David Maddox: The numbers game (6) - Scottish edition
Following my blog yesterday about the Westminster House magazine piece by Professor Paul Whiteley of Essex University on the strength of brand identity for political parties, he has kindly sent me the Scottish analysis.
His thesis is that the figures reveal that there is "everything to play for" in the next general election because the Conservative lead at at UK level is based on "fickle non-partisans."
UK- wide the latest support was 27% of people who identify themselves with Labour and 26% for the Tories.
In Scotland Labour has even more grounds for cautious optimism with 32% and just 25% for the SNP. The Tories are at just 14% and Lib Dems 10%.
"This is not surprising since Labour has a much longer history of electoral success in Scotland than the SNP," Prof Whiteley told me. "It takes time to build up partisan attachments."
As I mentioned in the previous blog, it is swing voters who decide elections not core supporters, but in these tough times Labour at least has a good base to work from.
His thesis is that the figures reveal that there is "everything to play for" in the next general election because the Conservative lead at at UK level is based on "fickle non-partisans."
UK- wide the latest support was 27% of people who identify themselves with Labour and 26% for the Tories.
In Scotland Labour has even more grounds for cautious optimism with 32% and just 25% for the SNP. The Tories are at just 14% and Lib Dems 10%.
"This is not surprising since Labour has a much longer history of electoral success in Scotland than the SNP," Prof Whiteley told me. "It takes time to build up partisan attachments."
As I mentioned in the previous blog, it is swing voters who decide elections not core supporters, but in these tough times Labour at least has a good base to work from.
Labels: David Maddox, polls, Professor Paul Whiteley
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