Eddie Barnes: Whose recession is it?

Is Scotland out of recession? The Office of National Statistics has revealed this morning that UK plc has - ahem- rocketed out of the economic gloom, surging by a whole 0.1% in the final quarter of 2009. The regional breakdowns won't be collated until April, when we'll find whether or not Scotland has managed to keep pace with the UK's own booming growth. Last week, we reported how Scottish economists had their doubts about whether it would, following some pretty weak findings from the pre-Christmas period.

Assuming Scotland is found in April to still be in recession, the politics become very interesting. If May 6th is confirmed as the election date, that news will hit in the first weeks of the general election campaign. Who will voters blame: the SNP in Edinburgh, or Labour in London? The answer to that could go a long way to dictating the outcome of the election north of the border. The lesson of the Glasgow North-East by election for the SNP was how Labour managed to turn a Westminster election into a referendum on the Scottish Government, and their handling of the economy (in particular the decision to cancel the GARL link). Labour will undoubtedly play the same card going into the general election, aided by the fact that Holyrood has arguably become the focus of attention in recent years. Has the SNP learnt its lesson? Alex Salmond should be laying the ground now to try and shift the emphasis away from his own administration and onto Westminster.