David Maddox: The Numbers Game (20) - Odd predictions for Glasgow North East
Ladbrokes have just issued their odds for the declared candidates in Glasgow North East. The biggest surprise are the small odds for former Glasgow Airport bomb hero John 'Smeato' Smeaton who has just been announced as the Jury Team candidate.
His odds of 8/1 are much shorter than two of the established parties, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, who admittedly stand a snowflake in Hell's chance of winning the seat. Strange though considering the Jury Team got the least number of votes in the recent European elections.
Ladbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison explains: "Over-turning a Labour majority of 10,000 will be tough, even for a bloke who set aboot suicide bombers. But if anyone can, Smeato can."
Apparently he may not have said that had he witnessed the press conference launching Smeato as the candidate. I'm told by a colleague it got so out of hand he struggled so much that the Jury Team minders had to step in to cut it short. The event was punctured by long pauses as he struggled to answer basic questions.
Which goes to prove tackling suicide bombers is one thing, tackling hardened Scottish political hacks is an altogether different prospect.
Anyway here are Ladbrokes' odds for Glasgow North East:
Willie Bain (Labour) 4/6
David Kerr (SNP) 5/4
John Smeaton (Jury Team) 8/1
Ruth Davidson (Conservative) 100/1
Eileen Baxendale (Liberal Democrats) 100/1
Tommy Sheridan (Solidarity) 100/1
John Swinburne (Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party) 200/1
Kevin McVey (Scottish Socialist Party) 200/1
Charlie Baillie (BNP) 500/1
His odds of 8/1 are much shorter than two of the established parties, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, who admittedly stand a snowflake in Hell's chance of winning the seat. Strange though considering the Jury Team got the least number of votes in the recent European elections.
Ladbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison explains: "Over-turning a Labour majority of 10,000 will be tough, even for a bloke who set aboot suicide bombers. But if anyone can, Smeato can."
Apparently he may not have said that had he witnessed the press conference launching Smeato as the candidate. I'm told by a colleague it got so out of hand he struggled so much that the Jury Team minders had to step in to cut it short. The event was punctured by long pauses as he struggled to answer basic questions.
Which goes to prove tackling suicide bombers is one thing, tackling hardened Scottish political hacks is an altogether different prospect.
Anyway here are Ladbrokes' odds for Glasgow North East:
Willie Bain (Labour) 4/6
David Kerr (SNP) 5/4
John Smeaton (Jury Team) 8/1
Ruth Davidson (Conservative) 100/1
Eileen Baxendale (Liberal Democrats) 100/1
Tommy Sheridan (Solidarity) 100/1
John Swinburne (Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party) 200/1
Kevin McVey (Scottish Socialist Party) 200/1
Charlie Baillie (BNP) 500/1
Labels: David Maddox, Glasgow North East, John Smeaton, Ladbrokes, odds
posted by Administrator at
11:49
6 Comments:
Actually, I felt quite sorry for John Smeaton. The Jury crowd must have known that he would be asked awkward questions and they should have brought the guy who writes his column in the Sun along for a bit of immoral support.
Didn't watch it - I don't like blood sports - bit could he really have been much worse than some previous contenders? Anyone remember Labour's Bob Gillespie standing in Govan against Jim Sillars and responding to an easy question with 'You've got me there?'
But Mr Maddox, I wouldn't make too much of that image of hardened Scottish hacks being tougher to deal with than suicide bombers. 'Hardened' Scottish hacks - unlike, dare I say it, English hacks - have a historical tendency to pitch their hardest questions at the weakest candidates, and ignore the elephants in the room.
I don't claim to be in touch with what the 'people' think, but I doubt that Smeaton is that popular anyway - I remember Scots pundits telling us how popular Tommy Sheridan was with the 'people' and wondering just who these people were, as I didn't seem to meet them.
From any perspective, the odds for Smeaton are bonkers; is this a bookie's ploy of some kind?
Edwin,
On reflection I'm sure the press conference won't make much difference and Smeaton will pick up votes as an ordinary, decent bloke with a hero's reputation, but he won't win.
And yes it is a kind of bookie's ploy to make sure long odds don't influence the outcome. Personally I'm surprised they are still taking money on Labour.
As far as Scottish political hacks go you are wrong. Believe me we enjoy pitching in against anybody, there's no difference. It's just that some are more adept at handling it through skill and experience.
Brownlie
I wouldn't feel that sorry for him. With the backing of The Sun and the protection that affords, I'm sure he will be all right.
Senior Citizens Unity Party surely?
Well spotted ASwaS - there are some pretty exclusive parties about but a solely unionist senior citizens party wouldn't be terribly unifying among crumblies of my generation!
Must be 'unity' surely, as you suggest? In either case, SCUP does not have the ring of a desirable acronym - every tired hack in Scotland will be struggling to get 'scupper' into any reference to them.
ASwaS - Quite correct. Now corrected. Problem of quickly copying and pasting Ladbrokes press release.
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