Chris Mackie: Glasgow North East - the turnout
There is some typically insightful stuff from Mike Smithson at his ever fascinating Political Betting blog this afternoon. Despite near-universal predictions of a depressingly low number of people actually bothering to cast their votes in today's Glasgow North East poll, Mike has a decent stab at arguing that the official turnout could be surprisingly high.
He argues: "Just look what happened a year ago in the last by election where Gordon Brown campaigned. That was held in early November and we saw more than 52% of those on the electoral roll recorded as voting - which wasn’t that far short of the general election figure. "
This, the increased postal vote and the 42 per cent turnout in the Glasgow East poll has led Mike to put his money on the turnout being higher than 38 per cent.
Despite the weather in Glasgow holding up so far, I think this is slightly optimistic. The big issue he fails to tackle is the impact of the expenses scandal and the resultant voter apathy - a problem felt especially keenly in a constituency such as Glasgow North East. This effect will be exacerbated by the absence of any real political fight in the seat since Michael Martin became speaker. Numerous party workers have told us of the logistical problems they have faced during this campaign caused by the lack of any meaningful voter data or polling records on which to base their campaign strategy.
Things have not been helped, frankly, by the vague air of chaos around the whole enterprise caused by the existence of a number of no-hoper candidates all fighting for attention. That is undoubtedly a welcome sight in any democracy, but it has not helped any semblance of a pervasive narrative for the election break through to the media and subsequently, the voters.
The Glenrothes and Glasgow East fight were fascinating contests because they represented a clear referendum on the popularity of the Labour government. This contest has no such backdrop, despite the efforts of the SNP, and that is partly because of the number of competing voices shouting to be heard. There have been snatches of the BNP furore, a smidgen of red-faced socialist outrage and a touch of Tory toffage, but nothing that has dominated the news agenda throughout the campaign.
On the other hand, the increase in the postal vote will help, so it seems likely the doomsday predictions (see below post from David Maddox) will not materialise, I therefore confidently predict a turnout of around the 30 per cent mark and fully expect to be proved hopelessly wrong tomorrow morning.
He argues: "Just look what happened a year ago in the last by election where Gordon Brown campaigned. That was held in early November and we saw more than 52% of those on the electoral roll recorded as voting - which wasn’t that far short of the general election figure. "
This, the increased postal vote and the 42 per cent turnout in the Glasgow East poll has led Mike to put his money on the turnout being higher than 38 per cent.
Despite the weather in Glasgow holding up so far, I think this is slightly optimistic. The big issue he fails to tackle is the impact of the expenses scandal and the resultant voter apathy - a problem felt especially keenly in a constituency such as Glasgow North East. This effect will be exacerbated by the absence of any real political fight in the seat since Michael Martin became speaker. Numerous party workers have told us of the logistical problems they have faced during this campaign caused by the lack of any meaningful voter data or polling records on which to base their campaign strategy.
Things have not been helped, frankly, by the vague air of chaos around the whole enterprise caused by the existence of a number of no-hoper candidates all fighting for attention. That is undoubtedly a welcome sight in any democracy, but it has not helped any semblance of a pervasive narrative for the election break through to the media and subsequently, the voters.
The Glenrothes and Glasgow East fight were fascinating contests because they represented a clear referendum on the popularity of the Labour government. This contest has no such backdrop, despite the efforts of the SNP, and that is partly because of the number of competing voices shouting to be heard. There have been snatches of the BNP furore, a smidgen of red-faced socialist outrage and a touch of Tory toffage, but nothing that has dominated the news agenda throughout the campaign.
On the other hand, the increase in the postal vote will help, so it seems likely the doomsday predictions (see below post from David Maddox) will not materialise, I therefore confidently predict a turnout of around the 30 per cent mark and fully expect to be proved hopelessly wrong tomorrow morning.
Labels: BNP, Glasgow East., Glasgow North East, Glenrothes, Gordon Brown, Labour, Scottish Tories, SNP
posted by Administrator at
15:41
3 Comments:
Hmmm. Mr Mackie, I am also currently haunted by a 30% figure not in relation to turnout (i think you're right), but in relation to representation. I just posted this at the Tom Harris site (surprisingly affable sort of place) - so will just repeat it after this para. You say that the string of no-hopers are clouding the issue, but a few of them are in with a shout at getting a decent amount of votes and I think what we may be seeing is the future of Scottish politics - a future in which support for the dominant party hovers around 30%, and whoever gets in, most of us will be unhappy - a sort of cross between the worlds of Ivor Cutler and Armando Ianucci, but without the laughs.
'The Scottish Euro election figures for the small parties are interesting –
British National Party 27,174 2.46%
Socialist Labour Party 22,135 2.00%
Christian Party – Christian Peoples Alliance 16,738 1.52%
Scottish Socialist Party 10,404 0.94%
Independent – Duncan Robertson 10,189 0.92%
No2EU 9,693 0.88%
Jury Team 6,257 0.57%
Add UKIP’s 5.2% and the Greens 7.3% gives us (I think) 21.7% – it could be that in the future, and in Springburn just now, ‘minorities’ will go to maybe 25% of the total. We’ll see what tomorrow brings but I wonder of Scotland’s political future is becoming a 30% future, one in which the ‘dominant’ party is only voted for by about a third of the people.
Re the BNP, I wonder if anyone else suspects they are being talked up in the media as possibly finishing 3rd so we can all heave a sigh of relief when they ‘only;’ save their deposit.
For those who haven’t seen it, the Guardian web site has a good video piece by the normally insufferable John Harris (presumably not related to Tom Harris); highlights include (a) a street bollocking for the BNP; a spirited and impressive performance from the Tory; (c) Tommy Sheridan snarling at Harris as the latter scores.
Voter turnout, at 33.2%, was a record low for a Scottish by-election.
A truly shocking statistic made even worse by the state of this particular constituency and the poverty of ambition that resides there. the lack of aspiration, an acceptance of their lot and the willingness to continue to vote for a party that has failed the area so miserably is an affront to those that have fought & died to give us these freedoms.
The inability to imagine change, to envision real improvement and that this area can really improve has been shown to be completely missing from Glasgow North East and must surely be a matter of concern for all political parties and in particular the Labour Party who have represented these people for so long.
Will anything change, I doubt it.
It will take big ideas to change Springburn and no party offered that change during this campaign, no-one other than Tommy Sheridan offered an alternative vision to the failure of the last twenty five years and yet the voters flatly rejected that vision in favour for a campaign run negatively with no real policy content.
NB It would be interesting to see the demographic of those that voted, Glasgow City Council reported over 6000 registered postal votes, which accounts for 30% of votes cast, surely some kind of record in there too.
Equally chilling is the revelation that over 4000 extra voters have been added to the electoral register in the last month, accounting for 25% of those that voted.
Post a Comment
<< Home