It's that time of year again, and the first vote on the Scottish Budget will take place on Wednesday. Manufacturers of nail-clippers, beta-blockers and booze will expect a spike in sales at Holyrood between now and the 3rd of February, the scheduled date for Stage 3.
Either way, some of the number-crunching out there is flawed. The key thing to remember with the maths is this: Stage 1 and Stage 3, the two parts where Parliament as a whole normally votes on the Budget, are different in a small but crucial way.
At Stage 1, if the vote is tied the Presiding Officer will vote to allow the Budget through to Stage 2. His responsibility is to stick to the status quo, and his (very reasonable) interpretation last year was that continued discussion is the status quo.
By Stage 3, though, status quo has been defined by the PO to mean last year's Budget. A 64-64 tie (or some other tie with abstentions) and he'll vote the current Budget down, just as he did last year.
Therefore, John Swinney needs, assuming no abstentions, no party splits, and no missing MSPs, 64 at Stage 1 and 65 at Stage 3.
To correct Jeff's numbers, the combinations for a minimal Stage 1 success can be:
SNP + Labour = 93
SNP + Tories + Lib Dems = 79
SNP + Tories + Greens = 65
SNP + Lib Dems + Greens = 65
SNP + Tories + Margo = 64
SNP + Lib Dems + Margo = 64
By Stage 3, those last two have dropped off. With those assumptions above, Margo can't influence that vote: the SNP need either Labour or any other two parties to back them.
Having spent years jousting indirectly with Margo when I worked for the first two Presiding Officers, I didn't expect my opinion of her to warm, but it has. She's got an extraordinary tactical nous, a fearless ability to stand up for unpopular causes on principle, and she's funny. She's done very well through the SNP's previous Budgets, and I suspect, arithmetic notwithstanding, she'll do so again.
Labels: John Swinney, Margo MacDonald, Scottish budget, Scottish Green Party