Eddie Barnes - Labour's power is draining away

David Freud, the former government welfare adviser on whose transfer to the Tories we reported at the weekend, explains today why he chose to go. "I got on incredibly well with (Work and Pensions Secretary) James Purnell, but you have to assess where you can make the most impact."

So, it wasn't a difference in policy which made him go. It wasn't a clash of personalities. The reason is far worse for Labour than that. It was that Freud decided to head over to where the action was (or will soon be). Once that kind of thing starts happening, it usually spells curtains for the government.

You can be pretty confident that there are lots of people right now - civil servants, donors, celebrities -who are also assessing where they can make the most impact, and deciding that they too, like Freud, should throw in their lot with the Conservatives. You wouldn't want to be a Johnny-come-lately to the party after all would you?

Just when it looked like it couldn't get any worse, it's been announed today that Tony Blair - fresh from beating Brown to an audience with Barack Obama - has won $1m for his leadership on the world stage. He won the Dan David Prize at Tel Aviv University in respect of his "foresight", "exceptional intelligence" and "steadfast determination" to end conflicts.

It looks increasingly the case that Teflon Tony got out at the right time.