Wild Political Predictions 2009 - Eddie Barnes

Ten Wild Predictions for the next twelve months.

1. Having failed to persuade Brown to go for a general election, Lord Mandelson will resign from the cabinet in June. In a statement he offers his full support for Gordon Brown and tells party donors and MPs that "the last thing we need right now is a leadership challenge". Friends of Mandelson then let it be known that "any speculation that Peter would stand as party leader is plain daft". Leadership challenge? Party leader? As speculation goes into over-drive, Mandelson issues a personal statement. "The damaging speculation about an imminent leadership contest involving myself and perhaps one or two other Labour Ministers who may yet emerge in the coming weeks must stop," he declares. It doesn't.

2. Up to a dozen MPs will be forced to quit following the long-awaited and much-delayed publication of their expense claims forms, which reveal wholesale abuse of the system.

3. ID Cards will be scrapped.

4. The Conservative lead in the polls will head into the stratosphere, as LibDem voters cross over en masse to back David Cameron, wooed by the newly installed Shadow Chancellor, Ken Clarke.

5. Tommy Sheridan will win Celebrity Big Brother.

6. As their poll figures slide inexorably towards single figures, the Scottish Liberal Democrats will announce they are holding a vote of party members on whether to back a referendum on Scottish independence.

7. Scottish Labour will decide not to force Alex Salmond's resignation by declining to vote down his annual budget, to be unveiled this spring.

8. The SNP Government will suffer its first Ministerial resignation.

9. Barack Obama will visit North Queensferry during his "At Home with Gordon" visit. It will rain for the duration.

10. Cherie Blair will announce she is going to become an MP.

Hamish Macdonell - New Year messages

NOT to be outdone by HM the Queen and her Christmas message, Alex Salmond has got a New Year message.
And, as the Queen gets to televise hers, so the First Minister has streamed a video of his - although, at the moment, he is expected to lag behind somewhat in audience numbers.
His theme? Rabbie Burns and Homecoming 2009 will help us get through the tough times ahead.
Whether he will move it to Christmas when he becomes president, nobody seems to know ...
ends

Scotland on Sunday Cartoon

By Iain Green

The Steamie: Merry Christmas

A very merry Christmas to you all from everyone here at The Steamie.

Tom Peterkin: National Identity

As 2008 draws to a close I thought it would be interesting to reflect on the opinions of a most colourful Scot, who sadly passed away in October this year aged 90.
Brigadier Frank Coutts was a policeman, soldier and an international rugby player who had a distinguished war serving in the King's Own Scottish Borderers. Readers may well question why his views are of any interest to a politics blog.
But an extract from his volume of reminiscences "The Golden Thread: Mair blethers from the Brig" published a couple of years ago shows that he had a very strong notion of his own national identity.
"I'm as Scots as they come," wrote the Brig. "Born just off the Great Western Road in Glasgow, the fourth son of a Church of Scotland minister, I went to school in Glasgow, served most of my life in Scottish Regiments, married a fellow Glaswegian who was born just round the corner from me, played rugby for Scotland and played the bagpipes to quite a high standard.
"But I am British (Scots), not the other way round."
What would Alex Salmond make of that? It would certainly make an interesting contribution to the SNP's National Conversation.

David Maddox: Amazing coincidences

Regular readers of the Steamie will know that Alex Salmond, Scotland's First Minister, was made a "state visit" to Catalonia this month in the Spanish regions capital Barcelona.
Was it mere coincidence that the the football loving FM should be there during the much anticipated Barca Real Madrid game at the Nou Camp? Apparently not, he was given a much coveted ticket to the game as a guest of honour.
It's a tough life at the top!
(Worth noting that this is the 100th blog of the Steamie, not too a bad landmark to reach in less than 25 days).

Gerri Peev: Pesto needs mortar

Well, at least Panorama needs a blast. Sometimes there is just not enough bang for the buck. The BBC's endless trailing of the Panorama documentary: The Year Britain's Bubble Burst, offered more teasing than a peep show.

It boasted interviews with some of the most significant players in the run-up to the near collapse of banking as we know it. Robert Peston, the Beeb's economics editor, even bemoaned the fact the programme was only half an hour long on his blog, meaning that some of the juicy interviews ended on the cutting room floor.

It is odd, then, that the editors of the Beeb deemed it more interesting to devote more than half the programme to the journalist behind the story. Talented though he is, surely viewers wanted to know more about what Hector Sants (FSA boss), Alistair Darling, John Gieve (deputy governor of the Bank of England who admitted he did not have a clue) and Barclays' boss John Varley thought than why Peston decided to become a journalist. No doubt Peston is slightly embarrassed about being the focus of the documentary himself.

One more thing: the BBC's gloating about how Peston had an exclusive scoop about the bank bail out in October is not entirely true. Bill Jamieson, The Scotsman's executive editor, had the scoop on our front page story in our first editions on October 7. That means it was on the page many hours before the BBC had it online or broadcast the news.

The BBC has form in this, it tried to claim a story as its own a few weeks ago about RBS job losses that we had run on that day's front page.

The Steamie: Christmas blogging

Blogging will be light on The Steamie over Christmas as our politicians recharge their batteries at home and hearth.

But we'll be building up a full head of steam again quicker than you can say Pepto Bismol.

Tom Peterkin on heavy metal rockers

Like David Maddox, I salute the SNP MSP Christine Grahame who has tabled a parliamentary motion acknowledging the "musical contribution" of the rock band AC/DC. As a native of Angus, I was glad to see that her motion mentioned the late lamented Bon Scott, the original lead singer of the band who came from Kirriemuir.
As every ACDC fan knows, Bon tragically died after a night of heavy drinking in a car parked outside a friend's flat in South London on February 19, 1980.
It has often been said that Bon's first muscial influence was his father Chick who was a drummer in the Kirrie Pipe Band.
The following link should take you to a picture of the aforementioned band photographed after the war.

www.practicalpipers.co.uk/id119.htm

On the left hand side of the middle row is a certain Charlie Scott wearing a drummer's sling and drummer's plaid. I have often wondered if this is Bon's dad Chick. Perhaps someone from Kirremuir could enlighten me.

Kenny Farquharson: Obama online

One of the crucial factors in Barack Obama's US presidential election victory - apart from his charisma, his intellect, his integrity and his opponent - was his campaign's use of the internet.

It was the way he raised his cash - tens of thousands of small donations, solicited online, gave him the edge on McCain's big cheques from big business. But the real revolution was in the way the internet was used to foster a direct relationship between candidate and voter.

I joined up to his Facebook group and received regular emails from him. Okay, I know they were written by an aide and sent out in their millions, but it never failed to give me a small shiver when an email from "Barack Obama" appeared in my in-box, and the message started with "Hi Kenny..."

The remarkable thing is that now, seven weeks after the election, the emails keep on coming. And their content gives an insight into how how the lessons learned about the internet during the campaign are likely to be carried through into the Obama administration.

One email landed last night, urging supporters to hold house meetings to discuss what the administration's policy priorities should be. There was even a link to a video of one such meeting to help set the tone.

http://my.barackobama.com/meetingvideo

House meetings were one of the most effective tools of the Obama campaign - a good example of the revolution we're seeing in participatory politics in the US.

I wonder which of the UK parties will learn these lessons most effectively. David Cameron was the first party leader to start a blog, and last year the Scottish Labour leadership candidates all had a presence on social networking websites.

But we've yet to see anyone really use the net to bring politics into hearts and homes in the same way as Obama showed was possible.

Will it be the big political battleground of 2009, potentially a general election year?

David Maddox: talking of eccentric MSPs....

I feel that my previous blog on Chris Harvie where I decried a lack of colourful characters in Holyrood unfairly failed to mention the Nationalist MSP Christine Grahame.
If there is one MSP who can be relied on to come up with something completely from left field it is Ms Grahame. We all remember her drive to reclaim Berwick for Scotland and she has not given up yet on trying to repatriate the bones of Scotland's exiled monarch Mary Queen of Scots.
Her Christmas gift for hacks is a Christine Grahame classic - a motion exalting the greatness of the Australian rock band AC/DC.
Some may say that MSPs should concentrate on more important and indeed genuinely Scottish issues, but at least nobody could accuse Ms Grahame of being boring.
Here is a full copy of her motion:

AC/DC, We Salute you. That this parliament recognises the significant musical contribution of the rock band AC/DC, whose founding members Angus and Malcolm Young moved from Scotland to Australia, joined with Bon Scott, another Scottish imigri to create what has become a musical legend with the band selling an estimated 150 million albums worldwide and establishing themselves as the best selling rock band of all time; notes that the popularity of AC/DC continues to grow and welcomes their forthcoming performance at Scotland's National Football Stadium on June 30th; and finally acknowledges the musical inspiration the band has provided to thousands of Scottish musicians who have themselves gone on to great international success.

Gerri Peev: Brown X Factor bluff?

THERE was a brief moment during today's Downing Street press conference when Gordon Brown came close to repeating Tony Blair's habit of, um, embellishment in a bid to appear as normal as possible.

His predecessor famously was mocked when, trying to play up his North East roots, he claimed to have sat behind the goal at the Gallowgate end of St James's Park, watching Newcastle United's Jackie Milburn. (It turned out that the footballer had retired when TB was just four, and that terraces were only replaced by seats in the 1990s).

Today, Mr Brown spoke about how he would download the X Factor single by winner Alexandra Burke. "I think it is as a great song. I happened to hear some of it on Saturday night," he said.

Really? Wow the PM must have annoyed his hosts as he was meant to be in Delhi on Saturday night. Maybe I should be more generous. It turns out that Mr Brown was NOT attempting to exaggerate but had recorded the show. What he meant was that he heard some of the song FROM Saturay night. Hallelujah for that.

David Maddox: Seasonal greetings from Holyrood's freeist spirit

Nationalist MSP Chris Harvie has had his critics since being elected to office last year. There was the famous incident over his criticisms of Lockerbie, his attack on the dress of Scotland's youth, his speech where he called Blue Peter evil and Hitler imaginative.
Some describe him unkindly as the nutty professor and he walked off with the Free Spirit of the Year award at the Scottish Politicians of the Year do earlier this year for being eccentric.
But I for one think that Holyrood would be much worse off without him. There are too many colourless politicians, afraid to speak their mind who will simply just toe the party line. Most of his colleague clap and laugh at their great leader's jokes on cue. Only Labour's Lord George Foulkes' rivals him for entertainment and few can spout off as many random but imaginative ideas and thoughts in a five minute conversation.
I remember once one of the SNP spindoctors, employed to make sure the MSPs are always on message, admitted that Prof Harvie was totally out of control and it was pointless writing quotes for him. If that is not a badge of honour then what is?
And to underline his individuality Prof Harvie has been handing out his own special festive cards which he picked up on a recent trip to the Lake District. He visited the house of the Victorian prophet and thinker John Ruskin, whom he describes as a Scots Scot, at Brantwood and picked up a comic version of his Ruskin's thoughts entitled "how to be rich" done in the style of the Beano.
Apparently it comes to the reader with "a free, fully guaranteed guilt complex" and cost £1.
As Prof Harvie put it to me: "Far more entertaining than a Christmas card and cheaper, so thoroughly Scottish all round."

David Maddox: Award winning curry versus recycled beer

Jim Murphy, Labour's new Secretary of State for Scotland, has made quite an impression in the last nine weeks since he was elevated to the cabinet. At last there seems to be somebody from the UK government willing and able to take on Alex Salmond.
So it was that the two Christmas gatherings by Scotland's high hegions this week seemed to almost represented two rival courts in a medieval city.
But the Christmas party bragging honours probably went to Mr Salmond this year. At his do in Bute House (the First Minister's official residence) on Tuesday for journalists he managed to pull out the curry chef of the year to provide the night's cuisine.
Meanwhile on Thursday in Melville Crescent Mr Murphy had a star studded cast of civic Scotland, including the Cardinal Keith O'Brien, but the fair on offer was less impressive, perhaps reflecting these more frugal times of the credit crunch.
Guests had a choice between wine and beer to go with their crisps. And the beer, it turned out, was left over bottles from a job lot bought for a Polish National Day reception last year.
"We don't like anything to go to waste," one of Mr Murphy's officials noted.

Kenny Farquharson: Crumbs!

Iain Gray must be mad.

At this time of year, with Hogmanay in sight, is it really wise for the Scottish Labour leader to make disparaging comments about a great Scottish institution?

I refer, of course, the crumbliest flakiest biscuity treat in the world - Scottish shortbread.

Gray issued a press release this afternoon that berated First Minister Alex Salmond for various failings, personal and political, and summed up with these words:

"What is Alex Salmond's response to the economic crisis? I see his he is launching a commemorative shortbread tin tomorrow."

Now, that's just bad politics.

Does Gray not realise the esteem in which the glorious petticoat tail is held in this country?

Does he not appreciate how highly the Scots value the buttery delight of a good shortbread finger?

These are matters that transcend mere politics.

Gray was referring to an event in the First Ministerial diary for tomorrow when Salmond is launching the Walkers shortbread range to celebrate The Homecoming 2009 - the event designed to attract the diaspora and their dollars back to Scotland.

The First Minister has The Steamie's full support on this one.

What next, Iain, black bun??????

David Maddox: the girl band strikes back

It is difficult to know if the Labour MSPs have been partaking in too much festive merriment of the sort that will keep them from their cars.
However, following the success or otherwise of the "boy band" at their Christmas party in Holyrood earlier this week rumours are abound that the girls intend to push them aside in next year's event.
As reported by my colleague Hamish, the not so young MSPs Michael MacMahon, Ken McIntosh, John Park and Frank McAveety made up the boy band.
Pauline McNeil is said to be a decent folk singer and there is now talk of Johann Lamont and Marlyn Glen - or "Marlyn er whatsername" as one of her colleagues referred to her today - making up a girl band to give the boys some competition.
The mind boggles.

Hamish Macdonell - Not much peace or goodwill

THE final bout of First Minister's Questions of the year always has a rather rowdy, end-of-term feel to it, and so it proved today.
Alex Salmond was pinned down on the Scottish Futures Trust by Labour's Iain Gray, on the lack of action on fraud by Tory Annabel Goldie and on the credit crunch by Lib Dem Tavish Scott, but he was ready.
Clutching a survey from The Big Issue, the First Minister lambasted Gray and Scott over their Christmas wish lists (each had been asked to say what they wanted for Christmas).
Salmond deflected Gray's attacks by revealing the Labour leader wanted Barrack Obama style sunglasses and that Scott wanted a seat in the House of Lords.
What Salmond did not say was that he had told the Big Issue he wanted a year's supply of Lucozade for his Christmas (what no Irn Bru?).
However, Miss Goldie was the only one to fight back, in her own inimitable way, scolding the First Minister as if he were a wayward schoolboy.
"Stop talking drivel!" she snorted.
The jousts resume in January.
ends

Hamish Macdonell - Labour's boy band

LABOUR MSPs took over the whole of their ground floor last night (TUES) for their annual revue.
The highlight of which was a 'boy band' featuring the young, and not so young MSPs Michael MacMahon, Ken McIntosh, John Park and Frank McAveety.
One of those present said afterwards: "That Ken McIntosh, he really can sing."
What was left unsaid about the other members of the band said it all really.
For Frank McAveety, though, the revue has provided a much needed focus for his working life. He spent so long preparing for his role as compere that one of his colleagues said: "I have never seen Frank work so hard at anything, even when he was a minister."
ends

Tom Peterkin: Hung Parliament

An interesting poll in today's Guardian suggests that Labour is rapidly catching up with the Conservatives. Although the figures indicate that Gordon Brown has yet to overhaul David Cameron, the ICM poll will no doubt fuel more feverish speculation of a General Election early next year.
According to the survey, the gap between Labour and the Tories has narrowed from 15 points to five. Will Brown bottle it like last time? Will his economic policies look quite as clever a few months from now? Will he be tempted to go to the country before the worst of the recession kicks in? Can Dave be trusted with the economy?
One likely outcome is a hung parliament. Given his reputation as a ladies' man, one presumes that Nick (Cleggover) Clegg is no stranger to fervent wooing. Ardent advances of a political nature can be expected by the Lib Dem leader in the weeks ahead. Just how welcome those from Brown and Cameron prove to be remains to be seen.

David Maddox: the Name Game

Jack McConnell may seem like a distant memory these days in terms of being First Minister and he may still be smarting from missing out on his cushy number in Malawi, but he can at least take some satisfaction in reclaiming one top spot.
Yes, the most popular names of the year for babies have just been published and "Jack" is back at number one. When Lewis took top spot from Jack in 2007 it was seen as symbolic of the former First Minister's demise in that year's election.
But, it seems that the influence of the current incumbent is having an impact on our new borns too. Alex is up 19 places to 67th equal. Apparently 100 baby boys new to the world in 2008 now bear the same name as Wee Eck, a long way behind the 692 Jacks.
However, to be fair on Mr Salmond, it seems that to get into this particular top spot he would have to perform a cultural revelution perhaps greater than the one needed for full independence. In the last ten years Jack and Lewis have been the top two names for baby boys in Scotland.

David Maddox: For Foulkes Sake (4)

Never let it be said that the good Baron of Cumnock - Lord George Foulkes MSP of the Lothians region - does not know how to win friends and influence people.
Having managed over the last couple of weeks to have found almost every way possible to insult BBC Scotland - "pretty poor," "parochial" and "pro-SNP" were among his more tender remarks - I gather Lord Foulkes has been invited to a drinks do this evening with BBC Scotland staff by the Corporation's Scottish chief Ken MacQuarrie. What's more the noble lord has accepted the offer.
Far be it for me to give advice to a seasoned politician, but he might want to check what's in his drink.

David Maddox: The Catalonia Express (otherwise known as "Gi'us a job boss")

Alex Salmond has shown no inclination of reshuffling the pack and promoting and sacking people to his ministerial team. This, however, has not stopped ambitious (and bored) backbenchers, who would quite like a chauffeur driven Mondeo, desperately trying to impress the First Minister.
The most obvious example is Alex Neil's almost permanant fixture on Newsnight Scotland, but this is nothing compared to the SNP's hero of Cunninghame North Kenny Gibson, who won the previously safe Labour seat in 2007 with a majority of 48.
It seems another "historic" SNP victory happened there last week which passed most of the world by. The Nats won a council by-election in North Ayrshire with a swing of 15 per cent in their favour.
So pleased was Mr Gibson that he did his own bit of research into why the party had polled so well. And so keen was he to make an impression on the his boss that he faxed the results directly to Mr Salmond at the Presidential Palace in Catalonia where the First Minister was on an official visit.
Amazingly Mr Gibson's survey revealed that the excellent polling result was because of the popularity of their local member of the Scottish Parliament.
Now if that's not a desperate plea for a job I don't know what is.

Hamish Macdonell - spinners' spat

THERE is an end of term feel to the parliament, which is perhaps why spin doctors are being a little mischievous.
Faced with a raft of depressing health statistics today, the SNP seized on childhood obesity figures to claim that all the overweight children in P1 to P5 got fat under the Labour Liberal Executive.
They suggested Ross Finnie, the Liberal Democrat health spokesman, had been effectively leading the children to the chip van himself.
In response, it was pointed out that more people had gone on to anti-depressants since the SNP came to power.
Roll on Christmas ...

David Maddox: On the road to ruin

We all know the dangers of alcohol causing fights and unseemly scenes and in politics there seems to be no difference. It seems that, as predicted in my Inside Holyrood column this week (http://news.scotsman.com/politics/David--Maddox-AntiUnion-sentiment.4792210.jp), Labour have not even waited for the drink driving debate on Thursday to snap at the baiting by First Minister Alex Salmond on the issue.
In last week's First Minister's questions Mr Salmond bemoaned the way the recent UK road safety survey had not included a question on lowering the drink driving limits. The underlying message was clear - innocent Scottish lives are being lost because the nasty UK government refuses to change the drink driving laws. In other words the First minister is using yet another reserved issue as a stick for which to beat the Union.
But the premise of Salmond's argument is not true, the UK government has said. Following my column on Monday, a rather agitated spindoctor from the Scottish Office has been in touch with me to correct Mr Salmond's version of events.
"The link here is to the executive summary of the consultation document – could not be clearer about drink driving as one of the five issues, and explicit in that section about question of changing limit. Even with the strictest reading of Salmond’s words, I still think there are two questions which constitute 'direct' reference to lowering the drink driving limit - http://www.dft.gov.uk/consultations/open/compliance/executive."
He went on: "I would have thought that if there is a specific Scottish dimension to this (which I am not convinced there is particularly) then the time of civil servants in Scotland would be better spent in providing a decent, evidence-based submission to the consultation rather than providing briefing material for a debate in the Scottish Parliament which is little more than a cynical use of a sensitive issue to foster separatist thinking."
Expect this to rumble on on Thursday afternoon.

Tom Peterkin on gout

More alarming Scottish health statistics today including the little known fact that 10,000 overweight Scots suffer from gout - the condition commonly associated with corpulent toffs with a fondness for claret and rich food.
It will be of little consolation to those suffering from this painful affliction, which contrary to the popular image crosses all class barriers, that their symptoms were shared by Henry VIII, Sir Isaac Newton, William Pitt the Elder, Galileo and Theodore Roosevelt.
A famous Scottish sufferer was Simon Fraser, Lord Lovat - the wily veteran Jacobite known as the old fox who, in 1747, was the last person to be publicly beheaded in Britain.
As Lovat discovered, public executions can be even worse for one's health than gout. Happily, they went out of fashion some time ago.
But today's statistics do suggest that our politicians face a huge challenge to turn around Scotland's dismal health record.
They showed that 20% of Primary 1 children have been classified as overweight, including 7.9% as obese and 3.9% as severely obese.
It was Mary Scanlon, the Tory Health spokeswoman, who pointed out it has been estimated that obesity may have accounted for nearly 500,000 cases of high blood pressure, 50,000 cases of coronary heart disease, nearly 900 cancers, over 30,000 people with type 2 diabetes, 14,000 people with osteoarthritis as well as the 10,000 people with gout.
Food for thought as we lick our lips in anticipation of the Christmas booze and food fest.

Hamish Macdonell - Christmas party mixup

LIB DEM MSP Alison McInnes should be a little more careful with her corporate friends.
She agreed to sponsor the Institute of Revenues, Rating and Valuation's Christmas reception in the garden lobby of the Scottish Parliament tonight.
But it is now obvious Ms McInnes had not paid cloee enough attention to that august body's views on the flagship Lib Dem policy of local income tax.
"Local authorities face a gaping hole in their funding under proposals to introduce a local income tax in Scotland, " the IRRV said in response to the Scottish Government's consultation.
The Steamie wonders whether Ms McInnes will have the courage to bring this delicate matter up tonight when she sups wine and mingles with her friends from the IRRV.
ends

George Kerevan: Meanwhile in Norway

Norway has just announced that it is going to dip into its $332 billion oil fund to finance a spot of reflation.

The oil-rich Norwegians have squirreled away their oil revenues and now have the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund after Abu Dhabi.

According to the Financial Times, which has no political axe to grind, “Oslo is one of the best-placed governments in the world to spend its way out of the downturn.”

Unlike the UK, which has been running a structural budget deficit for years, the Norwegians don’t have to borrow to boost public spending. The other week, Alistair Darling announced he was going to borrow £10,000 for every man, woman and child in Britain.

It is normal for Labour (and the Tories and Lib Dems) to berate the SNP – erroneously - for wanting to pays the bills of an independent Scotland out of fluctuating oil revenues. In fact, it is the London Treasury which has always used erratic oil revenues for immediate revenue purposes – which is why it always gets its sums wrong and has to resort either to borrowing or putting up taxes.

There is something deeply Freudian about blaming your political opponent for something you do yourself. In fact, the SNP has always supported the sort of oil fund run by the Norwegians, which saves fluctuating oil revenues in a capital fund.

Meanwhile, in Ireland, they have just pumped £9 billion into recapitalising their banks. Note: this is proportionately more (relative to the size of the Irish economy) than Alistair Darling put into recapitalising RBS, HBOS (R.I.P.) and Lloyds TSB.

So much for suggestions (on this side of the Irish Sea) that Ireland is too small a nation to protect its own financial system.

Now, what was it I heard (from Jim Murphy) about the so-called “Arc of Insolvency”?

George Kerevan: Real votes versus polls

An interesting bit of analysis on politicalbetting.com regarding local by-elections in Scotland.

In the three Scottish council by-elections in 2007 the combined results were:

SNP … 3236 … 35% … +1%
LAB … 1913 … 21% … -3%
CON … 1602 … 17% … -1%
LIB … 1770 … 19% … +3%
OTH … 656 … 7% … 0%

These were Midstocket in Aberdeen in August, Helensburgh in Argyll in October and Lochee in Dundee in November.

Result: a two per cent swing to the SNP from Labour in what people view as a very good year for the SNP.

Now look at the four last Scottish council by-elections in 2008 which were all held on the night of or since Glenrothes.

The combined results were:

SNP … 6360 … 36% … +9%
LAB … 6807 … 38% … -1%
CON … 2001 … 11% … -1%
LIB … 1314 … 7% … 0%
OTH … 1248 … 7% … -8%

These were Forth in Edinburgh and Baillieston in Glasgow in November (night of Glenrothes); and Ballochmyle in East Ayrshire and Kilbirnie & Beith in North Ayrshire in December.

Result: a five per cent swing from Labour to the SNP.

The seats the four latest ones are in core Labour areas while the three 2007 ones are in more SNP territory.

There is clearly a "Brown bounce" going on but I'm intrigued by these numbers.

Hamish Macdonell - Sunday stories

DOOM and gloom for the most part in the Sunday papers, with predictions of two million on the dole by Christmas and depression in the Scottish financial services maket following the HBOS takeover vote.
No wonder then, that Gordon Brown is away in Pakistan and Alex Salmond is in Catalonia.
One story to brighten up this cold and wet winter though, Tommy Sheridan is reported to have been lined up to star in the next Celebrity Big Brother House.
While his profile has dipped somewhat in the last year or so and he needs a fillip, does he really want to go down this route?
After all, look what happened to his comrade George Galloway.
Miaow ...
ends

Kenny Farquharson: Off to sunny Spain

The Steamie hears that First Minister Alex Salmond is heading off to Catalonia tonight on an official visit.

It's an intriguing prospect.

The nationalist movement has dominated politics in Catalonia for a generation - the legendary Jordi Pujol ruled for more than 20 years before being finally beaten in 2003.

In that time Pujol didn't exactly bust a gut to demand full independence.

On the contrary, he seemed content to rule within the context of a unified Spain, with a high degree of autonomy from Madrid.

That autonomy was enhanced in 2006 after a referendum held by the new government - a socialist-led coalition.

And Catalonia thrives - politically, culturally and economically.

In other words, Catalonia follows the model that Salmond rejects for Scotland's role within the UK.

It'll be interesting to see how he plays this one.

Kenny Farquharson: Flat-pack policies for Labour?

Labour MSP Margaret Curran has been in Sweden looking for ideas on how to get her party back into power.

She's been speaking to members of the Social Democrat party who - like Scottish Labour - know what it's like to be kicked out of government after losing the trust of the people.

So are we going to see some Ikea-style flat-pack policies being imported to help Scottish Labour? Is party leader Iain Gray a dab hand with a screwdriver?

Gray told a Policy Forum meeting in Stirling today: "One lesson we've learned from Sweden is the Social Democrats approach to regaining power. They said to the Swedish people: 'You sacked us now we want to reapply for the job'. The Policy Forum's role is to prepare our job application to the people of Scotland."

Just remember to count the rawl plugs, Iain.

Kenny Farquharson: A clip round the ear

Paul "Iron Man" Martin is a hard man to please when it comes to law'n'order.

No measure, it seems, is tough enough for the Labour MSP and community safety spokesman.

Take the Glasgow initiative to crack down on the city's gang culture, which is getting lots of publicity this week.

Inspired by a programme developed in Boston, it is designed to coax young hoodlums away from gangs and into education. It's accompanied by hardline policing that holds every gang member responsible for any act of violence committed by any other gang member.

Soft option it ain't.

Yet Martin has today put out a press release dismissing the £1.6m programme as a "hug a hoodie" scheme. He seems to be suggesting it actually panders to thuggery.

I shudder to think what would happen if Martin ever made it into power as a justice minister - he'd make Fergus Ewing look like Polly Toynbee.

Come on, Paul, show us your softer side once in a while. It's the sign of a real man, y'know.

David Maddox: The Final Countdown (for some)

The number is finally up today for an institution that much of the nation has done its calculations by for many years and millions of eyes will be fixed to their TV screens to see the final moment. The end of this great British institution has vexed politicians and the media and several campaigns to save it have been in vain. In the end the money was just not there to keep it going.
I am of course referring to Carol Vordeman's last appearance on Countdown which will be screened this afternoon on Channel 4. She leaves because she refused to take a pay cut from £800,000 a year to £100,000. In 26 years she has defied nature and transformed from a shy dowdy number turner with good mental arithmetic skills to glamour puss TV personality who can turn both numbers and letters. Tears will be shed, but only one job will be lost with the hole left filled by a new presenter.
About 120 miles down the road from the studios in Leeds to the NEC in Birmingham we will very shortly hear of the final demise of the Bank of Scotland in any form other than a Scottish front for Lloyds. It has been lost because the UK Government were not willing to put up an estimated £500 million to keep it independent and its own board were set on pushing through the takeover.
It will be the end of 300 years of history which saw the bank go from being a dowdy Scottish venture to an international glamour puss of the financial world. Tears will be shed, thousands of jobs lost and it will leave significant holes in high streets across the UK and in Edinburgh's status as an international centre for financial services.

Hamish Macdonell - Party season

INVITATIONS are being circulated around the media for the First Minister's annual Christmas drinks do in Bute House next week.
These have changed somewhat over the years. Henry McLeish and his wife Julie wanted to be as friendly as possible so invited political correspondents and their partners, for the one year they hosted the event.
Jack McConnell treated this part of the McLeish legacy much like the rest and ditched it, inviting only political correspondents.
He did though, dress down and drop his tie on several occasions, hoping others would follow his lead, which they didn't.
Alex Salmond has not invited partners, nor has he dropped his tie but he has introduced his own innovation - he serves curry.
He obviously thinhs the Holyrood press pack is easily bought. He might just be right.
ends

George Kerevan: £ tanks again.

This morning, the £ sank to its lowest level ever against the euro. Should we cheer or cry?

According to the BBC website, “a strong euro is good for the UK economy. It makes imports from the eurozone more expensive, while UK exports become cheaper to those paying for them in euros. This is clearly a boost to the UK manufacturing sector in these difficult times. The eurozone accounts for about 60 per cent of UK exports.”

Alas, this is economic illiteracy.

Recession in the EU means that overall demand for British goods in Europe will decline next year. This is predicted in the Pre-Budget Report: "Recent strong import demand from Europe is not expected to continue in 2009, while recession in the US is also likely to reduce demand for UK exports."

We may also see something called the J-curve effect – things get worse before they get better. A cheaper pound means that those UK manufacturers who can sell to Europe will now get fewer euros.

We should also remember that while the EU is our biggest market, they sell more to us than we sell to them. The UK had a total trade deficit of £32 billion with the EU27 in 2006. This was made up of a trade in goods deficit of £32 billion but also a trade deficit in services of £6 million.

A more expensive euro may reduce some imports, but I’d bet we will go on purchasing EU goods and services because we make so little here. In which case, the more expensive euro will boost UK inflation as well as reduce the available cash we have in our pockets to buy British goods.

David Maddox: For Foulkes Sake (3)

Having dismissed BBC Scotland as "pro-SNP" it seems that the noble Lord George Foulkes, Baron of Cumnock has launched his own TV channel on youtube. It comes as little shock that it offers a strongly pro-Labour viewpoint.
We have been promised weekly updates from one of Holyrood's big personalities, although he will need to improve on his blog - appropriately called For Foulkes Sake - which was not updated from April to November.
Anybody interested in seeing Lord George's take on the week and whether he rivals BBC's Brian Taylor in more than girth should click on the following link: http://uk.youtube.com/georgefoulkes

George Kerevan: Our friends in Germany

I've been writing for some time that the Westminster Government is giving a misleading account of its influence in the rest of the world as regards the economic crisis.

This has been confirmed by Peer Steinbrück, the German finance minister, in an interview with NEWSWEEK. You can find the whole piece at www.newsweek.com


Newsweek: What is wrong with the stimulus proposals?

Steinbrück: The speed at which proposals are put together under pressure that don't even pass an economic test is breathtaking and depressing. Our British friends are now cutting their value-added tax. We have no idea how much of that stores will pass on to customers. Are you really going to buy a DVD player because it now costs £39.10 instead of £39.90? All this will do is raise Britain's debt to a level that will take a whole generation to work off. The same people who would never touch deficit spending are now tossing around billions. The switch from decades of supply-side politics all the way to a crass Keynesianism is breathtaking. When I ask about the origins of the crisis, economists I respect tell me it is the credit-financed growth of recent years and decades. Isn't this the same mistake everyone is suddenly making again, under all the public pressure?

The Benefits crackdown - Eddie Barnes

The government's welfare reform bill, published today, will have huge implications for Scotland, where one in ten of the working age population is on Incapacity Benefit. Ministers are calling time on the culture of lifelong benefits, and are going to apply equal measures of carrot and stick to get people back to work.

The differences between Labour and the Tories are minimal in this: the Conservatives don't really argue with the idea, so much as accuse Labour of having nicked theirs. The SNP is more cautious. SNP MP John Mason declares today: "What would not acceptable is to pile pressure and sanctions on very vulnerable people who are genuinely incapacitated. That will cause fear for many who are living on low incomes.” Among the interest groups - Age Concern, Mencap etc - there is also a fair degree of wait-and-see.

Work and Pensions Secretary James Purnell is insisting that the benefits of the genuinely ill are safe. Their focus is on those who they say could work if given the opportunity.

It will take a massive government effort to turn this around. But the rewards are equally vast. The social cost of the benefits culture in Scotland has been documented by public health officials who now say that worklessness is the most significant risk to public health Scotland faces. One researcher has even calculated that the health of someone who has been out of a job for a lengthy period of time is as bad as someone who smokes 200 cigarettes every day.

And in terms of cash, Scotland's benefit bill could be cut by £1bn a year if this works. That will have a marked impact on the great debate about Scotland's deficit/surplus, so perhaps the SNP - while opposing the measures in public - are hoping in private that it comes off.

Hamish Macdonell - new bridge, old money.

SO now we know. The Scottish Government has just announced that there will be a new Forth Bridge, but it will be a much smaller version than planned, it will cost less to build and the existing bridge will be pressed into action as a public transport bridge.
The crucial part of this is the funding. The Scottish Government believes that, because it has scaled back on the size of the new bridge, it can now pay for it through the Scottish block.
The new bridge was going to cost £4 billion. Now it will cost £2 billion.
It does seem that the SNP government has pulled a rabbit out of a hat - if it can do what it says it can.
But crucial questions remain. First, where is the Scottish Futures Trust? If the SFT, the SNP's flagship funding mechansim cannot be used for this project, then will it ever be used? Is it now dead?
Second, if the existing bridge is not up to the task of carrying public transport (buses) then the new, cheap, bridge will not be up to the task of carrying all the traffic crossing the Forth. This is a gamble, a huge gamble.
One more thing, though, Stewart Stevenson, the transport minister, said he was thinking about putting trams on the old bridge to take people to Fife. For a government which has been absolutely hostile to trams, this is something of a conversion, on the road to Lochgelly maybe?
ends

George Kerevan: Reaping the whirlwind

I’ve had an email from a special advisor to one of our Westminster Government ministers, taking me to task on my criticisms of the police raid on Damian Green’s private office at the House of Commons. Sent by Blackberry, of course.

He writes: “One, really sober and senior civil servant tell me they are really perturbed by the Tory tactics over the Damian Green case. They can't understand how politicians who aspire to be in government within the next 18 months would want to undermine the utter loyalty and neutrality of the ministerial private office. It is the core of our non-politicised civil service that all Ministers have unconditional trust in their private office. If that goes then you move to the European (and Australian) model where a Cabinet minister appoints all their office from political ranks. With the result that last year the incoming Rudd government [in Australia] appointed 550 special advisers. Is that really what the Tories want?”

He adds: “A future Tory government will reap the whirlwind when they discover there are more Guardian readers than Tory PPCs in the civil service.”

I accept these points. But this does not alter the fact that there was no need to use the dangerous conspiracy laws to go after Green and his informant – there are other, less provocative procedures. The style of the police intervention was a calculated attempt to intimidate the Tories. That too will backfire on democracy.

Ian Swanson - Bridge building is an expensive business

Today’s the day we should finally learn how the Scottish Government plans to finance the new Forth Road Bridge.
Transport Minister Stewart Stevenson is due to make a statement on the Strategic Transport Projects Review in parliament this afternoon.
The project is estimated to cost £4.2 billion - but with the scheduled opening of the new bridge eight years away, who knows what the final price will be.
Options for funding such a massive scheme are limited.
The SNP has set its face against the Private Finance Initiative.
Having abolished tolls on the existing bridge as one of their first acts in government, the Nationalists will not be reintroducing charges to help pay for the new crossing.
So the scheme is being seen as a major test for the SNP’s Scottish Futures Trust.
And in the background, there are still questions being asked about whether the new crossing is really necessary.Lawrence Marshall, former chairman of the Forth Estuary Transport Authority, which looks after the bridge, claimed earlier this month the existing bridge could last for another 80 years after signs that attempts to halt the corrosion are working.

Hamish Macdonell - Union rules

HOW times have changed for Britain's unions.
Dave Watson, Unison's Scottish organiser, is currently giving evidence to Holyrood's Finance Committee on public sector pay.
During an intricate and not entirely riveting session he did, though, let slip a little insight into the modern way deals are negotiated.
"There were no beer and sandwiches, but we did get a nice choccy biscuit at St Andrew's House (Scottish Government headquarters)," he said.
"Although," he added, "That wasn't so bad. I have been at negotiations where we didn't even get a cup of coffee."
Times really are tough, it seems.
ends

Gerri Peev: Darling calls for Dave to bring it on

ALISTAIR Darling has just given an entertaining speech at the Press Gallery lunch (yes really, he can be cutting). But just after he disarmed everyone with a barrage of jokes, including one about driving past RBS HQ and thinking: "I own that" (no actually, Chancellor, WE own that), he launched into a full-scale assault.

His attack was unsurprisingly on David Cameron who has been equally vocal in tearing strips of Gordon Brown's borrowing binge but a little more silent on his great plan. The Tory leader this morning called for an immediate general election to give voters a choice. And the Chancellor seemed to square up to him.

He contrasted Barack Obama's election slogan of "yes we can" to the Conservatives "no we can't" and said the dividing lines for the electorate would be clear ahead of the next election...But before we could start booking our places on the party battle buses, he stressed the government was getting on with tackling the economic crisis rather than plotting an election campaign.

Hamish Macdonell - money, money, money

EVERYBODY in the parliament is aware of the main business of the week, taking place tomorrow, the publication of the Scottish Government's transport package for the next ten years or so.
The key issue is the replacement Forth crossing, how much it will cost and, crucially, where the government is going to get the money from. Is it to be financed out of the block grant (hugely expensive and unlikely), the PFI (massively unpopular with the SNP) or by the Scottish Future Trust (untried and untested and subject of intense criticism)?
But there is another event tomorrow which will be more for political anoraks but is nonetheless important - the Finance Committee's report into the Scottish Government budget plans for next year.
This will not make amendments or anything else but it will set the agenda for the budget discussions and, importantly, it will start the intense budget process which will see bartering and brinkmanship from now until February as the SNP tries to concede as little as possible and the other parties try to get the government to accept as much as possible.
ends

George Kerevan: whistleblowing

I was listening to my erstwhile comrade Nigel Griffiths MP (Lab, Edinburgh South) on the radio this morning. Nigel was in full ranting mode against those MPs of all parties who are up in arms (understandably) over the heavy-handed police raid on the House of Commons office of Tory shadow minister Damian Green. The latter has been leaking information from a civil servant on Home Office bungles over immigration so the Government is feeling embarrassed. Nigel feels Mr Green had it coming.

Nigel and I were councillors together on the old Edinburgh District during the 1980s. He is a clever man and never, ever rants accidentally. I wonder if by this excessive display loyalty, Nigel was trying to attract the attention of the Labour Front Bench.

Can this be the same Nigel Griffiths who voted for the Public Interest Disclosure Act 1998, one of New Labour’s early pieces of legislation, designed to protect whistleblowers from loosing their jobs?

Or is this the Nigel Griffiths who stood up in Parliament as a minister and said: “It is in everyone's interest to ensure that there is as much public disclosure as is practical.” (Hansard, 11 Feb 2004, column 468WH)

Gerri Peev: OECD warns of bogus memo

Just had this email from the OECD's press office:

OECD has been informed of a text dated 21 November 2008 purporting to be a “confidential memo” from OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría to the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Gordon Brown, commenting on the outlook for the U.K. economy. This text is a hoax and does not reflect the views of OECD or of Mr Gurría.

One wonders what it could say? UK heading for massive job losses and catastrophic recession? We are already nearly there although not nearly at the bottom...it would take a lot to shock us now. Perhaps it asserts that it is partly the PM's fault (which no one believes surely)...

Gerri Peev: Exile Hamilton on track for award from PM

Just been to the Downing Street Monday morning Lobby where we were told that Gordon Brown would be presenting an award to Lewis Hamilton today. Andy Sparrow of the Guardian asked him what he was getting the prize for: certainly not for his direct contribution to the British Exchequer. For charming as that smile is, there is no doubt that the young Mr Hamilton lives in Switzerland, largely so he does not have to pay taxes here. The PM's spokesman sidestepped questions about whether he believed a high achievers raised in Britain should stay here to contribute, pointing out that Brown was merely presenting the award. Given the cash challenges facing Formula One, maybe Hamilton would not be that much of a cash cow for the Chancellor anyway in the new future. Fittingly, the awards ceremony is taking place at Cafe Royale, the iconic Picadilly play pen which is set to close after 150 years.

David Maddox: For Foulkes Sake (2)

By George he's at it again. As promised the regular contributions of Foulkesisms from Lord George Foulkes, Baron of Cumnock, one of Holyrood's most colourful and straight-talking MSPs.
Not satisifed with his destruction of BBC Scotland in a broadcasting debate on Thursday describing it as "parochial" and "pretty poor" amongst other things, but he has had another go at the Corporation in the Sunday papers.
Now he says that the BBC is "SNP biassed." This has puzzled the SNP somewhat.
This is the same BBC Scotland which has a prominant employee married to Scottish Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott and a presenter who used to be a Labour councillor, the Nationalists have privately pointed out.
Admittedly John Swinney is also married to a BBC employee, but SNP members have long made plain their feelings that BBC Scotland and Labour are too cosy by far.
All this is just further evidence on how high the stakes are becoming in Scotland in what now must be seen as the long run-up to a general election.
Most political journalists in Holyrood are getting increasing numbers of anguished calls and e-mails from the parties as they try to put pressure on us to put their message above others.

David Maddox: Scottish Parliament building

Whilst it looks good, there always seem to be constant reminders about why the Scottish Parliament building so often fails to come up to scratch - today being no exception.
The heating has failed in the Scotsman office inthe media tower, the lights keep turning themselves out and over the weekend workmen have been trying to sort out the wooden attachments to the outside of the building that always looked like they were on special offer at B&Q and after just five years or so appear to be in a parlous state.
You really think that the place would have been in better shape for £415 million of public cash.

Kenny Farquharson: Tavish Scott on more powers

Tavish Scott, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, wrote an excellent article for today's Scotland on Sunday that we were unable to fit in the paper on a very busy news day.

It's available on the SoS website, but is a little hard to find, so I thought I would reproduce it here. It deserves a wider airing.

The Lib Dems are certainly the ones to watch in the whole Calman process of deciding what new powers Holyrood should have.

Here's the piece...

TAVISH SCOTT:

Recently we've seen a return to politics on a grand scale. In the Pre-Budget Report big choices were made. VAT down here. Top rate tax up there. Previously we might have seen Gordon Brown put pensions up by just 75p, or he would tinker with the economic cycle to make his Golden Rule seem a bit more plausible. Compared to that, the actions we are seeing now are revolutionary.

And I think this changes the way the debate on new powers for the Scottish Parliament will run from now on. The economic events of the last couple of months convince me that people will want to see more lively and responsive government at all levels. That has big implications for the work of the Calman Commission on the future of devolution.

As the economy tumbles, as tens of thousands of bank jobs are put at risk, as home repossession becomes a real risk for thousands, people in Scotland aren't much impressed by a Scottish Government that varies its Budget by just 0.3% to respond. I am not sure there are many people who find it a sympathetic sight to have a Scottish First Minister apparently without the levers - or gumption - to react to a crisis.

The old argument from the do-nothing brigade has gone out of the window. They used to tell us that Scotland shouldn't have any more powers because it might interfere with the Golden Rule on the economy, or bring some other calamity. That was before the Golden Rule went out of the window.

I have argued for Scottish controls over different kinds of taxation. We would gain proper accountability for our Scottish Government rather than a Scottish Parliament relying on an annual handout from another parliament.

And, perhaps, powers for the Scottish Government to borrow money are right in the frame. Whenever I go to visit engineering or construction companies or architects and planners they all tell me the same thing. Their industry is in trouble because the Scottish Government simply isn't getting new projects moving.

People used to say that the old Barnett formula offered stability and predictability. But, facing economic and financial shocks, that all looks a bit arbitrary and wooden right now. Who could have predicted that a log jam in health service building projects in England would mean a compulsory reduction in capital investment in Scotland? And that it would come just at the moment when Scottish industry needs it most, when value for money might be the best it's ever going to be, and when tens of thousands of construction jobs are at stake.

So this is where the Calman Commission need to focus. Look at the economic landscape. Look at how governments have had to react around the world. Be convinced that Scotland would benefit from a Government and a Parliament able to exercise lively and responsive government when we need it most. Government needs to be there for a crisis. And it needs the tools to do the job.

David Maddox: SNP ride to the Speaker's defence?

You can tell we're heading into the yuletide period because this is a remarkably sparce Sunday for politics.
The two main political items in the Sunday papers were Lord Mandelson's attempts to bully the Merger Action Group to drop their case against the Lloyds/ HBOS deal and Speaker Michael Martin insisting that he intends to "go on and on" in his current position despite the the fiasco over the arrest of Tory MP Damien Green.
We all know what happened to the Iron Lady when she announced she would go on and on, but it seems Speaker Martin is getting some support from surprising quarters.
On Friday I had lunch with Angus Robertson, the SNP's leader in Westminster. Now we all know that there is little love lost between Scottish Labour and the Nationalists, both parties would rather work with the Tories than with each other.
But, whilst acknowledginging Mr Martin is in deep trouble, Mr Robertson launched a stoic defence of the embattled Speaker whom he said had been the victim of a long class driven campaign by snobs who resented a boy from the back streets of Glasgow taking one of the highest offices in the land.
He also said that unlike some previous Speakers, Michael Martin always called the Nationalists to speak on statements and gave them a very fair hearing in the Commons. Added to that he said he was wonderful at conducting parliamentary events for visitors adding a really personal and moving touch to them.
In a weekend where a Labour MP has called for his resignation, it appears Mr Martin may then have friends in some less than expected paces.

Kenny Farquharson: HQ memories

Are there any SNP members out there who have fond - or less than fond - memories of the old North Charlotte Street HQ?

Or, for that matter, the soon-to-be vacated McDonald Road HQ?

Why not share your anecdotes with us using the comments feature on this post.

Kenny Farquharson: There goes the neighbourhood

Looks like The Steamie is to get some new neighbours.

The SNP announced tonight that its party headquarters is moving to a swish new office block in Jackson's Close, just around the corner from the Scottish Parliament.

The new premises, in Gordon Lamb House, is directly across the road from the HQ of Scotsman Publications.

No doubt that nice Peter Murrell, the SNP chief executive, will be popping round soon to ask The Steamie for a cup of sugar.

The party is flitting early in the new year from its current base in McDonald Road - an uninspiring industrial unit near Leith Walk that has been its home for the past eight years.

It will not be missed.

Those of us with longer memories (i.e. the elderly hacks from the pre-devolution Scottish political press corps) remember the wonderful old SNP base in North Charlotte Street in a rambling suite of high-ceilinged rooms that was once a secretarial school.

Those offices were sold for a reputed £300,000 to help pay off debts the Nationalists ran up in their failed bid for power in the 1999 Scottish Parliament election.

They were subsequently converted into luxury flats. I bet the new owners can still smell Mike Russell's cigar smoke, so deeply embedded in the walls it must be from his time as the party's chief executive.

Scotland on Sunday cartoon

Eddie Barnes: Sir Alex back home

Sir Alex Ferguson was in Glasgow last night at a glitzy sports awards event, organised by Sportscotland and the Sunday Mail paper. He received a lifetime achievement award from his close friend Walter Smith, and spoke well afterwards about the importance of ambition in the pursuit of sporting excellence.

The table arrangements at the affair told an interesting story. First Minister Alex Salmond was seated at the top table alongside Sir Robert Smith, the chair of the Commonwealth 2014 games, and a member of Salmond's council of economic advisers. But Fergie - the undoubted star of the night - was seated not there, but on the table behind, alongside Labour's Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy and Labour supporter and Fridge Magnate (I love that joke) Willie Haughey.

I wonder why? All we can say is this: planning the seating arrangements for family-at-war wedding receptions is as nothing compared to the secret loathings of Scottish public life.

David Maddox: Economic advisors' Glasgow kiss

Today's obviously the day for Glasgow. Just been to the release of the first annual report by the Council of Economic Advisors, set up by First Minister Alex Salmond. They came up with the startling revelation that Glasgow is "underperforming" economically and that there are too many people claiming benfits there. Something needs to be done, said former RBS chief Sir George Mathewson, who chairs the council. Unfortunately, they did not quite seem to know what what could be done for Scotland's largest city beyond locally driven regeneration.
There were some interesting recommendations in their report on the wider economy, but you will have to buy a Scotsman tomorrow to find out about them.

David Maddox: Darling to woo Glasgow East? The answer

Just had a Labour spindoctor on the phone about the Chancellor's visit to Glasgow East.
"It's not what you think," he said. "Although obviously Glasgow east will be a key target in the next general election whenever that is."
He added: "Remember Margaret (Curran, the defeated by-election candidate who has just announced she will stand again) made a commitment in the by-election that win or lose she will bring Alistair Darling to ther constituency to hear the concerns of local people. That's what's happening today, although it will be a quick visit."
From what I remember of the Fort shopping centre in Easterhouse, the first place I went to during the by-election, Mr Darling may need to pencil in a bit more time. There were many shoppers there who had given up on Labour at the time and the relative poverty was underlined by the centre's propensity of pound, charity and loan shops.
But if things get to heavy for the Chancellor there is a shiny Labour Party office there for him to take cover in.

Ian Swanson - Chancellor's frustrations

Alistair Darling must experience numerous frustrations as he tries to sort out the economy - but the Chancellor also shares the day-to-day irritation of many Edinburgh residents at the delays and disruption caused by the tram works - as he makes clear in an interview in today's Evening News.
“I went to collect someone from Haymarket station a couple of weeks ago,” he recalls. “And it took me about 40 minutes to get from one end of Morrison Street to the other.
“I'm not going to be a back-seat driver, but all I can say is it must be possible to manage the roadworks better.
“As Chancellor I want people to be going into to shops any buying goods. There are all these posters up in shops in the middle of Edinburgh saying VAT's been cut and I'm keen to encourage them to go and spend their money.”

Ian Swanson - Darling's upbeat message

CHANCELLOR Alistair Darling had an upbeat message for Edinburgh business leaders when he spoke at a dinner organised by the Chamber of Commerce at the EICC last night.
He argued the financial sector would recover and with Edinburgh second only to London as a banking centre, the city had great opportunities ahead.
"Make no mistake, there is a difficult year ahead,” he said. “But the world economy will recover. It is expected by some to double over the next 20 years.
“And I am confident that, as part of the UK, the Scottish financial services sector will continue to succeed because of its capacity to innovate, safeguard investments and improve its operations. “Here in Edinburgh, it has been a world financial centre for over 300 years. It has many successful, vibrant businesses.
“Ours is an adaptable, open, cosmopolitan city. Let’s be confident that we can deal with the problems we face and let’s be confident about out future.”
Some might label Mr Darling's comments over-optimistic. But perhaps the Chancellor's analysis is worth listening to. After all, he was the one who told us in the summer we were facing the worst economic downturn in 60 years and was slated for saying so.

David Maddox: Darling to woo Glasgow East?

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, is in Glasgow today for a couple of engagements, the second of which is to meet "community leaders" at the Fort shopping centre in the city's east end.
Now you don't need a long memory to remember that Glasgow East was the scene of a particularly humiliating night in recent Labour history when the Nationalist John Mason won the by-election and overturned a massive majority to become the constituency's first non-Labour MP.
Is it a coincidence that just yesterday Margaret Curran, the MSP defeated by Mr Mason in the by-election, announced she was to stand again at the general election?
Could it be that Gordon Brown has sent his Chancellor up to woo the people of Glasgow East?
If the answer to the second question is "yes" then the SNP are feeling quite relaxed about it.
"Darling was voted most boring politician of the year two years running," one noted SNP spindoctor told me last night.

David Maddox: C.Dif strikes again

There is a good deal of self congratulation going on in Holyrood at the moment.
The Scottish Government have finally agreed that C.Dif statistics should be produced on a hospital by hospital basis rather than a health board by health board one. The importance of is that it means failing hospitals can no longer hide in successful health board.
For example the stats for Vale of Leven Hospital (where 18 people's were C.Dif related and where all the fuss began), were masked a little by an altogether rosier picture for the entire Greater Glasgow and Clyde Health Authorty.
So obviously the SNP are pleased with themselves for being the ones who made this important change.
Labour have put out a press release claiming that it was their pressure that done it. And the Tories (who in fact want the figures to be ward by ward) say it was in fact they who highlighted the issue.
Getting political capital for something is what parties have to do, but in this case the patients are probably the real winners.

Hamish Macdonell - Second time lucky

MARGARET Curran has just announced she is to stand for Westminster at the next election, for Glasgow East, the seat she lost in this year's high-profile by-election.
Ms Curran stands a very good chance of unseating the SNP candidate John Mason in the election and gaining some, limited, revenge for the disastrous by-election defeat for Labour which precipatated the most serious problem for Gordon Brown of his premiership.
"I am a fighter. I said during the by-election that if you want a job done properly, ask a busy woman to do it. There is a job to be done in the East End of Glasgow and that’s why I am putting my name forward again," she said.
ends

Hamish Macdonell - Hovercrafts

ITS nice to know that Scottish Government officials seem immune from a sense of irony.
An announcement was made today of the launch of a special, emergency Red Cross hovercraft in Moray, commissioned to help in crisis times of flooding.
"The event will take place weather permitting," said the official, without even a hint of a smile.
ends

Hamish Macdonell - Fun with Sir Sean

NEVER let it be said that the Tories pass up an opportunity to have a dig at Scotland's most famous absentee Scotsman and Nationalist, Sir Sean (Bahamas) Connery.
Former Tory leader David McLetchie took the opportunity in a debate this morning to praise the James Bond actor for taking part in the Homecoming advert for VisitScotland.
The he added: "I am sure we would all look forward to the permanent homecoming of Sir Sean Connery and no one more so than John Swinney, in that the resumption of tax residence in Scotland by Sir Sean would go a long way to plugging the gaping financial hole in his local income tax plans. Could Sir Sean once again ride to the rescue of the Scottish National Party in its hour of financial crisis? On this occasion I don’t think so, but you never know."
Ouch.

George Kerevan: interest rate at 2 per cent

The Bank of England has cut interest rates to 2 per cent. The last time this happened was on 26 October 1939, which tells you something about the emergency.


Interest rates stayed at 2 per cent until 8 November 1951, when they were raised to 2.5 per cent by the incoming government of Winston Churchill.

David Maddox: Holyrood and the police

Not to be outdone by their colleagues in Westminster, we have just learnt at the back end of First Minister's questions that MSP want their own protacol on when and how police should be allowed to search their offices and arrest them.
This is of course MSPs trying to spread the continuing furor over the arrest of Damien Green, the Tories' immigration, spokesman by the Old Bill in Westminster.
In the exhanges with labour leader Iain Gray, First Minister Alex Salmond made a quip about how his Justice Secretary, Kenny MacAskill, will not be calling in the police to arrest oppositon MSPs. The unspoken meaning was "unlike the Labour government in Westminster."
Mike Rumbles, the Lib Dems' chief whip in Holyrood, made a point of order at the end of FMQs repeating a request he made to Alex Fergusson, the Presiding Officer, that he should make a statement and issue his guidance, as was done by Speaker Michael Martin yesterday.
Apparently Mr Fergusson is considering the matter.
There was a further intervention by former Labour First minister Jack McConnell asking that the guidance is given as a statement to the full parliament.

GEORGE KEREVAN: Banana Republic

I notice in the small print of Gordon Brown’s deal with the banks - to allow hard-pressed middle class families to defer paying interest in their mortgages - that it will cost the Government another £1 billion it doesn’t have.

The scheme is fair enough – a runaway cycle of repossessions and forced house sales will only send property values crashing even further, adding to the threat of permanent deflation. However, there are dangerous consequences to the way the Government is making new spending promises by the day.

When the Government borrows money it sells bonds. Institutions and funds buying such bonds need to take out insurance against default. This insurance is called a credit default swap, or CDS.

In the long forgotten days when Gordon Brown was still preaching the virtues of prudence (i.e. last February) it cost a mere £8,000 to insure a £10 million UK Government bond against default over five years. This was because no one ever considered for a moment that the British Government would fail to meet a debt obligation.

But to insure that £10 million bond today will cost you £110,000. This is not only an all-time high, it rates Britain’s creditworthiness. The cost of taking out insurance cover on British Government debt is rising faster than for any other major economy.

In fact, it now costs more to insure against Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling defaulting than it does to insure against Lloyds TSB not meeting its liabilities. Did anyone mention banana republic?

David Maddox: For Foulkes Sake (1)

MSPs have this morning been debating the parlous state of broadcasting (and the media in general) in Scotland which has allowed the Steamie to bring the first in what should be a regular series of Foulkesisms by Labour Lothians MSP Lord George Foulkes (pictured).
Baron Foulkes of Cumnock made a very colourful speech in which he lambasted the quality of BBC Scotland.
"Just take a few examples," he said. "Listen in the morning. Switch from Good Morning Scotland – and that awful, parochial, kailyard stuff – to the Today programme with erudite people, incidentally who went to Keith Academy, like James Naughtie appearing."
He went on: "Look also in the evening at Drivetime with Abeer McIntyre whining away or turn on your radio, switch it over, to Radio 4 and you hear mellifluous wit and wisdom of Scotsman Eddie Mair."
He claimed the most "astonishing example" came on yesterday's Reporting Scotland when newsreader Jackie Bird presented a story about BBC presenters, including herself, who had "limited" medical information disclosed by a Fife doctor.
"We almost had Jackie Bird interviewing Jackie Bird about this astonishingly parochial thing," he said.
It should be said that there was much concern raised about STV potentially disappearing and BBC Scotland reducing staff in the debate general. But it was interesting that in these difficult times no MSP (not even Lord Foulkes) looked at the issue that a mammoth state funded media outlet (the BBC) is actively crowding out a struggling market on lots of different platforms. STV and other commercial interests have a difficult battle on their hands on the TV, radio and the web against such odds.

David Maddox: Iraq stamps

An interesting motion has been put down in Holyrood by Nationalist MSP Aileen Campbell. She is supporting a campaign for stamps to be issued with the faces of the military personel who have lost their lives in Iraq.
The motion is timed for the powerful Queen and Country exhibition by Steve McQueen, which has mocked up stamps with the faces of the dead soldiers faces on them and is currently on show at the Scottish National Gallery of Modern Art in Edinburgh. Mr McQueen is campaigning to persuade Royal Mail to actually issue his stamps.
It all goes to show that whilst other major issues such as bank collapses and the economic crisis have pushed the war well down the political agenda it still remains a niggling issue that resonates in Scottish and UK politics today.

Ian Swanson - Taxing debate

The Scottish Parliament will be debating the SNP's plans for Local Income Tax again this morning - thanks to a Tory motion.
The Tories are urging the Scottish Government to ensure that when it introduces legislation to reform local government taxation, the scope of the Bill will be wide enough to allow members to debate and vote on all options, including reform of the council tax, a land value tax and a locally-set LIT as well as the SNP's own proposals.
Predictably, the SNP's amendment declares the council tax discredited and calls for it to be abolished in favour of LIT.
There is still some time to go before any Bill is likely to be brought forward, far less voted on and it remains to be seen whether the SNP can build a majority to get it passed.
The signs are they will probably win support from the Lib Dems by compromising on the question of councils setting their own tax rate. But the Greens, and potentially Margo MacDonald, would still be needed to get the Bill through.
The Greens' favoured local tax system is a land tax and they hope the SNP might be willing to incorporate some element of that into the new system.
Labour has said the current system of council tax must be changed, but it has yet to come up with an alternative.
Local taxation is always a vexed issue and a minefield for would-be reformers. The puzzle is why politicians want to spend so much time talking about it.

Ross Lydall The festive season hits Westminster

Phew, what a hectic 24 hours. First the Christmas bash at the Irish Embassy (famed for last year's "mugging" of the Bishop of Southwark after he became over-acquainted with the red wine - Google and enjoy), then the Queen's Speech, followed by drinks at 11 Downing St tonight with the Chancellor.
Oh yes, and the small matter of the Speaker's admission that the police had raided Tory MP Damian Green's office without a warrant, and the Prime Minister's back-of-a-P45 plan to protect the middle classes from having their homes repossessed.
Two old faces were to be seen doing the social rounds. David Cairns, the former Scotland Office minister, was on good form at the Irish Embassy do. It appears he is now ready to re-enter public life after being exterminated by the PM's counter-insurgency squad after raising concerns about the Brown Government's direction. Then at No11, the Scottish press pack ran into one of its own, Brian Wilson, the Blairite former energy minister.
Mr Cairns joked that he was soon to appear on a politics programme on STV. But rather than being called upon to explain Government policy, he now gets to join the band of former politicos who pass comment on the current incumbents and moan about how much better it was in their day.
How long, though, before Mr Cairns makes a return to Government? He is well liked and, more importantly, respected for his ability. Even Jim Murphy, who today called for the SNP to-co-operate with Westminster on areas of overlapping interest in relation to the new bills in the Queen's speech, praised his past contributions.
Enemies of Gordon know not to hold their breath. But it strikes me that if the Prime Minister can find it in his heart to forgive Lord Mandelson, surely he can make the comparatively minor step and allow Mr Cairns to atone for his sins. Like the Scotland football team, Scottish Labour is not overburdened with talent, and Mr Cairns should be a guaranteed pick for any PM - should be wish to re-enter the fray, of course. Who said Malawi?

Scotsman cartoon

Gerri Peev: The rules on Commons raid

HERE is the legal ruling on whether or not the police needed a warrant. It seems they didn't because Commons officials acquiesced so readily to police requests:

Searches conducted on a consensual basis do not require a warrant - Pace Code B sets out the procedure for such a search:

5.1 Subject to paragraph 5.4, if it is proposed to search premises with the consent of a person entitled to grant entry the consent must, if practicable, be given in writing on the Notice of Powers and Rights before the search. The officer must make any necessary enquiries to be satisfied the person is in a position to give such consent.

5.2 Before seeking consent the officer in charge of the search shall state the purpose of the proposed search and its extent. This information must be as specific as possible, particularly regarding the articles or persons being sought and the parts of the premises to be searched. The person concerned must be clearly informed they are not obliged to consent and anything seized may be produced in evidence. If at the time the person is not suspected of an offence, the officer shall say this when stating the purpose of the search.

5.3 An officer cannot enter and search or continue to search premises under paragraph 5.1 if consent is given under duress or withdrawn before the search is completed.

5.4 It is unnecessary to seek consent under paragraphs 5.1 and 5.2 if this would cause disproportionate inconvenience to the person concerned.

Members’ offices within the Parliamentary Estate are not their own. The search of such offices would be undertaken by the police under the authority of the Serjeant at Arms. In the circumstances of a criminal investigation, the Serjeant at Arms would consult the Speaker before a search occurs. In Mr Green’s case the Serjeant at Arms consented to the search of his Westminster office and no warrant was therefore required.[

If no consent had been provided, the police would have either had to rely on their search powers under section 18 of the Police and Criminal Evidence Act 1984 (PACE) or apply for a search warrant under section 8 of PACE.

Search without warrant under section 18

Under section 18 of the Police and Criminal Evidence Act 1984 (PACE) police have the power to enter and search any premises occupied or controlled by a person who has been arrested for an indictable offence (which covers aiding/abetting misconduct in a public office) and to seize relevant items. No warrant is required. The following procedural requirements apply:

· The search can only be conducted upon or following the arrest of an individual for an indictable offence. From information in the public domain we understand that Mr Green was arrested prior to the search of his Westminster office being carried out, therefore this condition would appear to have been satisfied.

· The search power is available where the police have reasonable grounds for believing that there is evidence on the premises that relates to the offence for which the person has been arrested, or any other indictable offence connected with or similar to that offence (for example the primary offence of misconduct in a public office for which Christopher Galley was arrested).

· An officer of the rank of inspector or above must authorise a section 18 search in writing.

· The authorising officer must make a written record of the grounds for the search and the nature of the evidence sought. If, at the time the record is made, the person who was in occupation or control of the premises at the time of the search is in police detention, the record should be made on that person’s custody record.

· The premises searched must be occupied or controlled by the arrested person. According to Blackstone’s Police Operational Handbook:

Occupied

This is not defined, but refers to premises where the arrested person resides or works and may include occupancy as an owner, tenant, or ‘squatter’.

Controlled

This is not defined, but includes premises in which the arrested person holds some interest, such as owning, renting, leasing, or has use of the premises.

One possible technicality around the use of section 18 in relation to offices on the Parliamentary Estate may be whether a Member is considered to “occupy” or “control” their office given that Members’ offices within the Parliamentary Estate are not deemed to be their own. The definitions above would appear to catch a Member’s office within the Parliamentary Estate in the same way as the office of an ordinary company employee, although there may be scope for legal debate on this point.

Search with a warrant under section 8

If it is not possible to obtain consent or to use the section 18 power to search without a warrant (for example if it is proposed to conduct a search before anyone has been arrested), the police would have to obtain a warrant prior to conducting a search. Media reports suggest that this approach was taken in relation to Mr Green’s constituency office and residential premises.

A search warrant may be issued to a constable who applies to a justice of the peace, following the procedure set out in section 15 of PACE, provided the following conditions are satisfied:

· The justice must be satisfied that there are reasonable grounds for believing that:

1. an indictable offence has been committed (this would cover aiding/abetting misconduct in a public office);

2. there is material on the specified premises which is likely to be of substantial value to the investigation of the offence;

3. the material is likely to be relevant evidence;

4. the material does not consist of items subject to legal privilege, or excluded or special procedure material; and

5. any one or more of the following further conditions applies:

(i) that it is not practicable to communicate with any person entitled to grant entry to the premises;

(ii) that it is practicable to communicate with such a person, but not practicable as regards the person entitled to grant access to the evidence;

(iii) that entry to the premises will not be granted unless a warrant is produced;

(iv) that the purpose of a search may be frustrated or seriously prejudiced unless a constable arriving at the premises can secure immediate entry to them.

General matters regarding searches

Searches of premises (whether with consent, under section 18 of PACE or under warrant) must be conducted in accordance with PACE Code B.

We are not aware of any exceptions or special rules regarding the need for warrants in royal palaces – section 23 of PACE defines “premises” as including “any place” and does not make any particular provision for royal palaces

Hamish Macdonell - post-budget slumbers

THERE have been better debates in the Scottish Parliament than this afternoon's on the pre-budget report - more than a week after the fact.
John Swinney churned out numbers for the SNP, Andy Kerr bolted through his speech as if he was in a race to get it finished and although Derek Brownlee for the Tories was as rousing and caustic as he could be, he suffered the worst indignity of all.
Just when he was at his loudest and most passionate, one of his fellow MSPs fell soundly asleep.
It would be un-gallant to mention the member's name because it could be said that he showed remarkably good taste, falling asleep just when Mr Brownlee had reached his umteenth almost identical attack on Gordon Brown.

David Maddox: Time for Harper to blow his own trumpet

It's amazing what releasing the burden of leadership does for an MSP's social life. Robin Harper, who has just stepped down as the co-convener (joint leader in normal parlance) of the Scottish Greens has just told me over an interesting looking plate of lamb goulash in the Scottish Parliament canteen, that he is to join Edinburgh's famous Really Terrible Orchestra.
The RTO was set up by Sandy McCall Smith in 1995 and has been described by a colleague in Holyrood as "a collection of Edinburgh worthies with musical instruments."
Robin told me that the organisers had been asking him to join the RTO for years.
He added: "I haven't touched my trumpet in eight months, but I have a little more time on my hands now."

Gerri Peev: Queen, cops and the constitution

TRUST Dennis Skinner, the Beast of Bolsover, to inject even more colour into the ridiculous spectacle of the Queen's Speech.
As the silent procession piled into the Commons chamber, the known republican shouted out "any Tory moles in the Palace?" Even the most senior stuffed shirts could not help smiling at that one.

On other constitutional matters, earlier this morning, the acting Met Police chief defended the officers who raided the Commons and constituency offices of Damian Green, along with his homes. Acting Commissioner Sir Paul Stephenson has denied that any politician sought to inflict "improper influence" on his charges. But one does wonder why the police themselves are carrying out an inquiry into their own operation, particularly given the discrediting of the internal serious case review at Haringey over Baby P. Whatever happened to parliamentary sovereignty?

Peter Mandelson (who looks ever so at home in the Lords today amongst all the pomp and ceremony) makes an astute if inflammatory point: the furore could be a smokescreen for the Tories alleged collusion to breach the law. And just where was all the fuss from the Tory side about a police state when Labour aides and even the then PM, Tony Blair, were being grilled by police over the cash for honours scandal?

Sad news from my colleague David Maddox about culls at the Tory press office. It is by far the slickest of any of the party press offices and its press officers are more often than not helpful. Not so long ago staff at Tory HQ were the envy of other party workers as they were receiving bonuses. Now it's P45s.

David Maddox: Tories credit crunched

It appears that no corner of our society is now immune to the credit crunch (with perhaps the exception of the army in deference to my colleague Gerri's blog). According to ConservativeHome, it seems that even the Conservatives are having to lay off between 16 and 24 staff at their London HQ. There will also be a pay and recruitment freeze.
It sounds like the Tories are suffering the same fate as other organisations, particularly charities, which rely heavily on donations. In times of belt tightening donations are far less forthcoming.
Ramsay Jones, the Conservative's chief Scottish spindoctor has just been in and told me that the six and a half Scottish staff are all safe.

Hamish Macdonell - Sport and politics?

ONE interesting little tibit from the sports pages today which will spill over into politics.
It ahs emerged that the Scottish Football Association is in tentative negotiations with its Welsh and Northern Irish counterparts over a joint bid for the 2016 European football championships.
This should be a gift for the nationalists but many will remember Scotland's ill-fated joint bid with Ireland for the 2008 tournament.
This leaves them with a dilemma, their hearts will say 'go for it' and they will want to throw everything behind it, their heads will say, 'wait a bit' and see how far it goes before committing government support.
Should be interesting to see how this develops. Watch this space ...

Ian Swanson - Still waiting for Calman

The Calman commission's interim report is understandably overshadowed in this morning's papers by coverage of Peter Tobin's conviction for the appalling murder of Vicky Hamilton. Indeed, given the lack of solid recommendations from Calman, it is perhaps surprising the commission has got as much attention as it has today.
Sir Kenneth and his colleagues were never going to produce firm proposals at this stage, but their comments at yesterday's press conference were even more cautious and non-commital than the report itself.
The issues seized on today are the ruling-out of full fiscal autonomy - on the grounds, first put forward by the independent group advising on tax powers, that it would not be consistent with maintaining the Union - and the hints that Scotland could lose its veto over a new generation of nuclear power stations.
The commission has listed areas it plans to examine further to see if there is a case for devolving powers to Holyrood, including broadcasting, energy policy, animal health, firearms and misuse of drugs.
But we are going to have to wait for the commission's full report sometime next year to find out what they think.

Gerri Peev: One industry that won't tank in the recession

WANT big bonuses? Forget Goldman Sachs and join the Army. At least, that's what the forces recruiting sergeants are wanting to spin to anyone feeling slightly crunched by the (lack of) credit.

An ad in a national newspaper today bears the big banner: "WE STILL OFFER BIG BONUSES". It goes on to boast that soliders enjoy six weeks' paid holiday, free healthcare, a competitive pension and subsidised rent. For good measure it adds: "Most of all, you'll have the chance to make a positive impact on the lives of people all over the world. There can be few greater rewards than this." It invites interested candidates to text 'Recruit' to a number (I won't give that out. They can take out an ad in The Scotsman first). The MoD can no doubt save on advertising in the near future though: recruitment levels for the military all round are bound to surge with the economic downturn.

I remember having dinner a year or so ago with a minister who bemoaned the fact that the then buoyant economy and rampant job choices made it a struggle to entice youngsters into the armed forces. With Jock Stirrup, the Chief of Defence Staff, now making clear that more troops will be needed in Afghanistan, the renewed interest in the armed forces as a career option will be welcome.

Paradoxically, the more "progress" Nato makes in the country, the more troops it needs to guard the newly pacified territory. As the Defence Chief himself said: "We have to be very careful in our choice of words when talking about Afghanistan. Terms like winning and victory have no place in the lexicon there."

Hamish Macdonell - GB goes into cyberspace

ALWAYS one to follow The Scotsman's lead, Gordon Brown is about to go into cyberspace too.
Just a day after The Scotsman launched The Steamie, it has emerged that the Prime Minister is to stream a special Scottish video feed on the web.
So, just in case the Queen's Speech wasn't enough, or the debate afterwards, which usually lasts several days, or the party political broadcast by the Prime Minister tomorrow night, or the responding PPBs in the days to follow, just in case there is anybody out there who still wants more, the ebullient Mr Brown will put a video of his thoughts on the Scottish Labour website too.
Can't wait? Thought not.

The Steamie: RSS feed now available

In response to a number of requests from readers of The Steamie, we're pleased to announce that this blog is now available by RSS feed.

You'll find the link on the right of this screen, just below the link to The Steamie Wall.

Now you've no excuse for not keeping up with the latest news and gossip from the world of Scottish politics.

If you've any other suggestions on how we can make The Steamie work better for you, please let us know.

You can leave a comment on The Steamie Wall, or email kenny.farquharson@scotlandonsunday.com

David Maddox: No Nat Nat Assembly

Some eyebrows have been raised that the SNP have cancelled their National Assembly due to be held this Sunday (December 7) at just five days notice. The Nationalists' National Assembly is supposed to be where members can all get together to develop policies.
It has cruelly been suggested that a "one issue party set on independence" does not need to spend much time talking about policy.
But the truth, according to the SNP, is that they want to give more members a chance to have their say. So the National Assembly will apparently be merged into eight regional hustings for the party to rank its European Parliament candidates.

David Maddox: Sir Ken vs Wee Eck

After the distinctly unimpressed reception that Holyrood's press pack have given to Sir Kenneth Calman and his Commission's interim report on what should happen to devolution, Labour spindoctors have felt the need to ride to Sir Ken's defence.
They have put out a little comparison between the Calman Commission (CC) and the SNP government's rival National Conversation (NC) - known to critics as the chatroom for cybernats - just to show why Sir Ken and his friends are apparently doing a much better job.

Written consultation:
NC: 1 consultation paper
CC: 2 consultation exercises

Responses to written consultation:
NC: Short comments on the blog
CC:Yes: all submissions on website

Academic evidence:
NC: No
CC: Yes - UCL and IEG

Formal oral evidence:
NC: No
CC: Yes: 38 sessions in public, webcast for most, transcript on website

Informal oral evidence:
NC: Unknown
CC: Yes - agreed notes available online

Direct public engagement:
NC: 4 ticketed events: focus on speeches, mixed feedback, footage and summaries on website
CC: 7 open public events: focus on listening, excellent feedback, summaries to be added to website this week Event with school in Dundee

Website:
NC: Separate statistics for the national conversation pages not published
CC: 70,000 over 5 months

Questionnaire:
NC: No
CC: Yes - popular on website, completed at public engagement events, public have requested hard copy questionnaires in response to leaflets and returned completed forms

Other e-activity:
NC: Audio visual of launch
CC: Webcast of formal oral evidence sessions, Video message, Facebook

Non e-activity:
NC: None
CC: Leaflet distributed across Scotland: positive take-up of leaflet

Papers:
NC: No
CC: Minutes and relevant papers all on website

Tom Peterkin - the Calman Commission

Much of the political reaction to the publication of the Calman Commission's interim report was predictable. "A substantial and serious body of work" said Iain Gray, the Labour leader. "A damp squip...a constitutional mouse," was the SNP's response. Easily the shortest statement came from Tavish Scott who suggested that a more radical approach is required.
"This report is where Scotland is now," Scott said. "Liberal Democrats want a strengthened Scottish Parliament with the United Kingdom - a real home rule settlement. Calman must now produce a blue print for the future."
More to come from the Lib Dems on this one, methinks.

Hamish Macdonell - Calman (part 2)

MUCH wailing and teeth gnashing in the media at the lack of solid recommendations in the interim Calman report today.
There were never going to be any real conclusions but Calman still managed to dodge almost everything.
One SNP researcher dismissed the commission as "deciding what colour of beige to re-paint the Scottish Parliament".
Only to face the retort from another: "It hasn't got that far, it has only got as far as considering which range of beige colours to consider re-painting the Scottish parliament."
Sir Kenneth Calman did fire an aside at the lack of co-operation from the Scottish Government. John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, wants borrowing powers. This is being looked at by Calman but Swinney has refused to give evidence.
The First Minister's spokesman dodged around this issue and confirmed that the government will not help the commission by giving evidence.
Isn't it amazing how Alex Salmond can lambast Labour for failing to come up with evidence to the consultation on Local Income Tax (FMQs last week) but then the Scottish Government does esactly the same and fails to give evidence to a commission it doesn't like?

Eddie Barnes - The leak, the Speaker, and a hunch from Tam

Speaker Michael Martin will be a busy man today as he drafts his statement on the arrest of Conservative frontbencher Damien Green, expected tomorrow. He is under huge pressure to show that parliament will stand up to the government and the police following the episode. I have a hunch that he might use the occasion not just to defend the decision to allow police to search Mr Green's parliamentary offices, but also to lay down a few markers for MPs on how they should behave in future.

This is based on a conversation I had over the weekend with the former Father of the House Tam Dalyell. Tam - who, I am glad to report, is in fine fettle- has been much sought after for his views on the Green arrest since he too was the recipient of a famous leak, nearly thirty years ago, over the sinking of the General Belgrano during the Falklands war. The leak came in the form of a hand-written postcard, sent to his office by MoD civil servant Clive Ponting, which revealed that the Argentine Navy Cruiser was sailing away from the Falklands and was outside the exclusion zone surrounding the islands when it was sunk by the British sub HMS Conqueror.

Now Tam, as he reminded me, is and was a stickler for procedure. So the idea of punting the explosive contents of this postcard in the direction of the Daily Blatt didn't cross his mind. Rather, he handed it over to the relevant House of Commons Select Committee in the expectation that they would bring the MoD to book (they didn't, but that's another story).

I wonder whether Speaker Martin - a good friend of Tam's - will suggest this to MPs tomorrow as the kind of action they should take in future when in receipt of such leaks? He does after all have motive; mocked as "Gorbals Mick" by what he considers to be a snobbish Westminster press pack, he might be particularly taken with an edict which cuts off a few juicy exclusives to the Fourth Estate. The message to MPs would be thus: publicise leaks on the floor of the house or in committee and you'll get my support, but do it via your favourite newspaper, and you'll end up in the nick.

I should add this is just a hunch: one thing Mr Martin is not doing today is leaking the details of his statement to the press. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to watch the Speaker use this crucial statement tomorrow to aim a sharp dig against the media.

We'll see tomorrow.

David Maddox: Making a meal out of tax cuts

It's nice to know that Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling want to line our pockets with money - coppers that is.
Just had my usual breakfast - a plastic cup full of fruit salad - from Holyrood's canteen and found that the usual cost of £1.20 has been reduced to £1.17. This, of course, is the result of the reduction in VAT from 17.5 per cent to 15 per cent announced by Mr Darling last week. Apparently my £3 lunch will be knocked down by the princely sum of 6p.
I can't help but feel that Messrs Darling and Brown are taking the old adage "watch the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves" a little far.
Apart from adding a little weight to my pocket with jingling copper coins, you have to wonder whether such paltry sums will have much affect at all, especially when shops are already knocking down prices by up to 50 per cent.
The one affect the VAT cut has had -as witnessed by one or two sweaty brows in Holyrood's canteen - is to stress out the poor people who have to reconfigure their tills and reprice their products to keep up with this temporary change.

Ian Swanson - Waiting for Calman

Not long to wait now until we hear what Sir Kenneth Calman and his colleagues have to say about the future of devolution.
His commission, set up earlier this year with the backing of Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories, is publishing its interim report at 10am.
On the radio this morning, Sir Kenneth acknowledged the report was not making any specific recommendations about more powers for Holyrood. But he said it was a “very substantial” report and would set out “priorities and where we need to go next”.
No doubt there will be warm words of support from the politicians who helped set up the commission.
But the parties still need to decide exactly where they stand on the issue of more powers, especially tax powers. The Lib Dems are strongly in favour of further devolution to Holyrood. But since Wendy Alexander’s departure it is not so clear whether Labour is still as enthusiastic. And the Tories remain divided.
Whatever Sir Kenneth might come up with when presents his final report next year, it is the parties’ positions which will be crucial in deciding what happens.

David Maddox: Who rules the waves?

It may be a coincidence that Holyrood has at last been given control of the seas around Scotland, but today's fight has been over its waves.
Iain Gray, Labour's leader in Holyrood, put out a press release at 1.06pm telling Alex Salmond that his £10 million Saltire Prize for the first company to successfully harness Scotland's wave power was "not enough." For those who need reminding this is the prize the First minister launched with great fanfare at the National Geographic Society when he was in America for Scotland Week.
Mr Gray - who was so keen to push his message that he had it sent out again at 1.43pm just to make sure journalists hadn't missed it - demanded that the Scottish Government also sets up a £40 million fund for Scotland's wave and power industry as asked for by the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IME). Apparently Labour in 2006/07 set up the Wave and Tidal Energy Scheme which gave out grants worth £13.9 million and this was then wound up by the Nationalists when they came to office.
Normally, the SNP respond quickly to such attacks, but their response this time took four hours with the lines accusing Mr Gray of "carping" and "making himself look ridiculous."
SNP MSP Rob Gibson is quoted as saying: "Under the 8 years of a Labour-led Executive - during which Iain Gray was a minister - nothing was done to incentivise Scotland's massive marine renewables potential.
"Labour barely scratched the surface. They were and are split from top to bottom on nuclear, and unable to embrace Scotland's clean, green energy potential."
Surprisingly, he forgot to mention Labour's support for nuclear power, but that will no doubt come up another day.

Hamish Macdonell - Calman (part 1)

TOMORROW sees the launch of the first report of the Calman Commission.
There had been hopes that Sir Kenneth would set out some definite views in this first, interim, report, after all he has been taking evidence for months on the future of devolution.
But all that is expected is a series of general themes, setting out the areas the commission will look at in more detail.
It will certainly not give ammunition to the fiscal autonomites by recommending full-scale devolution of fiscal powers to Scotland but it should give those who look closely an indication of where the commission will end up, next summer.
One of those who gave evidence was Andrew Hughes Hallett, an economist. He complained bitterly in Scotland on Sunday that the commission had ignored his views and taken a solidly pro-Labour line.
But I understand that the commission was not as enthusiastic about Mr Hughes Hallett's evidence as he was. There was some chat over lunch among the commission members and they agreed that none had been impressed with Mr Hughes Hallett's evidence on the virtues of 'the more the better' in terms of fiscal powers and small countries.
Watch out for allusions to this in the report tomorrow ...

David Maddox: C.Dif will just not go away

The families of the 18 people whose deaths were related to contracting C.Difficile at the Vale of Leven Hospital have today lodged a petition demanding a public inquiry into what happened.
So as hard as she might try Nicola Sturgeon (pictured), the Health Secretary, cannot shake off the problem of C.Dif and demands for a public inquiry into the possible problem in Scottish hospitals generally and what happened at Vale of Leven specifically.
Unfortunately, despite what the Scottish Government's staticians tried to tell us last with graphs showing a general decline in hospital aquired infections, C.Dif appears to be on the rise in Scotland. According to Labour, the 18 C.Dif related deaths in Vale of Leven could just be the tip of the iceburg.
So given that background the families of the Vale of Leven victims and their supporters appear to have a strong case for a public inquiry.
Ms Sturgeon has a valid point over the fact that the police have now opened a full investigation into the Vale of Leven and that a public inquiry could prove to be an obstacle to due process in potential criminal cases.
However, she is not helped by her own record of regularly calling for public inquiries when in opposition.

Ian Swanson - Stronger drink laws in Scotland?

The debate on more powers for the Scottish Parliament will burst into life again tomorrow with the interim report of the Calman commission.
But evidence of the increasingly divergent paths already being followed by Scotland and England under the existing level of devolution will be displayed in the Queen’s Speech on Wednesday.
According to reports in some newspapers today, the UK government’s list of proposed legislation will include tougher licensing laws, including a ban on certain kinds of promotions - but not the minimum pricing for alcohol, which forms a key part of the SNP’s plans to tackle alcohol misuse here in Scotland.
It’s a fair bet the UK Government won’t be proposing a ban on under-21s buying booze from off-licences either.
We’re still waiting to hear how the Scottish Government will amend its extensive list of proposals in the light of its consultation before coming forward with a bill. The chances are there will be a compromise over the under-21 ban, but Scotland could still end up with significantly tougher laws on alcohol than south of the border.
Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill has come in for a lot of criticism for his proposals.
But whatever you think of them, Mr MacAskill cannot be accused of populism, the charge often made against other SNP policies.