David Maddox: Lessons in how to play the numbers game
Following my postings on Friday and mention in the comments of an upcoming Scotland-wide Yougov poll, some acquaintances from Labour have been in touch.
It appears they have got their hands on the poll questions and, as you might expect, they have decided to get their attack in early, suggesting that the phraseology of the questions is designed to create a pro-Nationalist result.
In particular they have taken exception to this one:
Given the current economic downturn, who would you trust more to make the right decisions to help Scottish people in their everyday lives, Alex Salmond or Gordon Brown?
They feel that "help the people of Scotland" in a fairer test would be "help us out of the economic crisis."
All of which goes to show the minute detail people on both sides go down to to try to either manipulate or discredit poll results, which may explain some of the spectacular miscalculations of the past in polls.
It perhaps underlines that, in the end, the only poll that counts is the one that involves a ballot box.
For your info here are the poll questions, please feel free to give your answers in the comments section of this posting or on the Steamie Wall:
1. If there were an election to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?
a. Conservative b. Labour c. Liberal Democrat d. SNP e. Some other party f. Wouldn’t vote g. Don't know
2. And thinking about the regional or party vote for the Scottish Parliament, which party list would you vote for?
a. Conservative b. Labour c. Liberal Democrat d. SNP e. Green f. Scottish Socialist Party g. Solidarity h. Some other party i. Wouldn’t vote j. Don't know
3. As you may be aware the SNP government's budget bill was voted down this week. Alex Salmond has threatened to resign as first minister if it is voted down again and has suggested there may have to be a new election for the Scottish parliament. If the budget bill is voted down again and Alex Salmond resigns as First Minister would you prefer:
a. to have chance to vote in a new election for the Scottish parliament?
b. to let political parties decide themselves which party should run Scottish government?
c. Don't know
4. The Scottish budget bill was defeated this week after Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens voted against it. How would you rate the performance of each of the Scottish party leaders in relation to the recent budget process?
Choose from very good, good, average, poor, very poor or don’t know for each of Alex Salmond (SNP), Iain Gray (Labour), Tavish Scott (Lib Dem), Annabel Goldie (Conservative) and Patrick Harvie (Green).
5. Which of the following do you believe would make the best Scottish First Minister?
a. Annabel Goldie b. Alex Salmond c. Iain Gray d. Tavish Scott e. Patrick Harvie f. None of the above g. Don't know
6. Given the current economic downturn, who would you trust more to make the right decisions to help Scottish people in their everyday lives, Alex Salmond or Gordon Brown?
a. Alex Salmond b. Gordon Brown c. Would not trust either of them at all d. Don't know
7. The SNP wishes to hold a referendum on Scottish independence in due course. Voters would be asked whether they agree or disagree "that the Scottish government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state." How would you vote if such a referendum were held tomorrow?
a. YES (i.e. for Scottish independence) b. NO (i.e. against Scottish independence) c. Don’t know d. Would not vote
It appears they have got their hands on the poll questions and, as you might expect, they have decided to get their attack in early, suggesting that the phraseology of the questions is designed to create a pro-Nationalist result.
In particular they have taken exception to this one:
Given the current economic downturn, who would you trust more to make the right decisions to help Scottish people in their everyday lives, Alex Salmond or Gordon Brown?
They feel that "help the people of Scotland" in a fairer test would be "help us out of the economic crisis."
All of which goes to show the minute detail people on both sides go down to to try to either manipulate or discredit poll results, which may explain some of the spectacular miscalculations of the past in polls.
It perhaps underlines that, in the end, the only poll that counts is the one that involves a ballot box.
For your info here are the poll questions, please feel free to give your answers in the comments section of this posting or on the Steamie Wall:
1. If there were an election to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?
a. Conservative b. Labour c. Liberal Democrat d. SNP e. Some other party f. Wouldn’t vote g. Don't know
2. And thinking about the regional or party vote for the Scottish Parliament, which party list would you vote for?
a. Conservative b. Labour c. Liberal Democrat d. SNP e. Green f. Scottish Socialist Party g. Solidarity h. Some other party i. Wouldn’t vote j. Don't know
3. As you may be aware the SNP government's budget bill was voted down this week. Alex Salmond has threatened to resign as first minister if it is voted down again and has suggested there may have to be a new election for the Scottish parliament. If the budget bill is voted down again and Alex Salmond resigns as First Minister would you prefer:
a. to have chance to vote in a new election for the Scottish parliament?
b. to let political parties decide themselves which party should run Scottish government?
c. Don't know
4. The Scottish budget bill was defeated this week after Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens voted against it. How would you rate the performance of each of the Scottish party leaders in relation to the recent budget process?
Choose from very good, good, average, poor, very poor or don’t know for each of Alex Salmond (SNP), Iain Gray (Labour), Tavish Scott (Lib Dem), Annabel Goldie (Conservative) and Patrick Harvie (Green).
5. Which of the following do you believe would make the best Scottish First Minister?
a. Annabel Goldie b. Alex Salmond c. Iain Gray d. Tavish Scott e. Patrick Harvie f. None of the above g. Don't know
6. Given the current economic downturn, who would you trust more to make the right decisions to help Scottish people in their everyday lives, Alex Salmond or Gordon Brown?
a. Alex Salmond b. Gordon Brown c. Would not trust either of them at all d. Don't know
7. The SNP wishes to hold a referendum on Scottish independence in due course. Voters would be asked whether they agree or disagree "that the Scottish government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state." How would you vote if such a referendum were held tomorrow?
a. YES (i.e. for Scottish independence) b. NO (i.e. against Scottish independence) c. Don’t know d. Would not vote
Labels: David Maddox, polls
posted by Administrator at
22:06
3 Comments:
Looks like the Labour acquaintance was wrong. It wasn't an SNP poll. Maybe they knew what was coming and were trying to throw chaff:
Voters back SNP over failed budget
Poll finds Scottish Nationalists would extend their lead over Labour if Alex Salmond called a snap election
Voters blame opposition leaders for this week’s budget fiasco according to a new poll, which reveals the Scottish National party would extend its lead over Labour if Alex Salmond called a snap election.
A YouGov poll commissioned by The Sunday Times reveals that Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens misjudged the public mood by voting down the Scottish government’s £33 billion package.
They rated the first minister’s performance higher than that of any of the other party leaders, giving him an approval rating of +11, compared with -17 for Iain Gray, -19 for Tavish Scott and -25 for Patrick Harvie.
In the constituency vote the SNP is on 38%, Labour on 32%, the Tories on 13% and Lib Dems on 12%. In the regional vote the nationalists are on 34%, Labour 28%, Tories 15%, Lib Dems 11%, Greens 6%, Scottish Socialists 4%, Solidarity 1% and others 2%.
In the event of an election, the SNP would increase its lead, retaining all of its 47 seats at the expense of Labour on 44 (-2) and the Lib Dems on 13 (-3). The biggest winners would be the Greens on five (+3), the Scottish Socialists on two (+2) and the Conservatives on 18 (+1).
Question 3 has some duff answers - a & c are the same, and so too are b & d. Shurely shome mishtake?
Andrew, James... fair points, so I've edited the posting.
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