Eddie Barnes - Recession Over. Scottish Labour need new excuse.

So that's it then. The IMF has declared this morning that the world recession is now over and the global economy is expanding again. It has raised its growth forecast for the global economy back above the 3% mark next year, and the UK's growth rate to 0.9%.

In the context of Scottish politics, and the proposed independence referendum, this rather lands Labour in it. Observers will recall the Scottish party's latest position on whether or not to back a referendum has been to say that it would be wrong to do so in the middle of a recession, but that after that it might not be a bad idea. This formulation was conceived entirely as a way of dodging the SNP's point that opposition to a referendum was anti-democratic. OK democracy is important, Labour was saying, but overcoming the recession was more so.

But the recession now appears to be over. Or at least it will be by the time the SNP lay their referendum bill next year. Which means that Labour's line is fast becoming defunct.

Of course Labour could simply say that they won't back a referendum because they don't want to have one. But the confidence-sapped party appears to be terrified of being cast by the SNP as opposing the right of the people to have their say. But if the spectre of a recession can no longer raised as an excuse for not supporting a referenum, then what can? You can be sure that the SNP will be quick to ask the question.