David Maddox: The numbers game (2)
Just had some interesting data from the Conservatives. They have put together the Scottish samples from the last four polls, which gives a more realistic view of the way things are going because it gives them a sample of around 800 instead of just 200. 
The spin doctor briefing to Annabel Goldie (pictured), the Scottish Conservative leader, is that the poll samples show that Scotland is now "a three horse race," which appears to be getting closer to the truth into terms of vote share, but is nowhere near in share of seats.
The breakdown is as follows:
Conservatives 22% Lab 37% SNP 28% Lib Dems 11%
Using Electoral Calculus's Scottish page that translates in Scottish seats at a Westminster election as:
Conservatives 6 (+5) Lab 40 (-1) SNP 7 (+1) Lib Dems 6 (-5)
The spin doctor briefing to Annabel Goldie (pictured), the Scottish Conservative leader, is that the poll samples show that Scotland is now "a three horse race," which appears to be getting closer to the truth into terms of vote share, but is nowhere near in share of seats. It is interesting how Electoral Calculus reveals the problems both the Tories and SNP have in breaking Labour's grip on Scotland and the Lib Dems' grip on pockets of Scotland. Even with half the Tory support the Lib Dems come up the same number of seats, the SNP only get one extra seat with six per cent more than the Tories, while the vast majority (two thirds) of constituencies stay with Labour even with only just over one third of the popular vote.
Labels: Annabel Goldie, David Maddox, polls
posted by Administrator at
14:50
4 Comments:
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These subsamples, even in aggregate, tell us little. But I wouldn't be surprised. A purely Scottish YouGov poll is being conducted at the moment. It covers voting intentions for Westminster and Holyrood, reactions to the budget defeat and a straight "yes" or "no" to leaving the United Kingdom.
I agree with Scottish Unionist. The sample is just too small. If you look at a poll of polls (http://www.snp.org/node/14695), you get a much bigger picture and in my opinion, more accurate. This would give Labour a lot less to be positive about.
SNP: 33.50%
Labour: 32.50%
Tory: 17.80%
LibDem: 12.00%
This would also put the SNP on to 16 seats, up 10 and Labour down by 9. Des Browne and Mark Lazarowicz would also both lose their seats.
The Conservative poll data also provides some insight into their recent tactics.
The seats they gain are all Labour and Liberal.
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