David Maddox: Lessons in how to play the numbers game

Following my postings on Friday and mention in the comments of an upcoming Scotland-wide Yougov poll, some acquaintances from Labour have been in touch.
It appears they have got their hands on the poll questions and, as you might expect, they have decided to get their attack in early, suggesting that the phraseology of the questions is designed to create a pro-Nationalist result.
In particular they have taken exception to this one:
Given the current economic downturn, who would you trust more to make the right decisions to help Scottish people in their everyday lives, Alex Salmond or Gordon Brown?
They feel that "help the people of Scotland" in a fairer test would be "help us out of the economic crisis."
All of which goes to show the minute detail people on both sides go down to to try to either manipulate or discredit poll results, which may explain some of the spectacular miscalculations of the past in polls.
It perhaps underlines that, in the end, the only poll that counts is the one that involves a ballot box.

For your info here are the poll questions, please feel free to give your answers in the comments section of this posting or on the Steamie Wall:

1. If there were an election to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?
a. Conservative b. Labour c. Liberal Democrat d. SNP e. Some other party f. Wouldn’t vote g. Don't know

2. And thinking about the regional or party vote for the Scottish Parliament, which party list would you vote for?
a. Conservative b. Labour c. Liberal Democrat d. SNP e. Green f. Scottish Socialist Party g. Solidarity h. Some other party i. Wouldn’t vote j. Don't know

3. As you may be aware the SNP government's budget bill was voted down this week. Alex Salmond has threatened to resign as first minister if it is voted down again and has suggested there may have to be a new election for the Scottish parliament. If the budget bill is voted down again and Alex Salmond resigns as First Minister would you prefer:
a. to have chance to vote in a new election for the Scottish parliament?
b. to let political parties decide themselves which party should run Scottish government?
c. Don't know

4. The Scottish budget bill was defeated this week after Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens voted against it. How would you rate the performance of each of the Scottish party leaders in relation to the recent budget process?
Choose from very good, good, average, poor, very poor or don’t know for each of Alex Salmond (SNP), Iain Gray (Labour), Tavish Scott (Lib Dem), Annabel Goldie (Conservative) and Patrick Harvie (Green).

5. Which of the following do you believe would make the best Scottish First Minister?
a. Annabel Goldie b. Alex Salmond c. Iain Gray d. Tavish Scott e. Patrick Harvie f. None of the above g. Don't know

6. Given the current economic downturn, who would you trust more to make the right decisions to help Scottish people in their everyday lives, Alex Salmond or Gordon Brown?
a. Alex Salmond b. Gordon Brown c. Would not trust either of them at all d. Don't know

7. The SNP wishes to hold a referendum on Scottish independence in due course. Voters would be asked whether they agree or disagree "that the Scottish government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state." How would you vote if such a referendum were held tomorrow?
a. YES (i.e. for Scottish independence) b. NO (i.e. against Scottish independence) c. Don’t know d. Would not vote

David Maddox: The numbers game (2)

Just had some interesting data from the Conservatives. They have put together the Scottish samples from the last four polls, which gives a more realistic view of the way things are going because it gives them a sample of around 800 instead of just 200.

The breakdown is as follows:

Conservatives 22% Lab 37% SNP 28% Lib Dems 11%

Using Electoral Calculus's Scottish page that translates in Scottish seats at a Westminster election as:

Conservatives 6 (+5) Lab 40 (-1) SNP 7 (+1) Lib Dems 6 (-5)

The spin doctor briefing to Annabel Goldie (pictured), the Scottish Conservative leader, is that the poll samples show that Scotland is now "a three horse race," which appears to be getting closer to the truth into terms of vote share, but is nowhere near in share of seats.

It is interesting how Electoral Calculus reveals the problems both the Tories and SNP have in breaking Labour's grip on Scotland and the Lib Dems' grip on pockets of Scotland. Even with half the Tory support the Lib Dems come up the same number of seats, the SNP only get one extra seat with six per cent more than the Tories, while the vast majority (two thirds) of constituencies stay with Labour even with only just over one third of the popular vote.

David Maddox: The numbers game

Just had a look at the latest Scottish sample of the Yougov UK poll published today. This has to be taken with a bucket of salt, because it is the opinion of just 206 people, slightly larger than most samples, but not a lot.
According to the results, for a Westminster the news north of the border looks pretty good for Labour, not bad for the Tories, awful for the Lib Dems and crushingly disappointing for the SNP.
Lab 39% SNP 27% Con 21% LibDem 10% Greens 1%
If one puts this through the calculator at Electoral Calculus, in terms of seats this poll translates into:
Lab 42 (+1) SNP 7 (+1) Con 4 (+3) LibDem 6 (-5) Greens 0
Far better for Labour than the 11 per cent gap behind the Tories in England and Wales. Maybe the Iain Gray/ Jim Murphy partnership is doing the trick for them, although same might be said of the Annabel Goldie/ David Mundell partnership with the Tories now regularly getting into the 20s in Scotland.
However the SNP would be a long way off their target of 20 Scottish seats and the Lib Dems appear to be disappearing from the scene, but, as I said, one small sample an election does not make.

Meanwhile Ladbrokes have chopped the odds on the Scottish budget being passed from 1/3 to 1/4. I would suggest that even with these low odds that is free money for anybody who wants to take a punt.

David Maddox: Lochhead loses the spirit of Speyside

Pity the poor Environment Secretary Richard Lochhead (pictured right). There he was enjoying one of the biggest junkets of the year as a judge at the Spirit of Speyside contest sniffing and tasting 40 single malts and he is forced to clear off to take part in some pesky votes.

One thing is for certain, though, his constituents in Moray will not thank him for his sacrifice.
I admit to some jealousy with this, as a judge of the same contest from last year, I had to give up my place because Thursday is Holyrood's busiest day.

However, there were a couple of reasons why he should take part in these votes. The first was on the Forestry Commission which is part of his departmental responsibilities and which the SNP won by one vote.

The second, though, was called in his honour. As mentioned in this blog before Labour took the advice of my colleague Hamish Macdonell's column to test Mr Lochhead's loyalties - constituents vs government career.

The vote was essentially on whether MSPs regretted the failure to include the Elgin bypass in its strategic transport plans for the next 20 years. Since the SNP promise to do exactly that was formally dropped by his constituency neighbour Transport Minister Stewart Stevenson, the MSP for Banff and Buchan, he has continued to campaign for its inclusion.

So was he going to continue to back his constituents and resign after voting against the government of which he is a minister? Not on your life. Ministerial career first. No regrets for Lochhead.

David Maddox: So much for the spirit of consensus

This afternoon Labour dramatically made an offer to support the budget by reducing their demands for new apprentices from 23,400 over three years to to 15,600 over two. Finance Secretary John Swinney (pictured) had offered them 7,800 over one year.

The SNP parliamentary (as opposed to governmental) response was to issue a press release with the screaming headline: "LABOUR CAVE UNDER BUDGET PRESSURE."

This may mean they are going to accept or could mean that they are telling Labour to get knotted. Labour say their talks with Mr Swinney were constructive.

However, they should be grateful that Labour have apparently conceded the 2011 election already. In their release Labour said that they would support the budget with the extra apprenticeships "with an indication from the SNP government to roll on the programme in 2011-12" which is after the election.

Meanwhile Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott was in with First Minister Alex Salmond for more than two hours with apparently a detailed list of proposals, although they are not letting on what they are. However, surely it must be better than the rumours they simply want the scottish Government to formally recognise the Calman Commission and send in a paper on borrowing powers.

The Greens too have been back, but again there is no word of an agreement over that extra £11 million. The word is that Mr Swinney simply cannot find it.

Needless to say, this is set to run into next week and possibly beyond. Read more about it in tomorrow's Scotsman.

Hamish Macdonell - How the mighty are fallen

GORDON Jackson QC, one of Scotland's best-paid, most well-known and feared advocates returned to the Scottish Parliament today as a visitor.
Mr Jackson was, of course, a Labour MSP for eight years, before being beaten in Glasgow Govan by Nicola Sturgeon in 2007.
He used to stride around the parliament like it was his personal chambers - not any more.
Jackson took his visitors' pass and sat in the press gallery, before being reprimanded, severely, by a security guard and warned he was not allowed to be there as he was not a member of the press.
After pleading for mercy, Jackson was allowed to remain, but only if he made sure the pass with a big 'v' on it was visible to all, including all his former fellow colleagues down below.
ends

David Maddox: Hmmmm.... Is a pattern emerging here?

After the spat continues about the Tory leaflet being handed out at Waverley Station this morning accusing Labour of destroying public services etc by leading the defeat of the budget yesterday (see my colleague Hamish Macdonell's posting's earlier today), and Labour's claim that it was all lies, a couple more press releases have come out from the true blues.
The first was entitled: Labour deprives forestry of £3.5m
The second had the equally subtle heading: Labour leads £217.5m transport budget cut
The two releases refer to Labour's two subject debates today in Holyrood. One suspects that every subject they now raise will provoke similar press releases given the potential consequences of their no vote.
At lunch time one Labour spin doctor wryly noted to me: "I don't know if Alex Salmond has put the SNP on an election footing, but the Tories are certainly now on a Westminster election footing."

David Maddox: Shouting the odds on the budget

And here is the latest from our friends at Ladbrokes:
BETTING: Will the second budget be approved by Scottish Parliament? Yes 1/3 No 2/1
Ladbrokes spokesman, Nick Weinberg, said: “There appears to be an appetite for getting things sorted amongst the main Holyrood parties.”
Glad somebody's confident.

Apparently the firm has also seen money for Lord Mandelson (pictured) to be Prime Minister by the end of the year. The Business Secretary is now 66/1, from 100/1, to land the top job, which goes to prove that, even after the lessons of the catastrophic banking collapse, there are still plenty of people out there willing to throw away money.

David Maddox: FMQs - the budget recriminations continue

No surprises, FMQs has been dominated by yesterday's events and the defeat of the Scottish Government's budget.

Labour leader Iain Gray went on the attack and said that there was no sign of First Minister Alex Salmond (pictured) and the SNP losing the "hubris and arrogance" that brought them to this position.

But Mr Gray was himself under severe fire for leading the no vote, especially after he seemed to suggest that Scotland could wait until June for a new budget after the new financial year has started.

A furious First Minister Alex Salmond, his jowels rippling withe rage, said the £1.8 billion lost in the budget would equate to 35,000 jobs. Tory leader Annabel Goldie went on to accuse Labour of trying to "stage a bloodless coup to esconse Iain Gray as First Minister."

But, interestingly, given my posting below, the exchanges between Mr Salmond and Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott were in tone, at least, very conciliatory. None of the personal animosity of the Scottish Inter Faith Council and the truth inquiry of latter weeks. Mr Salmond pointed out that the Lib Dems' (now dropped) 2p income tax cut would lead to a net loss of 600 jobs and had no majority across the chamber even if the SNP were "miraculously" converted to it.

As mentioned earlier, the two are set to have talks. There could be some interesting developments.

You can read all the in depth analysis and Rab McNeil's sketch in tomorrow's Scotsman.

Hamish Macdonell - budget row part II

ACCUSING Labour of "hysteria", the Tories have hit back about their controversial leaflet.
Derek Brownlee, the Tory finance spokesman, issued a rebuttal, stating: "Far from withdrawing this leaflet, we will be printing more. Every Scot needs to know what Labour's package of tax rises and NHS cuts means for them. Labour's vote last night puts them on the edge of the abyss. Scottish Conservatives will be happy to give them a shove.”
ends

David Maddox: Question - When is a principle a non-principle? Answer - When it's a Lib Dem principle

The Lib Dems have dropped their demands for a 2p reduction in income tax in the Scottish budget.

This is after months of their chief whip Mike Rumbles (pictured top right) corridors of Holyrood berating opponents for denying their constituents a tax cut.

The volte face also completely torpedoes their economic strategy as well as their 2011 election strategy. The idea was that they would sell themselves as the party which would leave more money in people's pockets.

Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott (pictured left from his days as a mad viking) hinted at the change on the radio this morning, but senior colleagues have now briefied journalists to confirm it.

So what has changed?

Well, after yesterday there is a new budget to fight for and the Lib Dems see the chance of influencing it. Mr Scott and his finance spokesman Jeremy Purvis have meetings scheduled with Finance Secretary John Swinney this afternoon.

The irony in all this is that the Greens, who in a fit of pique brought the budget down yesterday when they had all but won £33 million in next year's budget to start their free insulation scheme, may now get muscled out by the Lib Dems and get nothing.

Hamish Macdonell - budget row spills outside Holyrood

ANYONE who thinks the budget row is confined to Holyrood should think again. The Tories apparently took the opportunity to hand out leaflets waring that the sky would fall in because of the budget defeat.
According to Labour, the leaflet was handed out at railway stations and on the streets, warning of council tax rises and and the slashing of public sector budgets - all because Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens united to defeat the budget.
Labour immediately took issue, accusing the Tories of spreading lies and demanding the party withdraw the leaflet.
"This is despicable and baseless scaremongering with not one iota of truth. The Tories lost the vote yesterday and have egg on their face," said Michael McMahon, a Labour MSP.
Tensions are still running high, it seems.
ends

David Maddox: Where Thatcher feared to tread

After the high drama of yesterday's budget debate we are back to the more mundane issues of the Thursday morning subject debates. These, as we have learnt with the SNP's support for the Green's £1billion free insulation scheme in November and unwillingness to add it to yesterday's budget, have all the meaning and substance of toilet paper being flushed down the lavvy.

But, interestingly, this morning we start with SNP plans to lease out large tracks of land run by the Forestry Commission for 75 years.

The "creative proposal," as Environment Minister Mike Russell put it, came from Rothschilds, the international financiers, historically most famous for lending money to Benjamin Disraeli to fund the Suez Canal.

Labour have pointed out that the same idea was floated by Rothschilds to Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s and she rejected it as "a privatisation too far."

So there we have it the SNP are willing to go where even Margaret Thatcher balked. However, in their defence this far from being a straightforward debate. Mr Russell has made it clear that he watered down the Rothschild proposal and he argues that this is the only way to fund large scale extra forestation needed to meet Scotland's climate change targets.

The trouble with this row is that it is hard to see the wood for the trees.

David Maddox: Budget - Tomorrow is another day

Well after all the excitement of this truly extraordinary and historic day in Holyrood I'm going to sign off. You can read the in depth analysis and reports in tomorrow's Scotsman.

But needless to say the blame game has already started. Labour have blamed the SNP, the Tories have blamed Labour, the Lib Dems have blamed the SNP, and the SNP have blamed everyone except the Tories and themselves. Funnily enough, anybody who is not in a political party has blamed the Greens.


One interesting point is that somehow, even though their thinking is often different, the Lib Dems have still always voted the same way in Holyrood as Labour on the budget every year since the parliament was reconvened. More and more they look like an extention of Scottish Labour to those not well versed in the machinations of Holyrood, which is reflected in the declining polling ratings north of the border, which in some cases have dipped into single figures.


As one final note, it is clear that the SNP smelt disaster early in the afternoon and were resorting to pretty desperate measures.
This high priority e-mail was sent out by one of their backbenchers Christina McKelvie (pictured) at 2.51pm to her public sector trade union colleagues calling on them to lobby Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray:

I am writing about this afternoon's budget debate in the Scottish Parliament. The implications for Scotland if the Budget Bill is not passed are serious. Section 6 of the 2008 Budget Act would be the legislation which governs such an eventuality. That section can be found here - http://www.oqps.gov.uk/legislation/acts/acts2008/asp_20080002_en_3 In short, it means that the Scottish Government would only be allowed to release, in any calendar month, one twelfth of last year's budget or the amount paid out of the Consolidated Fund for the corresponding month last year. There is no allowance made for inflation. This would leave a shortfall of some £1.8 billion or £150m per month and leave the Scottish Government without the flexibility to spend money to protect jobs and investment.
As you will appreciate, such a situation would jeopardise public sector pay deals; increased funding for the NHS; increases to the local government settlement which would affect the ability of those local authorities to freeze council tax again this year; funding to cut business rates for small businesses; and accelerated capital spending in the region of £230 million. With the economy struggling as it is at the moment, I'm sure you will agree with me that Scotland could ill-afford such a cut in public spending this year. Cuts on that scale would not only affect the pay of public sector workers, they would adversely affect public services and would prevent the Scottish Government the opportunity to ensure that Council Tax stays frozen this year and that prescription charges come down - costs which fall heaviest on poorer members of society.
Can I urge you, therefore, to contact MSPs who you may know and urge them to support the budget this afternoon. In particular I would urge you to contact Labour's Leader in the Scottish Parliament, Iain Gray MSP, and urge him to take his party with him and vote to protect Scotland 's public spending this afternoon.
Yours,
Christina McKelvie MSP

David Maddox: Budget - "It's war!" says Salmond. "If we lose again."

Alex Salmond, the First Minister, has just announced that he has put the SNP on an election footing. His Finance Secretary John Swinney has already resubmitted the budget and they are to have talks with the Greens tomorrow morning. But if it fails next time the SNP government will resign.

David Maddox: Budget drama unfolds

Alex Salmond, the First Minister, and John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, are leaving their bunker. Press conference at 6pm in St Andrews House - the Scottish Government building on the hill overlooking Holyrood.
Will keep you posted as soon as we hear what they have to say.

David Maddox: Budget - Reaction

Patrick Harvie, the leader of the Greens, has said he is "disappointed" with the way the SNP have approached this budget. He says that the matter can be resolved if the Scottish Government can guarantee an extra £11 million for the free insulation scheme.
"It is really a very small ask if you look at the budget as a whole," he said.
He confirmed that it was Mr Swinney's refusal to guarantee the £11 million which led them to vote against.
All the other major players have gone to their bunkers, although one or two stopped by some TV cameras. Fastest of all were Finance Secretary John Swinney and First Minister Alex Salmond who rushed to their offices in the parliament without giving a comment to anybody.
Labour have just told us that the "vote of no confidence" threat was to make sure the SNP do not delay a new budget.
Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader is now briefing journalists. He said: "We have got to this position as a direct result of the SNP's own arrogance and incompetence. They have known for weeks what they needed to do for weeks to get a deal with us or the Greens but the have just played these ridiculous games of brinkmanship. It really is very poor."
He has ratcheted up the pressure. If the next budget fails there will definitely be a vote of no confidence.

David Maddox: Budget - the vote

Here it is: 64 in favour and 64 against. The budget falls for the first time in the Scottish Parliament's history. The Greens have not been bought off. The Presiding Officer has used his casting vote for the status quo, last year's budget. We are now in unchartered territory.
John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, has promised to reintroduce the budget as quickly as possible.
Alex Fergusson, the Presiding Officer, will call a business bureau meeting tomorrow to get a new budget timetable arranged asap.
Iain Gray has indicated that Labour may consider a vote of no confidence in the SNP government.

David Maddox: Budget - John Swinney speaks, yes or no to the Greens?

Green leader Patrick Harvie's amazing piece of brinkmanship was a stunning gamble. If Mr Swinney says "yes" he has won a tremendous victory, but if he says "no" then Harvie and the Greens may go down in ignomy for bringing down a budget and being responsible for the ensuing chaos.
Finance Secretary John Swinney has now spoken. After describing Labour as "pathetic and ridiculous." He had a message for Margo MacDonald and said he has given her what she asked for. She looks less than convinced. He's promised her that he will talk to Edinburgh City Council about pilot schemes on affordable housing.
But here's the key point for the Greens. He "will leaverage in spending
from social partners to increase the amount up to £33 million." Is it enough?
Patrick Harvie speaks: "Can he commit the government will make up the shortfall if the social partners can't?"
Swinney: "The government has said what it has said and will ensure that it happens."
We go into the vote at 5pm still not clear if the Greens are convinced.

David Maddox: Budget - Harvie's twists and turns (3)

The warning of this budget for the SNP is that you should not treat the Greens with contempt if you need their votes, even if there are only two of them and they have offices on the SNP floor.
Apparently Alex Salmond, the First Minister did not bother to contact them today until 2pm and then "only gave them hot air."
The £22 million was then offered in the budget speech, but when the Nats saw Mr Harvie's face, SNP backbencher Tricia Marwick tapped him on the shoulder and passed on a message from Mr Salmond. At that point he left to talk to the First Minister.
Now Mr Salmond and his Finance secretary John Swinney are grimly sitting in the chamber scribbling, possibly working out where they can find £11 million. Half an hour until the moment of truth.

David Maddox: Budget - Margo MacDonald speaks, SNP in trouble

Independent MSP Margo MacDonald has implied she may vote against the budget or at least abstain because John Swinney has not offered enough for affordable housing in Edinburgh at a time when the capital "is facing a social tragedy" in housing.
Support is melting away for the SNP's budget.

Labour MSP Jackie Baillie says that the budget can be passed on February 14 and be well in time for Scotland's accounting timetable.

David Maddox: Budget - Harvie speaks at last

Patrick Harvie has said he cannot vote for £22 million a year for free insulation. He is furious that the SNP have kept him waiting for their final offer until the debate. He has demanded an extra 50 per cent, £11 million, as a bare minimum. He says nothing less than £33 million would allow them to make even a start on the scheme.
He says the Greens will vote against at the moment. That's 64/63 against Swinney. Even with Margo MacDonald's vote the budget will fall on the Presiding Officer's casting vote.
Amazing brinkmanship from Harvie.

David Maddox: Budget - Harvie's twists and turns (2)

Latest is that the Greens are now thinking of abstaining. Talks are going on as we speak with John Swinney and Alex Salmond. But if they do abstain the words of James Mackenzie, the Greens' spin doctor, in the weeks leading up to this debate may come back to haunt them.
He said over and over again: "In the current political mix, an abstention is a vote in favour of the budget without getting any of the credit."

As an amusing aside, Liberal Democrat chief whip Mike Rumbles has just lectured Alex Neil on his lack of spirit of co-operation. This is the same Rumbles who was sent in for the Lib Dems' one and only meeting of budget negotiations on the basis that he was better at walking out in a huff than finance spokesman Jeremy Purvis.

David Maddox: Budget - Harvie's twists and turns

Green leader Patrick Harvie has left the chamber in a rage and has been talking to another hack about the perfidious SNP. Apparently he thinks that with £22 million next year and a long term commitment to his free insulation scheme he is being fobbed off.
Bruce Crawford, the SNP's business manager, has just told my colleague Hamish Macdonell that they don't know if they have a deal yet. The smiles are flickering at the edges and giving way to worried expressions.
Green spin doctor James Mackenzie looks like he has never known stress like this in his life.
But the feeling among the parliamentary hacks is that for having only two MSPs the Greens have been offered a fantastic deal and it would be suicidal for them to vote this budget down.
The bottom line, though, is that there is no deal yet and it looks like Mr Harvie may throw a fit and take Holyrood into the unchartered territories of a failed budget.
As I write, he's walked back in.... what is he going to say?

David Maddox: Budget continues....

I wonder if Alex Fergusson, the Presiding Officer, is being deliberately tantalising. We are all desperate to hear Patrick Harvie, the Green leader, to find out where the two crucial Green votes are going.
But he is yet to get his feet. Ahead of him are some particularly dull and rambling contributions from MSPs like James Kelly (Labour) and Nigel Don (SNP).

David Maddox: Budget - Brownlee speech

Having spent most of the time lampooning Labour for voting against the budget, Derek Brownlee, the Tory finance spokesman, has confirmed that his party will support the SNP today and claimed his party has won "a quarter of a billion pounds" of Conservative policies for Scotland.
As I blog, Jeremy Purvis, the Lib Dem finance spokesman, is saying that the measures in the budget is not enough. If you remember, the Lib Dems wanted a 2p income tax cut through the Tartan Tax variation powers, this would cost £800 million. So that's 63/62 for John Swinney at the moment.
Mr Brownlee has just asked him if all the Lib Dems have achieved is a "zero point zero zero per cent."
We are all waiting for Green leader Patrick Harvie now to see which way he and Robin Harper will go.

David Maddox: Hot from John Swinney's budget speech

The Finance Secretary has offered £22 million in the first year to start off the Green's insulation scheme. That should be the deal clincher, double the SNP's original offer, but only a fifth of the Greens' original demand, nevertheless a fantastic achievement for a party with just two MSPs.
Even more significantly he has given the Tories the credit for a new town centre regeneration fund of £60 million for 2009/10, three times what the Tories were asking for and even more than the £50 million demanded by Labour.
And finally he has agreed to be flexible over where money for new affordable homes will go to bring Independent MSP Margo MacDonald on board. She wants more cash for Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Assuming this is all enough then that will equate to 66 votes for the budget and 62 against. Looks like Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been marginalised again.

David Maddox: Yet more budget latest

And now we think we know why the SNP are all smiles. The rumour is that the Greens have been offered a £30 million a year free insulation programme over 10 years.
This is yet to be confirmed and, as I blog, the top brass of the Greens, all three of them (MSPs Patrick Harvie and Robin Harper and spin doctor James Mackenzie) are ensconced in a meeting to finally decide what to do.
Keep checking the blog folks. We'll tell you as soon as the rumour is confirmed or refuted.

David Maddox: More budget latest

If anything sums up the pressure mounting on Green leader Patrick Harvie then the sight of him eating his soup alone in the canteen with a Newsnight camera pointed a few inches above his bald pate does it. It underlines that his vote and that of his colleague Robin Harper will be crucial. To be fair on Mr Harvie he somehow managed to pretend the camera was not there. Cool under pressure.
But the emotions are beginning to show in other parties. Labour are obviously nervous that this budget may fall. Their group meeting at 12.30pm confirmed that they will vote against and they are busily trying to make sure they are not blamed for the ensuing chaos that will follow a defeat for the Scottish Government.
One Labour spin doctor has just spent most of lunchtime briefing me that SNP Finance Secretary John Swinney may be "deliberately trying to sabotage the budget" in the hope it will damage oppositon parties.
However, if the smiles on SNP faces and their spin doctors is an indicator to go by, then all may be well and a deal may have finally been struck with the Greens, not that they are letting on.
John Swinney will get to his feet to start the budget debate in just under 45 minutes. We will hopefully know then what is happening before the big vote at 5pm.

Tom Peterkin on the price of peace

It is almost a year since I left Northern Ireland where I worked for three years. I missed the worst excesses of the sectarian conflict that blighted that fantastic part of the world. By the time I arrived there were more tourists than soldiers on the Falls Road and the Shankill. Nevertheless, I discovered that the place had not lost its ability to surprise.
The brutal murder of the Sinn Fein official Denis Donaldson after he was outed as a British spy, the decommissioning of IRA arms and the extraordinary deal that saw Ian Paisley go into government with Martin McGuinness were just some of the events that I covered.
Ulster is back in the news today (Wed). There were angry scenes in Belfast with the launch of a report dealing with the legacy of the Troubles by Lord Eames, the former head of the Church of Ireland, and Dennis Bradley, the vice-chairman of the policing board.
The fury was caused by the recommendation that all victims' families - including relatives of republican and loyalist paramilitaries - should receive a £12,000 payment.
Paying the families of gunmen and bombers is a perverse way to come to terms with Northern Ireland's troubled past.
One contributor to the Belfast Telegraph's letters' page told readers that his young police officer brother was shot dead in 1977. Two of the people that killed him are now dead - one on hunger strike and the other killed by his former colleagues.
"How can it be right that the family of the two murderers who shot my brother receive the same as my mother who was left bereaved by their murderous sons' actions?" the letter writer said.
"Have Lord Eames and Mr Bradley no concept of how insensitive and contemptible it is?
"If everyone would just forget who did what to whom, forget Bloody Sunday, forget Bloody Friday, forget Omagh, forget every every damned thing we ever did to each other and live their lives in peace, then maybe we could move on."
The contributor acknowledged that "the families of these terrorists feel their loss just as grievously as the families of the innocent victims".
But he added: "The fact is, there is a hierarchy of victims and no matter what anyone says or does, a dead terrorist will never be seen as a victim by decent people from either community who can tell right from wrong."
Perhaps it would be better for everyone to forget in order to escape from the horrors of the past. But that is far from easy. The monstrous acts of violence that characterised Northern Ireland's recent past mean that far too many courageous and decent people are still seeking answers about the atrocities that have ruined their lives.
This unpalatable £12,000 so-called "gesture of goodwill" will not provide any answers to those seeking justice for their dead loved-ones. Sadly, one suspects that the scars caused by 35-years of senseless violence will remain for some time.

David Maddox: The strange goings on of budget day

As it seems more and more likely that the two Green MSPs will make or break the SNP's budget this afternoon with their demands for a £1 billion free insulation scheme, all eyes have been on them this morning to see what they will do.

All eyes? Well, of course, that is if they can be found. The lack of evidence of Greens in Holyrood this morning did lead to some speculation that Finance Secretary John Swinney may have taken a note from the book of Queen Elizabeth I's spymaster Sir Francis Walsingham who, according to the recent film, locked up some of the Queen's opponents "for their own safety" so they could not vote against her in parliament.

However, I have just exclusively received a picture that reveals that the Green leader Patrick Harvie was apparently making a getaway on an electric scooter this morning, possibly from the press, more likely the SNP. The only question is whether car coming up fast behind him is being driven by Finance Secretary John Swinney.

But stop press! I gather Mr Harvie has returned and will enter crucial final talks with Mr Swinney some time in the next hour and a half.

David Maddox: The trap is set

Labour have sent me a copy of their motion for the transport debate on Thursday. As mentioned in my Inside Holyrood column on Monday, this is aimed at primarily embarrassing the Environment Secretary Richard Lochhead (pictured right).
In his capacity as the MSP for Moray, Mr Lochhead is a longstanding campaigner for the Elgin bypass, which his party promised in opposition would be built. But his neighbour, Banff and Buchan MSP Stewart Stevenson, the Transport Minister, rather let the side down by not including the bypass in the list of projects for the next 20 years.
Mr Lochhead has remained as a minister, but is now apparently campaigning against his own government's transport policy. The motion in the name of Des McNulty, Labour's transport spokesman, is designed to force him to choose between being a minister and betraying his constituents or opposing the government and having to resign as a minister. A similar trap has been laid for Children's Minister Adam Ingram over the Maybole bypass.
Only time will tell if it works.
Here is the motion:

Des McNulty Labour, (Clydebank and Milngavie) (pictured left): That the Parliament notes that the Strategic Transport Projects Review lacks detail on timescales and does not commit the Scottish Government to deliver a programme of expenditure for the vast majority of the projects identified; and accordingly notes the concern of communities along the length of the A82, A77, A9 and A96 that no indication has been given as to when their needs for road improvements will be addressed; and in particular notes the disappointment of people in Elgin, Inverness and Maybole who were led to believe by the SNP prior to the 2007 election that their by-pass schemes would be given priority by an SNP Government, reminds Ministers of the principle of collective responsibility and the need to ensure that communities are not misled about the Scottish Government’s intentions.

David Maddox: For Foulkes Sake (7)

This whole mirky business about cash for amendments in the House of Lords has encouraged the resident Nats in Holyrood to participate in one of their favourite sports - Foulkes bating.

It is not as if the noble Lord George Foulkes, Baron of Cumnock, MSP for the Lothians and would-be Rector of ancient University of Edinburgh (pictured), minds having fun poked at him by the SNP. He seems to positively love the attention.

But with the political world aghast at revelations that four Labour peers were allegedly willing to accepts tens of thousands of pounds to influence legislation, it seemed an ideal opportunity for the Nationalists to raise the issue of Lord Foulkes's consultancy Carrick Court, which helps out the legal firm Eversheds.

The first shot across the bows came on Monday morning from one of my favourite SNP bloggers, Calum Cashley, the party's candidate for Edinburgh North and Leith and researcher in Holyrood. He quoted the following item from the Code of Conduct for MSPs:

5.1.6 The section of the Code on General Conduct (Section 7) sets out the standards expected in relation to acceptance of hospitality, gifts and benefits. In addition to this and the statutory provisions in the Interests of Members of the Scottish Parliament Act 2006, Members:...should not accept any paid work to provide services as a Parliamentary strategist, adviser or consultant, for example, advising on Parliamentary affairs or on how to influence the Parliament and its Members.

He then quoted Lord Foulkes's entry on the register of interests:

I am a director, as is my wife, of Carrick Court Associates Ltd, a consultancy business. Carrick Court Associates receives remuneration of between £45,001 -£50,000 per annum for my work from Eversheds LLP and GovNet Communications (as Chairman of the Editorial Board). I work approx 3 days per month in relation to the consultancy. As a Director of Carrick Court Associates I estimate that I will receive between £15,001 and £20,000 per annum in expenses and dividend. [Registered 24 May 2007, Amended interest 4 July 2007, Amended interest 13 July2007].

"Hmmm..." Mr Cashley concluded thoughtfully at the end of his blog.

Within a few hours the SNP spin doctors were around quietly mentioning to journalists that maybe Lord Foulkes's dealing should be looked into, suggesting that he was breaking Holyrood rules and even hinting that he may be not too dissimilar to the four lords currently sitting on the naughty step.

All this may have been valid had they not tried a similar trick last year when an SNP student activist, Andrew Harlick, made a formal complaint about this to the Standards Commissioner Jim Dyer.

Mr Dyer, the bane of Wendy Alexander, has not been known for holding back when something smells fishy, but in this case he dismissed the complaint because "not only was there a lack of evidence, but there was no evidence at all" to support it.

Lord Foulkes concluded at the time that this proved the complaint was "purely politically motivated." Which, strangely enough, was what he had to say about the latest attack. He says that the Eversheds work purely relates to his House of Lords activities in terms of explaining how things work there.

David Maddox: Definitely no Green shoots of recovery yet for Swinney

The tension over the budget has suddenly and suprisingly ratcheted up today as can be seen in the postings from my colleague Hamish Macdonell below.
But just before calling it a night here, one more call has come through. This time it is from the Greens to confirm that they are extremely displeased with Finance Secretary John Swinney.
They will not confirm that they have only been offered £10 million a year for their free insulation scheme instead of £100 million they want, but a source has told me that their two MSPs will vote against the budget as things stand.
Tellingly the source added: "There doesn't need to be a budget in place until the end of March so there is always time to come back with another one."
With Margo MacDonald unhappy, Labour smelling blood and the Lib Dems as confirmed nay sayers on Wednesday, the SNP need the Greens on board. But if the amazingly relaxed quote above is to be taken seriously then the Greens believe that a defeat for the SNP will not be a disastrous nuclear option and may be the best way to get what they want.

Hamish Macdonell - One more vote lost

JOHN Swinney had better make time in his crowded schedule over the next 24 hours to meet Margo MacDonald.
The independent MSP for the Lothians was on side and was preparing to vote for the budget, giving the SNP a little bit of breathing space on the vote.
But that was before she found out that Edinburgh and Glasgow are getting not a penny more for affordable housing on their budgets from last year.
The Steamie understand she is now going to vote against the budget unless that money is increased.
Apparently Margo spent some of today looking for the Finance Secretary, without success. It might be worth him keeping a look out for her over the next day or so, otherwise he might find the budget vote is an awful lot tighter than he anticipated.
ends

Hamish Macdonell - budget goes down to the wire

THE brinkmanship which has characterised the SNP's budget process for the last two years has got even more tense than usual.
The Steamie understands that John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, rang Andy Kerr, Labour's finance spokesman, twice over the weekend to discuss Labour's budget demands.
Mr Swinney is also due to meet Labour leader Iain Gray tonight to see if the two sides can compromise on the budget.
Labour wants major new investment in skills and apprenticeships in return for its support and the party has made clear to ministers that they will have to be given what they want or they will vote against the budget - they are very unlikely to abstain this year as they did last, to universal derision.
With the Greens also playing hard-ball and refusing to soften their demands for a major investment in house insulation, Mr Swinney needs something to give if he is to get his budget through.
He has apparently promised the Greens £10 million for home insulation when the Greens want £100 million. He will never go as high as £100 million but the Greens want him to raise the £10 million to a more respectable figure before they will consider supporting the budget.
Like Labour, the Greens do not intend to abstain, they say they will vote for or against, but they will not sit on the fence.
It is likely to go down to the last few minutes of Mr Swinney's wind-up speech on Friday. He will try to promise extra in that speech to get one of these two parties in board. If he fails to do enough, the budget may fall.
Then we will be in for recriminations.
ends

Hamish Macdonell - More Tory splits over Europe

THE Tories and Europe just don't go together, however hard they try.
Consider this publication from Belinda Don, who is second in the Conservatives' list of candidates for this year's European election - and someone with a decent chance of getting elected.
"With over 70 per cent of legislation going through Westminster and Holyrood originating in Brussel's (sic), the influence of the European Parliament cannot be over-stated," she said.
No, Belinda, but neither can the importance of spelling, particularly in election publicity.
ends

David Maddox: Sinister developments in the White House as the left seizes power again

Many of my fellow lefties will no doubt share my delight that we can now count the most powerful man in the world among our number.

I am of course referring to the fact that Barack Obama is left-handed, as the picture of him signing the order ending Guantanamo Bay prison camp illustrates.

And according to academic research the return of a southpaw to the Oval Office should be a good thing after eight years of right-handedness from George W. Bush.

Chris McManus of University College London claims that left-handed people as a group have historically produced an above average quota of high achievers. He adds that left-handers' brains are structured differently in a way that widens their range of abilities, and the genes that determine left-handedness also govern development of the language centres of the brain. It has also been argued for a long time that lefties are more creative.

But, one thing is sure is that the hand which a politician uses to write has little to do with his political leanings.

This is underlined in the list of previous US Presidents who were or are lefties which in recent times have included Ronald Reagan and George Bush snr. The first lefty US President was James Garfield in 1881, but this obviously did not go down to well because he was assassinated four months into office. The next two were Herbert Hoover (1929 – 1933) and Harry Truman (1945 – 1953) but five of the last seven now have been lefties including Gerald Ford (1974 – 1977) and Bill Clinton (1993 – 2001).

In terms of British prime ministers we have only had two lefties. One was possibly the greatest, Winston Churchill, the other one of the worst, James Callghan.

However, despite the evidence that left-handedness may be a sign of superiority, we southpaws are still discriminated in every day language. Words indicating evilness and clumsiness like sinister, gauche or having "two left feet" on the dance floor come from an anti-left agenda, whereas right for correct or ambi-dexterous (two right hands) come from a pro-right agenda. How ironic that sinister and gauche would more likely to be applied to Mr Obama's predecessor the right-handed George W. Bush.

Eddie Barnes - Local Income Tax row...round 237.

The main Scottish political story of the day is the revelation in this morning's Times that the boss of HM Revenue and Customs, David Hartnett, is claiming there is "no legal basis" for the SNP's local income tax proposal and that his organisation would refuse to collect it. This rather scuppers things. The SNP was already on the offensive yesterday, accusing the Treasury of "bullying", etc. Cue Holyrood vs Westminster war Round 237.

Who gains from all this custard pie throwing? For the SNP, there are plenty of upsides. First off, the fact that the LIT is unlikely to be enacted will not trouble them too much seeing as a consultation revealed that a large majority of public Scotland is against it. And if it does collapse, they can (a) blame Westminster and the other parties for having blocked it and (b) stress how, as a back-stop, they've managed to freeze Council tax.

For Labour and the Tories, the hope will be that the constant stream of stories about the SNP's LIT plans will keep forcing the SNP to continually defend an unpopular policy, whilst giving them an opportunity to point out how bad it is.

However, as stated above, the SNP can always fall back on that highly popular Council tax freeze as the joker in their pack. There's an argument for saying that opposition leaders such as Iain Gray should respond with his own council tax reform package to blunt the SNP's counter-offensive, but opposition strategists say they want to keep the SNP where they want them - defending LIT. Nor would they want to give the SNP a sighter of their own council tax reforms so long before the next Scottish elections.

Expect a few more rounds in this one before a knockout blow is landed.

David Maddox: So what was more important than knife crime, minister?

As the scourge of Scottish streets was debated in the chamber at the knife crime summit today, readers of the Steamie may wish to know the important events in Canada that made it impossible for Scotland's Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill (pictured) to attend.
His itinerary has been posted out by the Scottish Government:

FRI:
Daytime: Media interviews in Toronto to promote Homecoming
6.30pm: St Andrew's Society Burns Supper, Horizons at CN Tower.
SAT:
Daytime: Visits Pier 21 Immigration Museum, Halifax, Nova Scotia
6.30pm: Digby Board of Trade Burns Supper, Annapolis Basin Conference Centre, Nova Scotia.
SUN:
6pm: The Scots Society Burns Supper @ Westin Novia Scotian Hotel, Halifax, Nova Scotia
MON:
Dayime: Meetings with Canadian Ministers.
12.15pm: Lecture at Saint Mary's University, Halifax. What does the Future Hold for a New Scotland?
Flies back Mon evening

Brown Speaks to The One - Eddie Barnes

So Gordon Brown has finally got his prized phone call from Barack Obama, 72 hours after The One's inauguration. An event with the Prime Minister in Glasgow this afternoon was delayed while Brown waited for his phone to ring. We are told Brown got a full 45 minutes with Obama . "They spoke about the economy, the Middle East and other international issues. The tone of the conversation was friendly and substantive," says a spokesman. To quote David Cameron, presumably Brown didn't tell Obama that this was "no time for a novice".

It now seems increasingly the case that Brown is going to lose out in the race to become the first foreign guest to the Obama White House, with Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel seen as the most likely first footers.
The consolation prize - being Obama's first host - is still up for grabs for Brown however - Obama is due in London in early April for the G20 economic summit.

David Maddox: Why prison works

The only real activity in Holyrood today has been the fascinating debate on knife crime in a specially organised summit in the main chamber.

You will be able to read more detail in tomorrow's Scotsman about the summit, but as a means of background, it was called by the Public Petitions Committee following its reception of a 16,000-signature petition raised by John Muir, whose son Damian (pictured) was murdered by a knife wielding thug 18 months ago.

Inevitably the army of social workers, children's advocates, experts and so on have descended on the summit to push their liberal agenda and squash Mr Muir's call for mandatory sentences for people who carry knives.

The usual litany of excuses for these thugs have been wheeled out - they are disadvantaged, from terrible family backgrounds, prison doesn't work it just makes them worse, they need distracting, we need to understand them properly etc.

As you might imagine for a man who has lost his son, Mr Muir had some harsh words for the "do-gooders and limp handshake brigade." Their concern, in his view, was for the criminal and not the victims.

But the bottom line that seems to have been forgotten in all this is that prison may not be a great place to rehabilitate criminals (it probably should be), but it works because it takes dangerous people young or old out of society and protects the innocent from them. While they are behind bars they cannot be out on the street stabbing people or doing whatever other crime is their forte. True, many other things need to be done to treat this social ill, not least improving rehabilitation, but the protection of law abiding citizens should not be forgotten.

It always occurs to me that the "limp handshake brigade," as Mr Muir has dubbed them, more often than not live in nice areas where they are not confronted by thugs on a daily basis. If they did they too might want them put somewhere out of reach.

David Maddox: Devolution can be inspiring

It is not often that a Scottish political blog will open with a Cross of St George. However, in this case, this is not the flag of England so often reviled by people in Scotland, but the banner on display is to pay honour to a group of guests from Lombardy in Italy who visited Holyrood today.

The red cross on a white background is also the flag of Milan and is usually used as the flag of Lombardy too, although the official one is a green banner with a white flower (also pictured). It just acts as a lesson to remind us that symbols can mean different things around the world and that we should be careful with our prejudices and not leap to conclusions. The Catalonians, recent hosts of Alex Salmond, the First Minister, also fly the Cross of St George. The shared heritage is the Crusades.

However, it was the purpose of the Italian delegation's visit that was interesting. They were press officers for the Consiglio Regionale della Lombardia, translated as the Regional Council of Lombardy, something akin to the old Strathclyde Regional Council in size and influence.

Their interest in devolution brought them to Scotland, visiting Holyrood and The Scotsman to learn more about how it functions. This is because there is a push for devolution in Italy, particularly in the wealthy north where many believe too much money is lost to support the poorer south. It is interesting to note that Italy was only unified in 1861, making it relatively young compared to the United Kingdom's 300 years.

In Italy the party, which is part of the national ruling coalition, called Lega Nord (Northern League), first pushed the independence agenda, but now favours the devolution solution after seeing how successful it has been in Scotland. It used to model itself on the SNP- their leader Umberto Bossi (pictured right) loved the film Braveheart - but now has pretentions to the centre right rather than the centre left.

My guests told me that a recent national referendum on the issue failed because of oppositon largely in Rome and the south, but was strongly supported in the north. They clearly hope that some day their consiglio will be a parliament and devolved government.

All this goes to show that, however much we complain, and however many national conversations of Calman type commissions we set up, the devolution settlement in Scotland is seen internationally as a success and a model to follow and is something of which both Scotland and the UK as a whole can be justly proud.

David Maddox: Budget latest

Just heard that no amendments to the Scottish budget have been put down tonight, even though this was the last opportunity.

We know that there are individual meetings between SNP Finance Secretary John Swinney (pictured) and Labour, the Tories and Greens scheduled for tomorrow and next week. The speculation is that Labour will get something for extra apprenticeships to get people back to work, assuming there are any jobs left in a few months, and the Conservatives will get some money for town centres.

I hear from a senior Nationalist MSP that the Greens will not get nearly enough of the £1 billion they want for free insulation over a ten year to persuade them to vote for the budget, but they may be bought off for now with some pilot schemes.

However, it looks like only the Liberal Democrats, who are stuck on their 2p income tax cut demand, which would take a year to organise anyway before it can be delivered and would mean a cut of £800 million from the budget, will actually vote against.

With no amendments today it means that John Swinney will have to promise changes in the Autumn revision of the budget to get the others to vote or abstain.

Hamish Macdonell - Government of one?

NEVER let it be said that Alex Salmond would ever pass up on opportunity to take the credit for anything.
The Scottish Government has just approved one of the world's largest wave stations for the Western Isles.
Was the announcement made by the energy minister, Jim Mather? No. Or maybe Richard Lochhead, the Cabinet Secretary for the Environment? No. Well, surely then it would have fallen to John Swinney, the Cabinet Secretary for Sustainable Development? No, again.
The First Minister decided this was only an announcement that could be made by him so he squeezed it in before the start of First Minister's Questions.
His spokesman explained it afterwards by saying that it was an announcement of such importance that it had to be shared with the chamber today.
Given that Richard Lochhead was answering questions on the environment in the chamber just an hour or so after FMQs, any normal person would have assumed that that was the best time to announce such a prestigious environmental decision, not rushing it in ahead of the weekly joust with party leaders.
But what this little vignette does show is that, if you are a minister in Mr Salmond's government, its best not to expect the chance to make any really good announcements, you will only end up disappointed.
ends

hospital parking charges - Eddie Barnes

Ministers might want to get a grip soon on the simmering row over new parking charges at hospitals. Under the rules, staff have been told they can park their cars for nothing for four hours, but that they then have to move them or pay £40. I've heard on the grapevine that nurses have been spotted leaving operating theatres midway through procedures to avoid having to cough up. A few alarm bells should be going off in Nicola Sturgeon's office, I'd hope.

Hamish Macdonell - Making the books balance

THE deadline passed today for any amendments to the Scottish Government's budget - without any being tabled.
But this is not quite as clear as it sounds. The budget can still be changed right up until the moment that John Swinney sits down at 5pm next Wednesday at the end of the budget debate.
Swinney can introduce late changes himself and amendments can be put down on the budget motion itself, although these have to be general, not specific spending plans.
So Swinney will hold talks with Labour, the Tories and the Greens tomorrow. Labour wants more emphasis on skills, the Tories want town-centre regeneration and the Greens want money for home insulation.
Swinney will do his best to reassure all three without giving too much away. If he agrees to their demands tomorrow, they will come back with more and more demands every day between now and next Wednesday.
This means the brinkmanship will go on until 5pm next Wednesday but ministes believe they will get their budget.
The bottom line is that, in the current economic climate is anybody really prepared to play politics and block a budget which will do things like accelerate capital funding for infrastructure?
SNP ministers are gambling that the opposition will not take that chance but, as usual, no-one will really know for sure until next week.
ends

David Maddox: Warm front from Iceland

The last thing we heard about Iceland was that its banking system had collapsed taking with it many Brits' savings and large chunks of money belonging to UK councils.
Of course, it is hard to forget that our government's (UK version) reaction to this was to freeze Icelandic assets using anti-terror laws against this peaceful country of 320,000 people. You may recall that it did not go well.
So while Iceland has been removed from the SNP list of "how to be a successful small country," Icelanders are also not exactly well disposed to anything British. Or are they?
It seems that even in this time of economic strife the Icelanders have found a spot in their hearts for Britain, in particular our pensioners.
So as I write a ship load of thousands of warm woolly jumpers and other items of clothing is sailing to Hull to help keep Britain's pensioners warm this winter.
After all, they may not know about banking, although nor do we any more, but the Icelanders are international experts on fish and the cold (see picture on the right).
Apparently an appeal was launched by two radio DJs - Heimir Karlsson and Kolbrun Bjornsdottir - after they covered a story featuring Britain's National Pensioners Convention (NPC), and their warning that up to 1 in 12 pensioners may die this winter due to the drop in temperature because they cannot pay their fuel bills (as the Age Concern advert below left highlights). They were even more shocked to hear that 260,000 pensioners died of the cold in Britain over the last decade, which is most of their population.
Clearly under the probably correct impression that we were too poor or too mean to look after our old folk properly the appeal attracted thousands of items. One nine-year-old girl gathered 37 beautiful sweaters and delivered it to them at the radio station.
As Mr Karlsson put it: "I am sure I speak on behalf of every living soul in Iceland when I say that we looked at it with an utter dismay and total disbelief, how badly the government of the United Kingdom treats its old people.
"The elderly deserve to live their last years enjoying the best of care. They deserve to live in warm housing, free from worries over cold and rising gas bills. The Icelandic people heard about how terribly the UK government treats the pensioners, and could not just do nothing about it!"
Touche Mr Brown!

David Maddox: The business of government (2)

Arrived this morning to discover an e-mail from Kevin Pringle, Alex Salmond's chief spin doctor, regarding the posting yesterday on the Scottish Cabinet watching President Obama's inauguration as part of their official cabinet meeting. Nice to know that the powers behind the throne are reading The Steamie.
In response to me asking why they weren't getting down to the business of running Scotland and sitting around watching TV instead, he had a (slightly tongue in cheek) answer.
"I detected a shared agenda between President Obama and the Scottish Government! - not least on renewable energy," he said.
Perhaps a nod too to my prediction in the blog that it wouldn't take long for our politicians to attach Obama's name to their policies. As ever, the SNP got in first.

Kenny Farquharson: Obama Mia!

Enjoy the inauguration?
At 4pm today I'll be hosting a live online discussion about yesterday's events and President Obama's inauguration speech.
If you'd like to take part, simply log on to www.scotlandonsunday.com and click on my happy smiling face.
See you there!

Tom Peterkin on Salmond and Obama

There was a thought provoking column in yesterday's (Tuesday's) Times. Angus Macleod picked up on an article in the most recent Scotland on Sunday in which we revealed that Alex Salmond has sent an invitation to Barack Obama to a Burns Supper the First Minister is hosting in Washington next month as part of Scotland Week.

Angus remarked that it can only be a matter of time before Obama is invited by someone at Holyrood to learn the words of "My Granny's Heilan' Hame" as he lamented the "small country-itis" that appears to be infecting Scotland.

It has also occurred to me that we are seeing more and more Brigadoonery, tartanalia and shortbreaditis (if those are words) festooned about the place in this year of Homecoming.

Angus went on to say that Obama "would be well-advised to steer clear of the event (the Burns Supper) rather than risk an interminable Salmond lecture on how Scots invented and discovered everything worthwhile and how the whole world is obsessed by a small country on the northwest fringe of Europe".

The contributions offered by Scots to the world (penicillin, the telly, telephone, the Tunnock's tea cake) are surely things to be justifably proud of, although the swaggering "Wha's Like Us" attitude is in danger of being overdone.

On balance, however, I almost prefer that sort of attitude to the talk of ending the "Scottish cringe" that was such a feature of Jack McConnell' s administration. I never knew what the "Scottish cringe" was. Was it something to do with an inferiority complex? In any case, nothing made me cringe more than listening to McConnell blethering on about ending it.

BBC and Barack - Eddie Barnes

Like most people, I instinctively turn to the Beeb for big events like the Obama inauguration, but after the waffle-fest which we endured yesterday, I'm not so sure.
Apart from an excellent background documentary about Obama's rise to power presented by Clive Myrie on BBC 2, I waited in vain for some decent analysis of the day's events. All we seemed to get were dozens of reporters running around the Mall asking people "did you ever think you'd see this day?" (three cheers to the black guy who said "yes") and a stream of guff from the supposed in-house experts as they sought to fill in time. Even the Great Paxo was reduced at one point to asking some random academic: "Did you cry?"

I suppose I would say this wouldn't I, but if you want some good analysis of yesterday's events, buy a newspaper.

David Maddox: The business of government

The Scottish Cabinet meeting this afternoon will be getting down to the serious business of erm... watching television, I have just been told.
Like many of us, the senior ministers want to see the inauguration of Barack Obama and particularly what he has to say in his inauguration speech. New hope, brave new world etc.
I suppose the odds are quite long on him mentioning Scotland and astronomical on him telling the world he will be accepting the new Obama tartan being offered him by the Scottish Tories.
But, while accepting that people like to share these historic moments with friends (assuming all the Scottish Cabinet like one another), if this was so important for Alex Salmond and co, you have to wonder why they did not reschedule their Cabinet meeting and get down to their own serious business of running Scotland?
One thing that is sure to happen is that the name Obama is going to be dropped into lots of speeches to justify various political positions over here with tiresome regularity.

David Maddox: Flight of the bumble bee

On my way into Holyrood this morning I bumped into the ever convivial Green MSP Robin Harper giving a tour of the parliament to a bee expert from Stirling University.
Bees are a favourite subject of Mr Harper's (when he's not playing his trumpet) and Dr Bob Dawson was there to brief him on the importance of bumble rather than honey bees. Apparently they are responsible for more than 50 per cent of plant pollination and are vital in greenhouses with things like tomatoes because of the way they pollinate plants. One of the differences with the honey bee is that they live in small colonies and have different behavioural paterns.
But there are some concerns about the British bumble. Apparently large numbers of bumble bees are being imported from Turkey and could be mixing with the indiginous population.
However, in defence of the Turkish immigrants, they apparently work harder and, unlike the British variety, are willing to keep going through many of the colder months of the year.
You can just imagine the British bumble (something like this Simpsons picture) staying at home with its benefits moaning about how these foreign bumble bees "come here, take our flowers, steal our honey and **** our Queen!"
Meanwhile the industrious immigrants get on fixing British nature's plumbing.
How strange it is that nature so often seems to accurately reflect our lives.

David Maddox: A question of values

While much of the world has been gripped by the events leading up to the inauguration of the USA's first black president, most of the rest have been engrossed in the week's other the big story - Manchester City's offer to buy a young Brazilian called Ricardo Izecson dos Santos Leite, otherwise known as Kaka (pictured), a former world footballer of the year, for £108 million from AC Milan.
So what better time for a delegation of journalists from the Italian region of Lombardy (capital city: Milan) to visit the Scottish Parliament? There is no shortage of football mad MSPs, so when they arrive on Thursday they will no doubt have to field some questions about this subject of world importance.
But the saga does raise some interesting questions about values - both monetary and political. Not least because Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, the owner of AC Milan, dashed back from the Gaza Peace summit to deal with the world record breaking transfer deal and to try to placate angry Rossoneri (AC Milan fans).
While Edinburgh recently saw hundreds on the streets protesting about Israel's bombardment of Gaza, hundreds protested for the last two nights in Milan about Kaka's possible departure. It's a question of priorities and serves as a lesson to never under-estimate the powerful mix of football, sport and politics.
However, the affair poses the inevitable question of what £108 million would be worth. After all spending so much on a luxury does seem a bit distasteful in the current economic climate.
Kaka is well known for his devout Christian faith so the Church of Scotland may be pleased it could just afford him with its annual collection plate take of £108 million (2007 figures).
The sum would also build around 20 primary schools or one seventeenth of a new Forth Bridge.
Manchester City were apparently proposing to pay the 26-year-old £26 million a year. So one Kaka is roughly the equivalent of 945 teachers (based on current average pay), assuming there were any jobs for them in Scotland, or 455 MSPs (let's face it 129 are more than enough!), 290 GPs, 345 dentists or 27 failed banking chiefs (based on former HBOS chief executive Andy Hornby's basic salary).
But, while these analogies are always drawn when the latest story about an exhorbatant transfer fee for a footballer comes around, we have to remember that we still live in a market economy, even if our banks are being nationalised, and it is the market (which is morally neutral) that decides the value of jobs.
No doubt, though, in the ever decreasing circles of the debate in Scotland over how to fund capital projects, the SNP would approve of Manchester City's plan to buy an asset using direct capital receipts from an oil fund. No PFI or borrowing here.
As I finish this blog, I hear the heartening (for a Milan fan rather than a Man City one) news that Kaka and the AC Milan officials have decided to go with their hearts and, unusually in football, not follow the ridiculous sums of money. The deal with Manchester City is off, but no doubt the young man can comfort himself with his £9 million annual salary set to increase to £12 million by 2013.
And just to underline the importance of sport to the careers of politicians, Mr Berlusconi has announced the details on national television, most of which he owns anyway.

Hamish Macdonell - Tavish TV

SOMEONE should tell politicians that its no good going after the 'youf' vote by adopting what they think are young and trendy communication methods.
Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott is the latest to fall for it, launching 'Tavish TV' on YouTube to get his message across.
It might have worked, had Tavish not decided to sit in his MSP's think pod, with a bright sky behind him spouting a complicated polemic about the intricate details of the Inter Faith Council and whether or not its funding had been resolved.
Lord Foulkes (see blogs passim) started this dubious craze, it didn't really work for him and it is even worse for Tavish.
You Tube? Absolutely.
ends

Hamish Macdonell - Too much tartan

THE Tories really don't seem to know when to stop.
Faced with derision this morning when they announced plans to ride in shamelessly on the Obama bandwagon by trying to create an Obama tartan, Tory MSP Gavin Brown has now gone even further.
He has just issued a press release stating: "I am writing to President Obama and I hope he looks favourably on the idea."
It is easy the picture the scene as President Obama enters the Oval Office, West Wing-style, and asks his Chief of Staff: "What's next?"
He is told he has calls waiting from the Presidents of Russia, France and China and, oh a letter from Tory MSP Gavin Brown, which would he like to attend to first?
ends

Hamish Macdonell - You can bank on it

THERE is always somebody who says 'I told you so', whatever the situation and today's latest bail-out of the banks has allowed the left-wingers of Solidarity to ride in, claiming they always wanted to see the banks nationalised.
Tommy Sheridan's supporters (in his self-enforced absence) don't quite go as far as praising Gordon Brown for following their policies of nationalising the banks but they come close to it.
They use today's latest gloomy economic news to call what they really want "genuine people's banks", which would lead to the nationalisation of almost everything else, including, crucially, the means of production.
I guess that's the true sign of a revolutionary, take change in your direction any way you can get it.
ends

Ross Lydall: More on ex-MP's mystery expenses

More on David Marshall's allowances and expenses. The House of Commons library has just provided me with figures for the three financial years from the June 2001 election. Over these three years Mr Marshall, then Labour MP for Glasgow Shettleston (it would later be renamed Glasgow East) claimed £88,049, £117,325 and £107,170. Sounds like quite a wedge.
But to be fair to Mr Marshall, I compared his spending to that of another Glasgow MP, Ann McKechin, now a junior minister in Scotland Office. She claimed £85,014, £96,259 and £113,410 - all told, £17,861 less than Mr Marshall. Read into that what you will.

David Maddox: Telling the truth

When Alex Fergusson the Presiding Officer launched his truth inquiry on Thursday, the opposition parties already had their dossiers ready to send out on alleged SNP ministerial lies.
One of them was claims in the main that Linda Fabiani had contacted the Foreign Office after the Mumbai massacre to ask if the Scottish Government could help. Labour correctly said that no such contact had been made, but this has greatly miffed the SNP because it was apparently not through a lack of effort on Ms Fabiani's part.
As one frustrated Nationalist spindoctor put it to me: "Lord Malloch-Brown (foreign office minister) actually refused to take the call from Linda Fabiani about Mumbai!"

David Maddox: Scotland leads the way

It is not often that Scotland is held up as a paragon of virtue when it comes to efficient government, especially by Kelvin MacKenzie and his fellow Barnett Formula moaners south of the border.
But it seems that some parts of the UK look at Scotland's governance with admiration. In Northern Ireland the ruling Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has tabled a motion for debate at the Assembly on Monday calling for a reduction in devolved departments. Currently, there are 11 devolved departments and 14 ministers there.
And it appears that they have taken a leaf from the slimming down of the Scottish Government by Alex Salmond and the SNP who knocked down the number of departments from nine to six upon taking office.
As one of the motion's sponsors, Strangford MLA (member of the legislative assembly) Simon Hamilton, put it: "When you look at the Scottish example, they are functioning with six down from something like nine. I think that is a sensible target to be going for."

Ross Lydall: Tory reshuffle - and a mini one from the SNP too

David Cameron's reshuffle of the Tory shadow cabinet has just been announced. The big winner, other than Ken Clarke, is Chris Grayling. After dogged efforts on the transport and, latterly, work and pensions briefs, he becomes shadow Home Secretary.
Dominic Grieve moves from shadowing the Home Office to being shadow Justice Secretary. Tory spin doctors deny this is a demotion by claiming that Jack Straw, the Justice Secretary, is one of the few Labour big beasts and, as such, needs a capable shadow.
The main loser is Alan Duncan, who becomes shadow Leader of the House. If he follows the style of Theresa May, this simply involves being rude to Harriet Harman for five minutes every Thursday after she announces the following week's parliamentary business. Nothing wrong in that, but it does little to raise one's profile.
Unsprprisingly, Mr Cameron has been unable to find a seat for David Davis. He was not impressed last summer when his then shadow Home Secretary quit in protest at the "erosion of civil liberties", which divered attention from Gordon Brown's troubles. Expect Mr Davis only to reappear from the subs bench after the first ministerial resignation of a Tory government. He may have a long time to wait.
Meanwhile, the SNP has also conducted a tiny reshuffle of its own. Mike Weir, the party's business, energy and climate change spokesman, is to take a seat on the new energy and climate change select committee, which keeps an eye on Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband and his fledgling department.
As a result, Mr Weir has surrendured his place on the business and enterprise committee, which is the only formal mechanism for MPs to question Business Secretary Lord Mandelson.
SNP sources say the change reflects Mr Weir's interest in energy, nuclear power and climate change issues, and the fact that he sat on the climate change bill committee. It also marks something of a victory for the SNP to secure a seat on the new climate change committee, as small parties tend to lose out at Westminster.
But it would appear to risk leaving the party's seven MPs a bit light on the big issue of the day, the economy, as they are not represented on the Treasury select committee either. This is the vehicle through which Labour MP John McFall, as its chairman, has found himself in constant demand from the media. The SNP are not normally seen missing a PR opportunity and, yes, the party's Westminster finance spokesman Stewart Hosie is prolific, but this appears a rare false move in these troubled times.

Hamish Macdonell - Putting a kilt on it

THE award for the worst, truly the worst attempt to hitch a ride on the Barrack Obama bandwagon came from the Scottish Tories today.
If asked, President-elect Obama would undoubtedly say: "The Scottish who?"
But nevertheless, two MSPs Murdo Fraser and Gavin Brown, have decided to offer the new leader of the free world his own Obama tartan.
They are even holding a photo-shoot to publicise their event, going to a kiltmaker to discuss the possibility of creating an Obama tartan.
Shameless? That doesn't even come close to the gall of the third largest party in a small, devolved legislature in a distant part of Europe "inviting" the President-elect to Edinburgh to receive his own tartan.
Their justification for this extraordinary attempt to 'put a kilt on' a global story, it is "in recognition of his reported Scottish ancestry, traced back to William the Lion (1165-1214)."
Please, no more.
ends

Ross Lydall: Mystery remains over ex-Labour MP's expenses

ONE consequence of the Government's wish to exempt MPs' expenses from freedom of information legislation is to further delay the truth surrounding the final claims made by the former Labour MP David Marshall.
Mr Marshall stood down as MP for Glasgow East last June on grounds of ill health, sparking a shock SNP victory in the subsequent by-election. Conspiracy theories quickly emerged that Mr Marshall - and the Labour party - had been facing embarrassment with the imminent disclosure of eye-wateringly large claims, potentially involving Marshall family members, and that this was a factor in his sudden decision to quit.
Mr Marshall certainly had "form" in claiming large amounts. He claimed £363,080 in the three financial years to March 2007, though his claim in 2006/7 was about £6,000 below the Commons average for the year.
As of today, Parliament is yet to publish MPs' expenses for 2007/8. Normally they would have been released in the autumn. The release of these figures will largely depend on what happens next Thursday, when MPs - and peers - vote on Harriet Harman's proposals to free parliamentarians from the obligation to make public their receipts.
In the interim, we remain uninformed about how public money was used by public servants, and sleights against Mr Marshall cannot be proved or disproved. Justice delayed is justice denied, as campaigners often say.
Time will tell whether justice has been denied to Mr Marshall - or to his former Glasgow constituents, who remain in the dark about whether they were taken for a ride.

David Maddox: At last an MSP willing to speak for Israel

Last week I bemoaned the fact that many of our pro-Israel MSPs were too reluctant or being blocked from taking part in a debate on the ongoing crisis in Gaza.
In particular there were Labour and SNP MSPs who I know to be pro-Israel, who were silent on the issue, as sadly they often are in these all too regular circumstances.
But since I posted that blog one at least has come out and expressed his view - step forward, again, the the noble Lord George Foulkes, Baron of Cumnock, MSP for the Lothians and would-be Rector of Edinburgh University.
It seems that the good Lord's silence until now had something to do with the Rectoral election, especially as there is a strong pro-Palestinian group at the university and one of the champions of the Palestinian cause, the Bethnal Green Respect MP George Galloway, is also in the running.
Lord Foulkes as already been targeted for his membership of the Labour Friends of Israel, with some apparently quite gratuitous suggestions that his affiliations make him something akin to being a murderer.
But now the Lord has spoken. In the commentisfree section of the Guardian's website he has talked about his experience in 1999 as the UK minister responsible for helping the Palestinians.
The reflections make interesting reading from somebody who has actually been to Israel and Palestine and done something out there, rather than the usual pontifications of the ignorant who have no real experience at all. They are though - as one might expect in an election - balanced, careful and guarded.
Anybody wishing to read his thoughts should click on to this link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/15/gaza-middleeast

Ian Swanson - Question of Truth

HOLYROOD is suddenly gripped by a new row and a new buzzword - veracity.
Presiding Officer Alex Fergusson took everyone by surprise yesterday when he announced at the end of First Minister's Questions that he was responding to a "growing sense of frustration" among MSPs by ordering an unprecedented inquiry into the "the veracity of members' responses and how that is best policed".
Mr Fergusson was careful not to base his statement on any specific response or any particular issue.
But it followed another exchange between Alex Salmond and Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott over whether or not the funding issue facing the Scottish Interfaith Council had been "resolved" when Mr Salmond said it had.
Labour then published a "Pinnochio file" claiming to show the First Minister had repeatedly made inaccurate statements inside and outside the chamber.
Mr Scott described the launch of the inquiry as a warning shot across Mr Salmond's bows and said he would be making a complaint against Mr Salmond under the Ministerial Code.
Last night, Mr Salmond raised the stakes, announcing he was referring the complaint - before it was even formally lodged - to the former presiding officers Sir David Steel and George Reid for adjudication under the new procedures he set up for handling such complaints.
The First Minister says he is "extremely confident" of his position and has "nothing whatsoever to fear from independent scrutiny".
Whether the inquiry by the standards committee or a ruling by the ex-presiding officers will be enough to deal with MSPs' "sense of frustration" remains to be seen.

Eddie Barnes - The splits that don't matter

How good is the financial crisis for Gordon Brown? Imagine a parallel universe, where the FSTE was still heading towards 6000 points. The Prime Minister would be in the mire . Two clear cabinet rifts are there for all to see today - over today's announcement to build a third runway at Heathrow and the moves to part-privatise the Royal Mail. Health Secretary Alan Johnston is clearly opposed to the latter, while large chunks of the parliamentary party are opposed to both. But the splits are unlikely to lead to any suggestion that the government is in chaos, as it would in normal times, because the far bigger story about the possible end of Western capitalism trumps them all. And imagine what we grubby hacks would have made of David Miliband's provocative speech to be given today, (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jan/15/miliband-war-terror) denouncing the 'war on terror', were we still in 'leadership crisis' mode....

Cabinet Ministers who were considering resigning in August are now of the view that they must get their shoulders to the wheel "in these difficult times". Quite how long the disquiet within Labour ranks about Brown's leadership will remain subdued is up for debate however - Euro elections in June anyone?

David Maddox: The Butler did it!

Labour MSP Bill Butler (pictured) has just intervened in a debate on health board elections to ask Tory MSP Jackson Carlaw what sort of champagne he was drinking.
Whilst Mr Carlaw gives the appearance of being a man of great extravagance, it perhaps is a bit rich from a man who has just made the headlines for trying to claim back a £1 charity donation, even if it was an accident. Mr Carlaw was either too gentlemanly or ill-informed to point this out.
But, to be fair on Mr Butler, he is entitled for some leeway because today's debate on the first stage of the bill to allow direct elections to health boards and its probable conclusion is the culmination of many years of hard work on his part in spreading democracy in Scotland.
His attempts to get direct health board elections were thwarted by his own party in government who were unwilling to take on the opposition to the idea from Scottish NHS boards themselves. The boards seem to believe that they should only be held to account by the health secretary.
With this bill being put forward by the SNP the principle of a minority of board members being elected will be tested in a pilot scheme imposed on an unwilling health board.
Any reporter who has dealt with local health campaigns (hospital closures, maternity unit closures etc), will know that health boards throughout the UK, not just Scotland, have a woeful record in having meaningful consultation with the public and being properly accountable to the people they serve.
So perhaps Mr Carlaw's champagne should be used to toast Mr Butler.

Ian Swanson - Bridge afternoon

THE row over how to pay for the new Forth Road Bridge will take centre stage at Holyrood this afternoon.
Opposition parties called last week for a full debate on funding the new crossing after the SNP said it would go ahead with its plan for conventional procurement despite the UK Treasury's refusal of its request to borrow money from future budgets so the cost could be spread over 20 years.
The SNP said it would be "delighted" to have a debate and it was promptly scheduled for today.
There will be the predictable to-ing and fro-ing between the parties about the evils of PFI schemes, the failure of the Scottish Futures Trust to offer an alternative, the scrapping of the tolls, etc, etc.
But questions have also been raised within the past few days about the design and capacity of the new bridge - and these could also make their way into today's exchanges.
In cutting the cost from £4bn to £2bn, the government has reduced the bridge from three lanes in each direction to just two and cut back on some of the surrounding road infrastructure, as well as designating the existing bridge for public transport.
Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy, who is convening a meeting later this month involving both Finance Secretary John Swinney and Treasury Minister Yvette Cooper, says he wants to make sure we get "the right bridge at the right price".
Strictly speaking, the design of the bridge has nothing to do with Mr Murphy. But his comment is seen as reflecting wider concerns.
And despite the SNP's insistence the bridge will be completed "on time and on budget", Edinburgh West MSP Margaret Smith has told the Evening News today that she fears the scheme smacks of the Holyrood building project.

David Maddox: The strange case of the Scottish Inter Faith Council money

Before I finally sign off for the day, it is possibly worth relating one episode that happened in Holyrood today, which vexed many of our elected representatives.
No less than five points of order were made about an answer Alex Salmond, the First Minister, made to Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott in First Minister's questions last week.
The issue was over the funding for the Scottish Inter Faith Council. Mr Scott asked why it had not received any funding and why staff had been notified of redundancy.
Mr Salmond stood up and, without even looking at his notes, said it had been resolved, the SIFC would get its money and no staff would lose their jobs. This completely wrong-footed Mr Scott and made him look rather foolish, much to the mirth of Salmond and his faithful followers.
But it emerged quickly that it was not poor research from the Lib Dems that had led to this apparent gaffe. An e-mail went to SIFC staff just before FMQs saying they would have to renegotiate and the author of that e-mail, SIFC convener Major Alan Dixon (Salvation Army), sent another e-mail to Mr Scott the evening after FMQs saying it had not been resolved.
It seems that the final agreement was made yesterday, but the SNP maintain that it was really done and dusted by Justice Minister Fergus Ewing before Christmas.
Today Mr Ewing made a "point of order" stating that point and later correspondence from Mjr Dixon from January 6 before FMQs on January 8 confirming this was passed around.
Counter points of order were made by Mr Scott, his predecessor as Lib Dem leader, Nicol Stephen, and Labour's Richard Baker. All said that as the matter was only resolved yesterday it was clear, in their view, that Mr Salmond had misled parliament.
The Presiding Officer, Alex Fergusson, gave his stock answer that ministerial answers were not his responsbility but was part of the ministerial code which is policed by Mr Salmond.
Mr Fergusson said he would reflect on the issue and possibly make a statement after voting if there was anything to add. He did not, so we can assume there wasn't, even though Independent MSP Margo MacDonald in a fifth point of order earlier had suggested he was responsible for maintaining standards in parliament.
It has built up some momentum for parliamentary rules to be changed to try to force ministers to apologise if they mislead MSPs in the chamber.
But as one final addendum to the whole sage, the SNP spin doctors have let slip that the real problem was that SIFC was asking for £360,000 next year, triple its previous grant of £120,000.

From all this the following conclusions have been made by various observers:

1. Mr Salmond should not have hidden behind a junior minister today and made a statement himself.

2. Either Mjr Dixon is very confused or he was trying to be clever by playing one party off another to get an awful lot more money.

3. Mr Scott has been made to look a fool even if he was possibly misled.

4. It is not entirely clear if the misleading was done by Mjr Dixon or Mr Salmond or if there was any intentional misleading at all.

5. Parliamentary rules do need to be changed to make ministers more accountable for what they say and give the Presiding Officer, even if he is reluctant, a stronger policing role.

6. Alex Salmond cannot be expected to police himself or other ministers through the ministerial code and an independent body or commissioner may be required.

7. When all is said and done SIFC have enough money to continue and nobody will lose their jobs, which has to be the bottom line in all this.

David Maddox: Poor timing

We are in the middle of the first budget debate of the year. It is also the first debate where the one minute warning from the Presiding Officer for when MSPs are running out of time has been stopped.
No doubt this is because of pressure from broadcasters who were fed up with "one minute" booming out in the middle of decent quotes.
But what it has meant is that many of our MSPs, including some front benchers, have not had a clue when they were supposed to finish only for their m,icrophone to be cut off in mid-sentence.
The official report tomorrow will show some interesting ends of speeches and should perhaps end with "..." in many cases.
Not least was Tory finance spokesman Derek Brownlee whose last words in his speech were: "Let us now here the case against..."Against what? We may never know, he was literally cut off in mid-sentence.
I guess some have not practised their speech beforehand for timing and others have been caught by interventions, but for an important debate it is a bit of a mess.
The reason speeches are timed out is to stop Westminster style waffling, but conversely, it means that, unlike in the Mother of Parliaments, there are few if any Holyrood speeches that will be considered great pieces of oratory.

David Maddox: Laying down the rules

This is a posting for the Scottish political train spotting class.
The morning's Scottish Government briefing to journalists has finally clarified the rules on what happens with budget votes in terms of the Presiding Officer Alex Fergusson's casting vote.
Mr Fergusson has a duty to support the status quo, which is different to convention in Westminster where the Speaker supports the government.
So if this afternoon there is a tied vote, which until yesterday's decision by Labour to not oppose the budget at this stage looked possible, Mr Fergusson would support the Scottish Government. This would be done on the basis that at this point the budget is being discussed, so he would vote to support the continued discussion.
The tricky moment for the Scottish Government comes on the third and final stage vote on January 28. This is the stage where Labour are threatening to join the Lib Dems to vote against the budget and the Greens have suggested they might vote against as well if they do not get their £1 billion free insulation scheme.
If all three parties banded together and the Tories and Independent Margo MacDonald backed the SNP there would be a tied vote- 64 each.
In these circumstances Mr Fergusson would have to vote down the budget on the basis that discussion was over and the status quo is the 2008/09 budget.
All in all it means that opposition parties are better holding their fire for as long as possible, but that their only real weapon is the political nuclear option.

Gerri Peev: Cameron signals Top Tory is Osborne and Out

Scewered. Kebabed. Roasted. Just some of the verbs used by colleagues to describe the treatment meted out to Shadow Chancellor George Osborne. The recipe is unveiled in this morning's Sun newspaper. In an interview with David Cameron, the Tory leader reveals he sees William Hague as "my deputy in all but name and people need to know that."

Ouch, which people did he mean? His best friend George? In the joint interview Hague adds: "I won't tread on George's toes". Indeed why bother inflicting more pain when they have effectively kneed him in the groin.

Cameron protests a bit too much when he says that "William, George and I work incredibly closely together...It doesn't reflect on George's position, absolutely not."

Hmmm... Ménage à trois are rarely seen as long-term arrangements. No doubt Osborne will reflect the extent of his betrayal in a few years in a teary-eyed TV interview when he will confirm "There were three of us in that marriage".

Eddie Barnes - Cameron's new map

One thought on David Cameron's announcement yesterday of plans to re-draw and cut the number of UK constituencies. David Mundell, his shadow Scottish Secretary was at pains to insist that this would not affect Scotland any more than anywhere else in the UK. I think I'll take that with a pinch of salt.

Clearly the Tories would love to cut some more Scottish seats. I wonder whether the Calman Commission - the body currently reviewing the powers of the Scottish Parliament - might not give them their excuse. Calman is expected to recommend further transfers of power from Westminster to Holyrood and if Cameron, as PM, agrees to it, couldn't he make the quid pro quo a further cut in the number of Scottish MPs? Wouldn't there be a convincing case to be made that, as MSPs gained in power, Scottish MPs should acknowledge their reduced status with a cut in their number? I put this to a very senior figure in the Tories yesterday who smiled and deflected my query.

Watch out Scottish Labour MPs......

Ian Swanson: Budget battle postponed

IT looks as if the SNP's budget will pass its first hurdle fairly comfortably today after Labour signalled it was ready to vote in favour of it in the Stage One vote this afternoon.
Labour sources insist the party is only doing so to allow the budget process to continue - and they warn they are still prepared to vote against the SNP's package in the final vote on January 28 if they feel it is not worthy of support.
Labour says it wants to see more included in the budget to help boost jobs and training and help get the economy through the economic downturn.
But the SNP argues the budget, with its £230m of accelerated capital spending, has been drafted specifically to respond to the current problems and boost recovery.
The Liberal Democrats are almost certain to vote against the budget this afternoon, the Tories are widely expected to support it and the Greens are likely to back it or abstain. But Labour's support means Finance Secretary John Swinney can relax - at least for today.

David Maddox: Budget goading

The verb to goad comes from the word for a big stick used to prod cattle in a certain direction and whilst the Tories may not care which direction their Lib Dem opponents go they have certainly decided to bring out a big stick to beat with them with over their position on the budget.
For those of you who need reminding, the Lib Dems have not exactly been negotiating much over the budget because they want a 2p cut in income tax using the Scottish Parliament's tax varying powers. The SNP oppose this because it would take £800 million from the Scottish budget.
Now you might expect a party that wants to reduce public spending by so much to not have a wishlist for extra spending. You would be wrong, claim the Tories. They have published a 91 item wishlist worth £8.3 billion which the Lib Dems have put their names to since Tavish Scott became leader in September. That's tenfold the savings they need for their tax cut.
The Lavish Tavish List includes £1 billion for the income tax cut, £1.8 billion for having a bigger new Forth Bridge, £330 million for extending paternity leave, £300 million on new dentists. The list really goes on and on.
The Lib Dems have of course hit back, calling it the Tories' "dodgy dossier"and say it is riddled with errors. A spokesman also suggested that it was a diversionary tactic away from the fact that the Tories have appeared to be asking for so little for them to support the SNP's budget.
The interesting point to this is that it very much sums up the supporting act in the two bouts that are going on in Holyrood. The headline act is the battle to be number 1 between Labour and the Nats, while the Lib Dems and Tories are locked in the battle to be number 3.
It's all a far cry from when the Tories were the biggest party in Scotland decades ago and the more recent pre-2007 election claim by the Lib Dems that they could be the biggest party in Holyrood.
If last year's by-elections are to be taken as evidence it is a battle the Tories are winning by dint of not being completely squeezed out by the two big parties and also their extra Holyrood seat from the 2007 election.
The two are also positioning themselves as the party of tax cuts for the 2011 Holyrood election. The Lib Dems want this to fall in income tax, the Tories in council tax.
All this matters, of course, because in a parliament of minorities even the Greens two MSPs can hold sway.
The first budget vote is tomorrow (Wednesday), but expect far more fun and games by the time the final vote takes place on January 28.

Kenny Farquharson: Mike Russell's power nap

A few weeks ago when the SNP announced it was moving into a new party HQ, I was reminiscing about the Nationalists' old base in North Charlotte Street.

If those walls could only speak...

A friend who is an SNP activist emailed me over the weekend with this reminiscence:

Here's a tale from the Charlotte Street HQ.

The morning after the 99 elections Mike Russell was catching 40 winks on one of the sofas in the "media suite" (sic).

Someone popped their head round the door. "Sean Connery here to see you Mike"

"Aye, right," said Mike and went back to sleep.

Ten minutes later, the same now anxious head appeared round the door. "Mike, wake up, Sean Connery is here. Downstairs in the hall. And you are keeping him waiting".

One rumpled, half asleep, bemused and shame faced CEO fell down the stairs to find truly that Sean Connery was standing, patiently, waiting to discuss the election results with him.

He hadn't wanted to come up in case people were busy..

Anyone with any other memories? Add to the comments on this post or email me on kenny.farquharson@scotlandonsunday.com

Ian Swanson - Women-only shortlist expected

LABOUR Party bosses are due to decide today whether to have a women-only shortlist when it comes to choosing the party's candidate for Edinburgh East at the next general election, when Gavin Strang will stand down.
The local party has made clear it would prefer an open contest, but there is a widespread expectation the Labour NEC will rule in favour of women-only.
That would leave former Edinburgh Lord Provost Lesley Hinds as the frontrunner, assuming she decides to go for it.
She has so far remained silent about her intentions, but has not been shy about her support for an all-women shortlist.
She says: "We have no women MPs in Edinburgh and there are very few in Scotland. My understanding of Labour Party rules is that if a seat becomes vacant there should be a women-only shortlist unless there is some special reason. As far as I’m aware there are no special circumstances in Edinburgh East. I’m sure there would be plenty good women would be interested.”
Other women whose names have been mentioned as possible contenders include three city councillors - Norma Hart, Angela Blacklock and Maureen Child - as well as lawyer Carol Fox, sister of Scottish Socialist Party leader Colin Fox; former trade union official Lesley Sutherland; and ex-councillor Lezley Cameron.
If the NEC were to decide in favour of an open contest, constituency secretary Mike Robb, former student leader Rami Okasha and councillor Ian Murray are all expected to throw their hats in the ring.
Gavin Strang, MP for Edinburgh East since 1970, had a majority of 6202 at the last general election. But the seat is no longer viewed as safe following the SNP's victory in the equivalent constituency at the last Holyrood elections.
The Nationalists already have George Kerevan - one-time Labour councillor and now Scotsman associate editor and fellow blogger on this site - in place as their candidate.

David Maddox: What's in a name? Well quite a lot actually..

The Lib Dem gaffe referred to by my colleague Hamish below may have actually had a bit of wishful thinking about it.
Lord Primrose - the one Lib Dem health spokesman Ross Finnie wrongly thought had been appointed to chair the Hep C inquiry - is actually the name of the Earl of Rosebery.
The current incumbent is the seventh in the line, but his father, known as Harry, was a Liberal MP and his grandfather was a Liberal prime minister from 1892 to 1894, whose government was shortlived because of unionist opposition to his devolutionary domestic policies.
So as a self proclaimed Liberal in the Lib Dems, one wonders if there was an element of harking back to the (very) old glory days of his party for Mr Finnie.

Hamish Macdonell - What's in a name?

ROSS Finnie had better hope he does not come up before Lord Penrose in court any time soon.
The Lib Dem health spokesman put out a release today welcoming the Judge's appointment to head the Hep C inquiry.
Unfortunately, Mr Finnie welcomed the appointment of Lord Primrose to the inquiry, not Lord Penrose.
It was corrected by the Lib Dem press office soon afterwards but that's the trouble with emails, once its out there its impossible to get back.
A bit like blogs, I suppose.
ends

Hamish Macdonell - Labour's car-park gaffe

IN the ongoing war of brinkmanship over hospital car-parking charges (SNP says it will abolish charges in non-PFI hospitals, opposition says it will do more), Labour has taken the ultimate step.
"Labour will abolish hospital car parking," declared the Scottish Labour website today.
And while this decision to axe all car parking completely might appeal to the Green vote, it will probably not go down too well with nurses, doctors and patients who have to take their cars to hospitals because Labour re-located them all to the outskirts of our towns and cities and converted their previous city-centre sites into offices.
I am sure there should have been a "charges" at the end of that headline, but it must have got lost in the system - much like Labour's sense of humour, no doubt.
ends

David Maddox: By George not another one!

I have just been told that "Gorgeous" George Galloway, the Scottish exile and Respect MP for Bethnal Green, is intending to run in the election for Rector of Edinburgh University.
You can read about the ins and outs of Rectoral race in tomorrow's Scotsman, needless to say it's going to be an exciting one this year.
But some Labour sources are suggesting that their former colleague may be using this university election as a launching pad for going for a Scottish seat after promising to retire as MP for Bethnal Green following his ill-judged Celebrity Big Brother antics.
It has to be said that one of his opponents for Rector is his old colleague the almost equally flambuoyant (by Scottish Parliament standards) Lord George Foulkes, Baron of Cumnock and Labour MSP for the Lothians.
This has led to some mischevious speculation that with a nod to George III, a collection Georges must be a "madness."
One thing is certain though, in terms of winners, to paraphrase the film Highlander, there can only be one and it might not even be somebody called George.

Ian Swanson - Free parking

WHEN Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon announced the abolition of hospital car parking charges, Edinburgh Royal Infirmary and two other PFI-operated sites were excluded from the move.
It would have cost just too much to buy out the contracts, the government explained.
But this morning Labour backbencher Paul Martin is launching a consultation on a proposed member’s bill to make it illegal to charge for parking at any NHS site, including PFI hospitals.
He doesn’t go into details about the cost or consequences of buying out contracts, but says it would be up to health boards and the Scottish Government to implement free parking.
But even before Mr Martin officially launched his proposal, SNP Lothians MSP and former GP Dr Ian McKee put out a press release accusing him of hypocrisy.
He says: “It beggars belief that Paul Martin is now calling for an end to these parking charges - it was a Labour Government who introduced them.
“The SNP has opposed PFI from the outset for this very reason. It lumbers hard working Scots with long term debt they do not want and ties them into contracts which continually to tax the public for private profit.”

Borrowing Powers - Eddie Barnes

The SNP Government is issuing quite an effective release for the Sunday papers tomorrow (apologies if this is breaking the embargo). It has listed all the various public bodies which say the Scottish Government should get borrowing powers. They include the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy, the Royal Society of Edinburgh, the Scottish Council Foundation and the Church of Scotland. The SNP's point is that if they had borrowing powers they wouldn't be forced (having ruled out PFI) to go down the public procurement route for the new Forth Road Bridge crossing, a decision which looks set to leave them broke for about three years.

This is an argument which may find more traction than the SNP's demand for an advance for the bridge from the UK government. The reason the Scottish Government doesn't have borrowing powers is because the Treasury has always opposed the idea of relinquishing control over the UK's borrowing targets. It fears that if the Scottish government got borrowing powers it would spend money like there was no tomorrow thereby ruining the UK figures. But now that Gordon Brown's golden rules have become a token of history and with Treasury borrowing set to hit £119bn in 2009-10, I wonder whether this position can still be held.....

But there are some questions to be put to the SNP as well. The only reason the organisations quoted by the SNP today have declared their position on the question of borrowing powers is because they have been asked to by the Calman Commission - you know, that Unionist conspiracy which the SNP has decided to boycott. Today, however, the SNP is using the evidence it has gathered to back up its position. Ah the irony.....

David Maddox: First Lord of the Twittery (aka For Foulkes Sake 6)

He may look like a congenial old(ish) buffer whose idea of modernity may not stretch further than the introduction of the wireless, but the Baron of Cumnock, Lord George Foulkes, MSP for the Lothians, can lay claim to being the most cyber active politician north of Hadrian's Wall.
I gather his lordship has become the first member of the upper house to become a twitter, which has a slight irony considering that many of his opponents have long thought he was that without the last "ter".
It seems having his own Facebook page, Youtube TV channel and blog were not enough for him.
And I'm realiably informed that this is the form of communication that is going to outstrip Facebook in 2009. Apparently twitters tweet, which is to put out lots of quick messages about themselves or whatever interests them of no more than 140 characters.
I understand many politicians have already become twitters, so much so that there is a special tweetminster website - http://www.tweetminster.co.uk/ - where MPs happily tweet to one another.
Whilst we are at it, there is also another new bit of cyber wizardry available for those who want to hold ministers to account.
Visitors to http://www.yoosk.com/ can post a question to anybody and if enough people ask that question of the same person, the website will go and ask the person in question. Not surprisingly it is dominated by political questions and has had responses from UK ministers including Foreign Secretary David Milliband, who sent in video replies. The quality of the answer is then rated by users of the site, just in case the politicians think they can get away with one of their traditional fob offs.
Currently no Scottish ministers have been held to account this way, but one suspects it is only a matter of time before it happens. Take this as a warning Alex Salmond.
By the way, if you wish to tweet or become a twitter go to http://www.twitter.com/.

Ian Swanson: Today's excitement

TODAY'S main political excitement - if that's the right word - is the publication of the Scottish Government's Budget Bill for 2009/10.
It includes £232.5m of accelerated capital spending, £90m of which will be shared between Scotland's 32 local authorities.
Finance Secretary John Swinney says the package will help Scotland weather the economic storm, protect around 4700 jobs and boost propsects of a strong recovery.
Meanwhile, he promised on the radio this morning to keep talking to other parties to secure enough votes to get the package through the Scottish Parliament.
In these difficult economic times, there's probably not a lot Mr Swinney can offer in return for support. But the Tories, Greens and Margo MacDonald are open to persuasion.
Mr Swinney said yesterday the government would have to leave office if the budget is rejected - an echo of last year's threat by Alex Salmond to quit if the budget was defeated.
No doubt there is plenty scope for bargaining and brinkmanship before MSPs finally vote on the latest package - but at the moment the resignation of the government must look unlikely.

Gerri Peev: Porn barons' bonkers request

If you thought it was mad for the uncompetitive US car industry to demand a bail out, what about the founder of Hustler wanting to hustle some cash out of the US government?
Magazine publisher Larry Flynt and Joe Francis, chief executive of Girls Gone Wild (as opposed to Boy Gone Mad) have issued a joint plea for Congress to er, pump 5 billion US dollars (£3.3 billion) into their industry. Confusingly, Mr Francis said the money was to “just to see us through hard times”.

It seems that the appetites of usual purveyors have been deflated by the economic downturn.
Mr Flynt said: "With all this economic misery and people losing all that money, sex is the farthest thing from their mind.
“It is time for congress to rejuvenate the sexual appetite of America. The only way they can do this is by supporting the adult industry and doing it quickly.”

One assumes that the porn barons are teasing and it is highly unlikely that Barack Obama will allow himself to taken for a ride.

Hamish Macdonell - Tsars, tsars the more

ROLL up, roll up anyone for a tsar?
The Scottish Parliament will be advertising three solid public sector roles tomorrow with weighty salaries attached.
Three of Scotland's army of tsars are to be replaced, Alice Brown as Scottish Public Services Ombudsman - or complaints tsar - Kathleen Marshall as Commissioner for Children and Young People - or children's tsar - and Jim Dyer in his role as Scottish Parliamentary Standards Commissioner - or Holyrood tsar.
Given that the private sector is looking more and more precarious, competition for these state-paid roles is expected to be fierce, particularly as the Salaries range from £83,000 for the complaints tsar to £38,000 for the Holyrood tsar - but that is only for a part-time role.
It also emerged yesterday that take-up of a new public holiday among members of the Scottish Government was very high, at 93 per cent.
Most civil servants and officials took their St Andrews Day holiday a holiday, let's not forget, that only they get.
Not that we're bitter in the private sector, oh no.
ends

David Maddox: Why are some MSPs silent on Gaza?

MSPs have moved on to an emergency debate on Gaza. I may be underplaying the Scottish Parliament's international influence, but I supsect this debate called by Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has more to do with the need domestically to be seen to say something on the grim events in the Middle East.
However, what interests me is how one-sided these debates always end up being. Almost all the speeches condemn Israel for the dreadful events and the rare attacks on Hamas, a terrorist organisation that started this latest conflict, come in for fierce criticism.
Certainly there is no doubt that the Israeli Government's reaction to the mortar attacks has been disproportionate, appalling and rightly condemned, but they are definitely not the only culpable party.
Only two Tories - Ted Brocklebank and Jackson Carlaw - have pointed out that Israel is a small state under siege by larger neighbours - one of which, Iran, is trying to get nuclear weapons -which are committed to its annihilation. Hamas, they correctly say, is also dedicated to the destruction of Israel and Jews and funded and armed by Iran.
They also point out how many of the attacks on Israel in this country are anti-Semitic and have led to an increase in assaults on the Jewish population here. Anti-Semitism does exist in Scotland. One of the most chilling and unforgettable responses I had to a story on the web was when I wrote about Holocaust Education Trust trips from Scotland possibly being cancelled by the SNP government. The comments were removed by the Scotsman because of the anti-Semitic content in them, but it was also the moment when some of the regular cybernats allied themselves with anti-Semites and Holocaust deniers.
But the fact that only two Tories were able to say this underlines the misnoma that support for Israel comes from parties of the centre-right and Palestinians from the parties of the left and centre-left.
Yet I know of several MSPs in the centre left parties - certainly in the SNP and Labour - who share and, at least in one case, have stronger views in support of Israel than Messrs Brocklebank and Carlaw.
The question is why do they never raise their voices in these debates? Is it that they are ashamed of their views or that party managers prevent them from expressing them?
On such subjects where frankly the Scottish Parliament has little influence these debates should be beyond the party managers' control and MSPs should have the courage to argue their beliefs so that we can have a more balanced discussion.

David Maddox: Good auspices for Homecoming Year

The auspices for the Homecoming Year look good if the desperate attempts by our politicians to take credit for it can be taken as weathervane on how well it will go.
As I blog the Homecoming 2009 is being debated in the main chamber in Holyrood. To remind those who do not know this is the idea of encouraging expat Scots, people with Scottish heritage and those with an affinity (liking or interest) in Scotland to come home this year. It has, of course, been timed to coincide with the 250th anniversary of the birth of Burns.
But almost every politician who gets to his or her feet seems to want to take party political credit for the idea.
Tourism minister Jim Mather has pointed out that the SNP government is pushing it forward and making it a key part of Scotland's economic recovery. Lib Dem Ian Smith has pointed out that the original idea came from former Lib Dem MSP Donald Gorrie and was in the Lib Dem 2003 manifesto. Labour MSP Margaret Curran has credited former Labour First Minister Jack McConnell for taking the idea up and getting it going. The Tories must be feeling a tad left out.
This rush to take credit for the idea can only mean that despite the economic turmoil in the world they think it is going to be a great success.
Part of this is what Nationalist MSP Roseanna Cunningham described as the "silver lining of the dark cloud of the collapse of Sterling." In other words Euro zone, North American and Australasian homecomers can look forward to cheap holidays in Scotland this year.
Hopefully the optimism is well founded, but it will be interesting to see that if come December there is a similar rush to take credit for the year. That will be the real political test of success.

Ian Swanson: Sentencing debate

MSPs will this afternoon debate the SNP's plans for tough community sentences to replace jail terms of six months or less.
Experts are generally agreed short prison sentences are pretty useless because they do not allow enough time for serious rehabilitation. And statistics show those jailed for six months or less are more likely to be re-convicted and sent back to prison than those given community sentences.
With Scotland's prison population at record levels, the case for a rethink on sentencing policy seems clear.
But Labour has joined the Tories in attacking the SNP plans, claiming it will mean more criminals on the streets and echoing the Conservative jibe about "soft touch Scotland".
However, former Labour First Minister Henry McLeish chaired the independent Prisons Commission on whose recommendations the SNP's plans are based. And on the radio this morning he complained there was "too much political rhetoric and not enough emphasis on practical reform".
He admitted that in his Westminster days he had wanted to prove he was tougher on these issues than other parties, but said Scotland's record of incarcerating more people than almost any other European country could not be regarded as a success.
Mr McLeish suggested a few weeks or months in jail was no deterrent for many people and work in the community offered more genuine punishment as well as an opportunity for payback and rehabilitation.
It will be interesting to see if his comments influence the attitude on the Labour benches.
But Mr McLeish also had a message for the SNP about the need for proper resourcing of the new community sentences. "The Government has to recognise this is not a cheap option," he said.

David Maddox: Lib Dems get ready to Rumbles

There used to be a rule among English cricket selectors that they should always pick bowlers to the suit the conditions for swing, spin or pace. It did not stop them losing with a monotonous regularity but somehow it made sense.
The same could be said of Tavish Scott's apparently strange choice of personel in his budget negotiations with the SNP. Instead of sending in his spinner - finance spokesman Jeremy Purvis - to weedle out a clever agreement he decided to rely on the less subtle tactics of his chief whip Mike Rumbles, who, if he were a bowler, would have a stock delivery of bouncing the ball at pace straight towards his opponent's chin.
Now I understand that Mr Purvis was not best pleased to be sidelined, but it was clear for all that the Lib Dems had no intention of striking an agreement with the Nats, thus the choice of Mr Rumbles.
The issue at stake here is that Mr Scott announced in his first week as Scottish Lib Dem leader that he wanted a 2p cut in income tax using the Scottish variable rate. This would mean a cut of £800 million in the budget which the SNP have made clear they will not countenance. It also means the Lib Dems cannot ask for new money for new projects so there was really little to discuss.
Mr Rumbles has been striding around Holyrood for weeks now berating opponents for not supporting the cut, so will have relished the chance to wag his finger at Finance Secretary John Swinney.
It may be the training he received in the army where he became a major, but his usual style made it difficult for most of us to believe the earnest pleas of the Lib Dem spin doctors that "he went into the meeting willing to be constructive."
I understand the meeting was short and went as planned for the Lib Dems: MR entered. MR demanded that JS accepted a cut in personal tax. JS said no. MR stormed out. Job done.
But even though Mr Scott may have picked the right bowler for this particular wicket, the question is, like the old England cricket team, will they still end up losing?

Gerri Peev: Brown must bank on long term rate rise

ON a regional tour this week of just about everywhere except Scotland, the PM has said he is “determined during this period of time that inflation is low, interest rates will be low and that’s the best way of stimulating the economy.”

Leaving aside the fact that investors are scared away by low rates, the PM has to be careful not to promise too much on the interest rate front from an independent Bank of England.

More importantly, one only has to look across the pond to read the runes (or should that be ruins) to see that rates could go up perhaps sooner that many would like.

The Congressional Budget Office (stay with me) forecasts that America's debt will reach a whopping $1.186 trillion this year. This does NOT take into account the massive $775 million stimulus package the Obama administration will unleash to try and kickstart the economy.

The President-elect warned today: “Unless we take decisive action, even after our economy pulls out of its slide, trillion dollar deficits will be a reality for years to come.”

What does this mean? Well high debt levels put pressure on inflation, in turn encouraging policy makers to raise rates.

If Brown prolongs the election for too long, he could be entering a contest with high costs of borrowing as the background. He has been warned.

David Maddox: For Foulkes Sake (5)

As yesterday was 12th night or Epiphany to give it its proper title, like many other people around the Christian (and materialistic) world I took down my Christmas decorations. It gave me a chance to take one last close look at the various Christmas cards I received and one in particular caught my eye.
The card in question was from Lord George Foulkes, Baron of Cumnock and list MSP for the Lothians, with an illustration of old men buying peerages. The picture is the famous Fountain of Honour cartoon by Stranger Prichard depicting the scandal of former Liberal Prime Minister David Lloyd George selling titles. It is now part of the House of Lords art collection.
It took little to remind me that the most recent cash for honours scandal involved the government in which Lord Foulkes served as a minister and lead to Yates of the Yard questioning a certain Anthony Charles Lynton Blair of 10, Downing Street, Westminster. So all in all it shows a remarkable ability of the good Lord to be able to laugh at one of his party's darkest moments.
There is of course no suggestion that the Baronacy of Cumnock was purchased through any means other than hard work and steadfast loyalty.

Ross Lydall: What's Next for Darling and the stagnant economy?

Gordon Brown, being the tribal politican that he is, was always found wearing a plain red tie. He has since gravitated, guided no doubt by his wife, Sarah, to purple.
Alistair Darling tries to express himself with the occasional stripey, multi-coloured number. That plan was slightly derailed around the time of the Pre-Budget Report when Jack Straw, the Justice Secretary, sported the same tie - as they sat virtually side by side on the green benches of the Commons, looking like a couple of schoolboys.
Still, this was not as bad as a recent Prime Minister's question time, when Hazel Blears, the Communities Secretary, and Chief Treasury Secretary Yvette Cooper wore identical black and while skirt-suits. It is difficult to know which woman felt more embarrassed.
None of the above appears to shop in Next, and after the comments this morning from its sharp-suited chief executive, none is likely to be keen to patronise its stores.
Simon Wolfson, whose profile has risen dramatically over the last year, shared the prestigious 8.10am slot on the Today programme with Marks & Spencer chairman Sir Stuart Rose.
What would have made uncomfortable listening for the Cabinet was Mr Wolfson's assessment of the impact of the 2.5 point cut in the rate of VAT, announced in November by Mr Darling and due to last 13 months.
“I think it was a missed opportunity," Mr Wolfson said. “If it was designed to boost expenditure, then it really has had no effect whatsoever."
'Nuff said. The VAT cut is costing £11.1 billion (£12.4 billion less the extra duty on booze and fags). According to Mr Wolfson, it's money down the drain.

David Maddox: Bad trains or Tory troubles?

There was a bit of mischevious speculation this morning amongst the Scottish political press pack at what might be irking Annabel Goldie.
The face of the Tories' Scottish leader looked like thunder when she came into a briefing at the Eric Liddell Centre on Holy Corner in Morningside on the economy chaired by Chris Grayling, the party's Shadow Cabinet spokesman work and pensions.
The top table - Ms Goldie, Mr Grayling and Shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell - had come in 15 minutes late and it was noticeable that Ms Goldie was not her normal cheery self and barely looked at Mr Grayling. Afterwards the two left separately to go to the same private engagement.
Ms Goldie's aides told me that she was simply frustrated at being late and annoyed with the poor train service which was apparently the cause of her tardiness.
But the talk in the press pack was that Mr Grayling had brought a message from David Cameron that Ms Goldie and the Scottish Conservatives needed to up their game and given a minimum number of seats to win in the next general election or face the consequences.
If that is true, it's probably a little unfair on Ms Goldie who has seen her party make steady progress from a very poor position against a background of historic Scottish antipathy towards the Tories through the use of niche issues on justice and business support. However, it is not nearly as spectacular as some would like to see and in comparison to the Tory recovery in other parts of the UK it looks very slow indeed.
Needless to say Ms Goldie was able to talk through whatever irksome problems she had this morning with Mr Mundell at her favourite haunt which, as regular readers of Alba will know, is the Pizza Express opposite the Scotsman.

Bridge in a Spin - Eddie Barnes

The row over the building of the Forth Road Bridge has highlighted what we might call the SNP's diversion strategy, one patented by messers Mandeslon and Campbell. In order to remove attention from one issue you really don't want people to focus on (in this case, your failure to guarantee the building of a bridge and other related capital projects) you simply kick up a media-friendly scrap elsewhere (the Treasury's "refusal" to pay for it all).

John Swinney isn't a mug so he will have known that his request for an advance from the Treasury to the pay for the Bridge was going to be unsucessful. But getting money wasn't the point of the letter. The point was to put the Treasury in the position of saying "no". In other words, the intention was to change the political frame within which this row developed - from a story about the apparent failure of the SNP's Scottish Futures Trust to a story about the "London's" customary negative attitude to "Scotland".

The UK Government - in the guise of Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy - has cottoned onto this strategy. They has realised that it depends, in part, on them playing up to their role of the arrogant London bully-boy. So now their tone has changed to one of obsequious politeness. Yvette Cooper's letter to Swinney, telling him to go swing, expressed a desire to be constructive, it offered meetings, it was free of any lecturing tone. In its cloying insincerity, it could have been written by Uriah Heep.

So what will happen now? A meeting will take place. Salmond and Swinney will attempt to characterise their request as a common sense request for cash. Murphy and Cooper will regretfully shrug their shoulders and say they can't help. The strategic battle being fought will be about who can come across as the most reasonable.

What we don't know is what the reaction of the public will be - who will get the blame for the impasse? Labour or the SNP? In these unchartered times, with two governments running one country, no-one really knows.

Hamish Macdonell - New spin doctors

TALK of the Steamie at Holyrood today is that the Tories have a new Scottish spin doctor.
STV's Mike Crow has gone over to the "dark side" as its known in media circles, by joining the world of PR and spin.
He is to become the Scottish Conservatives Director of Strategy and Communications: quite a job title, quite a job and quite some move for one of the country's longest-serving political correspondents.
ends

Hamish Macdonell - New Year, old battles

MSPs gather back at Holyrood this week for the start of the new term.
This week's parliamentary business appears fairly routine but, hanging over everything is the row between the Scottish Government and the Treasury over the funding of the Forth Road Bridge.
John Swinney, the Finance Minister, is seeking urgent talks with Yvette Cooper, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, in an attempt to persuade her to give him some flexibility in how to pay for the bridge.
The initial signs for Mr Swinney are not good. Ms Cooper has already flatly rejected his plans to spread the payments over 20 years and she is unlikely to move any further, particularly as the two have already clashed publicly over the SNP's local income tax plans.
Mr Swinney may have to find room for compromise somewhere if he wants help from the Treasury, that's how business is done.
Otherwise he had better be prepared to fund the new bridge out of the Scottish Government's rather limited coffers.
There is though, a possible solution for Mr Swinney. The Calman Commission (a unionist plot, according to the Nats) is looking at the issue of government borrowing and may well recommend that the Scottish Government be given borrowing powers.
That would get Mr Swinney out of this Forth Bridge-sized hole but, to do so, he would have to back the Calman Commission and its findings - something no SNP minister has felt able to do so far.
But then again, tough choices, compromises and difficult decisions are what ministerial life is all about ...
ends

SOS Cartoon

Speculation lives on! - Eddie Barnes

The markets may lack the confidence to speculate in hard cash these days, but the newspaper industry (political wing) is suffering no such crisis judging from today's papers.

First there are claims that the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, is considering a second bail-out of the banks, now that it appears the first one last year hasn't done the job. Then there is talk that he might also create a national "bad bank" where all the High Street banks' toxic assets will be thrown, leaving them cleansed anew. A careworn Treasury official pointed out to me that it is difficult to deny such stories completely when Darling has already declared that he will "consider all options" to tackle the credit crunch. In other words, the story is true, but the key word is "considering".

Second, there is speculation of a Lib-Lab pact, based on an article written by LibDem shadow chancellor Vince Cable talking up the benefits of a national government. Presumably, one of the benefits of this idea for Vince Cable is that Vince Cable would be a key member of it, preferably at Number 11. I have my doubts, not least because LibDem leader Nick Clegg is said to be unenthused.

What's more, a national government would be a rotten idea. The last thing the country needs right now is an echo chamber. For if Mr Darling is preparing to lavish billions more of taxpayers' money to solve the financial crisis, surely we need opposition politicians more than ever, to cast a stern eye over this eye-watering expenditure? Especially those like Mr Cable, who have a proven knack for hitting the nail on the proverbial head....