David Maddox: The Numbers Game (12)
Here is the latest Scottish sample of a Yougov poll for Westminster voting intentions. It is only 195 people (weighted) and 241 in total so cannot be taken as scientific. However, it is interesting because it is the first one since the MP expenses scandal impacted on the public consciousness.
SNP 30% Lab 28% Con 20% LD 16%
Putting this into Electoral Calculus you get the following number of Scottish Westminster seats:
SNP 13 (+7) Lab 30 (-11) Con 5 (+4) LD 11 (no change)
This seems to indicate that the SNP and Lib Dems are less damaged by the expenses scandal and their support appears to be up. In the Lib Dems case it is their best sample in many months.
The Tories seem to have only sustained limited damage and their vote is still holding consistently around 20%.
However, as expected the expenses scandal seems to have hit Labour hardest and while this calculation may still have them as the biggest party there are many marginals there for them to defend and many of their MPs North of the border who may have some explaining to do.
It will be interesting to see the next few Scottish samples, but David Cameron's warning to Unionists seems to have some substance in that the chances of the SNP being the biggest party and getting the 20 seats Alex Salmond is targeting is looking a much better bet than before.
SNP 30% Lab 28% Con 20% LD 16%
Putting this into Electoral Calculus you get the following number of Scottish Westminster seats:
SNP 13 (+7) Lab 30 (-11) Con 5 (+4) LD 11 (no change)
This seems to indicate that the SNP and Lib Dems are less damaged by the expenses scandal and their support appears to be up. In the Lib Dems case it is their best sample in many months.
The Tories seem to have only sustained limited damage and their vote is still holding consistently around 20%.
However, as expected the expenses scandal seems to have hit Labour hardest and while this calculation may still have them as the biggest party there are many marginals there for them to defend and many of their MPs North of the border who may have some explaining to do.
It will be interesting to see the next few Scottish samples, but David Cameron's warning to Unionists seems to have some substance in that the chances of the SNP being the biggest party and getting the 20 seats Alex Salmond is targeting is looking a much better bet than before.
Labels: David Maddox, polls
posted by Administrator at
09:20
1 Comments:
Strange, and a bit wrong that 30% of the vote should translate to 13 seats, and 28% of the vote to 30 seats. By the same token the Tories would stand to have 5 seats on 20% whilst the Libs get 11 seats out of only 16%.
Something needs to be done about the voting system surely.
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