David Maddox: The Numbers Game (16)
People are out voting today (some of them anyway) and it looks like it might be a better turnout than expected if the feedback I'm getting from the front is true.
Anyway, it offers us a quick look at the Scottish sample of the latest Yougov poll which is running today.
SNP: 33 Lab: 25 Con: 18 Lib Dems: 16 Others: 8
This would mean a distribution of 2 seats each for the SNP and Labour, and 1 each for the Tories and Lib Dems. This was the predictable result even before the expenses scandal, but it appears that events in Westminster have shored up the Lib Dem vote and the only question is if Labour's drops so low it only qualifies for one seat.
As the sample is 410, it is a little better than the usual but still about half the number needed to be considered properly scientific.
And, as it was a large sample, just for fun I ran it through Electoral Calculus to see what it would mean in a general election.
SNP: 28 (+22) Lab: 17 (-24) Con: 4 (+3) Lib Dems: 10 (-1)
OK it is a sample not a proper poll, but this analysis indicates a sea change that could reshape Scottish politics far more accurately than the six seats available in the European parliament can tell us.
Anyway, it offers us a quick look at the Scottish sample of the latest Yougov poll which is running today.
SNP: 33 Lab: 25 Con: 18 Lib Dems: 16 Others: 8
This would mean a distribution of 2 seats each for the SNP and Labour, and 1 each for the Tories and Lib Dems. This was the predictable result even before the expenses scandal, but it appears that events in Westminster have shored up the Lib Dem vote and the only question is if Labour's drops so low it only qualifies for one seat.
As the sample is 410, it is a little better than the usual but still about half the number needed to be considered properly scientific.
And, as it was a large sample, just for fun I ran it through Electoral Calculus to see what it would mean in a general election.
SNP: 28 (+22) Lab: 17 (-24) Con: 4 (+3) Lib Dems: 10 (-1)
OK it is a sample not a proper poll, but this analysis indicates a sea change that could reshape Scottish politics far more accurately than the six seats available in the European parliament can tell us.
Labels: David Maddox, European election, polls
posted by Administrator at
15:30
1 Comments:
"SNP: 33 Lab: 25 Con: 18 Lib Dems: 16 Others: 8"
Those are the Westminster numbers. The European figures for Scotland are:
SNP 31
Lab 22
LD 17
Con 14
Grn 5
BNP 4
UKIP 3
Libertas 1
Jury Team 1
Oth 1
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