David Maddox: The Numbers Game (8)

It always amazes me how seriously parties take the numbers games and how they crawl over every minute detail from the polls.
My earlier blog on desperation tactics sparked a fairly sharp retort from the Labour offices:

"Polls commissioned by parties do not tell you much - the parties control the questions and crucially the weightings attached to each class of voter (there were 308 people who said they'd vote Labour, but this was "weighted" to 266 in the results). Stick with newspaper polls - they're more reliable!!" It read.

And it was pointed out that while there was a healthy lead for the SNP in its own commissioned poll for Holyrood the Nationalists were behind for Westminster. And if it was compared with the last SNP commissioned poll of August 2008 the SNP were going down which ever way you look at it.

Here they all are along with Westminster seat calculations courtesy as ever of Electoral Calculus:

Westminster (seats won and change in number in brackets):
August 2008: SNP 36% (26 +20) Lab 29% (22 -19) Tories 18% (4 +3) LD 13% (7 -4)
April 2009: SNP 30% (10 +4) Lab 32% (35 -6) Tories 21% (5 +4) LD 13% (9 -2)

Holyrood constituencies:
August 2008: SNP 44% Lab 25% Tories 13% LD 14%
April 2009: SNP 37% Lab 30% Tories 15% LD 13%

What does this prove?
1. Voters are fickle.
2. They vote differently for Holyrood than Westminster.
3. Point 2 suggests that SNP votes are not necessarily for independence.
4. Minor fluctuations in support could lead to dramatic changes in results (see the Westminster seat calculations).

David Maddox: The numbers game (7) - Desperate tactics

Life these days is tough for a Labour spin doctor because most of the poll readings are not exactly messages of joy for Messrs Brown, Darling, Gray et al.

So in the last week when the polls have been particularly bad both UK-wide and in Scotland, they have deployed their last cards in the numbers game. The tactic appears to be take whatever looks good however flimsy and desperate in the hope it has an impact.

So in a week when poll figures that suggest David Cameron would have a 150 seat majority if an election were called, Labour sent me this Scottish sample from yesterday's Daily Politics poll.

When asked: Who do you trust to steer Britain through the downturn?
Brown/Darling 48% v Cameron/Osborne 22%

Looks impressive until you realise that this Scottish sample is just 90 people.

It reminded me of last week's response to the Yougov poll commissioned by the SNP last week which gave the Nationalists a seven per cent lead in Scotland over Labour.

Labour of course dismissed it because it was SNP commissioned, even though it was a neutral organisation conducting the survey and came up with another Scottish sample of a concurrent UK-wide poll.

Lab 41% Con 27% SNP 18% Lib Dems 14% UKIP 1%

Again very impressive until you realise that this sample is just 165 people - "more than most samples," Labour insisted, but not exactly a scientific survey. Perhaps the fact the sample has the Tories scoring 27 per cent in Scotland should raise doubts about how it reflects support in Scotland, even the most ardent true blues would not be that optimistic.

However, Labour's spin doctors may still have a point. Larger polls have proven to be horribly wrong in the past. Let us not forget 1992, I know Labour don't, when the Conservative won despite what the polls had suggested. In recent times too, in Scotland at least, the polls have fluctuated greatly between Labour and SNP support. There's only one type of poll that counts the rest are just window dressing.

The next true poll then will be on June 4 in the European elections.

David Maddox: Time to get registered for the Euros

No not the football competitions. The European Parliament election will be with us soon and here's a sneak preview of the TV advert reminding people to register to vote in time.

David Maddox: Going behind enemy lines

Patrick Harvie has today led a delegation of Greens on a tour around Hunterston B Nuclear Power Station in Ayrshire.

It may come as a shock that this is not a "break-in" by anti-nuclear protesters, but a guided tour of the facility which is due to be decommissioned in 2016. Although when I spoke on the phone to his press officer Jame MacKenzie, while he was on the tour, his hushed tones suggested something surreptitious was going on. As we all know the Greens are virulently anti-nuclear.

Apparently they were not expecting to find an Ayrshire version of Homer Simpson (pictured).

Shockingly, it seems that the inveterate twitter Mr Harvie has not added a nuclear power station to his list of unusual places to tweet.

Hamish Macdonell - A political apprentice

FORGET Boris Johnson, a new name has emerged as a runner in the race to become the next London Mayor - Sir Alan Sugar.
Bookies William Hills have cut his price from 10/1 to 8/1 to succeed Brois, pushing out Ken Livingston to 16/1. Hills are also offering 66/1 that Sir Alan is elected and chooses either Nick Hewer or Margaret Mountford as his Deputy, whilst a TV programme to decide the deputy is a 100/1 shot.
"If Sir Alan decides to run for Mayor he will be a near on certainty, the only reason that you can get 8/1 is that we think he will be too busy with his other business interest to commit to the role," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.
Also: 150/1 Any of the Current Crop Of Apprentices to be Sir Alan's Number Two in the London Mayor's Office.
William Hill London Mayoral Elections 2012: 1/1 Boris Johnson, 8/1 Alan Sugar, 16/1 Ken Livingstone, 16/1 Jon Cruddas, 25/1 Trevor Phillips, 25/1 David Lammy, 25/1 Tessa Jowell, 25/1 Richard Branson, 33/1 Bar.
ends

David Maddox: Rewards for failure

So what price failure in the Scottish Government. Well in the last two years it has been £163,024.25, a price paid not by failed ministers but to them by the poor old tax payer.

This nuggest came out in a recent parliamentary answer by John Swinney to Lord George Foulkes, Baron of Cumnock, Labour MSP for the Lothians, First Lord of the Twittery.

It seems that 10 Labour and Lib Dem ministers who lost their jobs in May 2007 because the electorate preferred the SNP were paid £99,742.50 between them as a pay-off.

Then the three former SNP ministers - Stewart Maxwell (bottom left), Linda Fabiani (mid left) and Maureen Watt (top left) - deemed so hopeless by Alex salmond that he sacked them got £43,730.75 between them for not being up to the job - that's £14,576.92 each.

Hamish Macdonell - Below the belt?

ONE party leader, who really shouldn't be named, was mulling over the following line for FMQs.
"Why is it, Mr Salmond," they planned to ask,"that you are the only person in Scotland who is refusing to tighten his - rather large - belt?"
The question was dropped after consultation with advisers. A good thing too, probably, as Mr Salmond is not one of those who takes ribbing about his weight very well ...
ends

David Maddox: Holyrood constituency boundary consultation put back

Just had an e-mail passed on to me which was sent to all the political parties yesterday. Basically, the Boundary Commission's final on consultation on its proposals for the Holyrood constituencies has been put back after a request by the SNP and Lib Dems.
It appears the two parties were concerned about the consultation clashing with the European election campaign.
These proposals are particularly contentious not least because many of the 129 constituencies will be unrecognisable afterwards and some, like Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's, will disappear altogether.
No doubt the SNP and Lib Dems did not want any minor electoral distractions from arguing over them.

Here's the e-mail:

Dear all,
Hugh Buchanan, Secretary to the Boundary Commission for Scotland, has asked me to pass on the below information. Should you require any further information on this, can I ask that you contact Hugh directly.
At last week's PPP meeting, there was a discussion about the Boundary Commission for Scotland's intention to publish its Revised Recommendations for Constituencies and Provisional Proposals for Regions on 7 May 2009.
Political parties expressed concern that the ensuing one month statutory consultation period would be so closely aligned with the preparations for the European elections to be held on 4 June. I undertook to discuss with the Commission the possibility of rescheduling the publication of their proposals.
The Commission met on Monday 20 April, and when discussing this issue concluded that the consultation process is likely to be improved if the publication is put back to 21 May 2009. The statutory consultation period will then run until 21 June 2009.
Kind regards,
Mark Nicholls Senior Political Parties Liaison Officer The Electoral Commission

David Maddox: The day ahead - Holyrood tweets, budget cuts and newspapers

It's pretty clear what subject's going to dominate Holyrood today as it has done for weeks before and will do for months to come - the Budget and the cuts/ efficiency savings to the Scottish block grant.

We are still unclear whether the cut to the previously expected amount for 2010 is £500 million as the SNP say or £367 million as Labour say, but it will be the theme of First ministers' questions today whether Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray likes it or not.

You can follow FMQs on Twitter, assuming goes to plan, by following thesteamie profile where I will try to keep you updated.

I should add that I also put comments on my new Twitter profile DavidPBMaddox, every so often, although not running commentaries from Holyrood debates. I felt that if Labour MSP Lord George Foulkes can be First Lord of the Twittery and Green MSP Patrick Harvie can tweet from Gordon Brown's dinner table then it was time to have a go myself.

One other debate of interest will be a debate on the Scottish newspaper industry put forward by Labour MSP and former journalist David Whitton. We live in interesting times in this industry and whatever you think of the various titles its future will form an important part of holding politicians in councils, Holyrood and Westminster to account.

David Maddox: The end of the SNP's flirtation with the Catholics?

WHEN Alex Salmond went on his jaunt to China to portray himself again as a world instead of a parochial figure, he may not have calculated that his trip would undermine his attempts to win an important group in the Scottish electorate.

Much has been made of Mr Salmond's attempts to woo the Roman Catholic vote in Scotland for the SNP not least with calls to change the discriminatory Act of Settlement which prevents Catholics becoming the monarch or even being part of the Royal family.

He also made a rare trip back to Westminster to vote on bio-ethics and tightening abortion laws and in 2008 drew praise from Cardinal Keith O'Brien (pictured) when he announced that he wanted moral values taught in schools.

The stakes are high not least because the now Tory supporting Bishop Joe Devine has been trying to persuade his flock to abandon their traditional support for Labour, but more importantly because the Catholic vote is an identifiable group which could be the key to breaking Labour's historic grip on Glasgow and the West of Scotland.

Putting a firmly Christian anti-abortion candidate up in the largely Catholic Glasgow East, John Mason, helped tip the balance in a tight result against the Labour MSP Margaret Curran who supports abortion and experimentation on foetuses.

But it seems that his apparent support for stem cell research on the China trip, an issue that Cardinal O'Brien has described as "Frankenstein medicine", giving his blessing to collaboration between Edinburgh University and Chinese scientists, has undone some of his good work as this article in the Scottish Catholic Observer, Scotland's biggest Catholic newspaper, appears to suggest.

This was accompanied by a leading article quoting the Cardinal's Easter sermon which suggested that Scotland is on the verge of social collapse.

Which all goes to show that it is no simple matter to win over the support of large interest groups, although it was also perhaps misguided to believe that thousands of Catholic would be persuaded to vote on ethical arguments rather than the more practical issues of life.

David Maddox: Could it be that there will be an election soon?

This job ad has just been e-mailed to students at Edinburgh university. Interesting to note that no previous experience is required or for that matter political loyalty just a willingness to work the phones for £6 an hour.
It does beg the question over whether the Tories have enough volunteers for the forthcoming European election. I'm sure they'll be in touch shortly to say they have.

Here's the email and job advert:

I work for the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party and we are currently looking at employing part-time telephone canvassers. The hours and flexibility of the work would make it ideal for students [......]I hope you will be able to help. The details of the post are below but if you need any further information please do not hesitate to contact me.
Kind regards, Andrea Stephenson

Job Details
Position: Telephone canvasser
Based: Princes Street, Edinburgh
Pay: £6 per hour
Hours: 5pm - 8pm, Monday - Friday (operate on a time sheet system, so complete flexibility if people can not make days because of exams etc)
Experience: None required, full training will be given.

Hamish Macdonell - some obscure odds

SOME punters might like to bet on the state of the country's finances after tomorrow's budget.
There are, however, some more entertaining and less gloomy wagers to be had.
William Hill has just published its list of Budget odds, and it includes:

ALISTAIR DARLING IS A 6/4 CHANCE WITH WILLIAM HILL TO WEAR A RED TIE to deliver the Budget - and 20/1 to wear a black one.Hills also offer - 5/2 Pink; 3/1 Blue; 20/1 Black; Green; Grey; Yellow; 33/1 Brown; White. (Predominant colour wins).

Hills are also offering 100/1 that the Chancellor announces his resignation during the Budget speech.

HOW MANY TIMES WILL HE STOP FOR A DRINK?

HILLS offer Even money that the Chancellor will pause for a sip of liquid three or more times during his speech; 3/1 that he does so TWICE; 7/2 ONCE; and 5/1 that he will not do so at all.

Also, the length of 2009 Budget speech
Under 46 mins - 7/1
46 to 50 mins - 7/2
51 to 55 mins - 4/1
56 to 60 mins - 5/1
61 to 65 mins - 6/1
66 to 70 mins - 7/1
71 to 75 mins - 8/1
76 to 80 mins - 10/1
Over 80 mins - 12/1
Last year's was 50 mins 25 secs

CHANCELLOR 5/1 TO SAY 'SORRY' IN BUDGET !
WILLIAM HILL have opened a book on the possible contents of the Budget Speech, and are offering odds of 5/1 that the Chancellor will follow his leader Gordon Brown in using the word 'sorry' during the speech. 'Sorry seems to be the hardest word for politicians, but now that Gordon Brown has used it maybe the floodgates will open!' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Mr Darling is 1/9 to remain Chancellor during 2009, and 5/1 to leave the job before the end of the year.

MR DARLING IS 1/6 TO DELIVER THE FIRST BUDGET OF 2010, but Hills offer 2/5 that George Osborne will be the NEXT Chancellor; 4/1 Ken Clarke; 10/1 Vince Cable; 20/1 Jack Straw; 25/1 David Miliband.

Hills also offer 6/4 that cigarettes go up by 12p or more; 6/5 that beer goes up by 5p per pint or more. They also offer Even money that the Chancellor will announce a VAT rate of over 17.5%. 'Most punters expect that booze and cigarettes will again be the Chancellor's targets.' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

How much will the chancellor raise the price of a packet of 20 cigarettes by?
Under 11p - 6/4
Exactly 11p - 9/4
Over 11p - 6/4

How much will the chancellor raise the price of a pint of beer by?
Under 4p - 7/4
Exactly 4p - 5/2
Over 4p - 6/5

What rate will the chancellor set VAT at in his budget speech?
Under 17.5% - 5/2
Exactly 17.5% - 2/1
Over 17.5% - Evs

Will the chancellor say the word "sorry" in his speech?
5/1Yes
1/9 No

ends

Hamish Macdonell - El Presidente?

ALEX Salmond is not renowned as someone who lacks confidence or needs his ego massaged.
But that message had not got through to one recipient of a health and safety award at the STUC conference today.
Receiving his award from Mr Salmond, the star-struck soul could only reply: "Thank you Mr President."
The First Minister emerged from the hall, his chest puffed out even more than usual, murmuring to himself: "I quite like the sound of that."
If that's not a warning, I don't know what is ...
ends

David Maddox: Tales of sheep and the Middle Eastern divide on offer at Perth

As this blog has noted before, the Perth Concert Hall is now the favoured destination for annual conferences in Scotland. The latest ongoing this week is the Scottish Trade Union Congress (STUC).

Apart from Harriet Harman's gaffe, covered in today's Scotsman, there were a couple of other curiosities at the conference yesterday.

One of the funnier things was the way somebody turned on a noise sounding like a herd of sheep every time the cncert hall's sliding doors opened, to the slight consternation of Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy.

It was not clear whether the sheep addition was a joke, an accident or a piece of social commentary on a group of people who seemed to agree on everything.

Although, maybe not everything. It was noticeable that the a room given over to various stalls from interest groups had diplomatically put the Scottish Friends of Palestine at one end of the room and Scottish Trade Union Friends of Israel at the opposite end as far away as possible. Amnesty was stuck somewhere in the middle.

It did lead to an interesting conflict for delegates in terms of entering the pro-Israeli raffle for a bottle of Israeli wine or to follow the Palestinian supporters' view that anything Israeli should be boycotted. To say that the two people on the Palestinian stall were glowering across the room would not do justice to the mental daggers they were sending across.

In contrast Donald MacDougall, who has lived in and around Perth for more than 60 years and was looking after the pro-Israel stall when I arrived took a far more conciliatory view. He went across to introduce himself to the other stalls and appropriate on a day when the Iranian President's remarks in the UN about Israel were condemned as racist, wore a Let's Give Racism the Red Card sticker. It has to be said that he was not aware of what was going on in the UN.

He explained to me that his support for Israel was based on his Christian faith and the hope that the two sides could be reconciled rather than blind loyalty to whatever the Israeli government has done. He did not agree though that it is an apartheid society or that by excluding Israelis would solve the problem. He recounted several uplifting tales of how people over there can co-operate from his many visits to the area.

David Maddox: Nationalist spring conference

In many ways the SNP's conference today started in Greyfriars Kirk in Edinburgh today rather than in its venue in Glasgow. Many in the party gathered friends and political foes to commemorate the life of one of Nationalism's greatest voices - Professor Sir Neil MacCormick (top right). More on the funeral in tomorrow's Scotsman.
But the official conference opening in the Glasgow Thistle Hotel was delivered by a more recent hero, John Mason, the man who won Glasgow East for the SNP in the stunning by-election last summer.
A contact in Labour has noted that "immitation is the best form of flattery" as Labour just a few weeks ago got their by-election hero of November, new Glenrothes MP Lindsay Roy to open their Scottish conference.
Some wag (apparently a member of the Labour student movement) has tried to liven up events by providing a conference bingo card.
On the link below are two bingo cards to mark off favourite phrases and names in conference speeches. The nice 'n easy one apparently gets delegates a tartan keyring, but the more difficult killer version's prize of shares in Iceland may not be quite as valuable.

Readers will note on the easy version that popular topics and people such as "Scotland's oil", "Glasgow East", "Homecoming", "independence" and "John Mason" are mentioned.

Meanwhile Education Secretary Fiona Hyslop, seen by many as a weak link, may not be chuffed to be on the killer version of unlikely embarrassing mentions along with "Kosovo", "Scottish Futures Trust", any country from the arc of prosperity (or bankruptcy) and any education pledge made in the 2007 election.
SNP%20Conference%20Bingo.pdf

Gerri Peev: Green baits Jacqui

IF the Home Secretary returns to her constituency home to find a horses' head in her bed, she can rest assured that it won't be some cable-inspired fetish of her husband's for once.

The phrase employed by Damian Green could hold some clues to this.

Green, the shadow immigration minister who was cuffed and fingerprinted last November over his role in publicising Home Office leaks, has been cleared of any conspiracy by the Director of Public Prosecutions.

After having his home and parliamentary office turned over, he is still - understandably - a little angry.

Smith should beware. At a briefing of Lobby hacks, Green was asked where he thought responsibility for the misguided police probe lay. Sporting a Camorra-esque glint in his eye, he said: "I prescribe to the old Italian proverb - fish stink from the head down."

The government is not off the hook on this one.

David Maddox: For Foulkes Sake (8)

Lord George Foulkes, Baron of Cumnock, MSP for Lothians and First Lord of the Twittery has been at it again, as you can read in his column in today's Evening News.

He has wound up his opponents by suggesting that MPs and MSPs are underpaid and that lavish expenses are not as bad as they might seem.

But, there was a hint of irony in the response from the SNP claiming that the noble one was "out of touch."

In the second piece of the column, Lord Foulkes took a pop at his favourite target cybernats - the lunatic fringe of Scottish nationalism who stay up all night to write vitriol on newspaper websites. One of his complaints was that their grammar is appalling and they cannot spell.

This must be why the SNP press release condemning him misspelt his name "Fou8llkes." So maybe he is not as out of touch as they suggested.

Gerri Peev: Draper's tips on "maximum coverage with minimum risk"

Derek Draper, editor of LabourList and recipient of emails from Damian McBride, is one of a number of expert bloggers at a digital conference this June.

The leaflet here (click to open as a PDF) tries to entice PR managers to "ensure your PR campaigns gain maximum coverage with minimum risk".

There is also a practical "how to" session on blogging, and the advertisement prophetically says: "get the tone right to ensure your efforts don't end up as an example of 'how not to'."

At least "Dr" Draper will not have to go far for suitable case studies.

Also appearing at the one day PR New Media Conference on 25 June is DJ Collins, director of comms at Google.

This is the same DJ Collins who was David Miliband's unofficial media guru around the time that speculation surfaced that the Foreign Secretary would challenge GB for the leadership.

Perhaps the two could compare notes about keeping digital communications private, given Google's problems with Streetview.

David Maddox: No harm in letting children see the feathers fly at Holyrood

The above picture is a sight that the authorities in the Scottish Parliament wish to protect the "innocent" eyes Scottish children who tramp through the doors each week on school trips. It is of course the mangled corpse of a pigeon - winged vermin - with its killer a hawk.

As reported in the Scotsman this week, Holyrood's chiefs are finally putting out a contract for a falconer to scare off the pigeons who are covering the Scottish Parliament with poo, not least the windows of the Scotsman office in the building, which the same authorities seem to be adverse to cleaning.

But one condition for the successful hawker is that the bird of prey involved does not actually kill a pigeon for fear of "a PR disaster" if it should slaughter one in front of a school party.

It seems to me that this kind of molly coddling, woolly minded thinking is on the same lines as the recent decriers of Action Men toys who believe their return will lead to a nation of killers.

The vast majority of youngsters who visit the parliament eat meat and one hopes study biology so actually seeing nature at work may even be educational.

You have to wonder too whether the people who worry about falconry violence have watched the sort of things children can see on television these days or play on their computers. Seeing an actual death rather than an animated one may give them a few more thoughts about what the consequences of violence actually are.

But, maybe my views are shaped because I am originally a Norfolk boy, quite used to the realities of "cun'ry loif." My first job, when I was five, was on a farm catching and killing chickens by wringing their necks for which I earned the princely sum of £5 in a week. The experience neither left me mentally scarred nor a psychopathic killer.

However, I should say that I did not have quite the same slightly scary determination as this 11-year-old son of a chicken farmer.

David Maddox: Meeting the great unwashed

Gordon Brown and his senior ministers will be in and around Glasgow tomorrow ahead of a full cabinet meeting.

The event is part of an attempt to take government to the people and follows events in other major cities including Birmingham. Of course, it smacks suspiciously of a copy of Alex Salmond's National Conversation initiative of taking the Scottish Government cabinet on a tour of Scotland for its summer recess meetings last year.

But one interesting aspect of tomorrow's events is the question and answer session for the public ahead of the cabinet meeting. This, of course, has not been advertised so Glaswegians or any other Scots who may wish to attend cannot just walk in off the streets.

Instead Mr Brown and his colleagues will have an invited audience. I am assured by a senior Whitehall source that the audience "will not only consist of Labour Party members" be cause it is a government event.

Apparently, what has happened is that an arms length polling company has been asked to find an audience of a suitable balance including some school children and readers of a Glasgow based tabloid and listeners of a commercial radio station have also been selected.

Nevertheless, you get the feeling that there will not be a question about dodgy e-mails and the recently departed spin doctor Mr McBride.

And it seems a long time since a Prime Minister to hear and answer on the views of random members of the public in a genuinely open forum.

The last one to do that in relatively recent memory was John Major in the general election 1992 (see picture top left) when he took his soap box out on the streets, got on it and took on all comers. I knew the Labour party activist, later Portsmouth councillor, John McIntyre, who managed to hit Major with a rotten egg in Southampton, which perhaps sums up the dangers of letting the public too close. McIntyre had to go into hiding for a while after that and was surprisingly coy about talking about his moment of national fame.

Tony Blair only liked to meet invited audiences because of the potential embarrassment caused by angry voters. Famously when he was cornered by an angry woman outside a hospital in the 2005 general election campaign, he was lost for words.

The usual reason for not allowing in the public is of course one of security and terrorism, but such concerns did not seem to bother politicians of the past.

The last Prime Minister to have a cabinet meeting in Scotland was the last Liberal to hold the post, David Lloyd-George in Inverness in 1921. He, like the other leading politicians of his day including his friend and colleague Winston Churchill, regularly addressed mass uninvited audiences despite living in uncertain times.

It should be noted that the auspices of the Inverness meeting are not necessarily good for Mr Brown. A year after his Scottish sojourn Lloyd-George's government fell in a general election, Mr Brown faces the British electorate in the next year too.

Hamish Macdonell - new start for spin doctor

NOT much has been heard about Neil McKinnon, the former spin doctor for the Scottish Liberal Democrats.
McKinnon was a fixture at the Scottish Parliament for eight years before walking away from the party last year.
The Steamie has heard rumours that he might re-surface soon, but instead of politics, he is to move to the arts, as a press officer for the Edinburgh Fringe.
Given the recent travails at the Fringe over ticketing, it may be a much harder job than the general 'herding cats' routine which McKinnon had to do when trying to keep Lib Dem MSPs in order.
But unlike politics, the Fringe only lasts for a few weeks a year.
ends

Gerri Peev: Alien Picts land at Westminster

Stop the press. It appears that administrators at the Overseas Office in the House of Commons have already declared the end of the United Kingdom.

A note from the 17 March on Overseas Visitors to Westminster announces the list of "forthcoming official overseas" guests to the Houses of Parliament.

There are exciting visitors such as five interns from Saskatchewan, select committee chairmen from Iraq, a librarian from New Zealand, Ghanian IT officers, delegations from Georgia, senior representatives from Japan, Inter-Parliamentary Union delegations from Lithuania, the clerk of the House from the Seychelles, a professor from South Africa, an MP from Uganda and the Serjeant at Arms from Western Australia.

There, sprinkled among the exotic guest list, is this note: "Scotland: Visit of the clerks to tehe Standards, Procedures and Public Appointments Committee." Quite fittingly, the date of the visit is April 1.

Northern Ireland is also listed as an overseas country.

Gerri Peev: One in three MPs on the fiddle?

THANK God for Ken Clarke. The Tory High Command had been reminding hacks to get up early to watch the Shadow Business Secretary on the Andrew Marr Show today. This triggered suspicion that this time he would be disappointingly gaffe-free and on-message. Especially after his last appearance during which his words on inheritance tax cuts (that it was an "aspiration" not a pledge) triggered coronaries at Conservative HQ and in the grassroots membership.
This time, though, after a bland start, he came out with this gem on MPs and their expenses:
“We have an exaggerated public view that they are all thieves, they are all rogues, they are all lining their own pockets.
“Two thirds of them, I am quite sure, are doing nothing improper at all," he said, before hastily adding "At least two thirds I hope".
Is Mr Clarke saying up to one in three MPs is a crook?

David Maddox: Labour stir up the ghosts of Salmond's past and present in the hope the future will follow

It may be that they think Alex Salmond (top left), the First Minister is wounded, but two motions went down in Holyrood today which suggest that Labour has properly regained its confidence in Scotland.

The two not only revive the ghosts of recent and long past troubles for the SNP leader, but are clearly aimed at what many consider to be his weak spots - his ego and his grasp of foreign policy.

The first was put down by Lord George Foulkes (top right), Baron of Cumnock, First Lord of the Twittery, MSP to the Lothians, who rather cheekily accuses Mr Salmond of cronyism in office. One wonders if the term "Tony's cronies" for the Blair regime is such a distant memory to the noble one.

However, he has been buoyed by the genuine hit he had over revealing the £10,000 expenses paid to the SNP supporting pop singer Sandi Thom. And let's face it, Lord George and Wee Eck love poking fun at one another.

The second is from Labour's Holyrood business manager, Michael McMahon (left), to remind us of the 10th anniversary of Mr Salmond's greatest foreign policy gaffe. The one where he condemned the bombing of the ethnic cleansing Serbs in Kosovo, allowing opponents to (unfairly) link his party with that sort of behaviour and describing the RAF as the Luftwaffe.

You may remember that the First Minister is sensitive about this and recently described veteran Lib Dem MP and foreign policy expert Sir Menzies Campbell as "a pompous ass" for reviving the same issue at the recent party conference.

The anniversary perhaps allows Labour to have some sort of repost to the constant battering about Iraq, although Mr Salmond's mistake only damaged his reputation, it didn't cost lives.

No doubt they hope that the ghost of his future will follow and visit its curse upon him in the forthcoming elections. Although, perhaps they have forgotten that Scrooge (played famously by Alistair Sim, right), the original one to be tormented by the three ghosts, learnt from his mistakes and had a happy ending.

David Maddox: Time for the banks to show all

Tavish Scott, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader known for once marauding with fellow Vikings through Holyrood (as pictured right), has now turned his axe on another well barred door.

He has an interesting motion down in parliament calling on banks, which are nationalised in all but name, to come under the auspices of the Freedom of Information Act.

His point being that a lack of accountability and transparency is one of the reasons that an industry that has been a source of pride for Scots for more than 300 years was laid low. Bank of Scotland is no more and furious Royal Bank shareholders who at times looked more like a linch mob declared their bank dead in all but name too at their annual general meeting today.

The FOI for banks idea is one that has already been pushed by the Lib Dems down south in Westminster, however, there is an interesting element to Mr Scott's motion. FOI is a devolved matter and the Scottish Government is currently consulting on extending it.

Therefore it is possible that nationalised or largely state owned backs based in Scotland could become subject to FOI if the Scottish Government are inclined to agree with Mr Scott.

Here is the motion:

*S3M-3827 Tavish Scott: Freedom of Information and the Banking Sector—That the Parliament reaffirms its commitment to the principles of openness and transparency that underpin freedom of information legislation; believes that the public has a right to expect transparency from public organisations and from private organisations that perform public functions; regrets that, with the taxpayer holding a majority stake in two major Scottish banks, the UK Government does not allow freedom of information legislation to cover banks that have been bailed out with public funds, and therefore calls on the UK Government to amend freedom of information legislation to include nationalised banks and banks where the taxpayer holds a majority stake.

David Maddox: Remembers the future

I spent part of my morning talking to a group of P7 primary school children (10 and 11-year-olds), about the Scottish Parliament and working here. They were members of a class who were visiting on the Holyrood education programme and it was good to see that the experience of being in the parliament and sitting through 30 minutes of debate had not been an endurance but an interesting experience for them.

I gather some of the class have even expressed an interest in becoming politicians and two of the pupils I spoke to want to be journalists. Another couldn't make up his mind if he wanted to be a policeman or a television journalist and another, who was impressed with the parliament building (until I told him about the leaks and cost), wanted to be an architect.

What it goes to show is that, contrary to popular opinion, it is not the intention of all our youngsters to become footballers, models or reality TV stars. And it should be said that these were not privileged children from a private school, but a pupils from good state primary in Edinburgh.

The experience of visiting the parliament then was a very positive one for them and could help to shape their dreams and aspirations.

The excellent Holyrood education programme which allows for hundreds of school pupils to have this experience each year is unfortunately over subscribed and schools have to book early or not at all more often than not.

Which put a whole new perspective for me on the rather unseemly row yesterday over whether it was right to suspend FMQs or indeed whether the whole day's business should have been cancelled.

Had the SNP got their way (although they claim it was the Presiding Officer Alex Fergusson's idea) and cancelled all parliamentary business yesterday then there would have been nothing but a tour of the building with an empty chamber (pictured above) for those primary school children to experience.

For many that may be their one chance to have that sort of valuable experience and it would have been a shame if they had lost out for want of politicians wanting to make a short sighted decision, which I am sorry to say, seemed to have more to do with headlines than actual sorrow.

As sad as the helicopter tragedy was, people's lives are unfortunately curtailed in accidents almost everyday, yet their deaths are not taken as a reason to bring the business of democracy to a halt.

So while it was appropriate to mark the sad deaths of those 16 men, politicians should remember that life has to go on and that they should remember the living, in particular the children who are our future.

Gerri Peev: Cold comfort at G20

Never have I wanted to kiss the ground so much as when I escaped the Excel centre this afternoon.

Sub-zero temperatures, even colder coffee and a media lockdown. Welcome to the G20, in East London, which seems to have its own micro-climate while the rest of the capital is bathed in sunlight.

The press are not allowed beyond the Yellow Zone in the vast aircraft hangar. Red passes are the ones to get your hands on as they mean access all areas - except, of course, the refreshments. One Downing Street staffer donning these supposedly all powerful red passes walked into the yellow area for a coffee only to be told he was not allowed refreshments from there. When he demanded to know who was in charge, a reply came back: "Sharon".

It was grim early on. A press briefing from Douglas Alexander, the International Development Secretary, attracted the sort of mob that would be the envy of Britney Spears. This is how dire the news situation was. Sketch writers sought even asked to sketch a background briefing, pointing out there was **** all going on for colour. They were even barred from the photo call for world leaders.

Looks like the Germans and French are thankfully stirring up enough controversy to make the day worthwhile now, however. Sarkozy should be putting his stacked boot in nicely before the end of the day.

Tom Peterkin on FMQs

With the sun beaming down on Holyrood there would normally be a pleasant end of term feeling emanating through the corridors of devolved power. Today is the last day of business before MSPs have their two week Easter holiday - sorry recess.
The horrendous events in the North Sea, however, have cast a long shadow over that. At First Minister's Questions the main party leaders united in expressions of sympathy to the bereaved. Alex Salmond gave a strong hint that there is to be a public inquiry into the accident and revealed that most of the victims were from the North East of Scotland.
While Tavish Scott, who as the member for the Shetlands has more experience of helicopters than most MSPs, spoke of the frightening flights over mountainous seas into gale force winds that off-shore workers brave as a matter of routine.
The disaster was quite rightly at the forefront of MSPs' minds, which is more than can be said for some London-based news organisations, who relegated the loss of 16 lives down the news agenda way behind the G20 summit.

Eddie Barnes - Trapped in Summit Land

Sometimes the closer you get to something, the less you see.

Welcome to the vast hermetically sealed aircraft hangar at the ExCel Centre in East London where the world's media are gathered to cover the G20 summit in London. All signs of normal humanity disappeared as we arrived this morning, as we entered Summit Land - like an aircraft departure lounge without the charm. Now, trapped inside, with not even a window to see the outside world, the media is hanging around waiting for something to happen. The only contact with the real planet are the 24-hour news channels which everyone can watch at home - although at least here you can actually wander up to the cameras and watch them live.

Updates so far: there are some very tasty granny smith apples being handed out. The leaders apparently are able to sit on red sofas if they so choose in order to get comfortable. They have just posed for a nice photo. Er, that's it.

You heard it here first.

David Maddox: Keeping MSPs in the picture

Scottish photographer Stephen Scott Taylor has created an interesting online gallery of 30 of our 129 MSPs.
If nothing else it just goes to show that almost anybody can look good in an arty black and white shot whether it is a chisel jawed Finance Secretary John Swinney, matronly Tory leader Annabel Goldie, slightly shifty looking Deputy Presiding Officer Alasdair Morgan or mildly depressed former Labour leader Wendy Alexander.
Green MSP Patrick Harvie looks like he's trying to swallow a cough, while Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott appears to be comatosed.
Former Sports Minister Stewart Maxwell at least looks happy though playing with his balls, which may explain why Nationalist backbencher Christina McKelvie seems so amused.
To take a look click here or see them at the Fine Art Library (within the Central Library), George IV Bridge, Edinburgh.

David Maddox: Are the Lib Dems ready for the fight?

Times are tough, not least it seems for Scotland's political parties.

The Liberal Democrats, who even in their leanest Liberal years could rely on a fair level of support in Scotland, are, according to their website, ill-prepared for the next election, which in theory could happen as early as June.

There are just five candidates listed in the People Section of scotlibdems.org.uk. Even if you add their 12 MPs, this leaves them prepared to fight a mere 17 of the 59 Scottish Westminster constituencies.

The question is whether the financial problems alluded to in recent reports and the low membership base of 5,000 are endangering the Lib Dems of becoming fixed as the fourth party of Scotland. Even the Greens believe they can have a go at overtaking them.

Opponents suggest that 2005's haul of a dozen seats was a high water mark and 2009 or 2010 will merely be a matter of how many they can hold on to.

So is it possible that the limited number of candidates merely reflects a new focused cost effective strategy?

Gerri Peev: Waiting for Gordo - and Obama

Long wait this morning for US President Barack Obama in the Locarno Room at the Foreign Office. Not a grain of coffee in sight.
It should have been a stampede but the early morning must have put off a lot of hacks. Mr Prez himself looked a bit weary. Jet lag and trying to rescue the world will do that to you (or perhaps it was just breakfast with the PM).
Biggest dilemma: Do hacks stand for the US President, or risk looking like they are staging a "sit in" if their US colleagues rise for their head of state? Traditionally, British journalists do NOT stand for the American president. To do so would be deferential. I resolve not to stand. As it turns out, the two leaders launch straight into their statements so there is no time.
Best quote: (From the President Obama): "Don't short change the future because of fear in the present."
One observation: President Obama picked two women and a male journalist when taking questions - all of them wire services.
Brown picked four males, three broadcasters, one tabloid political editor.
The British hacks are overwhelmingly white, middle aged and male in comparison to the more diverse journos who have flown with the President. Wonder if he notices?

David Maddox: Banking on tonight's game

Scotland and Iceland today take each other on in what may still be a crucial group 9 World Cup qualifier at Hampden.
But in reality this is a battle of the banking basement as the previous competitors for the “Best Small Country in Financial Services” now contest for "the biggest bailout."

Scotland, with its proud 300 plus year tradition as sound bankers, and Iceland, the Johnny come latelies of the banking world who turned small financial advice services into major banks in a decade, both ended up on the same scrapheap with their reputations in tatters.
So on April 1, the day we celebrate fools, it seems appropriate to assemble two world beating teams of politicians and bankers from the two countries who played their part in the dramatic matches of the last few months.

This is after all a grudge match for the Icelanders after Gordon Brown impounded their assets when their banks collapsed.

Scotland

Sponsor: The British taxpayer

Home ground: Hamstrung

Goalkeeper: Gordon Brown - Also captain and manager because he doesn't want anybody else to be in charge. Keeps annoying his team mates by referring to them as Team GB and going on about relocating to London in 2012. Perfect candidate for a keeper because he reckons he saved the world, although most people don't even think he can save himself.

Left back: Sir Peter Burt – As the creator of the apparently formidable HBOS team the veteran performer found he was not allowed to return to head the team sheet when it was sold off.

Right back (behind GB): Alistair Darling - Keeps going off to the corner flag and muttering about the worst season since the 1930s. Only useful for bringing on the half time oranges to feed the hungry bankers.

Centre back: Sir James Crosby – Former HBOS team captain, hand picked by Brown to shore up the defence but had too many long lunches and waived the attackers through, arguing that the less defenders tackle the less goals they concede.

Centre back: Sir George Mathewson - Architect of the RBS team hailed as the best ever, until it was discovered it had been taking performance enhancing credit. Not wanted by the HBOS team, but he still is allowed to play in Alex Salmond’s five aside team.

Right whinger: David Cameron – Qualifies through his Scottish grandfather (the one he doesn’t like to mention to his English club mates). Always complaining that he should be the captain. His tactics involve sitting on the sidelines doing nothing in the belief that it will turn the season around.

Left whinger: Alex Salmond - GB would prefer him left back far away. Keeps wandering out of position and trying to wrestle the captain's armband off GB. Dazzles everybody with his twinkle toe moves on spivs and speculators, but then ends up firing the ball into his own net - known as the "open goal mouth technique."

Holding player: Sir Tom McKillop – When the chips are down it is said (by UK government sources) the former RBS chairman can always play keepy uppy with the money just long enough for his old team mates to walk away with it in their pockets. Just ask Sir Fred.

Playmaker: Andy Hornby – Became a crowd pleaser with captivating play that seemed too good to be true in his quest to take HBOS to world glory. Unfortunately it was and his bank became the Accrington Stanley of finance rather than the Manchester United. Now on a loan spell at Lloyds.

(Too far) Forward: Jim "April" Faulds – Former Dunfermline BS captain was fed up with safe mid-table obscurity so changed sport to appeal to a new commercial market. Fell flat on his face and complained loudly when Alistair Darling wouldn’t come over with a large sack of oranges to revive him.

Striker: Sir Fred Goodwin – Former RBS top shot is happiest when he is firing (other people). Likes to play an expansive game. Unfortunately currently without a club after he mortgaged its assets on a has-been Dutch international, but still commands a huge salary.

Stuck on the bench: Vince Cable – graduated in Glasgow and is recognised as the only player around who knows what to do. But his team mates won’t let him on the pitch because his Lib Dem club play too far down the divisions and may not even get European qualification in Scotland in the election in June.

Iceland

Sponsor: Previously Icesave otherwise known as British savers, but more recently the Russian Government.

Home ground: Wreck’ya’bank

Goalkeeper: Geir Hilmar Haarde - dumped as Prime Minister of Iceland after dropping the financial ball in 2008, not even able to save his own country let alone the world.

Left but not back: Björgvin Sigurðsson - Iceland’s first trade minister was the only one to do the honourable thing and quit the team.

Central defence: Jon Sigurdsson - as Iceland Financial Services Authority’s chairman he took a similar view to defence as Sir James Crosby, except with less tackling.

Playmaker: David "playing the odds" Oddsson (Capt) – as prime minister he orchestrated the team’s expansionist style and then as central bank governor he organised the non-tackling defence. Amazingly, was still miffed when dropped from the team sheet.

Central Midfield: Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson – Chairman of the now nationalised Landsbanki, Iceland’s biggest bank, but fortunately knows a bit more about football as the owner of West Ham United.

Diamond geezer formation: Sigurdur Einarsson, Kaupthing bank chairman; Kjartan Gunnarsson, vice chairman of Landsbanki; Larus Welding, Glitnir bank chief executive; and Thorsteinn M. Jonsson, chairman of Glitnir - Impressed the world with their intricate passing of money until people realised that it wasn’t only the ball that was full of air.



Playing in the hole: Paul Carter – Leader of Kent County Council gained residency status for the Icelandic team by leaving £50m of taxpayers’ cash in the country for years even after he was told to get out.

Sweeper: Björk – bringing in a new broom, the pop singer is clearly the only talented player on the park because she does not have any background in finance or politics. Reinvented herself as a venture capitalist to save her country from oblivion, but is likely to walk away with the ball because she does not want Iceland to play internationally any more.

Final result: They both lost.