have the policies that will create jobs, repair the public finances, and help to fix our broken society. Most of all, we are the party that will be open and honest with the public – that’s what is needed to help rebuild trust in politics.

David Maddox: How not to sum up your candidate's chances

When the Conservatives launched their campaign for Glasgow North East today it was perhaps not a good idea to get their candidate, former BBC journalist Ruth Davidson, under a sign marked "Turkey".
Then again it was not a great plan to put her under a sign marked "you deserve a holiday" either. This may reflect Ms Davidson's 100/1 chances according to the bookies, behind John Smeaton who may apparently not even stand.
Not sure if it was former STV star cum spindoctor Michael Crow's finest hour.
They will no doubt be hoping there is no talk of turkeys when David Cameron visits tomorrow.

Eddie Barnes: Battle of the Booze

The Tories have announced their plans for a booze crackdown here in Manchester today. They aim to substantially increase the price of lager, cider and alco-pops through a new tax.

As tax is reserved, the plans will apply in Scotland where, as has been well publicised, the SNP administration is planning to introduce its own minimum pricing policy. This would mean that cheap high-strength drinks - lager, cider, and alcopops for example - would have a price floor under which they could not be sold.

But if the Tory plan might end up increasing the price of those drinks above that floor anyway, making the minimum pricing scheme superfluous, on all but cut-price spirits.

Which makes me wonder whether the entire SNP alcohol strategy should now be re-named as the "Glen's Vodka price increase (Scotland) Act" and have done with it.

Chris Mackie: Tories and Nationalists get cosy

There is some thoughtful stuff from former Scotsman hack Fraser Nelson over at the Spectator website. As well as some barbs directed at the SNP for its handling of the Lockerbie Bomber release and a fascinating snippet about Alex Salmond meeting Gideon, er sorry, George Osborne on an flight between London and Edinburgh, he throws up some interesting politics surrounding the relationship between the UK Conservatives and the SNP.

His contention is the likely Conservative general election victory could offer the Nationalists a route to financial independence by playing on English Tory Party unease about the level of public subsidy offered to Scotland. www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/the-week/5275838/part_4/politics.thtml

Here is the key section: "For some time, nationalists in Westminster have been quietly cultivating Tories who are known to resent the level of subsidy sent to Scotland (public spending per head is still 24 per cent higher than south of the border). They propose a new settlement. Why not set Scotland’s budget at whatever Scotland raises in tax? This is, after all, how the Basque country deals with Spain. Several Tories, including many on the front bench, are interested."

The move would certainly be popular among the core Conservative support in England, but does Cameron really have the stomach to abandon the strictly unionist line he has been careful to maintain during his leadership? Unionist Tories in Scotland may well begin to think that they have been sold out by their leadership, although the move might well play well to some of the small "c" conservative sections of the SNP support, so it could be a case of electoral swings and roundabouts.

Whatever happens, it will be fascinating to see the relationship between Eck and Dave emerge in the event of a Conservative victory next year.

David Maddox: Attack of the clones

There is a rumour going around that the Tories have a secret factory which churns out by-election candidates. The evidence appears to be with these pictures of Ruth Davidson, the former BBC journalist just selected to fight Glasgow North-east, and Chloe Smith, who just won Norwich North for the Tories.

I'm still not entirely sure which is which.

David Maddox: When words aren't necessary

The Tories' finance spokesman Derek Brownlee has in recent times developed a reputation for being one of the best speakers and debaters in Holyrood. That was until his colleague Jamie McGrigor gave an interesting running commentary on his speech last week.
It wasn't quite clear whether Mr McGrigor, well known for his risque party songs and putting tartan into law, was protesting over his party's endless calls for a general election or just found Mr Brownlee excruciating to listen to.
Whatever the answer, it may take Mr Brownlee a while to recover his reputation from this recording below.

David Maddox: A funny thing happened on the way to the job centre...

Strange indeed. Peter Duncan (pictured right), the deposed and would-be Conservative MP for Dumfries and Galloway, ran into a spot of bother whilst he was trying to make a local job centre a useful means of getting his old job in Westminster back.
In his recent In Touch leaflet Mr Duncan made great play about how job centres were being shut and included a picture of himself outside the JobCentre in Stranraer with a young woman who he said was "a jobseeker" suggesting the picture was taken quite recently.
Except she was not a jobseeker and the picture was five years old.
Kate Nassar, the young woman in question, in fact turned out to be a local teacher, but had been employed by Mr Duncan in 2004 when the picture apparently was taken.
"It really is ridiculous," Mrs Nassar told her local paper. "At a time of economic instability it really makes you wonder whether they are taking the issue seriously. Surely they should be speaking to people genuinely affected by the recession.

"Instead they used a five year old picture of me and I wasn't even unemployed then - I was working for Peter!"

Mr Duncan has reportedly declined to apologise but has promised that the picture will not be used again.

He said: "There are clearly a lot of unemployed people in contact with me and angry with the current economic situation and I will give them the opportunity to be involved in the future."

The offending leaflet can be found on page 2 of this link: Duncan%20leaflet.pdf

But never mind at least his Conservative colleagues in Holyrood are on the ball.... Or maybe not.

This week Nanette Milne (pictured left), the party's environment spokeswoman, the Scottish Government's efforts to reduce waste, even though the Tories tried to amend deposit and return out of the Climate Change Bill.

Then she praised the a recycling company Wood Works for doing good stuff on waste, except they ceased trading in June last year because of cuts in (Scottish) government funding. Maybe her researcher (Miles Briggs) is spending too much time trying to win Menzies Campbell's seat in North East Fife.

David Maddox: Clearing out the dead wood

It seems that the expenses saga, at least for the Tories, has become a convenient excuse to break the vice like grip that a group of the old buffers had on safe seats.

Douglas Hogg and his moat is a classic example while this morning's victim Sir Peter Viggers (pictured) and his £2,000 duck house and massive gardening bill is another.

Sir Peter is the MP for Gosport and a former banker who is not short of a bob or two. I knew him well when I was covering politics in Portsmouth and found him a very decent and amiable chap.

However, his hopes of a high flying political career ended in the 1980s when Margaret Thatcher decided he was too wet for her tastes and since then he has been trying to find a role for himself on the back benches.

His one last chance to make a name for himself was when he ran Douglas Hurd's appallingly hopeless leadership campaign a then that was it.

It apparently took just two minutes for David Cameron to tell poor old Viggers that his career as an MP was over.

But it is interesting those without a future like Viggers and Hogg are given short shrift while Alan Duncan who is part of the front bench team was able to get away with a lame apology for his £7,000 of gardening expenses and a cheque returning the money.

Gosport (majority: 5,730) like Hogg's Sleaford and North Hykeham seat (majority: 12,705) are pretty safe ones.

True the Totnes seat of Anthony Steen, the third to get the boot, is just 1,947, but in the present political climate that's relatively safe.

It means that young hopefuls with a future can break into safe seats and build a career and the hasbeens and neverwases are cleared out. I'm told there will be a much bigger clearout to come.

One young Tory said to me over lunch: "This is basically the best time to be a young Conservative and would-be candidate looking for a seat for generations."

David Maddox: The numbers game (11) - Scottish Tory conference special

According to one paper this morning Ladbrokes are only offering 3/1 on the Tories getting seven or more seats in Scotland. The point was alluded to by Annabel Goldie in her longest day speech (it went on a bit, like the famous film) yesterday as proof that the party is on the way back.
Regular readers of the Numbers Game blogs on the Steamie will know that the Electoral Calculus predictions based on current polls, which do not even properly account for local loyalties, has the Tories getting seven seats on the most generous interpretations of the polls. So this is one of those occasions that it is better to hold on to your money.
However, it might be worth getting odds on five seats or more the way things are going, assuming that the SNP are not the only ones to benefit from a Labour collapse North of the border.

David Maddox: Tory conference - No longer the McBridesmaid

The Tories wheeled out two "celebrity" speakers this morning. One was the knife crime campaigner John Muir, the father of Damian who was brutally murdered by a knife wielding thug in 2007, who had come to endorse the Tories' new policy of two year minimum sentences for people caught carrying knives.
Before that though was their "controversial" new convert, the leading QC Paul McBride (pictured right).
Controversial because they claimed he joined the Tories three weeks ago and abandoned Labour to do so.
Labour have gone to great lengths to say: "Paul who?" And point out he was not a member at the time and apparently never seen by them.
Lord George Foulkes, First Lord of the Twittery etc, even wrote to the Scotsman ,to question Mr McBride's former Labour credentials. The Baron of Cumnock also asked a question in parliament to check if Mr McBride had declared himself a Labour supporter in his role as a member of the Legal Board, something he would have been required to do if he was a party member or active supporter in the last five years. He had not.
However, Mr McBride maintains he was a Labour supporter for most of his adult life, let his membership lapse in the late 1990s, but later attended fundraising events until recently.
Mr McBride has been described as arrogant by some in Labour in recent days, his e-mail address apparently includes the words topQC, but seeing him this morning you can see why Labour are so wound up about his "defection" and the Tories are gloating about it.
McBride is the sort of bright, sharp dressed, talented individual who flocked to Labour in the early years of Blair, but who can see that the bright future is now with Cameron and the Tories.

David Maddox: Could it be that there will be an election soon?

This job ad has just been e-mailed to students at Edinburgh university. Interesting to note that no previous experience is required or for that matter political loyalty just a willingness to work the phones for £6 an hour.
It does beg the question over whether the Tories have enough volunteers for the forthcoming European election. I'm sure they'll be in touch shortly to say they have.

Here's the email and job advert:

I work for the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party and we are currently looking at employing part-time telephone canvassers. The hours and flexibility of the work would make it ideal for students [......]I hope you will be able to help. The details of the post are below but if you need any further information please do not hesitate to contact me.
Kind regards, Andrea Stephenson

Job Details
Position: Telephone canvasser
Based: Princes Street, Edinburgh
Pay: £6 per hour
Hours: 5pm - 8pm, Monday - Friday (operate on a time sheet system, so complete flexibility if people can not make days because of exams etc)
Experience: None required, full training will be given.

David Maddox: SAS candidate takes on Ming the Merciless (aka Patsy versus Pompous Ass)

Sir Menzies Campbell (top left), the former UK Liberal Democrat leader, has had a tough time this week after being described as a "pompous ass" and "Ming the Meaningless" by his old opponent, Alex Salmond, the First Minister. But, while he laughed off Mr Salmond's outburst, it seems that the former Olympic athlete may be having to look over his shoulder at a threat from some energetic youth.

The "energetic youth" in question is the Tory North East Fife candidate Mile Briggs (pictured right with Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie), a party researcher in Holyrood, who today self-styled himself as being an SAS candidate. This might be necessary considering that his opponent's nickname is Ming the Merciless.

The SAS allusion came with his proposed charity abseil off the Forth Rail Bridge (pictured left in Colin Ruffell's famous painting) to raise money for the RNLI.

However, when I bumped in to him earlier this morning buying a coffee it was his relative popularity to the veteran Lib Dem that he was boasting about.

When on Friday Sir Menzies gave his address to the Lib Dem conference on international affairs - the one where he criticised Mr Salmond's international grandstanding - he attracted about 72 delegates.

On Saturday, Mr Briggs tells me, that over 300 people turned up to one of his fundraising constituency coffee mornings in Newburgh, more than four times Sir Menzie's audience.

However, that said, Mr Briggs needs to overturn a majority of 12,571.

And the obvious put down for the young Tory - one of a legion of Patsies (politically ambitious 20 somethings) employed by political parties in Holyrood - might be Sir Menzie's current favourite Gordon Brown quote, the one he used about Mr Salmond and foreign affairs - "It's no time for a novice."

David Maddox: So who is the minister for knives?

The Scottish Government has put out a press release on a knife crime summit this morning which has raised a few eyebrows.
The content is straight forward enough and the issue is of great importance, talking about the 'No Knives Better Lives' £500,000 initiative to help young people and reduce knife crime.
But it is the minister quoted in the press release - Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill (pictured) - which has rather exposed the SNP.
Not so long ago on January 23 there was another knife crime conference in Holyrood which was set up by the scottish Parliament's Petition Committee in response to a petition by John Muir, 69, whose son Damian was murdered by a knife wielding thug 18 months ago.
But instead of going to this high profile conference, Mr MacAskill decided he would prefer to go on a jolly to Canada to attend some Burns suppers, including one in the famous CN Tower in Toronto.
At the time oppositon parties called for his head, but the party spin doctors on the government payroll were adamant that he was not responsible for knife crime and instead the correct minister - Fergus Ewing, the Minister for Community Safety, attended.
One spin doctor said to me: "These attacks are just complete nonsense. Fergus Ewing has always been the minister taking a lead on knife crime, not Kenny MacAskill."
Not long after the Conservatives did a bit of research on who really was taking the lead on knives. This showed that between them Fergus Ewing and Kenny MacAskill had given 25 written answers dealing with knife crime up to January 23. Of these, 17 (68 per cent) were answered by Mr MacAskill.
And, at that time, of the two Scottish Government press releases available on its website that deal with knife crime, both were issued by Mr MacAskill.
And now it looks like Mr MacAskill is "taking the lead" again.
So is the truth about the incident in January simply that a jolly to Canada was a higher priority to him than knife crime? It will be interesting to see what response we get.

David Maddox: The numbers game (3) - Tory response

It seems that the one guaranteed way to wind up people and get comments is to run pieces on polls. In response to the briefing below from the SNP on the recent Yougov poll, the Tories have quickly responded (nice to know they are reading the Steamie), to point out that the Presiding Officer, Alex Fergusson (pictured), may not be in such danger as the numbers suggest.
"Let's not forget that, going into the 2007 elections, Alex Fergusson was defending a majority of just 99 against the SNP. Galloway & Upper Nithsdale (GUN) was their number one target seat," said the Tory spindoctor. "And in a year where the SNP made significant advances…Alex (Fergusson) increased his majority to 3,333! National trends don't always take into account local politics and personal popularity.
"Interestingly, to back up what I'm saying, did you know that the SNP's top three target seats in 2007 were GUN, Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, and Tweeddale, Ettrickdale & Lauderdale. Of those three, how many did they win? None. Exactly ;-)"
As I may have mentioned before, it all goes to show the only reliable poll is the one on election day.

David Maddox: The numbers game (3)

The Yougov poll mentioned in Saturday's posting had some interesting results, as you may have seen in a Sunday publication.

Despite apparently gaining in popularity from the 2007 election, though, on the basis of this poll in a Holyrood election the SNP would stay on their current 47 seats with Labour (44, -2), Lib Dem (13, -3), and Independent (0, -1) losses being taken up by the Tories (18, +1), Greens (5, +3) and Scottish Socialist Party (2, +2).

But, a briefing I have received from a senior SNP strategist shows that gains in pure numbers does not tell the whole picture. What is more important, as far as he and his colleagues are concerned, for long term success is the significant gain of nine constituency of first past the post (FPTP) seats.

This would see defeats for some big names - Labour's finance spokesman Andy Kerr (pictured left, in a different sort of tough race) in East Kilbride along with former Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen in Aberdeen South would both go. Even the poor Presiding Officer, Alex Fergusson, would be swept away in Galloway & Upper Nithsdale.

Other SNP gains would be: Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross; Ross, Skye and Inverness West; Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale; Aberdeen Central; Airdrie & Shotts; and Linlithgow.

As the senior SNP strategist explained: "My point would be that it’s better to win FPTP seats than list seats (although obviously good to win both!) – constituency MSPs are better able to dig in, build the base, etc.
"2003 was interesting – we fell back overall but won more FPTP seats than in 1999 – which was a healthy pointer to the future. And of course we won a pile of FPTP seats in 2007.

"Basically, the SNP used to be good at winning votes, and not good at winning seats (eg. the ’92 election). Now we are good at both – which in turn bodes well for the next Westminster election."

David Maddox: Hmmmm.... Is a pattern emerging here?

After the spat continues about the Tory leaflet being handed out at Waverley Station this morning accusing Labour of destroying public services etc by leading the defeat of the budget yesterday (see my colleague Hamish Macdonell's posting's earlier today), and Labour's claim that it was all lies, a couple more press releases have come out from the true blues.
The first was entitled: Labour deprives forestry of £3.5m
The second had the equally subtle heading: Labour leads £217.5m transport budget cut
The two releases refer to Labour's two subject debates today in Holyrood. One suspects that every subject they now raise will provoke similar press releases given the potential consequences of their no vote.
At lunch time one Labour spin doctor wryly noted to me: "I don't know if Alex Salmond has put the SNP on an election footing, but the Tories are certainly now on a Westminster election footing."

David Maddox: Budget - Tomorrow is another day

Well after all the excitement of this truly extraordinary and historic day in Holyrood I'm going to sign off. You can read the in depth analysis and reports in tomorrow's Scotsman.

But needless to say the blame game has already started. Labour have blamed the SNP, the Tories have blamed Labour, the Lib Dems have blamed the SNP, and the SNP have blamed everyone except the Tories and themselves. Funnily enough, anybody who is not in a political party has blamed the Greens.


One interesting point is that somehow, even though their thinking is often different, the Lib Dems have still always voted the same way in Holyrood as Labour on the budget every year since the parliament was reconvened. More and more they look like an extention of Scottish Labour to those not well versed in the machinations of Holyrood, which is reflected in the declining polling ratings north of the border, which in some cases have dipped into single figures.


As one final note, it is clear that the SNP smelt disaster early in the afternoon and were resorting to pretty desperate measures.
This high priority e-mail was sent out by one of their backbenchers Christina McKelvie (pictured) at 2.51pm to her public sector trade union colleagues calling on them to lobby Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray:

I am writing about this afternoon's budget debate in the Scottish Parliament. The implications for Scotland if the Budget Bill is not passed are serious. Section 6 of the 2008 Budget Act would be the legislation which governs such an eventuality. That section can be found here - http://www.oqps.gov.uk/legislation/acts/acts2008/asp_20080002_en_3 In short, it means that the Scottish Government would only be allowed to release, in any calendar month, one twelfth of last year's budget or the amount paid out of the Consolidated Fund for the corresponding month last year. There is no allowance made for inflation. This would leave a shortfall of some £1.8 billion or £150m per month and leave the Scottish Government without the flexibility to spend money to protect jobs and investment.
As you will appreciate, such a situation would jeopardise public sector pay deals; increased funding for the NHS; increases to the local government settlement which would affect the ability of those local authorities to freeze council tax again this year; funding to cut business rates for small businesses; and accelerated capital spending in the region of £230 million. With the economy struggling as it is at the moment, I'm sure you will agree with me that Scotland could ill-afford such a cut in public spending this year. Cuts on that scale would not only affect the pay of public sector workers, they would adversely affect public services and would prevent the Scottish Government the opportunity to ensure that Council Tax stays frozen this year and that prescription charges come down - costs which fall heaviest on poorer members of society.
Can I urge you, therefore, to contact MSPs who you may know and urge them to support the budget this afternoon. In particular I would urge you to contact Labour's Leader in the Scottish Parliament, Iain Gray MSP, and urge him to take his party with him and vote to protect Scotland 's public spending this afternoon.
Yours,
Christina McKelvie MSP

David Maddox: Hot from John Swinney's budget speech

The Finance Secretary has offered £22 million in the first year to start off the Green's insulation scheme. That should be the deal clincher, double the SNP's original offer, but only a fifth of the Greens' original demand, nevertheless a fantastic achievement for a party with just two MSPs.
Even more significantly he has given the Tories the credit for a new town centre regeneration fund of £60 million for 2009/10, three times what the Tories were asking for and even more than the £50 million demanded by Labour.
And finally he has agreed to be flexible over where money for new affordable homes will go to bring Independent MSP Margo MacDonald on board. She wants more cash for Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Assuming this is all enough then that will equate to 66 votes for the budget and 62 against. Looks like Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been marginalised again.

David Maddox: Budget goading

The verb to goad comes from the word for a big stick used to prod cattle in a certain direction and whilst the Tories may not care which direction their Lib Dem opponents go they have certainly decided to bring out a big stick to beat with them with over their position on the budget.
For those of you who need reminding, the Lib Dems have not exactly been negotiating much over the budget because they want a 2p cut in income tax using the Scottish Parliament's tax varying powers. The SNP oppose this because it would take £800 million from the Scottish budget.
Now you might expect a party that wants to reduce public spending by so much to not have a wishlist for extra spending. You would be wrong, claim the Tories. They have published a 91 item wishlist worth £8.3 billion which the Lib Dems have put their names to since Tavish Scott became leader in September. That's tenfold the savings they need for their tax cut.
The Lavish Tavish List includes £1 billion for the income tax cut, £1.8 billion for having a bigger new Forth Bridge, £330 million for extending paternity leave, £300 million on new dentists. The list really goes on and on.
The Lib Dems have of course hit back, calling it the Tories' "dodgy dossier"and say it is riddled with errors. A spokesman also suggested that it was a diversionary tactic away from the fact that the Tories have appeared to be asking for so little for them to support the SNP's budget.
The interesting point to this is that it very much sums up the supporting act in the two bouts that are going on in Holyrood. The headline act is the battle to be number 1 between Labour and the Nats, while the Lib Dems and Tories are locked in the battle to be number 3.
It's all a far cry from when the Tories were the biggest party in Scotland decades ago and the more recent pre-2007 election claim by the Lib Dems that they could be the biggest party in Holyrood.
If last year's by-elections are to be taken as evidence it is a battle the Tories are winning by dint of not being completely squeezed out by the two big parties and also their extra Holyrood seat from the 2007 election.
The two are also positioning themselves as the party of tax cuts for the 2011 Holyrood election. The Lib Dems want this to fall in income tax, the Tories in council tax.
All this matters, of course, because in a parliament of minorities even the Greens two MSPs can hold sway.
The first budget vote is tomorrow (Wednesday), but expect far more fun and games by the time the final vote takes place on January 28.

David Maddox: Bad trains or Tory troubles?

There was a bit of mischevious speculation this morning amongst the Scottish political press pack at what might be irking Annabel Goldie.
The face of the Tories' Scottish leader looked like thunder when she came into a briefing at the Eric Liddell Centre on Holy Corner in Morningside on the economy chaired by Chris Grayling, the party's Shadow Cabinet spokesman work and pensions.
The top table - Ms Goldie, Mr Grayling and Shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell - had come in 15 minutes late and it was noticeable that Ms Goldie was not her normal cheery self and barely looked at Mr Grayling. Afterwards the two left separately to go to the same private engagement.
Ms Goldie's aides told me that she was simply frustrated at being late and annoyed with the poor train service which was apparently the cause of her tardiness.
But the talk in the press pack was that Mr Grayling had brought a message from David Cameron that Ms Goldie and the Scottish Conservatives needed to up their game and given a minimum number of seats to win in the next general election or face the consequences.
If that is true, it's probably a little unfair on Ms Goldie who has seen her party make steady progress from a very poor position against a background of historic Scottish antipathy towards the Tories through the use of niche issues on justice and business support. However, it is not nearly as spectacular as some would like to see and in comparison to the Tory recovery in other parts of the UK it looks very slow indeed.
Needless to say Ms Goldie was able to talk through whatever irksome problems she had this morning with Mr Mundell at her favourite haunt which, as regular readers of Alba will know, is the Pizza Express opposite the Scotsman.

Hamish Macdonell - New spin doctors

TALK of the Steamie at Holyrood today is that the Tories have a new Scottish spin doctor.
STV's Mike Crow has gone over to the "dark side" as its known in media circles, by joining the world of PR and spin.
He is to become the Scottish Conservatives Director of Strategy and Communications: quite a job title, quite a job and quite some move for one of the country's longest-serving political correspondents.
ends

David Maddox: Tories credit crunched

It appears that no corner of our society is now immune to the credit crunch (with perhaps the exception of the army in deference to my colleague Gerri's blog). According to ConservativeHome, it seems that even the Conservatives are having to lay off between 16 and 24 staff at their London HQ. There will also be a pay and recruitment freeze.
It sounds like the Tories are suffering the same fate as other organisations, particularly charities, which rely heavily on donations. In times of belt tightening donations are far less forthcoming.
Ramsay Jones, the Conservative's chief Scottish spindoctor has just been in and told me that the six and a half Scottish staff are all safe.