David Maddox: The numbers game (10)
My usual sources have sent me the latest results of the rolling poll analysis.
This involves taking the Scottish samples of the last four Yougov polls in the hope that it may give a more reflective view of what is going on in the minds of Scottish voters. Four polls essentially includes the views of around 700 to 1,000 people.
The latest analysis gives the following in Westminster voting intentions:
Con: 23.75% Lab: 34% SNP: 26.25% Lib Dems: 12.75%
Our old friends at Electoral Calculus give the following breakdown in seats this would lead to:
Con: 7 Lab: 37 SNP: 7 Lib Dems: 8
Regular readers will know my scepticism about polls anyway, but this latest sample of four comes with more of a health warning than most, not least because of two rogue samples which gave the Tories 27% and 29% in that selection.
But, more importantly, as we have seen in the papers today there is already a knock-on to the expenses row which is impacting on Labour and the Conservatives support in particular.
No party has come out of the expenses affair totally clean, but it seems that the worst excesses have been from the two biggest parties so it will be interesting to see the same analysis done of samples of the first four polls following the scandal.
Nevertheless, polls still work as an indicator of the general flow of opinion and it is interesting to peruse the full analysis I have been provided with at this link: Scottish%20Yougov%20analysis
This involves taking the Scottish samples of the last four Yougov polls in the hope that it may give a more reflective view of what is going on in the minds of Scottish voters. Four polls essentially includes the views of around 700 to 1,000 people.
The latest analysis gives the following in Westminster voting intentions:
Con: 23.75% Lab: 34% SNP: 26.25% Lib Dems: 12.75%
Our old friends at Electoral Calculus give the following breakdown in seats this would lead to:
Con: 7 Lab: 37 SNP: 7 Lib Dems: 8
Regular readers will know my scepticism about polls anyway, but this latest sample of four comes with more of a health warning than most, not least because of two rogue samples which gave the Tories 27% and 29% in that selection.
But, more importantly, as we have seen in the papers today there is already a knock-on to the expenses row which is impacting on Labour and the Conservatives support in particular.
No party has come out of the expenses affair totally clean, but it seems that the worst excesses have been from the two biggest parties so it will be interesting to see the same analysis done of samples of the first four polls following the scandal.
Nevertheless, polls still work as an indicator of the general flow of opinion and it is interesting to peruse the full analysis I have been provided with at this link: Scottish%20Yougov%20analysis
Labels: David Maddox, MPs expenses scandal, polls
posted by Administrator at
10:56
1 Comments:
"No party has come out of the expenses affair totally clean"?
Yup, all those Green MPs with their fingers in the till. Shame on them!
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