David Maddox: The Numbers Game (26) - Mind the gap
Following up from my post late last week on the Yougov samples, I have been handed the data for the Scottish samples of the last three Yougov polls. It makes fascinating reading.
Con: 22.3% Lab: 35.6% Lib Dems: 13.3% SNP: 23.3%
This certainly makes interesting reading regarding signs of a potential comeback for the Tories in Scotland and the problems the Nationalists have recently experienced. Having said that the difference of just 1% is hard to believe.
Now, the usual health warning about smallish samples being averaged out applies here, but what is interesting is that the total number of people asked is 566.
This larger than the sample which the SNP keep quoting from a recent Ipsos Mori poll of those who would definitely vote, which was around 500 and put them two points ahead. They were behind if you took the total number.
I have run the above numbers through the two online predictors now available.
ScotlandVotes, which The Scotsman is the media partner for and which I will now regularly quote, has the following (difference with 2005 in brackets):
Con: 5 (+4) Lab: 38 (-3) Lib Dems: 9 (-2) SNP: 7 (+1)
In this scenario the Tories gain Dumfries & Galloway and Edinburgh South off Labour, and Argyll & Bute and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk off the Lib Dems.
The SNP take Ochil & South Perthshire off Labour.
My usual predictor, Electoral Calculus, comes up with a similar result.
Con: 6 (+5) Lab: 37 (-4) Lib Dems: 9 (-2) SNP: 7 (+1)
The only change here is that the Tories would also gain Stirling off Labour.
Of course, it will all be different on the night, but the fun and speculation will no doubt continue until 25 March or 6 May 2010.
Con: 22.3% Lab: 35.6% Lib Dems: 13.3% SNP: 23.3%
This certainly makes interesting reading regarding signs of a potential comeback for the Tories in Scotland and the problems the Nationalists have recently experienced. Having said that the difference of just 1% is hard to believe.
Now, the usual health warning about smallish samples being averaged out applies here, but what is interesting is that the total number of people asked is 566.
This larger than the sample which the SNP keep quoting from a recent Ipsos Mori poll of those who would definitely vote, which was around 500 and put them two points ahead. They were behind if you took the total number.
I have run the above numbers through the two online predictors now available.
ScotlandVotes, which The Scotsman is the media partner for and which I will now regularly quote, has the following (difference with 2005 in brackets):
Con: 5 (+4) Lab: 38 (-3) Lib Dems: 9 (-2) SNP: 7 (+1)
In this scenario the Tories gain Dumfries & Galloway and Edinburgh South off Labour, and Argyll & Bute and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk off the Lib Dems.
The SNP take Ochil & South Perthshire off Labour.
My usual predictor, Electoral Calculus, comes up with a similar result.
Con: 6 (+5) Lab: 37 (-4) Lib Dems: 9 (-2) SNP: 7 (+1)
The only change here is that the Tories would also gain Stirling off Labour.
Of course, it will all be different on the night, but the fun and speculation will no doubt continue until 25 March or 6 May 2010.
Labels: David Maddox, polls
posted by Administrator at
15:23
7 Comments:
That would be an extraordinary result. I'm sceptical about it, but bear in mind the UK media will be running a Brown v Cameron election story, alongside the more nuanced coverage from the Scottish media.
How much do you want a bet David?
Already the talk I am hearing is of using tactical voting to make Scotland a Tory free zone in order to prepare for incoming Tories at Westminster if that is the scenario we have to deal with.
Tories gain? Aye right.
How much?
Observer,
As you are anonymous it would be pretty difficult to have a proper bet with you.
Tory gains? Yes I think they will, but it may be from one to two.
James,
Even proper polls should have health warnings but you are right about the Cameron v Brown factor, it could marginalise some parties including your own.
- David M
I'll put a pint behind the bar for you David in a pub of your choice if the Tories get wiped out. My opinion is that you don't like 'em any more than I do, and you are putting wind up sails.
Good for you (on this occasion).
Why is anyone surprised by these polls?
By definition, 50% of Scottish voters are right of centre.
I've never believed that the Scottish "centre" is significantly to the left of the rest of the UK; look at the uptake of council house sales and privatisation issues for evidence.
So where have all these shy Scottish Tories been?
Some, bizarrely, have defected to the Nats.
Many have been too embarrassed to admit to being Conservative since the party has been in such disarray since 1997.
But this is something I've been expecting for a while - as the party at UK level appears more and more confident, united, sorted out and above all as *winners*, more and more shy Tories will return to the fold.
The figures aren't surprising.
The Tories (with their wee allies) were the dominant Scottish party in the 1950s and remain the only party to have achieved a majority of the Scottish vote.
There are a number of reasons for the Tory decline, such as the reluctance to give up on sectarian appeal (I remember an English Tory - himself a Catholic - being shocked at the attitudes of some Scottish Tories) but the fact is that as the Utter Hebs and other regions show Scotland remains in sizeable part a conservative country. There is a sizeable group of Scots who have remained Conservative with a large 'c'; and there are probably more joining them.
David,
If wishes were horses......
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