David Maddox: The Numbers Game (29) - Bookies' Balls up

As regular readers may know, The Steamie has at times tried to help you add a few pounds to your pockets by offering a tip on the political betting front with mixed success.
Those of you who put money on Iain Gray to become Labour leader may appreciate The Steamie's advice, while those who went for Ann Widdicombe to be Speaker may not.
But we've had some interesting odds regarding who will be the next Chancellor to give a Budget from our old friends at Ladbrokes. Please note these odds are ahead of tonight's debate and may change at 9.10pm, I'm reliably informed.

George Osborne 2/5 (fav)
Alistair Darling 5/1
Ed Balls 10/1
Vince Cable 16/1
Ken Clarke 16/1
Philip Hammond 20/1
Gordon Brown 100/1

So tip of the day would be to put your money on Balls.
With Labour closing the gap there is now a decent chance it will be the biggest party and may even have a majority.
If that were to happen Gordon Brown has already made it clear that he wants to replace Alistair Darling with Ed Balls, despite the fact that many people now believe the current Chancellor is the last remaining minister with any credibility and certainly could claim to have won an election for Labour.

This also applies to the newly published odds on the next Labour leader with the very same Ed Balls at 14/1. Again this tip is based on the fact that the Brownites would support him against the Blairites' David Milliband (the 5/2 favourite). He would also probably have the backing of the major unions including the dreaded Unite.

I'm not just saying this because he is a fellow Norwich City fan, but while Ed Balls is reportedly incredibly unpopular in the Commons he has enough powerful supporters and hangers on to make both sets of odds from Ladbrokes look pretty generous.

Perhaps the clever bet is to actually back Ed Balls on both. Whilst it is extremely unlikely but not impossible to clean up on both it makes a decent each way bet on Mr Balls' ultimate fate based on whether Labour win or lose the election.

Here are the rest of the runners and riders to replace Gordon Brown as Labour leader:

David Miliband 5/2
Ed Miliband 5/1
Alan Johnson 6/1
Harriet Harman 8/1
Peter Mandelson 8/1
Alistair Darling 12/1
Ed Balls 14/1
Jon Cruddas 14/1
Jack Straw 25/1
John Denham 25/1
Andy Burnham 25/1
Hilary Benn 33/1
Yvette Cooper 33/1
Shaun Woodward 50/1
Jim Murphy 50/1
Douglas Alexander 66/1
Peter Hain 66/1
John McDonnell 66/1
Liam Byrne 66/1
Hazel Blears 100/1
Tony Blair 100/1
Alastair Campbell 500/1
Cherie Blair 500/1

David Maddox: Hell of a week

In a week where one leading Scottish politician was complaining about the forces of hell being unleashed on him, while another was apparently trying to suggest that he was next to God (or was that God next to him?) it turns out that a third is actually going try to take on the fiery inferno herself.

But whilst Chancellor Alistair Darling's motive may have been revenge on the Prime Minister and Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy was seemingly hoping to gain some electoral advantage, SNP MSP Christina McKelvie's (pictured top right) stunt is for charity.

Whilst many politicians would walk on hot coals to get elected later this year, Ms McKelvie is to literally do that on 12 March to raise money for motor neurone disease, a condition her father suffered from.

Anybody wishing to sponsor her should go to this link.

*I have just been reminded that this is not Ms McKelvie's first experience of playing with fire. She once admitted to having an interesting tattoo of a dragon.

Gerri Peev: Paws for the passing of Sybil

Spare a thought for the former Chief Mouser of Downing Street. Chancellor Alistair Darling's cat Sybil died in London yesterday after a short illness.

The moggie briefly lived at Number 11, following on from the Number 1o cat Humphrey, who was evicted by Cherie Blair.

She spent many days commuting between Edinburgh and London, but the journey finally took its toll on ageing Sybil and she stayed with friends of the Darlings in her final days.

Sybil never quite settled in Downing Street. Perhaps it was the neighbours...

Gerri Peev: Darling's dark comedy

WHO said Alistair Darling did not have a gift for comedy? Forget his forecasts, I am talking about his response to a Times article about what cheers politicians up.
The Chancellor replied: "Yes Minister never fails to make me laugh. Although it's less comedy, more documentary. Oh, and black humour, it's kept us going over the last two years at the Treasury."
Here's another joke for his routine: Did you hear the one about the economy returning to growth by the end of this year?

David Maddox: Banking on tonight's game

Scotland and Iceland today take each other on in what may still be a crucial group 9 World Cup qualifier at Hampden.
But in reality this is a battle of the banking basement as the previous competitors for the “Best Small Country in Financial Services” now contest for "the biggest bailout."

Scotland, with its proud 300 plus year tradition as sound bankers, and Iceland, the Johnny come latelies of the banking world who turned small financial advice services into major banks in a decade, both ended up on the same scrapheap with their reputations in tatters.
So on April 1, the day we celebrate fools, it seems appropriate to assemble two world beating teams of politicians and bankers from the two countries who played their part in the dramatic matches of the last few months.

This is after all a grudge match for the Icelanders after Gordon Brown impounded their assets when their banks collapsed.

Scotland

Sponsor: The British taxpayer

Home ground: Hamstrung

Goalkeeper: Gordon Brown - Also captain and manager because he doesn't want anybody else to be in charge. Keeps annoying his team mates by referring to them as Team GB and going on about relocating to London in 2012. Perfect candidate for a keeper because he reckons he saved the world, although most people don't even think he can save himself.

Left back: Sir Peter Burt – As the creator of the apparently formidable HBOS team the veteran performer found he was not allowed to return to head the team sheet when it was sold off.

Right back (behind GB): Alistair Darling - Keeps going off to the corner flag and muttering about the worst season since the 1930s. Only useful for bringing on the half time oranges to feed the hungry bankers.

Centre back: Sir James Crosby – Former HBOS team captain, hand picked by Brown to shore up the defence but had too many long lunches and waived the attackers through, arguing that the less defenders tackle the less goals they concede.

Centre back: Sir George Mathewson - Architect of the RBS team hailed as the best ever, until it was discovered it had been taking performance enhancing credit. Not wanted by the HBOS team, but he still is allowed to play in Alex Salmond’s five aside team.

Right whinger: David Cameron – Qualifies through his Scottish grandfather (the one he doesn’t like to mention to his English club mates). Always complaining that he should be the captain. His tactics involve sitting on the sidelines doing nothing in the belief that it will turn the season around.

Left whinger: Alex Salmond - GB would prefer him left back far away. Keeps wandering out of position and trying to wrestle the captain's armband off GB. Dazzles everybody with his twinkle toe moves on spivs and speculators, but then ends up firing the ball into his own net - known as the "open goal mouth technique."

Holding player: Sir Tom McKillop – When the chips are down it is said (by UK government sources) the former RBS chairman can always play keepy uppy with the money just long enough for his old team mates to walk away with it in their pockets. Just ask Sir Fred.

Playmaker: Andy Hornby – Became a crowd pleaser with captivating play that seemed too good to be true in his quest to take HBOS to world glory. Unfortunately it was and his bank became the Accrington Stanley of finance rather than the Manchester United. Now on a loan spell at Lloyds.

(Too far) Forward: Jim "April" Faulds – Former Dunfermline BS captain was fed up with safe mid-table obscurity so changed sport to appeal to a new commercial market. Fell flat on his face and complained loudly when Alistair Darling wouldn’t come over with a large sack of oranges to revive him.

Striker: Sir Fred Goodwin – Former RBS top shot is happiest when he is firing (other people). Likes to play an expansive game. Unfortunately currently without a club after he mortgaged its assets on a has-been Dutch international, but still commands a huge salary.

Stuck on the bench: Vince Cable – graduated in Glasgow and is recognised as the only player around who knows what to do. But his team mates won’t let him on the pitch because his Lib Dem club play too far down the divisions and may not even get European qualification in Scotland in the election in June.

Iceland

Sponsor: Previously Icesave otherwise known as British savers, but more recently the Russian Government.

Home ground: Wreck’ya’bank

Goalkeeper: Geir Hilmar Haarde - dumped as Prime Minister of Iceland after dropping the financial ball in 2008, not even able to save his own country let alone the world.

Left but not back: Björgvin Sigurðsson - Iceland’s first trade minister was the only one to do the honourable thing and quit the team.

Central defence: Jon Sigurdsson - as Iceland Financial Services Authority’s chairman he took a similar view to defence as Sir James Crosby, except with less tackling.

Playmaker: David "playing the odds" Oddsson (Capt) – as prime minister he orchestrated the team’s expansionist style and then as central bank governor he organised the non-tackling defence. Amazingly, was still miffed when dropped from the team sheet.

Central Midfield: Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson – Chairman of the now nationalised Landsbanki, Iceland’s biggest bank, but fortunately knows a bit more about football as the owner of West Ham United.

Diamond geezer formation: Sigurdur Einarsson, Kaupthing bank chairman; Kjartan Gunnarsson, vice chairman of Landsbanki; Larus Welding, Glitnir bank chief executive; and Thorsteinn M. Jonsson, chairman of Glitnir - Impressed the world with their intricate passing of money until people realised that it wasn’t only the ball that was full of air.



Playing in the hole: Paul Carter – Leader of Kent County Council gained residency status for the Icelandic team by leaving £50m of taxpayers’ cash in the country for years even after he was told to get out.

Sweeper: Björk – bringing in a new broom, the pop singer is clearly the only talented player on the park because she does not have any background in finance or politics. Reinvented herself as a venture capitalist to save her country from oblivion, but is likely to walk away with the ball because she does not want Iceland to play internationally any more.

Final result: They both lost.

Ross Lydall: What's Next for Darling and the stagnant economy?

Gordon Brown, being the tribal politican that he is, was always found wearing a plain red tie. He has since gravitated, guided no doubt by his wife, Sarah, to purple.
Alistair Darling tries to express himself with the occasional stripey, multi-coloured number. That plan was slightly derailed around the time of the Pre-Budget Report when Jack Straw, the Justice Secretary, sported the same tie - as they sat virtually side by side on the green benches of the Commons, looking like a couple of schoolboys.
Still, this was not as bad as a recent Prime Minister's question time, when Hazel Blears, the Communities Secretary, and Chief Treasury Secretary Yvette Cooper wore identical black and while skirt-suits. It is difficult to know which woman felt more embarrassed.
None of the above appears to shop in Next, and after the comments this morning from its sharp-suited chief executive, none is likely to be keen to patronise its stores.
Simon Wolfson, whose profile has risen dramatically over the last year, shared the prestigious 8.10am slot on the Today programme with Marks & Spencer chairman Sir Stuart Rose.
What would have made uncomfortable listening for the Cabinet was Mr Wolfson's assessment of the impact of the 2.5 point cut in the rate of VAT, announced in November by Mr Darling and due to last 13 months.
“I think it was a missed opportunity," Mr Wolfson said. “If it was designed to boost expenditure, then it really has had no effect whatsoever."
'Nuff said. The VAT cut is costing £11.1 billion (£12.4 billion less the extra duty on booze and fags). According to Mr Wolfson, it's money down the drain.

Speculation lives on! - Eddie Barnes

The markets may lack the confidence to speculate in hard cash these days, but the newspaper industry (political wing) is suffering no such crisis judging from today's papers.

First there are claims that the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, is considering a second bail-out of the banks, now that it appears the first one last year hasn't done the job. Then there is talk that he might also create a national "bad bank" where all the High Street banks' toxic assets will be thrown, leaving them cleansed anew. A careworn Treasury official pointed out to me that it is difficult to deny such stories completely when Darling has already declared that he will "consider all options" to tackle the credit crunch. In other words, the story is true, but the key word is "considering".

Second, there is speculation of a Lib-Lab pact, based on an article written by LibDem shadow chancellor Vince Cable talking up the benefits of a national government. Presumably, one of the benefits of this idea for Vince Cable is that Vince Cable would be a key member of it, preferably at Number 11. I have my doubts, not least because LibDem leader Nick Clegg is said to be unenthused.

What's more, a national government would be a rotten idea. The last thing the country needs right now is an echo chamber. For if Mr Darling is preparing to lavish billions more of taxpayers' money to solve the financial crisis, surely we need opposition politicians more than ever, to cast a stern eye over this eye-watering expenditure? Especially those like Mr Cable, who have a proven knack for hitting the nail on the proverbial head....

Gerri Peev: Pesto needs mortar

Well, at least Panorama needs a blast. Sometimes there is just not enough bang for the buck. The BBC's endless trailing of the Panorama documentary: The Year Britain's Bubble Burst, offered more teasing than a peep show.

It boasted interviews with some of the most significant players in the run-up to the near collapse of banking as we know it. Robert Peston, the Beeb's economics editor, even bemoaned the fact the programme was only half an hour long on his blog, meaning that some of the juicy interviews ended on the cutting room floor.

It is odd, then, that the editors of the Beeb deemed it more interesting to devote more than half the programme to the journalist behind the story. Talented though he is, surely viewers wanted to know more about what Hector Sants (FSA boss), Alistair Darling, John Gieve (deputy governor of the Bank of England who admitted he did not have a clue) and Barclays' boss John Varley thought than why Peston decided to become a journalist. No doubt Peston is slightly embarrassed about being the focus of the documentary himself.

One more thing: the BBC's gloating about how Peston had an exclusive scoop about the bank bail out in October is not entirely true. Bill Jamieson, The Scotsman's executive editor, had the scoop on our front page story in our first editions on October 7. That means it was on the page many hours before the BBC had it online or broadcast the news.

The BBC has form in this, it tried to claim a story as its own a few weeks ago about RBS job losses that we had run on that day's front page.

Gerri Peev: Darling calls for Dave to bring it on

ALISTAIR Darling has just given an entertaining speech at the Press Gallery lunch (yes really, he can be cutting). But just after he disarmed everyone with a barrage of jokes, including one about driving past RBS HQ and thinking: "I own that" (no actually, Chancellor, WE own that), he launched into a full-scale assault.

His attack was unsurprisingly on David Cameron who has been equally vocal in tearing strips of Gordon Brown's borrowing binge but a little more silent on his great plan. The Tory leader this morning called for an immediate general election to give voters a choice. And the Chancellor seemed to square up to him.

He contrasted Barack Obama's election slogan of "yes we can" to the Conservatives "no we can't" and said the dividing lines for the electorate would be clear ahead of the next election...But before we could start booking our places on the party battle buses, he stressed the government was getting on with tackling the economic crisis rather than plotting an election campaign.

David Maddox: Darling to woo Glasgow East? The answer

Just had a Labour spindoctor on the phone about the Chancellor's visit to Glasgow East.
"It's not what you think," he said. "Although obviously Glasgow east will be a key target in the next general election whenever that is."
He added: "Remember Margaret (Curran, the defeated by-election candidate who has just announced she will stand again) made a commitment in the by-election that win or lose she will bring Alistair Darling to ther constituency to hear the concerns of local people. That's what's happening today, although it will be a quick visit."
From what I remember of the Fort shopping centre in Easterhouse, the first place I went to during the by-election, Mr Darling may need to pencil in a bit more time. There were many shoppers there who had given up on Labour at the time and the relative poverty was underlined by the centre's propensity of pound, charity and loan shops.
But if things get to heavy for the Chancellor there is a shiny Labour Party office there for him to take cover in.

David Maddox: Darling to woo Glasgow East?

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, is in Glasgow today for a couple of engagements, the second of which is to meet "community leaders" at the Fort shopping centre in the city's east end.
Now you don't need a long memory to remember that Glasgow East was the scene of a particularly humiliating night in recent Labour history when the Nationalist John Mason won the by-election and overturned a massive majority to become the constituency's first non-Labour MP.
Is it a coincidence that just yesterday Margaret Curran, the MSP defeated by Mr Mason in the by-election, announced she was to stand again at the general election?
Could it be that Gordon Brown has sent his Chancellor up to woo the people of Glasgow East?
If the answer to the second question is "yes" then the SNP are feeling quite relaxed about it.
"Darling was voted most boring politician of the year two years running," one noted SNP spindoctor told me last night.

David Maddox: Making a meal out of tax cuts

It's nice to know that Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling want to line our pockets with money - coppers that is.
Just had my usual breakfast - a plastic cup full of fruit salad - from Holyrood's canteen and found that the usual cost of £1.20 has been reduced to £1.17. This, of course, is the result of the reduction in VAT from 17.5 per cent to 15 per cent announced by Mr Darling last week. Apparently my £3 lunch will be knocked down by the princely sum of 6p.
I can't help but feel that Messrs Darling and Brown are taking the old adage "watch the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves" a little far.
Apart from adding a little weight to my pocket with jingling copper coins, you have to wonder whether such paltry sums will have much affect at all, especially when shops are already knocking down prices by up to 50 per cent.
The one affect the VAT cut has had -as witnessed by one or two sweaty brows in Holyrood's canteen - is to stress out the poor people who have to reconfigure their tills and reprice their products to keep up with this temporary change.