David Maddox: The Numbers Games (14) - Green shoots of recovery?
Could it be that despite all the worry of BNP candidates being returned to the European Parliament the actual main beneficiaries of the expenses scandal could be the Greens?
The party of recycling policies has put out a press release on the latest poll conducted by ComRes which seems to be very encouraging for them, especially in Scotland.
The UK figures of the poll of 1,009 people were:
Conservative: 24% Labour: 22% UKIP: 17% Green: 15% Lib Dem: 14% Others: 9%
This could increase the Green's seats from two (one in the South East and one in London) to 10, according to a party press release.
The Scottish sample was:
SNP: 29% Labour: 22% Green: 18% Conservative: 12% Lib Dem: 9% Others: 7%
Amazingly it puts the Greens in third place and would mean 2 seats each for the SNP and Labour, 1 each for the Greens and Tories and nothing for the poor Lib Dems.
One should remember though that the Greens are the party who predicted they would get 10 seats or more in the 2007 Holyrood election and hold the balance of power. Surprisingly, their eventual return of two seats actually meant they were at least half right because at times they have had the decisive votes, notably in voting down the budget.
But getting back to this poll, this Scottish sample represents a mere 89 people, which makes it not exactly the most scientific study of popular opinion in Scotland, although the way things are going not many more people may turn out to vote on Thursday.
The party of recycling policies has put out a press release on the latest poll conducted by ComRes which seems to be very encouraging for them, especially in Scotland.
The UK figures of the poll of 1,009 people were:
Conservative: 24% Labour: 22% UKIP: 17% Green: 15% Lib Dem: 14% Others: 9%
This could increase the Green's seats from two (one in the South East and one in London) to 10, according to a party press release.
The Scottish sample was:
SNP: 29% Labour: 22% Green: 18% Conservative: 12% Lib Dem: 9% Others: 7%
Amazingly it puts the Greens in third place and would mean 2 seats each for the SNP and Labour, 1 each for the Greens and Tories and nothing for the poor Lib Dems.
One should remember though that the Greens are the party who predicted they would get 10 seats or more in the 2007 Holyrood election and hold the balance of power. Surprisingly, their eventual return of two seats actually meant they were at least half right because at times they have had the decisive votes, notably in voting down the budget.
But getting back to this poll, this Scottish sample represents a mere 89 people, which makes it not exactly the most scientific study of popular opinion in Scotland, although the way things are going not many more people may turn out to vote on Thursday.
Labels: David Maddox, European election, Greens, polls
posted by Administrator at
10:30
1 Comments:
Correct on all points: it's a wee sample, not to be taken too seriously, and yes, we got awfully excited before May 07 before a big disappointment. The polls in May 03 suggested we'd get up to 4, if I remember rightly, and we ended up with 7, so who knows?
Either way, the UK-wide numbers look pretty good, though.
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