David Maddox: The Numbers Game (23) - polls apart

I have been handed two different versions of Yougov polls today, which make for some interesting analysis.

The first was the Scottish sample (188 people) of the Sun/ Yougov poll.

Cons 22% Lab 34% Lib Dems 10% SNP 28%

According to Electoral Calculus this would translate into the following allocation of seats (change from 2005 in brackets):

Cons 7 (+6) Lab 37 (-4) Lib Dems 6 (-5) SNP 9 (+3)

The second poll I was given was perhaps a little more scientific as it was the cumulative figures for the Scottish samples of the tracker Yougov polling for Sky TV. It gave the following results:

Cons 24% Lab 32% Lib Dems 12% SNP (inc others) 31%

This gives the following Scottish general election seat calculations according to Electoral Calculus (again change from 2005 in brackets):

Cons 10 (+9) Lab 31 (-10) Lib Dems 7 (-4) SNP 11 (+5)

Whilst even properly have scientific polls have to be taken with a health warning, these samples, particularly the tracker ones which represent more than 1,000 voters, do give us some hints of what is happening in Scotland from which we can draw four conclusions.

1. It suggests that the Cameron bounce is beginning to pay dividends with consistent polling in the low 20s for the Tories north of the Border.

2. They confirm that the SNP are running Labour close in Westminster voting intentions but an in-built constituency advantage for Labour appears should limit any damage and prevent the Nationalists from reaching their target of 20.

3. The Lib Dems are in real trouble in Scotland.

4. Just a small switch of a couple of points either way could have dramatic effects on how many seats parties get.

However, there is still a long way to go and only one poll that counts. Personally, I would be surprised if we see the above allocations in the final reckoning. Most people would guess the Tories and possibly Labour would have less while the SNP more. But there is still clearly a lot to play for.