Eddie Barnes - Budget predictions

Time for Holyrood to take back some attention from the Westminster pre-election fun. The Scottish Government's budget is laid before parliament today ahead of the first debate next week. Expect stern warnings of non-cooperation and brinksmanship from the opposition parties, and sage words from the Scottish Government about politicians' responsibilities to the public.

I expect the SNP Government to get the budget passed this time round without quite the same fuss as last year, when it was defeated by opposition MSPs amid totally chaotic scenes. My prediction is for both the LibDems and the Conservatives to have come on board once push comes to shove. The deal they cut with the SNP won't be about getting sweeties and pet projects however; rather it'll be about getting the credit for some populist cuts on public sector waste. Meanwhile, I expect Labour to dig their heels in, demand the reinstatement of the Glasgow Airport Rail Link, and then - once its been turned down- head straight to the printers for a fresh batch of "SNP anti-Glasgow" leaflets. I doubt the Greens will be given quite as much leverage as they had last year.

This will be the last budget round before the real cutbacks start kicking in this time next year. And leaving aside some token gestures its unlikely that we'll get much debate in this budget round on how the Scottish Government intends to tackle it - particularly as the SNP is about to go into an election promising to protect Scots from the worst of Labour-Tory cuts. Ominously, the same applies with bells on this time next year, when the budget round will take place just a few weeks before the 2011 Holyrood campaign. It all suggests that Scotland is in danger of lagging behind the rest of the UK in preparing for the spending crisis which is assuredly just around the next corner.

PS. A great story emerging this morning - reports that English Health Secretary Andy Burnham is considering minimum pricing on alcohol. This after Iain Gray's Scottish Labour contingent had declared their forthright opposition to such a plan. Oops. Did right hand talk to left hand, we wonder?

Update: Downing Street has declared it would not be "sensible" to go for a minimum pricing scheme. Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy has also told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland programme that punishing the majority would be "the wrong thing to do."