David Maddox: Afghanistan - the Peter Principle

Dr Laurence J. Peter (pictured right), the Canadian born hierarcheologist, is probably best known for the Peter Principle that "everybody rises to the level of their incompetence."

He argued that at some point every position was held by somebody incompetent to do the job and the real work was done by those who had not yet reached their own level of incompetence.

It sounds like former RBS chief Sir Fred Goodwin's professional epitaph.

And any observer of politicians would know that this is especially true in the world of politics where the threshold for the level of incompetence is all too often very low.

Which brings us on neatly to the continuing conflict in Afghanistan and the historical vortex of incompetence that the world's various powers have found themselves in for more than 150 years.

A less well known but even more pessimistic quotation from Dr Peter is on history.

"History teaches us the mistakes we are going to make," he said.

It seems a very apt quote on the day that Gordon Brown orders more troops into Afghanistan following President Obama's plea for more support in a conflict that eventually, if we look at historical precedent, seems doomed to failure.

The late George MacDonald Fraser's novel Flashman perhaps offers most readable object lesson in history for Afghanistan. it charts the demise of the British army's first catastrophic foray into Afghanistan under the command of the incompetent Scottish Major General Lord Elphinstone(an historical example of the Peter principle) ending up with his force's massacre in January 1842.

MacDonald Fraser's building of history around the hilarious antics of the cowardly, womanising bully Flashman (of Tom Brown's Schooldays infamy) adds pathos to an unfolding tragedy known as the First Afghan War.

Since 1842 the British have been back, the Russians had a go, the Americans have been in along with the British (again) and others. Even with more technical weaponry, none have tamed that country or its warlords.

The cause of stopping terrorism, saving women from the Taliban's awful abuses and turning a failed state into a successful democracy are all worthy and just ones. And it is also true that British troops are currently out-killing Taliban ones - 15 to 200 in the last month.
But in the end every major army has failed in Afghanistan, the sooner this is recognised and the allies get out the less lives may be wasted.

Gerri Peev: One industry that won't tank in the recession

WANT big bonuses? Forget Goldman Sachs and join the Army. At least, that's what the forces recruiting sergeants are wanting to spin to anyone feeling slightly crunched by the (lack of) credit.

An ad in a national newspaper today bears the big banner: "WE STILL OFFER BIG BONUSES". It goes on to boast that soliders enjoy six weeks' paid holiday, free healthcare, a competitive pension and subsidised rent. For good measure it adds: "Most of all, you'll have the chance to make a positive impact on the lives of people all over the world. There can be few greater rewards than this." It invites interested candidates to text 'Recruit' to a number (I won't give that out. They can take out an ad in The Scotsman first). The MoD can no doubt save on advertising in the near future though: recruitment levels for the military all round are bound to surge with the economic downturn.

I remember having dinner a year or so ago with a minister who bemoaned the fact that the then buoyant economy and rampant job choices made it a struggle to entice youngsters into the armed forces. With Jock Stirrup, the Chief of Defence Staff, now making clear that more troops will be needed in Afghanistan, the renewed interest in the armed forces as a career option will be welcome.

Paradoxically, the more "progress" Nato makes in the country, the more troops it needs to guard the newly pacified territory. As the Defence Chief himself said: "We have to be very careful in our choice of words when talking about Afghanistan. Terms like winning and victory have no place in the lexicon there."