David Maddox: The numbers game (11) - Scottish Tory conference special

According to one paper this morning Ladbrokes are only offering 3/1 on the Tories getting seven or more seats in Scotland. The point was alluded to by Annabel Goldie in her longest day speech (it went on a bit, like the famous film) yesterday as proof that the party is on the way back.
Regular readers of the Numbers Game blogs on the Steamie will know that the Electoral Calculus predictions based on current polls, which do not even properly account for local loyalties, has the Tories getting seven seats on the most generous interpretations of the polls. So this is one of those occasions that it is better to hold on to your money.
However, it might be worth getting odds on five seats or more the way things are going, assuming that the SNP are not the only ones to benefit from a Labour collapse North of the border.