David Maddox: The numbers game (7) - Desperate tactics
Life these days is tough for a Labour spin doctor because most of the poll readings are not exactly messages of joy for Messrs Brown, Darling, Gray et al.
So in the last week when the polls have been particularly bad both UK-wide and in Scotland, they have deployed their last cards in the numbers game. The tactic appears to be take whatever looks good however flimsy and desperate in the hope it has an impact.
So in a week when poll figures that suggest David Cameron would have a 150 seat majority if an election were called, Labour sent me this Scottish sample from yesterday's Daily Politics poll.
When asked: Who do you trust to steer Britain through the downturn?
Brown/Darling 48% v Cameron/Osborne 22%
Looks impressive until you realise that this Scottish sample is just 90 people.
It reminded me of last week's response to the Yougov poll commissioned by the SNP last week which gave the Nationalists a seven per cent lead in Scotland over Labour.
Labour of course dismissed it because it was SNP commissioned, even though it was a neutral organisation conducting the survey and came up with another Scottish sample of a concurrent UK-wide poll.
Lab 41% Con 27% SNP 18% Lib Dems 14% UKIP 1%
Again very impressive until you realise that this sample is just 165 people - "more than most samples," Labour insisted, but not exactly a scientific survey. Perhaps the fact the sample has the Tories scoring 27 per cent in Scotland should raise doubts about how it reflects support in Scotland, even the most ardent true blues would not be that optimistic.
However, Labour's spin doctors may still have a point. Larger polls have proven to be horribly wrong in the past. Let us not forget 1992, I know Labour don't, when the Conservative won despite what the polls had suggested. In recent times too, in Scotland at least, the polls have fluctuated greatly between Labour and SNP support. There's only one type of poll that counts the rest are just window dressing.
The next true poll then will be on June 4 in the European elections.
So in the last week when the polls have been particularly bad both UK-wide and in Scotland, they have deployed their last cards in the numbers game. The tactic appears to be take whatever looks good however flimsy and desperate in the hope it has an impact.
So in a week when poll figures that suggest David Cameron would have a 150 seat majority if an election were called, Labour sent me this Scottish sample from yesterday's Daily Politics poll.
When asked: Who do you trust to steer Britain through the downturn?
Brown/Darling 48% v Cameron/Osborne 22%
Looks impressive until you realise that this Scottish sample is just 90 people.
It reminded me of last week's response to the Yougov poll commissioned by the SNP last week which gave the Nationalists a seven per cent lead in Scotland over Labour.
Labour of course dismissed it because it was SNP commissioned, even though it was a neutral organisation conducting the survey and came up with another Scottish sample of a concurrent UK-wide poll.
Lab 41% Con 27% SNP 18% Lib Dems 14% UKIP 1%
Again very impressive until you realise that this sample is just 165 people - "more than most samples," Labour insisted, but not exactly a scientific survey. Perhaps the fact the sample has the Tories scoring 27 per cent in Scotland should raise doubts about how it reflects support in Scotland, even the most ardent true blues would not be that optimistic.
However, Labour's spin doctors may still have a point. Larger polls have proven to be horribly wrong in the past. Let us not forget 1992, I know Labour don't, when the Conservative won despite what the polls had suggested. In recent times too, in Scotland at least, the polls have fluctuated greatly between Labour and SNP support. There's only one type of poll that counts the rest are just window dressing.
The next true poll then will be on June 4 in the European elections.
Labels: David Maddox, Labour, polls, SNP
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