David Maddox: The Numbers Game (9)
The weekend poll which gave the SNP a 10 point lead in list voting intentions and 12 point lead in constituency voting intentions for a Holyrood election has brought about a predictable but nevertheless interesting press release.
The SNP have worked out that they would gain 11 seats overall and actually more importantly should pick up 26 new constituency ones.
This is based on the predictor Scotland Votes, which somehow seems to work out a solution from one of the most complex voting procedures in the world.
The constituency number is always considered more important by parties because it gives them a much stronger platform to build for the future.
According to the latest poll this would see Labour leader Iain Gray and many of the shadow cabinet thrown out.
However, the usual bucket of salt needs to be applied. Like Electoral Calculus this does not take into account local circumstances or personal votes. For example the SNP also claim they will take out Presiding Officer Alex Fergusson, who was number two on their target list last time and actually managed to hugely increase his majority.
Seats that potentially fall to SNP (and their potential victims):
Airdrie and Shotts - Karen Whitefield, Education Committee Convenor (Lab)
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth - Cathy Craigie (Lab)
East Kilbride - Andy Kerr, Labour's Finance spokesman
Falkirk East - Cathie Peattie (Lab)
Cathcart - Charlie Gordon (Lab)
Glasgow Kelvin - Pauline McNeil, Labour Culture spokeswoman
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - Jamie Stone (Lib Dem)
Ross, Skye and Inverness West - John Farquhar Munro (Lib Dem)
Edinburgh Central - Sarah Boyack, Labour's Rural & Environment spokeswoman
Edinburgh North and Leith - Malcolm Chisholm
Edinburgh West - Margaret Smith, LibDem Education spokeswoman
Linlithgow - Mary Mulligan (Lab)
Midlothian - Rhona Brankin, Labour's Education spokeswoman
Dunfermline West - Jim Tolson (Lib Dem)
Kirkcaldy - Marlyn Livingstone (Lab)
Clydesdale - Karen Gillon (Lab)
Cunninghame South - Irene Oldfather (Lab)
East Lothian - Iain Gray, Labour Leader
Galloway and Upper Nithsdale - Alex Fergusson, Presiding Officer (Con)
Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale - Jeremy Purvis, Lib Dem Finance spokesman
Clydebank and Milngavie - Des McNulty, Labour transport spokesman
Dumbarton - Jackie Baillie (Lab)
West Renfrewshire - Trish Godman (Lab)
Aberdeen Central - Lewis McDonald, Labour Energy spokesman
Aberdeen South - Nicol Stephen, former Lib Dem leader
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - Mike Rumbles, Lib Dem Chief Whip
The SNP have worked out that they would gain 11 seats overall and actually more importantly should pick up 26 new constituency ones.
This is based on the predictor Scotland Votes, which somehow seems to work out a solution from one of the most complex voting procedures in the world.
The constituency number is always considered more important by parties because it gives them a much stronger platform to build for the future.
According to the latest poll this would see Labour leader Iain Gray and many of the shadow cabinet thrown out.
However, the usual bucket of salt needs to be applied. Like Electoral Calculus this does not take into account local circumstances or personal votes. For example the SNP also claim they will take out Presiding Officer Alex Fergusson, who was number two on their target list last time and actually managed to hugely increase his majority.
Seats that potentially fall to SNP (and their potential victims):
Airdrie and Shotts - Karen Whitefield, Education Committee Convenor (Lab)
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth - Cathy Craigie (Lab)
East Kilbride - Andy Kerr, Labour's Finance spokesman
Falkirk East - Cathie Peattie (Lab)
Cathcart - Charlie Gordon (Lab)
Glasgow Kelvin - Pauline McNeil, Labour Culture spokeswoman
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - Jamie Stone (Lib Dem)
Ross, Skye and Inverness West - John Farquhar Munro (Lib Dem)
Edinburgh Central - Sarah Boyack, Labour's Rural & Environment spokeswoman
Edinburgh North and Leith - Malcolm Chisholm
Edinburgh West - Margaret Smith, LibDem Education spokeswoman
Linlithgow - Mary Mulligan (Lab)
Midlothian - Rhona Brankin, Labour's Education spokeswoman
Dunfermline West - Jim Tolson (Lib Dem)
Kirkcaldy - Marlyn Livingstone (Lab)
Clydesdale - Karen Gillon (Lab)
Cunninghame South - Irene Oldfather (Lab)
East Lothian - Iain Gray, Labour Leader
Galloway and Upper Nithsdale - Alex Fergusson, Presiding Officer (Con)
Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale - Jeremy Purvis, Lib Dem Finance spokesman
Clydebank and Milngavie - Des McNulty, Labour transport spokesman
Dumbarton - Jackie Baillie (Lab)
West Renfrewshire - Trish Godman (Lab)
Aberdeen Central - Lewis McDonald, Labour Energy spokesman
Aberdeen South - Nicol Stephen, former Lib Dem leader
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - Mike Rumbles, Lib Dem Chief Whip
Labels: Alex Fergusson, David Maddox, Holyrood election, Iain Gray, polls, SNP
posted by Administrator at
17:38
2 Comments:
The boundaries have changed for the next election and will be confirmed this month.
We don't even know what the new regions are yet, so this 'analysis' means nothing.
Yousuf I think its unfair to see it means nothing at all.
not every single boundary changes, and the regional predicitons are still applicable
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