David Maddox: The Numbers Game (22) - the Cameron "tartan" bounce?
A little bit of research over the last week has shown that while the Conservatives may not have reached the heights of 50 per cent of the Scottish vote of the 1950, but the comeback from the nadir of 1997 is underway.
The Yougov Sky poll running everyday this week shows from the Scottish samples that the Tories are beginning to make an impression. Averaged out they show:
Con 24% Lab 33% Lib Dems 13% SNP 30%
This would translate into the following results in Scottish seats, according to Electoral Calculus. Please note that 2005 general election seat numbers are in brackets.
Con 9 (1) Lab 34 (41) Lib Dems 8 (11) SNP 8 (6)
Now the Tories as the second biggest grouping in Scotland? That would be a turn up for the books and hard to believe even if they have a minimum aim of four seats. This would actually break their 2014 target of eight seats, as recently revealed by the Scotsman.
I suspect the SNP at least may be confident of doing better than that. However, this does show that the Conservatives are slowly but surely re-establishing themselves north of the Border.
The Yougov Sky poll running everyday this week shows from the Scottish samples that the Tories are beginning to make an impression. Averaged out they show:
Con 24% Lab 33% Lib Dems 13% SNP 30%
This would translate into the following results in Scottish seats, according to Electoral Calculus. Please note that 2005 general election seat numbers are in brackets.
Con 9 (1) Lab 34 (41) Lib Dems 8 (11) SNP 8 (6)
Now the Tories as the second biggest grouping in Scotland? That would be a turn up for the books and hard to believe even if they have a minimum aim of four seats. This would actually break their 2014 target of eight seats, as recently revealed by the Scotsman.
I suspect the SNP at least may be confident of doing better than that. However, this does show that the Conservatives are slowly but surely re-establishing themselves north of the Border.
Labels: David Maddox, polls
posted by Administrator at
19:06
3 Comments:
Ha! All it shows is that you can NOT base a poll purporting to estimate the vote of 5 million people on a sampling of less than 100.
Get real.
Jim Murphy in East Ren, Darling in Edin SW- better watch out.
Although the point made by Jeanne concerning the size of the samples is entirely fair; I would ask her to consider the most recent polls- the September 24-27 Scottish YouGov (sample size over 1000) found the Scottish tories on 22% so perhaps these findings arent all that far fetched?
Dean MacKinnon-Thomson [aka deanthetory]
The real elephant in the room is how votes translate into seats. Doesn't take much to work out that Labour's 33% of the vote gives them a whopping 58% of the seats, and the SNP's 30% of votes cast gives them 13% of seats.
Democracy at work.
Post a Comment
<< Home