David Maddox: The Numbers Game (25)
I have just been handed some analysis from the Scottish samples of the last two Yougov polls, which comes from about 400 people.
The usual health warning about polls in general and combining polls in particular, but the results are beginning to show a certain degree of consistency.
That is that Nationalist support is going down, Labour is regularly in the low to mid 30s and the Tories are stuck around 20 per cent, while the Lib Dems are in a desperate battle for survival.
The data shows:
Con: 20.5% Lab: 35% Lib Dems: 16% SNP: 23.5%
My guess would be that the SNP vote is probably higher, whereas the Labour and Lib Dem vote is in reality a couple of points each below what is shown in this data.
However, should election day have this breakdown, then Electoral Calculus suggests the following results for Westminster in Scotland with change from the 2005 election in brackets:
Con: 4 (+3) Lab 38 (-3) Lib Dems 10 (-1) SNP: 7 (+1)
The usual health warning about polls in general and combining polls in particular, but the results are beginning to show a certain degree of consistency.
That is that Nationalist support is going down, Labour is regularly in the low to mid 30s and the Tories are stuck around 20 per cent, while the Lib Dems are in a desperate battle for survival.
The data shows:
Con: 20.5% Lab: 35% Lib Dems: 16% SNP: 23.5%
My guess would be that the SNP vote is probably higher, whereas the Labour and Lib Dem vote is in reality a couple of points each below what is shown in this data.
However, should election day have this breakdown, then Electoral Calculus suggests the following results for Westminster in Scotland with change from the 2005 election in brackets:
Con: 4 (+3) Lab 38 (-3) Lib Dems 10 (-1) SNP: 7 (+1)
Labels: David Maddox, general election, polls
posted by Administrator at
16:00
6 Comments:
The story today written by Maddox on Alex Salmond 'coming off the ropes' is a disgrace. Even he must have been embarrassed writing it.
Let's face it 'the steamie' and in particular, Maddox's blogs are and abject failure, regularly attracting little over three comments per post - why bother.
The scotsman is dead.
David,
Going by your figures there is something drastically wrong with the electoral system in this country because it shows that Labour with 35% gets 38 MPs and the other three parties with a combined total of 60% would only get 21 MPs. In other words Labour with only just over half the percentage vote of the other three would get nearly twice as many MPs.
Perhaps the Scotsman could mount a campaign to rectify this apparently undemocratic anomaly?
Brownlie,
I always feel that Scotland is the best example of a place that needs PR for that very reason. Even though instinctively I prefer first past the post, the electoral advantage for Labour here is vastly disproportionate and unfair.
I find it amazing too that the Lib Dem vote can drop so far and yet have little impact on the number of seats they win.
David M
David, I agree that we need PR, but I'd be intrigued to see an example of another country where first past the post accurately reflects national vote levels.
James,
While FPTP is never proportionate, in Scotland it would equate to a one party state.
Its advantages though are it simplicity and direct connection between an area and the elected representative. Many forms of PR, including Holyrood's lists, allow for a situation where MSPs are directly accountable to just a few party members.
- David M
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