David Maddox: The numbers game
Just had a look at the latest Scottish sample of the Yougov UK poll published today. This has to be taken with a bucket of salt, because it is the opinion of just 206 people, slightly larger than most samples, but not a lot.
According to the results, for a Westminster the news north of the border looks pretty good for Labour, not bad for the Tories, awful for the Lib Dems and crushingly disappointing for the SNP.
Lab 39% SNP 27% Con 21% LibDem 10% Greens 1%
If one puts this through the calculator at Electoral Calculus, in terms of seats this poll translates into:
Lab 42 (+1) SNP 7 (+1) Con 4 (+3) LibDem 6 (-5) Greens 0
Far better for Labour than the 11 per cent gap behind the Tories in England and Wales. Maybe the Iain Gray/ Jim Murphy partnership is doing the trick for them, although same might be said of the Annabel Goldie/ David Mundell partnership with the Tories now regularly getting into the 20s in Scotland.
However the SNP would be a long way off their target of 20 Scottish seats and the Lib Dems appear to be disappearing from the scene, but, as I said, one small sample an election does not make.
Meanwhile Ladbrokes have chopped the odds on the Scottish budget being passed from 1/3 to 1/4. I would suggest that even with these low odds that is free money for anybody who wants to take a punt.
According to the results, for a Westminster the news north of the border looks pretty good for Labour, not bad for the Tories, awful for the Lib Dems and crushingly disappointing for the SNP.
Lab 39% SNP 27% Con 21% LibDem 10% Greens 1%
If one puts this through the calculator at Electoral Calculus, in terms of seats this poll translates into:
Lab 42 (+1) SNP 7 (+1) Con 4 (+3) LibDem 6 (-5) Greens 0
Far better for Labour than the 11 per cent gap behind the Tories in England and Wales. Maybe the Iain Gray/ Jim Murphy partnership is doing the trick for them, although same might be said of the Annabel Goldie/ David Mundell partnership with the Tories now regularly getting into the 20s in Scotland.
However the SNP would be a long way off their target of 20 Scottish seats and the Lib Dems appear to be disappearing from the scene, but, as I said, one small sample an election does not make.
Meanwhile Ladbrokes have chopped the odds on the Scottish budget being passed from 1/3 to 1/4. I would suggest that even with these low odds that is free money for anybody who wants to take a punt.
Labels: David Maddox, odds, polls
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12:17
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